October will be when we start collecting the ADM's from across the state.
Does anyone know the exact date?
The bottom of 4A could be 550 (early estimate)
How could this affect the current 4A D2?
October will be when we start collecting the ADM's from across the state.
Does anyone know the exact date?
The bottom of 4A could be 550 (early estimate)
How could this affect the current 4A D2?
Last edited by SHSBulldog00; 09-26-2021 at 08:05 PM.
Once a Bulldog, Always a Bulldog
Sweeny All Time Record 514-305-28
GATA - A Sweeny Tradition Since 1980
1944, 45, 46, 47, 48, 60, 61, 66, 67, 82, 83, 84, 86, 88, 89, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 2000, 01, 05, 06, 08, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21
I know the 3 RGV area 4A D2 teams are all down in enrollment because of the pandemic (parents choosing to home school, kids transferring to IDEA schools). If that 550 cutoff estimate turns out to be accurate, then for sure Rio Hondo (turned in 550 last realignment) will be dropping down to 3A. Possibly even Raymondville, too. They had 575 last realignment if my memory serves me correct?
That would leave Port Isabel (675 last realignment) as the lone 4A DII team in the entire RGV and will be guaranteed a spot in a district with Coastal Bend area teams unless the Tarpons decide to opt up to 4A D1.
Now, I did ask around with some PI folks, and yes, Port Isabel's number will be down. But I doubt Port Isabel loses 125+ kids between last realignment and now even taking COVID-19 into consideration. Attendance at the high school on the first day of school was down by a very significant margin (word was that about 350 kids showed up) according to one person I spoke to. Many have since come back, but not all. I wouldn't be too surprised if Port Isabel is hovering right around the 600 mark this realignment. If they turn in something below 600 I'll be shocked. But still, I think Port Isabel will still be firmly in 4A D2 next realignment.
Snapshot day has usually been in the last week of October - maybe the last Friday in the past.
You may be right. I do think it's the last week of Oct.
I heard Oct, 27
Using TEA's enrollment #'s for the 20-21 school year and using grades 8 - 11 this is an estimate of 4A-2 Dist 16 snapshot #'s.
Rockport-Fulton - 998 should up to 4A-1
Robstown - 797
Sinton - 655
Ingleside - 648
Port Isabel - 644
Raymondville - 610
CC West Oso - 609
Rio Hondo - 541- may go 3A-1
X
Bishop - 580 may go up to 4A-2
Kingsville King - 884 may go down to 4A-2
Interesting! But I've a feeling a few of these numbers are going to be a little bit lower than your estimate. Primary reason being these were numbers before the pandemic hit. I know enrollments, at least down in the RGV, are down across the entire region. I don't know about the rest of the state, but I'm sure others can provide their input?
However, assuming these numbers turn out to be good, or in the general ballpark of good, that leaves 8 4A DII teams in the Corpus/RGV area. Only difference being remove Rockport and Rio Hondo and replace with Bishop and Kingsville. So I wouldn't be surprised if there's another 8 team D16 4A Div. II for the 22-23 seasons.
Now, if there's a surprise somewhere out there other than possibly Kingsville dropping and Bishop possibly moving up that might split the district into two separate districts, I'm unsure who it could be, at least out of the Corpus area. One possibility is La Grulla dropping from D1 to D2. Rumor mill has it they're below 900 kids now. If the D1/D2 cutoff goes higher as predicted, that may very well drop the Lions into D2. I haven't heard anything yet about the other RGV area D1 teams (Hidalgo, La Grulla) in terms of enrollment numbers, but they are rumored to be down. Probably not down enough to drop them to D2, though.
Last edited by TarponFanInNorthTexas; 09-29-2021 at 01:00 AM.
Ok, I'm using the same trick Stardog did, using the TEA website and I'm finding some really interesting things.
Again, this is an estimate using grades 8-11 for the 20-21 school year.
Rio Grande City Grulla (La Grulla HS) - 798
La Feria - 982
Hidalgo - 1024
Zapata - 1028
Lyford - 471
Progreso - 387 (no information available for their JH, so this number is grades 9, 10, and 11)
Looks like the info I was hearing about La Grulla is correct. They are likely to drop to 4A D2 this next realignment.
Also, forgive me in my previous post. I was having a massive brain fart and got La Feria & La Grulla mixed up. Intended to say La Grulla but ended up thinking La Feria and typed "Lions" instead of "Gators".
Stardog, with regard to La Grulla, they only have 1 Middle school that feeds into that HS, Grulla Middle School.
All the others (Ringgold & Veterans) feed into Rio Grande City HS
That’s how I got that # last night.
I received word this morning Sweeny is in the 670 ish range.
That is a big jump from what others had told me. Looks like the Dog's will be staying 4A D2.
Any Neck fans know if Columbia will drop to D2? They were at 900 last realignment.
If Kingsville, Bishop and Orange Grove all come in to 4A D2 that could possibly send Sinton and Ingleside to a district with Cuero again.