Snapshot Day is Coming

[SHSBulldog00]

October will be when we start collecting the ADM's from across the state.

Does anyone know the exact date?

The bottom of 4A could be 550 (early estimate)

How could this affect the current 4A D2?

[TarponFanInNorthTexas]

Early October will be when we start collecting the ADM's from across the state.

Does anyone know the exact date?

The bottom of 4A could be 550 (early estimate)

How could this affect the current 4A D2?

I know the 3 RGV area 4A D2 teams are all down in enrollment because of the pandemic (parents choosing to home school, kids transferring to IDEA schools). If that 550 cutoff estimate turns out to be accurate, then for sure Rio Hondo (turned in 550 last realignment) will be dropping down to 3A. Possibly even Raymondville, too. They had 575 last realignment if my memory serves me correct?

That would leave Port Isabel (675 last realignment) as the lone 4A DII team in the entire RGV and will be guaranteed a spot in a district with Coastal Bend area teams unless the Tarpons decide to opt up to 4A D1.

Now, I did ask around with some PI folks, and yes, Port Isabel's number will be down. But I doubt Port Isabel loses 125+ kids between last realignment and now even taking COVID-19 into consideration. Attendance at the high school on the first day of school was down by a very significant margin (word was that about 350 kids showed up) according to one person I spoke to. Many have since come back, but not all. I wouldn't be too surprised if Port Isabel is hovering right around the 600 mark this realignment. If they turn in something below 600 I'll be shocked. But still, I think Port Isabel will still be firmly in 4A D2 next realignment.

[stardog]

Snapshot day has usually been in the last week of October - maybe the last Friday in the past.

[TarponFanInNorthTexas]

Snapshot day has usually been in the last week of October - maybe the last Friday in the past.

I thought it was the 1st Monday of the last week of October, which would be the 25th? Maybe I'm wrong....

[stardog]

You may be right. I do think it's the last week of Oct.

[Scoop27]

I heard Oct, 27

[Matthew328]

Oct 29

[stardog]

The last week - Friday - Bingo !!!
I posted on Scoops Corner about 4A-1 - Any thoughts from anyone ?

[arges]

Early October will be when we start collecting the ADM's from across the state.

Does anyone know the exact date?

The bottom of 4A could be 550 (early estimate)

How could this affect the current 4A D2?

Things could get very interesting if the limit goes to 550. Rio Hondo, Mexia, Hillsboro, Orangefield, and Shepherd probably for sure. Possibly Hondo, Iowa Park, Sweeny, Crystal City, Devine and a few more surprises.

[TarponFanInNorthTexas]

Things could get very interesting if the limit goes to 550. Rio Hondo, Mexia, Hillsboro, Orangefield, and Shepherd probably for sure. Possibly Hondo, Iowa Park, Sweeny, Crystal City, Devine and a few more surprises.

I would be shocked if Rio Hondo doesn't drop to 3A.

[stardog]

Using TEA's enrollment #'s for the 20-21 school year and using grades 8 - 11 this is an estimate of 4A-2 Dist 16 snapshot #'s.
Rockport-Fulton - 998 should up to 4A-1
Robstown - 797
Sinton - 655
Ingleside - 648
Port Isabel - 644
Raymondville - 610
CC West Oso - 609
Rio Hondo - 541- may go 3A-1
X
Bishop - 580 may go up to 4A-2
Kingsville King - 884 may go down to 4A-2

[TarponFanInNorthTexas]

Using TEA's enrollment #'s for the 20-21 school year and using grades 8 - 11 this is an estimate of 4A-2 Dist 16 snapshot #'s.
Rockport-Fulton - 998 should up to 4A-1
Robstown - 797
Sinton - 655
Ingleside - 648
Port Isabel - 644
Raymondville - 610
CC West Oso - 609
Rio Hondo - 541- may go 3A-1
X
Bishop - 580 may go up to 4A-2
Kingsville King - 884 may go down to 4A-2

Interesting! But I've a feeling a few of these numbers are going to be a little bit lower than your estimate. Primary reason being these were numbers before the pandemic hit. I know enrollments, at least down in the RGV, are down across the entire region. I don't know about the rest of the state, but I'm sure others can provide their input?

However, assuming these numbers turn out to be good, or in the general ballpark of good, that leaves 8 4A DII teams in the Corpus/RGV area. Only difference being remove Rockport and Rio Hondo and replace with Bishop and Kingsville. So I wouldn't be surprised if there's another 8 team D16 4A Div. II for the 22-23 seasons.

Now, if there's a surprise somewhere out there other than possibly Kingsville dropping and Bishop possibly moving up that might split the district into two separate districts, I'm unsure who it could be, at least out of the Corpus area. One possibility is La Grulla dropping from D1 to D2. Rumor mill has it they're below 900 kids now. If the D1/D2 cutoff goes higher as predicted, that may very well drop the Lions into D2. I haven't heard anything yet about the other RGV area D1 teams (Hidalgo, La Grulla) in terms of enrollment numbers, but they are rumored to be down. Probably not down enough to drop them to D2, though.

[TarponFanInNorthTexas]

Ok, I'm using the same trick Stardog did, using the TEA website and I'm finding some really interesting things.

Again, this is an estimate using grades 8-11 for the 20-21 school year.

Rio Grande City Grulla (La Grulla HS) - 798
La Feria - 982
Hidalgo - 1024
Zapata - 1028
Lyford - 471
Progreso - 387 (no information available for their JH, so this number is grades 9, 10, and 11)

Looks like the info I was hearing about La Grulla is correct. They are likely to drop to 4A D2 this next realignment.

Also, forgive me in my previous post. I was having a massive brain fart and got La Feria & La Grulla mixed up. Intended to say La Grulla but ended up thinking La Feria and typed "Lions" instead of "Gators".

[TarponFanInNorthTexas]

Add Orange Grove to the list. Just checked their numbers through the TEA for Grades 8-11

Orange Grove - 565

Looking through a few more before I call it a night. I'm leaving off those that are obviously going to remain where they are, but will add those that may move up or on the bubble.

Lytle - 545
Llano - 542
Lago Vista - 589

[stardog]

These #'s are from TEA 20-21 school year (in the middle of this covid). It's dated Feb. 2021 but #'s probably came from begining of school year Fall of 2020.
For 4A-1 D-16 : Hidalgo-1024, Zapata-1028, La Feria-982, King-884, and Grulla-918 --- For Grulla was hard to figure out what middle schools fed to the high school.
Others mentioned I found --
Bishop - 580
Orange Grove - 542
Crystal City - 568
Llano - 542
Lago Vista - 589
Lyford - 471, It didn't show middle school
Progresso - I have 2 #'s 378 and 515

I've got all 4A-2 #'s I will list when (if) I have a chance.