WOS87
10-31-2009, 01:33 PM
The projected finishes are primarily based on who's beaten who so far head-to-head. In the case of districts where there are teams that don't have an obvious direct connection of wins and losses to rank them, I used the district power rating which is calculated using the same algorithm I used in my statewide 3A ratings the past 3 years
The number in parentheses is the power rating calculated solely on district games played. All power ratings combined for a district should add up to zero
The difference between power ratings for two teams can be extrapolated as a predicted margin of victory or loss based on prior district game results.
1-3A
The story so far:
Borger beat Levelland by 36
Borger beat Lubbock Cooper by 8
Borger beat Dalhart by 3
Borger beat Perryton by 1
Lubbock Estacado beat Lubbock Cooper by 33
Lubbock Estacado beat Levelland by 31
Lubbock Estacado beat Dalhart by 10
Dalhart beat Levelland by 48
Dalhart beat Lubbock Cooper by 21
Perryton beat Levelland by 32
Perryton beat Lubbock Estacado by 12
Lubbock Cooper beat Perryton by 1
Circular games: Estacado beat Dalhart, Dalhart beat Cooper, Cooper beat Perryton, Perryton beat Estacado
Projected finish:
1. Lubbock Estacado (10.9) - D1
2. Borger (7.4)
3. Dalhart (9.9)
4. Perryton (6.4)
5. Lubbock Cooper (-6.6)
6. Levelland (-28.1)
2-3A
The story so far:
Abilene Wylie beat Breckenridge by 28
Abilene Wylie beat Brownwood by 20
Abilene Wylie beat Snyder by 17
Brownwood beat Sweetwater by 42
Brownwood beat Breckenridge by 38
Brownwood beat Graham by 1
Graham beat Sweetwater by 31
Graham beat Snyder by 14
Graham beat Abilene Wylie by 3
Snyder beat Sweetwater by 52
Snyder beat Breckenridge by 35
Sweetwater beat Breckenridge by 27
Projected finish:
1. Abilene Wylie (22.8) - D1
2. Brownwood (16.2)
3. Graham (20.9)
4. Snyder (14.9)
5. Sweetwater (-17.2)
6. Breckenridge (-22.8)
3-3A
The story so far:
Monahans beat Brownfield by 47
Monahans beat Lamesa by 41
Monahans beat Andrews by 39
Monahans beat Seminole by 28
Andrews beat Midland Greenwood by 16
Andrews beat Lamesa by 2
Midland Greenwood beat Brownfield by 20
Midland Greenwood beat Lamesa by 15
Midland Greenwood beat Seminole by 14
Seminole beat Brownfield by 46
Seminole beat Andrews by 18
Lamesa beat Brownfield by 2
Projected finish:
1. Monahans (30.9)
2. Seminole (6.9)
3. Andrews (-3.3) - D1
4. Midland Greenwood (0.4)
5. Lamesa (-12.6)
6. Brownfield (-22.3)
I'm seeing a 3-way tie between Seminole, Andrews and Greenwood likely.
Andrews beat Greenwood by 16, Greenwood beat Seminole by 14, Seminole beat Andrews by 16. How would the tiebreak work??
4-3A
The story so far:
Fort Stockton beat Tornillo by 63
Fort Stockton beat Fabens by 48
Fort Stockton beat Clint by 32
Fort Stockton beat Pecos by 21
Pecos beat Fabens by 38
Pecos beat Tornillo by 34
Pecos beat Anthony by 31
Fabens beat Anthony by 29
Fabens beat Clint by 6
Clint beat Tornillo by 43
Clint beat Anthony by 19
Anthony beat Tornillo by 1
Projected finish:
1. Fort Stockton (37.5)
2. Pecos (16.1)
3. Fabens (-4.7) - D1
4. Clint (1.6)
5. Anthony (-23.0)
6. Tornillo (-27.2)
5-3A
The story so far:
Bridgeport beat Vernon by 42
Bridgeport beat WF Hirschi by 42
Bridgeport beat Burkburnett by 27
Bridgeport beat Iowa Park by 7
Burkburnett beat Vernon by 34
Burkburnett beat Decatur by 29
Burkburnett beat Iowa Park by 7
Iowa Park beat WF Hirschi by 7
Iowa Park beat Decatur by 6
Vernon beat WF Hirschi by 24
Decatur beat WF Hirschi by 11
Decatur beat Vernon by 7
Projected finish:
1. Bridgeport (25.3)
2. Burkburnett (12.5) - D1
3. Iowa Park (2.3)
4. Decatur (-8.5)
5. Vernon (-12.3)
6. Wichita Falls Hirschi (-19.3)
7-3A
The story so far:
Glen Rose beat Whitney by 37
Glen Rose beat Gatesville by 35
Glen Rose beat West by 17
West beat Hillsboro by 41
West beat China Spring by 4
China Spring beat Whitney by 43
China Spring beat Hillsboro by 31
China Spring beat Glen Rose by 3
Gatesville beat Hillsboro by 39
Gatesville beat Whitney by 10
Gatesville beat West by 10
Whitney beat Hillsboro by 5
Projected finish:
1. China Spring (14.2)
2. Glen Rose (22.8)
3. Gatesville (2.0) - D1
4. West (7.3)
5. Whitney (-18.5)
6. Hillsboro (-27.8)
8-3A
The story so far:
Wimberley beat Burnet by 7
Wimberley beat Llano by 18
Wimberley beat Canyon Lake by 23
Wimberley beat Ingram Moore by 59
Burnet beat Ingram Moore by 64
Burnet beat Liberty Hill by 42
Burnet beat Llano by 14
Burnet beat Fredericksburg by 6
Canyon Lake beat Ingram Moore by 35
Canyon Lake beat Llano by 21
Canyon Lake beat Liberty Hill by 7
Canyon Lake beat Fredericksburg by 7
Liberty Hill beat Wimberley by 2
Liberty Hill beat Fredericksburg by 20
Liberty Hill beat Ingram Moore by 76
Llano beat Fredericksburg by 21
Llano beat Ingram Moore by 62
Fredericksburg beat Ingram Moore by 30
Circular games: Liberty Hill beat Wimberley, Wimberley beat Canyon Lake, Canyon Lake beat Liberty Hill
Projected finish:
1. Wimberley (13.2)
2. Burnet (13.6) - D1
3. Canyon Lake (-0.8)
4. Liberty Hill (2.0)
5. Llano (-1.8)
6. Fredericksburg (-12.6)
7. Ingram Moore (-52.1)
9-3A
The story so far:
Argyle beat Whitesboro by 29
Argyle beat Sanger by 27
Argyle beat Gainesville by 24
Argyle beat Prosper by 3
Prosper beat Whitesboro by 46
Prosper beat Celina by 24
Prosper beat Sanger by 20
Celina beat Gainesville by 39
Celina beat Sanger by 34
Celina beat Whitesboro by 31
Sanger beat Gainesville by 21
Gainesville beat Whitesboro by 3
Projected finish:
1. Argyle (14.0)
2. Prosper (21.5) - D1
3. Celina (13.2)
4. Sanger (-8.0)
5. Gainesville (-20.5)
6. Whitesboro (-20.2)
10-3A
The story so far:
Paris beat Commerce by 63
Paris beat Bonham by 44
Paris beat Anna by 35
Paris beat North Lamar by 13
Van Alstyne beat Commerce by 24
Van Alstyne beat Anna by 21
Van Alstyne beat Bonham by 8
Van Alstyne beat North Lamar by 6
North Lamar beat Anna by 28
North Lamar beat Bonham by 7
Anna beat Commerce by 14
Commerce beat Bonham by 36
Projected finish:
1. Paris (29.8)
2. Van Alstyne (5.8)
3. Paris North Lamar (6.0) – D1
4. Anna (-10.6)
5. Commerce (-14.2)
6. Bonham (-16.9)
11-3A
The story so far:
Lake Worth beat Madison by 11
Lake Worth beat Carter-Riverside by 24
Lake Worth beat Castleberry by 28
Lake Worth beat Roosevelt by 48
Lake Worth beat Diamond Hill by 63
Madison beat Carter-Riverside by 16
Madison beat Castleberry by 26
Madison beat Ranchview by 32
Madison beat Roosevelt by 34
Carter-Riverside beat Ranchview by 3
Carter-Riverside beat Roosevelt by 25
Carter-Riverside beat Diamond Hill by 36
Castleberry beat Ranchview by 7
Castleberry beat Diamond Hill by 19
Castleberry beat Roosevelt by 58
Ranchview beat Roosevelt by 32
Ranchview beat Diamond Hill by 25
Diamond Hill beat Roosevelt by 2
Projected finish:
1. Lake Worth (31.3)
2. Dallas Madison (22.5)
3. Fort Worth Castleberry (6.3) - D1
4. FW Carter-Riverside (5.1)
5. Carrollton Ranchview (-0.5)
6. FW Diamond Hill-Jarvis (-25.1)
7. Dallas Roosevelt (-26.6)
12-3A
The story so far:
Kennedale beat Alvarado by 16
Kennedale beat Kaufman by 45
Kennedale beat Venus by 65
Alvarado beat Kaufman by 13
Alvarado beat Crandall by 17
Alvarado beat Ferris by 24
Ferris beat Kennedale by 1
Ferris beat Venus by 68
Kaufman beat Crandall by 7
Kaufman beat Venus by 29
Crandall beat Ferris by 3
Crandall beat Venus by 61
Projected finish
1. Kennedale (24.4)
2. Alvarado (17.2) - D1
3. Ferris (9.7)
4. Kaufman (-6.3)
5. Crandall (3.1)
6. Venus (-48.0)
13-3A
The story so far:
Farmersville beat Rains by 24
Farmersville beat Quinlan by 17
Farmersville beat Lovejoy by 9
Farmersville beat Community by 9
Lovejoy beat Princeton by 35
Lovejoy beat Quinlan by 23
Lovejoy beat Community by 23
Community beat Rains by 24
Community beat Princeton by 16
Quinlan beat Princeton by 30
Quinlan beat Rains by 23
Princeton beat Rains by 14
Projected finish:
1. Farmersville (15.1)
2. Lucas Lovejoy (18.5) - D1
3. Quinlan Ford (2.4)
4. Nevada Community (1.1)
5. Princeton (-16.4)
6. Emory Rains (-20.7)
14-3A
The story so far:
Wills Point beat Canton by 10
Wills Point beat Van by 13
Wills Point beat Kemp by 33
Wills Point beat Eustace by 33
Eustace beat Kemp by 1
Eustace beat Canton by 15
Eustace beat Mineola by 30
Van beat Kemp by 3
Van beat Mineola by 7
Van beat Canton by 25
Canton beat Mineola by 2
Mineola beat Kemp by 21
Projected finish:
1. Wills Point (19.3) - D1
2. Van (4.0)
3. Eustace (1.8)
4. Canton (-7.6)
5. Mineola (-7.5)
6. Kemp (-10.1)
16-3A
The story so far:
Pittsburg beat New Boston by 11
Pittsburg beat Mount Vernon by 28
Pittsburg beat Liberty-Eylau by 23
Pittsburg beat Atlanta by 25
Liberty-Eylau beat Pleasant Grove by 20
Liberty-Eylau beat Atlanta by 21
Liberty-Eylau beat Mount Vernon by 40
Pleasant Grove beat Mount Vernon by 14
Pleasant Grove beat New Boston by 21
Pleasant Grove beat Atlanta by 28
New Boston beat Mount Vernon by 20
New Boston beat Atlanta by 25
Projected finish:
1. Pittsburg (16.3)
2. Liberty-Eylau (11.5) - D1
3. Pleasant Grove (5.3)
4. New Boston (0.3)
5. Atlanta (-16.4)
6. Mount Vernon (-17.1)
The number in parentheses is the power rating calculated solely on district games played. All power ratings combined for a district should add up to zero
The difference between power ratings for two teams can be extrapolated as a predicted margin of victory or loss based on prior district game results.
1-3A
The story so far:
Borger beat Levelland by 36
Borger beat Lubbock Cooper by 8
Borger beat Dalhart by 3
Borger beat Perryton by 1
Lubbock Estacado beat Lubbock Cooper by 33
Lubbock Estacado beat Levelland by 31
Lubbock Estacado beat Dalhart by 10
Dalhart beat Levelland by 48
Dalhart beat Lubbock Cooper by 21
Perryton beat Levelland by 32
Perryton beat Lubbock Estacado by 12
Lubbock Cooper beat Perryton by 1
Circular games: Estacado beat Dalhart, Dalhart beat Cooper, Cooper beat Perryton, Perryton beat Estacado
Projected finish:
1. Lubbock Estacado (10.9) - D1
2. Borger (7.4)
3. Dalhart (9.9)
4. Perryton (6.4)
5. Lubbock Cooper (-6.6)
6. Levelland (-28.1)
2-3A
The story so far:
Abilene Wylie beat Breckenridge by 28
Abilene Wylie beat Brownwood by 20
Abilene Wylie beat Snyder by 17
Brownwood beat Sweetwater by 42
Brownwood beat Breckenridge by 38
Brownwood beat Graham by 1
Graham beat Sweetwater by 31
Graham beat Snyder by 14
Graham beat Abilene Wylie by 3
Snyder beat Sweetwater by 52
Snyder beat Breckenridge by 35
Sweetwater beat Breckenridge by 27
Projected finish:
1. Abilene Wylie (22.8) - D1
2. Brownwood (16.2)
3. Graham (20.9)
4. Snyder (14.9)
5. Sweetwater (-17.2)
6. Breckenridge (-22.8)
3-3A
The story so far:
Monahans beat Brownfield by 47
Monahans beat Lamesa by 41
Monahans beat Andrews by 39
Monahans beat Seminole by 28
Andrews beat Midland Greenwood by 16
Andrews beat Lamesa by 2
Midland Greenwood beat Brownfield by 20
Midland Greenwood beat Lamesa by 15
Midland Greenwood beat Seminole by 14
Seminole beat Brownfield by 46
Seminole beat Andrews by 18
Lamesa beat Brownfield by 2
Projected finish:
1. Monahans (30.9)
2. Seminole (6.9)
3. Andrews (-3.3) - D1
4. Midland Greenwood (0.4)
5. Lamesa (-12.6)
6. Brownfield (-22.3)
I'm seeing a 3-way tie between Seminole, Andrews and Greenwood likely.
Andrews beat Greenwood by 16, Greenwood beat Seminole by 14, Seminole beat Andrews by 16. How would the tiebreak work??
4-3A
The story so far:
Fort Stockton beat Tornillo by 63
Fort Stockton beat Fabens by 48
Fort Stockton beat Clint by 32
Fort Stockton beat Pecos by 21
Pecos beat Fabens by 38
Pecos beat Tornillo by 34
Pecos beat Anthony by 31
Fabens beat Anthony by 29
Fabens beat Clint by 6
Clint beat Tornillo by 43
Clint beat Anthony by 19
Anthony beat Tornillo by 1
Projected finish:
1. Fort Stockton (37.5)
2. Pecos (16.1)
3. Fabens (-4.7) - D1
4. Clint (1.6)
5. Anthony (-23.0)
6. Tornillo (-27.2)
5-3A
The story so far:
Bridgeport beat Vernon by 42
Bridgeport beat WF Hirschi by 42
Bridgeport beat Burkburnett by 27
Bridgeport beat Iowa Park by 7
Burkburnett beat Vernon by 34
Burkburnett beat Decatur by 29
Burkburnett beat Iowa Park by 7
Iowa Park beat WF Hirschi by 7
Iowa Park beat Decatur by 6
Vernon beat WF Hirschi by 24
Decatur beat WF Hirschi by 11
Decatur beat Vernon by 7
Projected finish:
1. Bridgeport (25.3)
2. Burkburnett (12.5) - D1
3. Iowa Park (2.3)
4. Decatur (-8.5)
5. Vernon (-12.3)
6. Wichita Falls Hirschi (-19.3)
7-3A
The story so far:
Glen Rose beat Whitney by 37
Glen Rose beat Gatesville by 35
Glen Rose beat West by 17
West beat Hillsboro by 41
West beat China Spring by 4
China Spring beat Whitney by 43
China Spring beat Hillsboro by 31
China Spring beat Glen Rose by 3
Gatesville beat Hillsboro by 39
Gatesville beat Whitney by 10
Gatesville beat West by 10
Whitney beat Hillsboro by 5
Projected finish:
1. China Spring (14.2)
2. Glen Rose (22.8)
3. Gatesville (2.0) - D1
4. West (7.3)
5. Whitney (-18.5)
6. Hillsboro (-27.8)
8-3A
The story so far:
Wimberley beat Burnet by 7
Wimberley beat Llano by 18
Wimberley beat Canyon Lake by 23
Wimberley beat Ingram Moore by 59
Burnet beat Ingram Moore by 64
Burnet beat Liberty Hill by 42
Burnet beat Llano by 14
Burnet beat Fredericksburg by 6
Canyon Lake beat Ingram Moore by 35
Canyon Lake beat Llano by 21
Canyon Lake beat Liberty Hill by 7
Canyon Lake beat Fredericksburg by 7
Liberty Hill beat Wimberley by 2
Liberty Hill beat Fredericksburg by 20
Liberty Hill beat Ingram Moore by 76
Llano beat Fredericksburg by 21
Llano beat Ingram Moore by 62
Fredericksburg beat Ingram Moore by 30
Circular games: Liberty Hill beat Wimberley, Wimberley beat Canyon Lake, Canyon Lake beat Liberty Hill
Projected finish:
1. Wimberley (13.2)
2. Burnet (13.6) - D1
3. Canyon Lake (-0.8)
4. Liberty Hill (2.0)
5. Llano (-1.8)
6. Fredericksburg (-12.6)
7. Ingram Moore (-52.1)
9-3A
The story so far:
Argyle beat Whitesboro by 29
Argyle beat Sanger by 27
Argyle beat Gainesville by 24
Argyle beat Prosper by 3
Prosper beat Whitesboro by 46
Prosper beat Celina by 24
Prosper beat Sanger by 20
Celina beat Gainesville by 39
Celina beat Sanger by 34
Celina beat Whitesboro by 31
Sanger beat Gainesville by 21
Gainesville beat Whitesboro by 3
Projected finish:
1. Argyle (14.0)
2. Prosper (21.5) - D1
3. Celina (13.2)
4. Sanger (-8.0)
5. Gainesville (-20.5)
6. Whitesboro (-20.2)
10-3A
The story so far:
Paris beat Commerce by 63
Paris beat Bonham by 44
Paris beat Anna by 35
Paris beat North Lamar by 13
Van Alstyne beat Commerce by 24
Van Alstyne beat Anna by 21
Van Alstyne beat Bonham by 8
Van Alstyne beat North Lamar by 6
North Lamar beat Anna by 28
North Lamar beat Bonham by 7
Anna beat Commerce by 14
Commerce beat Bonham by 36
Projected finish:
1. Paris (29.8)
2. Van Alstyne (5.8)
3. Paris North Lamar (6.0) – D1
4. Anna (-10.6)
5. Commerce (-14.2)
6. Bonham (-16.9)
11-3A
The story so far:
Lake Worth beat Madison by 11
Lake Worth beat Carter-Riverside by 24
Lake Worth beat Castleberry by 28
Lake Worth beat Roosevelt by 48
Lake Worth beat Diamond Hill by 63
Madison beat Carter-Riverside by 16
Madison beat Castleberry by 26
Madison beat Ranchview by 32
Madison beat Roosevelt by 34
Carter-Riverside beat Ranchview by 3
Carter-Riverside beat Roosevelt by 25
Carter-Riverside beat Diamond Hill by 36
Castleberry beat Ranchview by 7
Castleberry beat Diamond Hill by 19
Castleberry beat Roosevelt by 58
Ranchview beat Roosevelt by 32
Ranchview beat Diamond Hill by 25
Diamond Hill beat Roosevelt by 2
Projected finish:
1. Lake Worth (31.3)
2. Dallas Madison (22.5)
3. Fort Worth Castleberry (6.3) - D1
4. FW Carter-Riverside (5.1)
5. Carrollton Ranchview (-0.5)
6. FW Diamond Hill-Jarvis (-25.1)
7. Dallas Roosevelt (-26.6)
12-3A
The story so far:
Kennedale beat Alvarado by 16
Kennedale beat Kaufman by 45
Kennedale beat Venus by 65
Alvarado beat Kaufman by 13
Alvarado beat Crandall by 17
Alvarado beat Ferris by 24
Ferris beat Kennedale by 1
Ferris beat Venus by 68
Kaufman beat Crandall by 7
Kaufman beat Venus by 29
Crandall beat Ferris by 3
Crandall beat Venus by 61
Projected finish
1. Kennedale (24.4)
2. Alvarado (17.2) - D1
3. Ferris (9.7)
4. Kaufman (-6.3)
5. Crandall (3.1)
6. Venus (-48.0)
13-3A
The story so far:
Farmersville beat Rains by 24
Farmersville beat Quinlan by 17
Farmersville beat Lovejoy by 9
Farmersville beat Community by 9
Lovejoy beat Princeton by 35
Lovejoy beat Quinlan by 23
Lovejoy beat Community by 23
Community beat Rains by 24
Community beat Princeton by 16
Quinlan beat Princeton by 30
Quinlan beat Rains by 23
Princeton beat Rains by 14
Projected finish:
1. Farmersville (15.1)
2. Lucas Lovejoy (18.5) - D1
3. Quinlan Ford (2.4)
4. Nevada Community (1.1)
5. Princeton (-16.4)
6. Emory Rains (-20.7)
14-3A
The story so far:
Wills Point beat Canton by 10
Wills Point beat Van by 13
Wills Point beat Kemp by 33
Wills Point beat Eustace by 33
Eustace beat Kemp by 1
Eustace beat Canton by 15
Eustace beat Mineola by 30
Van beat Kemp by 3
Van beat Mineola by 7
Van beat Canton by 25
Canton beat Mineola by 2
Mineola beat Kemp by 21
Projected finish:
1. Wills Point (19.3) - D1
2. Van (4.0)
3. Eustace (1.8)
4. Canton (-7.6)
5. Mineola (-7.5)
6. Kemp (-10.1)
16-3A
The story so far:
Pittsburg beat New Boston by 11
Pittsburg beat Mount Vernon by 28
Pittsburg beat Liberty-Eylau by 23
Pittsburg beat Atlanta by 25
Liberty-Eylau beat Pleasant Grove by 20
Liberty-Eylau beat Atlanta by 21
Liberty-Eylau beat Mount Vernon by 40
Pleasant Grove beat Mount Vernon by 14
Pleasant Grove beat New Boston by 21
Pleasant Grove beat Atlanta by 28
New Boston beat Mount Vernon by 20
New Boston beat Atlanta by 25
Projected finish:
1. Pittsburg (16.3)
2. Liberty-Eylau (11.5) - D1
3. Pleasant Grove (5.3)
4. New Boston (0.3)
5. Atlanta (-16.4)
6. Mount Vernon (-17.1)