District Race Overview and Playoff Projections after Week 8

[WOS87]

The projected finishes are primarily based on who's beaten who so far head-to-head. In the case of districts where there are teams that don't have an obvious direct connection of wins and losses to rank them, I used the district power rating which is calculated using the same algorithm I used in my statewide 3A ratings the past 3 years

The number in parentheses is the power rating calculated solely on district games played. All power ratings combined for a district should add up to zero

The difference between power ratings for two teams can be extrapolated as a predicted margin of victory or loss based on prior district game results.

1-3A
The story so far:
Borger beat Levelland by 36
Borger beat Dalhart by 3
Borger beat Perryton by 1
Dalhart beat Levelland by 48
Dalhart beat Lubbock Cooper by 21
Perryton beat Lubbock Estacado by 12
Lubbock Estacado beat Lubbock Cooper by 33
Lubbock Estacado beat Levelland by 31
Lubbock Cooper beat Perryton by 1

Circular games: Estacado beat Cooper, Cooper beat Perryton, Perryton beat Estacado

Projected finish:
1. Borger (10.4) - D1
2. Dalhart (13.2)
3. Perryton (6.2)
4. Lubbock Estacado (7.1)
5. Lubbock Cooper (-8.8)
6. Levelland (-28.1)


2-3A
The story so far:
Abilene Wylie beat Breckenridge by 28
Abilene Wylie beat Brownwood by 20
Abilene Wylie beat Snyder by 17
Brownwood beat Breckenridge by 38
Brownwood beat Graham by 1
Graham beat Sweetwater by 31
Graham beat Snyder by 14
Snyder beat Sweetwater by 52
Sweetwater beat Breckenridge by 27

Projected finish:
1. Abilene Wylie (23.6) - D1
2. Brownwood (12.9)
3. Graham (19.7)
4. Snyder (16.6)
5. Sweetwater (-14.4)
6. Breckenridge (-23.6)


3-3A
The story so far:
Monahans beat Lamesa by 41
Monahans beat Andrews by 39
Monahans beat Seminole by 28
Andrews beat Midland Greenwood by 16
Andrews beat Lamesa by 2
Midland Greenwood beat Brownfield by 20
Midland Greenwood beat Seminole by 14
Seminole beat Brownfield by 46
Lamesa beat Brownfield by 2

Projected finish:
1. Monahans (33.7)
2. Andrews (0.2) - D1
3. Midland Greenwood (-1.2)
4. Seminole (3.7)
5. Lamesa (-10.9)
6. Brownfield (-25.5)


4-3A
The story so far:
Fort Stockton beat Tornillo by 63
Fort Stockton beat Clint by 32
Fort Stockton beat Pecos by 21
Pecos beat Fabens by 38
Pecos beat Tornillo by 34
Fabens beat Anthony by 29
Fabens beat Clint by 6
Clint beat Anthony by 19
Anthony beat Tornillo by 1

Projected finish:
1. Fort Stockton (36.6)
2. Pecos (20.3)
3. Fabens (-4.3) - D1
4. Clint (-4.2)
5. Anthony (-26.0)
6. Tornillo (-22.4)


5-3A
The story so far:
Bridgeport beat Vernon by 42
Bridgeport beat Burkburnett by 27
Bridgeport beat Iowa Park by 7
Burkburnett beat Vernon by 34
Burkburnett beat Decatur by 29
Iowa Park beat WF Hirschi by 7
Iowa Park beat Decatur by 6
Vernon beat WF Hirschi by 24
Decatur beat WF Hirschi by 11

Projected finish:
1. Bridgeport (26.7)
2. Burkburnett (14.0) - D1
3. Iowa Park (0.7)
4. Decatur (-10.0)
5. Vernon (-10.7)
6. Wichita Falls Hirschi (-20.7)


7-3A
The story so far:
Glen Rose beat Whitney by 37
Glen Rose beat Gatesville by 35
Glen Rose beat West by 17
West beat Hillsboro by 41
West beat China Spring by 4
China Spring beat Whitney by 43
China Spring beat Hillsboro by 31
Gatesville beat Hillsboro by 39
Gatesville beat Whitney by 10

Projected finish:
1. Glen Rose (26.9)
2. West (12.1)
3. China Spring (11.4) - D1
4. Gatesville (-2.4)
5. Whitney (-18.0)
6. Hillsboro (-30.0)


8-3A
The story so far:
Wimberley beat Burnet by 7
Wimberley beat Canyon Lake by 23
Wimberley beat Ingram Moore by 59
Burnet beat Liberty Hill by 42
Burnet beat Llano by 14
Burnet beat Fredericksburg by 6
Canyon Lake beat Ingram Moore by 35
Canyon Lake beat Llano by 21
Canyon Lake beat Liberty Hill by 7
Liberty Hill beat Wimberley by 2
Liberty Hill beat Fredericksburg by 20
Liberty Hill beat Ingram Moore by 76
Llano beat Fredericksburg by 21
Llano beat Ingram Moore by 62
Fredericksburg beat Ingram Moore by 30

Circular games: Liberty Hill beat Wimberley, Wimberley beat Canyon Lake, Canyon Lake beat Liberty Hill

Projected finish:
1. Wimberley (12.7)
2. Burnet (13.7) - D1
3. Canyon Lake (0.3)
4. Liberty Hill (1.9)
5. Llano (-1.0)
6. Fredericksburg (-13.7)
7. Ingram Moore (-52.4)


9-3A
The story so far:
Argyle beat Whitesboro by 29
Argyle beat Sanger by 27
Argyle beat Prosper by 3
Prosper beat Whitesboro by 46
Prosper beat Celina by 24
Celina beat Gainesville by 39
Celina beat Sanger by 34
Sanger beat Gainesville by 21
Gainesville beat Whitesboro by 3

Projected finish:
1. Argyle (17.9)
2. Prosper (25.9) - D1
3. Celina (12.7)
4. Sanger (-11.5)
5. Gainesville (-25.2)
6. Whitesboro (-19.8)


10-3A
The story so far:
Paris beat Commerce by 63
Paris beat Anna by 35
Paris beat North Lamar by 13
North Lamar beat Anna by 28
North Lamar beat Bonham by 7
Van Alstyne beat Commerce by 24
Van Alstyne beat Anna by 21
Van Alstyne beat Bonham by 8
Commerce beat Bonham by 36

Projected finish:
1. Paris (31.1)
2. Paris North Lamar (7.4) - D1
3. Van Alstyne (3.6)
4. Commerce (-11.1)
5. Anna (-14.0)
6. Bonham (-17.0)


11-3A
The story so far:
Lake Worth beat Carter-Riverside by 24
Lake Worth beat Castleberry by 28
Lake Worth beat Roosevelt by 48
Lake Worth beat Diamond Hill by 63
Madison beat Carter-Riverside by 16
Madison beat Castleberry by 26
Madison beat Ranchview by 32
Madison beat Roosevelt by 34
Carter-Riverside beat Ranchview by 3
Carter-Riverside beat Diamond Hill by 36
Castleberry beat Diamond Hill by 19
Castleberry beat Roosevelt by 58
Ranchview beat Roosevelt by 32
Ranchview beat Diamond Hill by 25
Diamond Hill beat Roosevelt by 2

Projected finish:
1. Lake Worth (30.7)
2. Dallas Madison (23.1)
3. FW Carter-Riverside (6.9) - D1
4. Fort Worth Castleberry (5.9)
5. Carrollton Ranchview (-0.3)
6. FW Diamond Hill-Jarvis (-25.1)
7. Dallas Roosevelt (-27.9)


12-3A
The story so far:
Kennedale beat Alvarado by 16
Kennedale beat Kaufman by 45
Kennedale beat Venus by 65
Alvarado beat Kaufman by 13
Alvarado beat Ferris by 24
Kaufman beat Crandall by 7
Crandall beat Ferris by 3
Crandall beat Venus by 61
Ferris beat Venus by 68

Projected finish
1. Kennedale (30.3)
2. Alvarado (17.9) - D1
3. Kaufman (-0.2)
4. Crandall (2.2)
5. Ferris (2.7)
6. Venus (-52.9)


13-3A
The story so far:
Farmersville beat Rains by 24
Farmersville beat Lovejoy by 9
Farmersville beat Community by 9
Lovejoy beat Princeton by 35
Lovejoy beat Quinlan by 23
Community beat Rains by 24
Community beat Princeton by 16
Quinlan beat Princeton by 30
Quinlan beat Rains by 23

Projected finish:
1. Farmersville (14.7)
2. Lucas Lovejoy (15.7) - D1
3. Nevada Community (3.1)
4. Quinlan Ford (3.1)
5. Emory Rains (-16.7)
6. Princeton (-19.7)


14-3A
The story so far:
Wills Point beat Canton by 10
Wills Point beat Van by 13
Wills Point beat Kemp by 33
Eustace beat Kemp by 1
Eustace beat Canton by 15
Eustace beat Mineola by 30
Van beat Kemp by 3
Van beat Mineola by 7
Canton beat Mineola by 2

Projected finish:
1. Wills Point (15.0) - D1
2. Eustace (8.2)
3. Van (-1.8)
4. Canton (-4.0)
5. Kemp (-5.2)
6. Mineola (-12.2)


16-3A
The story so far:
Pittsburg beat New Boston by 11
Pittsburg beat Liberty-Eylau by 23
Pittsburg beat Atlanta by 25
Liberty-Eylau beat Pleasant Grove by 20
Liberty-Eylau beat Mount Vernon by 40
New Boston beat Mount Vernon by 20
New Boston beat Atlanta by 25
Pleasant Grove beat Mount Vernon by 14
Pleasant Grove beat Atlanta by 28

Projected finish:
1. Pittsburg (19.7)
2. Liberty-Eylau (12.3) - D1
3. New Boston (5.6)
4. Pleasant Grove (-0.8)
5. Atlanta (-17.8)
6. Mount Vernon (-19.0)

[WOS87]

17-3A
The story so far:
Gilmer beat Chapel Hill by 38
Gilmer beat Spring Hill by 52
Gilmer beat Bullard by 71
Tatum beat Gladewater by 1
Tatum beat Chapel Hill by 7
Tatum beat Bullard by 28
Gladewater beat Spring Hill by 12
Gladewater beat Bullard by 36
Spring Hill beat Chapel Hill by 1

Projected finish:
1. Gilmer (39.1) - D1
2. Tatum (1.3)
3. Gladewater (3.1)
4. Longview Spring Hill (-8.5)
5. Tyler Chapel Hill (-4.7)
6. Bullard (-30.5)


18-3A
The story so far:
Carthage beat Rusk by 15
Carthage beat Jasper by 24
Carthage beat Center by 35
Center beat Rusk by 4
Center beat Diboll by 45
Rusk beat Huntington by 42
Jasper beat Diboll by 14
Jasper beat Huntington by 35
Diboll beat Huntington by 16

Projected finish:
1. Carthage (32.5) - D1
2. Center (12.0)
3. Rusk (11.0)
4. Jasper (0.5)
5. Diboll (-21.6)
6. Huntington (-34.4)


19-3A
The story so far:
Mexia beat Robinson by 11
Mexia beat La Vega by 18
Lorena beat Mexia by 7
Lorena beat Groesbeck by 14
Connally beat Groesbeck by 7
Connally beat Lorena by 8
La Vega beat Robinson by 8
La Vega beat Connally by 7
Robinson beat Groesbeck by 10

Circular games: Mexia beat La Vega, La Vega beat Connally, Connally beat Lorena, Lorena beat Mexia

This district is COMPLETELY up in the air at this point given there's only a 17 point differential in power rating between #1 and #6

Projected finish:
1. Mexia (7.7)
2. Lorena (3.9)
3. Waco Connally (0.9) - D1
4. Waco La Vega (0.7)
5. Robinson (-3.5)
6. Groesbeck (-9.9)


20-3A
The story so far:
Palestine beat Fairfield by 3
Palestine beat Brownsboro by 16
Palestine beat Crockett by 19
Brownsboro beat Fairfield by 19
Brownsboro beat Westwood by 24
Athens beat Fairfield by 10
Athens beat Westwood by 17
Crockett beat Athens by 9
Westwood beat Crockett by 13

Circular games: Athens beat Westwood, Westwood beat Crockett, Crockett beat Athens

Projected finish:
1. Palestine (11.9)
2. Brownsboro (8.6)
3. Athens (-0.6) - D1
4. Fairfield (-4.0)
5. Palestine Westwood (-9.0)
6. Crockett (-6.9)


21-3A
The story so far:
Silsbee beat Orangefield by 36
Silsbee beat Bridge City by 7
Silsbee beat West Orange-Stark by 6
West Orange-Stark beat Hamshire-Fannett by 62
West Orange-Stark beat Bridge City by 14
Bridge City beat Hardin-Jefferson by 10
Hardin-Jefferson beat Hamshire-Fannett by 16
Hardin-Jefferson beat Orangefield by 7
Orangefield beat Hamshire-Fannett by 45

Projected finish:
1. Silsbee (24.0) - D1
2. West Orange-Stark (21.3)
3. Bridge City (8.7)
4. Hardin-Jefferson (-8.1)
5. Orangefield (-7.0)
6. Hamshire-Fannett (-38.9)


22-3A
The story so far:
Coldspring beat Tarkington by 42
Coldspring beat Shepherd by 37
Coldspring beat Splendora by 34
Coldspring beat Huffman by 28
Cleveland beat Tarkington by 45
Cleveland beat Shepherd by 34
Cleveland beat Huffman by 24
Cleveland beat Liberty by 22
Shepherd beat Tarkington by 57
Shepherd beat Liberty by 14
Shepherd beat Splendora by 9
Liberty beat Huffman by 5
Huffman beat Splendora by 20
Splendora beat Liberty by 1
Tarkington beat Splendora by 6

Circular games: Liberty beat Huffman, Huffman beat Splendora, Splendora beat Liberty

Projected finish:
1. Coldspring (25.3)
2. Cleveland (23.5) - D1
3. Shepherd (2.4)
4. Huffman (-2.2)
5. Liberty (-5.8)
6. Tarkington (-25.4)
7. Splendora (-14.7)


24-3A
The story so far:
Caldwell beat Rudder by 36
Caldwell beat Rockdale by 21
Caldwell beat Navasota by 14
Caldwell beat Madisonville by 7
Navasota beat Taylor by 44
Navasota beat Rockdale by 28
Navasota beat Rudder by 27
Rockdale beat Rudder by 28
Rockdale beat Cameron by 20
Rockdale beat Madisonville by 2
Madisonville beat Cameron by 6
Madisonville beat Taylor by 3
Cameron beat Taylor by 26
Cameron beat Rudder by 18
Taylor beat Rudder by 2

Projected finish:
1. Caldwell (20.7)
2. Navasota (18.3) - D1
3. Rockdale (3.8)
4. Madisonville (0.7)
5. Cameron Yoe (-3.5)
6. Taylor (-18.4)
7. Bryan Rudder (-18.0)


25-3A
The story so far:
Sealy beat Columbus by 35
Sealy beat Smithville by 21
Sealy beat Giddings by 12
Giddings beat Bellville by 14
Giddings beat La Grange by 4
La Grange beat Bellville by 3
La Grange beat Smithville by 3
Bellville beat Columbus by 31
Smithville beat Columbus by 20

Projected finish:
1. Sealy (16.3) - D1
2. Giddings (8.3)
3. La Grange (2.5)
4. Bellville (0.2)
5. Smithville (-3.1)
6. Columbus (-24.2)


26-3A
The story so far:
Sweeny beat West Columbia by 6
Sweeny beat Needville by 22
Sweeny beat Stafford by 46
Brookshire beat Wharton by 14
Brookshire beat Stafford by 28
Brookshire beat West Columbia by 35
Needville beat Wharton by 5
Needville beat West Columbia by 19
Wharton beat Stafford by 6

Projected finish:
1. Sweeny (16.0)
2. Brookshire Royal (14.9)
3. Needville (1.3) - D1
4. Wharton (-4.9)
5. West Columbia (-9.3)
6. Stafford (-18.0)


27-3A
The story so far:
Luling beat SA Sam Houston by 13
Luling beat Poteet by 24
Luling beat Marion by 44
SA Sam Houston beat La Vernia by 8
SA Sam Houston beat Marion by 39
La Vernia beat Somerset by 19
La Vernia beat Poteet by 24
Somerset beat Marion by 22
Somerset beat Poteet by 27

Projected finish:
1. Luling (15.4)
2. San Antonio Sam Houston (10.2) - D1
3. La Vernia (8.4)
4. Somerset (-2.2)
5. Poteet (-17.8)
6. Marion (-27.2)


28-3A
The story so far:
Edna beat Gonzales by 40
Edna beat Palacios by 27
Edna beat Yoakum by 6
Cuero beat Palacios by 30
Cuero beat Goliad by 28
Cuero beat Yoakum by 3
Yoakum beat Gonzales by 39
Palacios beat Goliad by 7
Goliad beat Gonzales by 6

Projected finish:
1. Edna (17.9)
2. Cuero (16.5) - D1
3. Yoakum (13.9)
4. Palacios (-10.3)
5. Goliad (-15.2)
6. Gonzales (-22.8)


29-3A
The story so far:
Hondo beat Pearsall by 8
Hondo beat Carrizo Springs by 29
Hondo beat Crystal City by 31
Hondo beat Lytle by 54
Pearsall beat Bandera by 3
Pearsall beat Devine by 3
Pearsall beat Lytle by 46
Bandera beat Devine by 1
Bandera beat Carrizo Springs by 34
Bandera beat Crystal City by 40
Devine beat Hondo by 2
Devine beat Crystal City by 21
Carrizo Springs beat Lytle by 8
Carrizo Springs beat Crystal City by 8
Crystal City beat Lytle by 2

Circular games: Hondo beat Pearsall, Pearsall beat Bandera, Pearsall AND Bandera beat Devine, Devine beat Hondo

Projected finish:
1. Hondo (17.3)
2. Pearsall (15.6)
3. Bandera (16.6) - D1
4. Devine (12.4)
5. Carrizo Springs (-14.9)
6. Crystal City (-18.9)
7. Lytle (-27.7)


31-3A
The story so far:
Sinton beat Robstown by 1
Sinton beat Mathis by 5
Sinton beat Orange Grove by 7
Sinton beat Aransas Pass by 35
Sinton beat Falfurrias by 37
Mathis beat Ingleside by 1
Mathis beat Robstown by 9
Mathis beat West Oso by 21
Mathis beat Aransas Pass by 44
Ingleside beat West Oso by 25
Ingleside beat Orange Grove by 28
Ingleside beat Aransas Pass by 37
Ingleside beat Falfurrias by 55
Robstown beat West Oso by 6
Robstown beat Orange Grove by 21
Robstown beat Aransas Pass by 23
West Oso beat Orange Grove by 3
West Oso beat Falfurrias by 40
Orange Grove beat Falfurrias by 41
Aransas Pass beat Falfurrias by 27

Projected finish:
1. Sinton (10.8)
2. Mathis (18.5)
3. Ingleside (20.6) - D1
4. Robstown (9.6)
5. Corpus Christi West Oso (-0.3)
6. Orange Grove (-3.1)
7. Aransas Pass (-18.1)
8. Falfurrias (-38.0)


32-3A
The story so far:
Lyford beat Port Isabel by 1
Lyford beat La Feria by 10
Lyford beat Hidalgo by 19
Lyford beat Zapata by 29
Lyford beat Progreso by 31
Zapata beat Rio Hondo by 6
Zapata beat Port Isabel by 7
Zapata beat Raymondville by 10
Zapata beat La Feria by 14
Rio Hondo beat Hidalgo by 6
Rio Hondo beat Port Isabel by 10
Rio Hondo beat Raymondville by 19
Rio Hondo beat Progreso by 20
Hidalgo beat Port Isabel by 3
Hidalgo beat Progreso by 42
Port Isabel beat La Feria by 47
La Feria beat Raymondville by 1
La Feria beat Progreso by 1
Raymondville beat Hidalgo by 3
Raymondville beat Progreso by 16

Circular games: Hidalgo beat Port Isabel, Port Isabel beat La Feria, La Feria beat Raymondville, Raymondville beat Hidalgo

Projected finish:
1. Lyford (14.6)
2. Zapata (4.0) - D1
3. Rio Hondo (8.0)
4. Hidalgo (4.4)
5. Port Isabel (8.7)
6. La Feria (-13.6)
7. Raymondville (-5.7)
8. Progreso (-20.4)

[WOS87]

Here are the second (meaning STILL preliminary) WOS87 PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS for the year

Feel free to disagree but I determined all of this solely on logic and numbers so there is little or none of my own personal opinion included in these. I will be happy to explain my reasoning if it is not clear why certain district projections ended up the way they did.

DIVISION I

REGION I
Borger vs Abilene Wylie
Andrews vs Fabens
Burkburnett vs BYE
China Spring vs Burnet

REGION II
Prosper vs Paris North Lamar
FW Carter-Riverside vs Alvarado
Lucas Lovejoy vs Wills Point
BYE vs Liberty-Eylau

REGION III
Gilmer vs Carthage
Waco Connally vs Athens
Silsbee vs Cleveland
BYE vs Navasota

REGION IV
Sealy vs Needville
San Antonio Sam Houston vs Cuero
Bandera vs BYE
Ingleside vs Zapata


DIVISION II

REGION I
(1C) Dalhart vs (2R) Graham
(3C) Monahans vs (4R) Pecos
(5C) Bridgeport vs BYE
(7C) Glen Rose vs (8R) Canyon Lake
(1R) Perryton vs (2C) Brownwood
(3R) Midland Greenwood vs (4C) Fort Stockton
(5R) Iowa Park vs BYE
(7R) West vs (8C) Wimberley

REGION II
(9C) Argyle vs (10R) Van Alstyne
(11C) Lake Worth vs (12R) Kaufman
(13C) Farmersville vs (14R) Van
BYE vs (16R) New Boston
(9R) Celina vs (10C) Paris
(11R) Dallas Madison vs (12C) Kennedale
(13R) Nevada Community vs (14C) Eustace
BYE vs (16C) Pittsburg

REGION III
(17C) Tatum vs (18R) Rusk
(19C) Mexia vs (20R) Brownsboro
(21C) West Orange-Stark vs (22R) Shepherd
BYE vs (24R) Rockdale
(17R) Gladewater vs (18C) Center
(19R) Lorena vs (20C) Palestine
(21R) Bridge City vs (22C) Coldspring
BYE vs (24C) Caldwell

REGION IV
(25C) Giddings vs (26R) Brookshire Royal
(27C) Luling vs (28R) Yoakum
(29C) Hondo vs BYE
(31C) Sinton vs (32R) Rio Hondo
(25R) La Grange vs (26C) Sweeny
(27R) La Vernia vs (28C) Edna
(29R) Pearsall vs BYE
(31R) Mathis vs (32C) Lyford

[WOS87]

Region I is completed. I'm working on the remaining three Regions and they should be posted shortly.

[WOS87]

UPDATE: Region II is posted

[WOS87]

UPDATE: Region III is posted

[WOS87]

UPDATE: Statewide 3A District Overviews and Playoff Projections are now completed for Week 8

Please let me know of any errors in margins of victory and I will correct them

[99IHSMustang]

Job Well done WOS87 :clap:

[BLACK&GOLD4LIFE]

wow.. great job.... thats a lot of work:clap:

[Raider Red]

WOS87
In district 19, La Vega beat Connally by 7 28-21 and beat Robinson by 8 54-46. That may make a difference in your point differential.

[Johnny 5]

Rio Hondo vs Sinton = :eek: :hairpunk:

[BwdLions]

There was a lot of work put into this. Great job, and thanks!

[lostaussie]

Originally posted by WOS87
[b]
Projected finish:
1. Carthage (32.5) - D1
2. Center (12.0)
3. Rusk (11.0)
4. Jasper (0.5)
5. Diboll (-21.6)
6. Huntington (-34.4)


87 I know these are just your numbers..............but do you really believe this is the real finish. i think not!!!

[trojandad]

man i'm glad i don't have to pay you for what that work is worth, thanks so much......

just checking that i'm reading your strength numbers right, are your numbers showing that a possible latter matchup between coldspring and caldwell would have us as a favorite? if so it would explain why you have been saying to swap rankings with us and cleveland......

[WOS87]

No, the numbers are only valid in comparing teams within the same district. I did statewide ratings the last couple of years but have been WAY too busy to do it again this year.

[crabman]

So how much does Cuero have to beat Gonzales by in order to have any hope of staying on the field with Edna? :D

[WOS87]

Originally posted by crabman
So how much does Cuero have to beat Gonzales by in order to have any hope of staying on the field with Edna? :D

Argue with the numbers, not me. I've said the same thing to the Jasper fans. I always have the same usual disclaimer at the beginning of every statistical thread I post.

Edna has matched Cuero in their performances against both Yoakum and Palacios numbers-wise, therefore, I wouldn't automatically overlook them if I were a Cuero follower (which I actually am)... That's the only conclusion I personally would make from the numbers I posted above.

I'm all for objective stats... there are already WAY too many subjective rankings in high school football (the 3ADL rankings, the AP poll, the DCTF rankings, etc.) and I think seeing both helps.

Do I base my personal opinion on either 100%? ABSOLUTELY NOT!

Do any of them determine who actually gets the state title at the end of the season? Nope (at least in the high school ranks)

IMO the problem with the BCS in the NCAA has always been that it tries to combine the two in an objective way which is pretty much impossible and quite frankly contradictory.

Do I personally think Cuero is the favorite in the game vs Edna? YES. But it's comments like the one quoted above that leave you open to getting VERY burned if Edna actually wins!

...and in the long run does it really matter? Cuero is looking to be a shoe-in for the D1 district playoff slot and Edna the D2 district champ playoff slot no matter who wins the head-to-head. :D

[LE Dad]

Originally posted by WOS87
Argue with the numbers, not me. I've said the same thing to the Jasper fans. I always have the same usual disclaimer at the beginning of every statistical thread I post.

Edna has matched Cuero in their performances against both Yoakum and Palacios numbers-wise, therefore, I wouldn't automatically overlook them if I were a Cuero follower (which I actually am)... That's the only conclusion I personally would make from the numbers I posted above.

I'm all for objective stats... there are already WAY too many subjective rankings in high school football (the 3ADL rankings, the AP poll, the DCTF rankings, etc.) and I think seeing both helps.

Do I base my personal opinion on either 100%? ABSOLUTELY NOT!

Do any of them determine who actually gets the state title at the end of the season? Nope (at least in the high school ranks)

IMO the problem with the BCS in the NCAA has always been that it tries to combine the two in an objective way which is pretty much impossible and quite frankly contradictory.

Do I personally think Cuero is the favorite in the game vs Edna? YES. But it's comments like the one quoted above that leave you open to getting VERY burned if Edna actually wins!

...and in the long run does it really matter? Cuero is looking to be a shoe-in for the D1 district playoff slot and Edna the D2 district champ playoff slot no matter who wins the head-to-head. :D Well said WOS87



:clap: :clap:

[CueroDad08]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by WOS87
Argue with the numbers, not me. I've said the same thing to the Jasper fans. I always have the same usual disclaimer at the beginning of every statistical thread I post.

Edna has matched Cuero in their performances against both Yoakum and Palacios numbers-wise, therefore, I wouldn't automatically overlook them if I were a Cuero follower (which I actually am)... That's the only conclusion I personally would make from the numbers I posted above.

I'm all for objective stats... there are already WAY too many subjective rankings in high school football (the 3ADL rankings, the AP poll, the DCTF rankings, etc.) and I think seeing both helps.

Do I base my personal opinion on either 100%? ABSOLUTELY NOT!

Do any of them determine who actually gets the state title at the end of the season? Nope (at least in the high school ranks)

IMO the problem with the BCS in the NCAA has always been that it tries to combine the two in an objective way which is pretty much impossible and quite frankly contradictory.

Do I personally think Cuero is the favorite in the game vs Edna? YES. But it's comments like the one quoted above that leave you open to getting VERY burned if Edna actually wins!

...and in the long run does it really matter? Cuero is looking to be a shoe-in for the D1 district playoff slot and Edna the D2 district champ playoff slot no matter who wins the head-to-head. :D [/QUOTE







I take it you dont have a factor to plug in for a team that has won 32 in a row at home? And Edna will be comming to Cuero.

[WOS87]

I take it you dont have a factor to plug in for a team that has won 32 in a row at home? And Edna will be comming to Cuero.

All streaks come to an end eventually... WO-S learned that this year after their 32 consecutive district game winning streak came to an end....

And in all seriousness, did I NOT just say in the post you quoted yourself that I predict Cuero to win?! (unfortunately the numbers from my statistics do not). Feel free to post your own objective stats showing how things "should" play out, this is an open forum.

[crabman]

I was just jacking around. You people know me better than that. The other thing people from Cuero know is that no one is taken lightly. We have seen Kam Jones for a few years now. His former head coach is actually in Cuero. He loves the kid. A player like Kam can win it for you single handedly. I would not be surprised if that game was less than a touchdown either way. Whoever wins, Edna will do well in the playoffs.

I was jacking around but it was a little bit serious too. What margin of victory throws the poll back Cuero's way. Numerically speaking.

[WOS87]

Originally posted by crabman
I was jacking around but it was a little bit serious too. What margin of victory throws the poll back Cuero's way. Numerically speaking.

Well...
Cuero beat Goliad by 28
Edna beat Gonzales by 40

Edna's playing Goliad this week and Cuero's playing Gonzales....

To make the numbers switch in Cuero's favor Cuero would have to do at least a couple of points better in their spread against Gonzales (which is currently 39 points) than Edna does in their spread against Goliad (which is currently 33 points).

The Yoakum-Palacios game will also factor in. Each and every game factors in to how the numbers crunch out...

[CueroDad08]

Keep in mind Crabman that the numbers he has to work with are from two teams that play much different pre distric schedules. Also as we all know Reeves will never score more than he has to in any game

[WOS87]

Originally posted by CueroDad08
Keep in mind Crabman that the numbers he has to work with are from two teams that play much different pre distric schedules.

The numbers are calculated using ONLY district games so non-district schedules, records and results are not a factor whatsoever

[CueroDad08]

WOS you do a great job with numbers.
But these numbers you use to try and help predict games have nothing to do with how teams matchup.

[WOS87]

Originally posted by CueroDad08
WOS you do a great job with numbers.
But these numbers you use to try and help predict games have nothing to do with how teams matchup.

I had over an 80% accuracy in predicting the outcome of games last year using the same system so I beg to differ. They may not work well when there are teams that matchup differently and the numbers are close and I acknowledge that (JUST like Edna vs Cuero) but if there's more than a 2 TD difference in rating the accuracy is well above 90%

Click Here --->2008 Final Ratings Thread (http://bbs.3adownlow.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=90901)

...and Gobblers (as well as the Jasper Bulldogs), I hope you come out and prove the numbers wrong! Good luck to both of you! :)

Seriously guys and gals, this is just meant to be used as a tool... NOT to knock any particular team, NOT to be read as Gospel and for the nth time I will state that these projections are by no means what my own personal opinion is. It's just statistics! Chill!

I promise you every single one of the numbers will change after this Friday.

If you really want me to post a playoff projection based on opinion I could easily do it (as could any of you) but I'd get the same complaints (as would you) with even less ammunition to back up my argument.

[hollywood]

Statistical numbers should be considered and are a good way to show probable outcomes. And to back this up, teams have power ratings for a reason and it holds true the majority of the time. But, on the flip side, some subjectives could hold true especially in high school sports due to emotions. Sometimes the will to win overpowers talent level. This is why teams show up and play the game. To prove to themselves, to the program, to their community, and for the simple reason... the will to win. Never overlook the underdog. They get hungry too.

[SintonFan]

Great job as always WOS87! :clap:

I'll see if I can find my old system for ratings. I'll pm you my formula. Unfortunately I haven't seen it in about 8 years.:confused:

[SintonFan]

Originally posted by Johnny 5
Rio Hondo vs Sinton = :eek: :hairpunk:

Hey, didn't yall beat us the last time we met?!!:confused:

[strosfan]

WOS87 You are by far the most informative poster I have ever seen. Thanks for all the information you give us!!!!!!

[Hupernikomen]

Guess I missed all the Jasper complaints.

Statics are just one aspect of making accurate predictions. A share of fundamental analysis is also needed. Not all teams keep scoring once the game is in hand, some teams play stellar defense and don't put up a lot of points.

Jasper very easily handled Rusk. On paper is should have been a good game since Rusk played Carthage close.

The old saying "any given Friday" is the x-factor in every game that can't be computed or analyzed.

[j_dog]

Originally posted by Hupernikomen
Guess I missed all the Jasper complaints.

Statics are just one aspect of making accurate predictions. A share of fundamental analysis is also needed. Not all teams keep scoring once the game is in hand, some teams play stellar defense and don't put up a lot of points.

Jasper very easily handled Rusk. On paper is should have been a good game since Rusk played Carthage close.

The old saying "any given Friday" is the x-factor in every game that can't be computed or analyzed.
What Jasper complaints? I did not see any, not from Jasper fans. I think most Jasper fans have pretty much learned to let their play on the field speak for itself. For better, or for worse.

About statistics. The only statistic that matters (usually) is did you win the game. Unless tie breakers enter the picture, a one point victory is as good as 100. What is that old saying? Winners say play ball. Losers talk about statistics. Something like that. :cool: