Enrollment Numbers

[SHSBulldog00]

3A will never be the same! Several 3A's will be 2A's Next Year!

Projected numbers for 3A (480 - 1,039)

I will go by Region and mention teams that fell under 480 in 2008 or those that were close. If you have numbers please post them. (Or any other inside info)

[SHSBulldog00]

Region 1

Dalhart
Breckenridge
Brownfield
Lamesa
Midland Greenwood
Anthony*
Tornillo*
Glen Rose
Hillsboro
West
Whitney
Tom Ingram Moore
Llano

[SHSBulldog00]

Region 2

Celina - Definite 3A
Anna
Commerce
Van Alstyne
Dallas Madison
Venus
Emory Rains
Farmersville
Nevada Community
Eustace
Kemp
Mineola
Mount Vernon
New Boston

[SHSBulldog00]

Region 3

Bullard
Longview Spring Hill
Tatum
Dibboll
Huntington
Groesbeck
Lorena
Crockett
Palestine Westwood
Orangefield
Shepherd
Cameron Yoe - Definite 2A

[SHSBulldog00]

Region 4

Brookshire Royal - Definite 3A
Luling
Marion
SA Hawkins
Edna
Goliad
Palacios
Yoakum
Lytle
CC West Oso
Falfurrias
Orange Grove
Lyford
Progreso

[Old Dog]

Well we know for sure that they all can't go down to 2A because it would require around the same number of 4As to come down in order to keep the balance in all the classifications. Mercy, what to do, what to do!

Glad I don't have the job of figuring all that out; no way to satisfy anyone let alone everyone..........

[SHSBulldog00]

No there not all moving to 2A but these are school's that would be close to or below the projection based on 2008.

[HEMOTOXIC]

NAVASOTA-813

[95mustang]

Abilene Wylie....1,038....:D

[GrTigers6]

Originally posted by SHSBulldog00
Region 1

Dalhart
Breckenridge
Brownfield
Lamesa
Midland Greenwood
Anthony*
Tornillo*
Glen Rose
Hillsboro
West
Whitney
Tom Ingram Moore
Llano
Last I saw we were at 514

[IrishTex]

Originally posted by 95mustang
Abilene Wylie....1,038....:D

X2 = 2,076

:D :D :D

[SHSBulldog00]

Originally posted by GrTigers6
Last I saw we were at 514

Glen Rose should remain 3A for at least a few more years.

[bigwood33]

Where did you get those "projected numbers", out of your a$$? There is no way that will be accurate. Start with about 245 in class 5A and 240 in 4A schools and that is where the top number for 3A will begin. Do you know which ones those will be? Unless you somehow magically know what everyone's enrollment is, before the numbers are actually reported I might add, then you can completely disregard this guesswork. Until then, that isn't even a WAG (wild a$$ed guess). Those are just random numbers with no basis.

[Yoe_09]

Cameron Yoe- 414. If this number is accurate as it should be, we will be 2a next year.

[bigwood33]

Originally posted by Yoe_09
Cameron Yoe- 414. If this number is accurate as it should be, we will be 2a next year.
I would agree with that. The bottom number should not go down and it is 430 now.

[Yoe_09]

Originally posted by bigwood33
I would agree with that. The bottom number should not go down and it is 430 now.

na it wont go down, it should go up i guess atleast 10 or more.

[SHSBulldog00]

Originally posted by bigwood33
Where did you get those "projected numbers", out of your a$$? There is no way that will be accurate. Start with about 245 in class 5A and 240 in 4A schools and that is where the top number for 3A will begin. Do you know which ones those will be? Unless you somehow magically know what everyone's enrollment is, before the numbers are actually reported I might add, then you can completely disregard this guesswork. Until then, that isn't even a WAG (wild a$$ed guess). Those are just random numbers with no basis.

These are numbers I have heard from other sites as well as some school admin.

I think it will be 450-999

[bigwood33]

Originally posted by SHSBulldog00
These are numbers I have heard from other sites as well as some school admin.

I think it will be 450-999
I'll bet that is closer to right but it may not be quite as high as 450. Remember is it ALL about 5A and 4A. 3A is the stepchild in this whole thing.

[LH Panther Mom]

Roughly 730-735 (give or take) here

[STANG RED]

I've heard of some schools with as many as 150+ students absent with the flu. I wonder if this will be taken into account, if this is the case on the magic count day?

[Pinerider]

Originally posted by SHSBulldog00
Region 1

Dalhart
Breckenridge
Brownfield
Lamesa
Midland Greenwood
Anthony*
Tornillo*
Glen Rose
Hillsboro
West
Whitney
Tom Ingram Moore
Llano Greenwood is up to 520 at start of this year

[lange4]

Maybe they ought to start taking 3 or 5 attendance days and averaging them out to get the total. Just an idea.

[Dogman_1969]

Rockdale is loosing kids due to ALCOA going away as well as the construction coming to an end. At 450 they will probably stay 3A but not by much. If they count enrollment at a day when the flu bug is high they may go down. I heard they were at 85% present last week. Even at 500 enrollment at the 85% that would put them at 425 and in 2A.

Things will get interesting......

[slingshot]

Originally posted by 95mustang
Abilene Wylie....1,038....:D Nah... we just play that way ;) . Count I heard was 940. Funny that Brownwood (one of the bigger 3A schools at 900+) is the one bellyaching the most about Wylie having an advantage due to enrollment :rolleyes: . Talk about the pot calling the kettle, well you know...

[Bull Butter]

Originally posted by bigwood33
Where did you get those "projected numbers", out of your a$$? There is no way that will be accurate. Start with about 245 in class 5A and 240 in 4A schools and that is where the top number for 3A will begin. Do you know which ones those will be? Unless you somehow magically know what everyone's enrollment is, before the numbers are actually reported I might add, then you can completely disregard this guesswork. Until then, that isn't even a WAG (wild a$$ed guess). Those are just random numbers with no basis.

No one knows at this point, it's just speculation. That's one of the things that makes this board fun. Everyone has an opinon on a given subject. Most of us here respect each other's opinion on things. Get with the flow of the board.

Translated----Pull the burr out of your a$$ and lighten up

[jdawg2012]

I think Jasper is in the 830-880 range. This year's freshmen class was HUGE!! This is up from like 740 last year!

[Twirling Time]

Throw Anna in the definite 3A camp. They're right on Prosper's heels as far as growth. I'm guessing by 2014 they'll be 4A or pretty close.

[Trashman]

Enrollment numbers are based on enrollment not absentees.

[AggiesAreWe]

Silsbee is at 875.

[95mustang]

Originally posted by slingshot
Nah... we just play that way ;) . Count I heard was 940. Funny that Brownwood (one of the bigger 3A schools at 900+) is the one bellyaching the most about Wylie having an advantage due to enrollment :rolleyes: . Talk about the pot calling the kettle, well you know...

Brownwood was playing in 4A and had a smaller number of students then Wylie. I was told last week we were between 890-900 students.

[87 TIGER]

Rockdale will come in around 490. We will just be a very small 3a

[OldBison75]

People, it dosen't matter how many are sick or absent on the date the numbers are taken. The number used is the actual school enrollment as of that date--how many kids are actually registered as students in the school. The only way to beat the system is to have 100 or so students drop out the week before and then re-enroll after the number is taken. Everyone seems to think it is based on average daily attendance or the attendance that day, but it is not. There are also some snapshot days during the year that average daily attendance is taken and reported to act as a check and balance system. There is a formula they use to calculate if the ADA is consistent with the enrollment.

[pancho villa]

We will have 450 absent that day and go to 2A.

[turbostud]

I dont know why everyone wants to drop down in the first place. It seems that every team that drops down in classification is dropping down into a butt kicking.

[pancho villa]

Originally posted by turbostud
I dont know why everyone wants to drop down in the first place. It seems that every team that drops down in classification is dropping down into a butt kicking.

OK we will bring in 450 kids from Highland Park that day.

[LE Dad]

Originally posted by turbostud
I dont know why everyone wants to drop down in the first place. It seems that every team that drops down in classification is dropping down into a butt kicking. :tisk: :tisk: Not everyone.

[GreenMonster]

Originally posted by STANG RED
I've heard of some schools with as many as 150+ students absent with the flu. I wonder if this will be taken into account, if this is the case on the magic count day?

UIL uses ENROLLMENT numbers to decide classification. It does not matter how many kids are out with the flu. ATTENDANCE numbers are how the state decides to how much money schools get.

[Blackcat1954]

Thats one reason why El Campo ISD adminatratoros want the school to remain in 4A

With that said, EC still has a few too many students to go down to 3A

They are not going to let many 3A schools drop to 2A -There already is a shortage of 3A schools as it is

2A has just the right number-doubt many will move up to 3A

Rice Consolidated, Hempstead and Hallettsville who used to be 3A, will stay 2A

Edna is hoping to go down, but will proabably stay in 3A

[papalote1]

Don't know if the number will go above 1000 at the top cutoff.

The UIL has tried to keep the 2-1 ratio as best they can at each level to eliminate some of the past mismatches between really big schools, and really small schools in the same classification.

It's not a perfect science, and God knows those guys don't know much about geography, especially after the 5A alignments are done.

There will be some new 4A schools this coming year, and at least one of two 3A schools in the DFW area (Frisco's new campus will be 3A--for two years anyway, then they will probably shoot up to big 4A or small 5A after that. :) )

Whatever the UIL decides, it's gonna pi$$ off more than a few...it always does, and our school is one of the ones that has gotten pi$$ed off the last two alignments, but oh well. You play the hand you are dealt.

[Matthew328]

We'd LOVE to drop to 3A :)

[Raider Red]

Over the last 5 realignments the top of 3A has averaged going up 27 and the bottom 17. With current numbers the bottom would be in the 445 range and the top at 1005 range. I do not think there will be much movement in the 3A teams this time.

[Yoe_09]

I agree with both of those numbers. I dont feel there will be huge jumps.

[hollywood]

Originally posted by Matthew328
We'd LOVE to drop to 3A :) Bet you couldn't beat Brownwood.:D

[RMAC]

There was a great article in DCTF (2008) last year about the guys that are actually responsible for it and had interviews with them. They have 250 5A schools and work down from there. It all depends on how the 5A's go and everybody 4A on down feels the ripples. Very interesting read. I felt bad for those guys. They knew what they were doing as far as out west and the panhandle but there wasn't any better way. The fact of the matter is is that a good percentage of the state's population lives in the triangle between the Metroplex, San Antonio, and Houston. Something somewhere has to give and it happens to be the panhandle and out west.

[navscanmaster]

Bryan Rudder will for sure be a 4A. They have 1300+ with no senior class this year.

[SHSBulldog00]

Breckenridge has 418 students. Buckaroo's are 2A bound.

[Texas Cougar]

China Spring is currently at 647. Firmly in the middle of 3A.