Matt 328 & Jasper's Defense

[Old Cardinal]

Matt 328, On the "old Coach" board you continue to downgrade Jasper and especially their Defense...Several of us were talking, who have watched them scrimmage and play. We were just wondering what games that you saw them Play? Our impression is that they were great on defense. They have some points scored on them- but its by West Orange-Stark, Port Arthur Lincoln, Ozen, Nederland, Port Neches Groves, Vidor, Port Arthur Jefferson and the like.....Those teams are like most quarter final talent. I feel that your trying to cover Region III without seeing the actual teams play will be quite difficult for you. I am not being critical, but having seen Jasper play, I, like others, were quite impressed with their defense year.

[Jacket2000]

Well, the reason Matt doesnt think too highly of their defense, is b/c their defense wasnt very impressive. They had the 2nd worst defense in their district in 2001(only Livingston was worse,they went 1-9). So, as impressive as you feel they were, statisticly, they didnt measure up.
J2K

[bearcat1]

This is a common complaint with good reason; correspondent's trying to cover a region without actually having seen the teams play. Well, some of the teams, but it is pretty much impossible for us to physically witness all the teams within a region play a game. For example, I try to cover Region I. Now there were 8 districts, with 6-8 teams in a district. That'd be 4 games per district...4x8 is 32, so I'd need to plan on watching about 32 district games in ten weeks. If I watched a game every Friday night and during playoffs added Saturdays, that would only allow me to see about 19 games. So out of 40 some-odd teams, I'm actually going to see less than half of them, and most likely they will be confined to one or two select districts within a region. And those will probably be the districts near me, i.e. 7 and 8. So I would say the majority of what we report, as well as our summations, must come from research---what we read and who we know/talk to--- rather than who we actually have seen play. If we kept our statements limited to who we had seen...we would not have a website.
PS There are those teams who's statistics are so very deceiving, for example "That's the best 0-10 team in the state!!", but not as many as you think. A weak defense is fairly easy to spot even by nothing more than analyzing their statistics. Just my 2 cents, mainly b/c I will be covering Region I and I can guarantee you I will be lucky to see 10 games!! And some of those will be the same team twice! Though I would like to expand a bit more this season and with Aledo out of the picture, I'm sure I'll broaden my horizons a bit! <groans of 'WE HOPE" from the audience> lol http://bbs.3adownlow.com/ubb/smile.gif
bc

[Old Cardinal]

I can see if you don't know the situation first hand, how its easy to derive certain stat conclusions.... Example: Both Nederland and Jasper drove deep into the 4A playoffs last year. Jacket 2000(Ennis), remember you played West Orange-Stark the year before that- in the 4A Finals. It just does not matter which one comes out on top of their Districts they always drive deep into the playoff ranks. In a swift political manuever the UIL has lumped 9 of these great teams into ONE District trying to keep them from being such a force in 4A Post Season. Yes, their individual stats don't look very good on any of these teams, to those that have never seen them play, because they are exceptional programs trying to win a playoff berth against like tough teams. Look at the post season stats for the last 10 years and you can see they tend to man-handle the teams with those fancy stats that tend to dominate in weaker overall District situations.

[Old Cardinal]

Both Nederland and Jasper drove deep into the 4A Playoffs last year. Jacket 2000, remember WestOrange-Stark met Ennis in the finals the year before that......To win 4A down here is tough-any teams that make the playoff drive right on up the ranks soundly beating those 4Ateams with the fancy stats in Districts that just are not loaded with top programs. The UIL has made an political move this year to lump 9 top Texas 4A teams in the same District-to eliminate their dominance in the Playoffs. Your stat only reasoning, will show some less than fancy Statistics for the teams that end up on top of that 9 quality team district, yet the losers can walk all over some Districts. It's amazing to us down here that Jasper and Nederland could walk all over their post season opponents, and you folks see them as weak on defense.

[Jacket2000]

I never said anything about Jasper not fielding a good team last year, nor did I say anything about Jasper not having a strong program. I was simply defending Matt in saying that Jasper's offense was much stronger than their defense last season. Which, obviously, is correct.
J2K

[Matthew328]

Old Card I hate to tell you this...but Jasper's D was BAD last year..no gettin around it...true the teams they played had talent but giving up the points they did there is no defending that...now I am sure they will improve this year...
Look at the numbers:
PA Jefferson gave up 35 points
W Orange-Stark gave up 26 points
PA Lincoln only gave up 12...
Beaumont Central gave up 20 points...
Newton gave up 23 points...
Beaumont Ozen gave up 48 points...
Lumberton gave up 23 points..
Gave up 9 to Livingston..
Gave up 21 to Vidor
Gave up 0 to Silsbee...good job D
Gave up 6 to PA Jefferson...revenge?
Gave up 23 to Waller..great offense 68 points
Gave up 47 to Hou Forest Brook...offense put up 50...another bail out
Gave up 35 to a mediocre Bay City offense..so that averages out to 23.4 points per game..sorry but you can't defend that you won't win tittles giving up those kind of points...and some of the teams you mentioned they didn't even play...Jasper is gonna have to improve their defensive play or they will go down becuase elite teams will at least slow you down..

[Matthew328]

By the way if Jasper's D impressed you must be easliy impressed....becuase the film I saw on them was mediocre at best...saw em against Bay City, Newton and Forest Brook...

[This message has been edited by Matthew328 (edited April 22, 2002).]

[Old Cardinal]

I am sorry, I preceived that the attack on Jasper was to promote Everman...I feel that many of the teams mentioned here and teams Jasper scrimmaged would romp through the 3A ranks....I will leave my further comments to myself with the exception that you stated that Bay City was a "mediocre" team-just don't think it is fair for those boys to be labeled like that.

[Matthew328]

You gotta read what I posted Old Card...I never said Bay City was a mediocre team..I said Bay City was a mediocre offense...they were carried by a great defense..and great defense will stop great offense...ie 35-7 Bay City over Jasper..and no I wasn't trying to promote Everman...if you look at how I rank teams I usually have Jasper and Everman right up there together...1 and 2..and for good reason..look at what both teams have back..it is unbeleiveable...and I don't think I was attacking Jasper I am just stating my opinion which isn't an outlandish one considering anyone who watched Jasper would tell yout they were mediocre at best on D....and I say they were down right bad...and the competiton down in that part of the state is good..but in 4A it wasn't the strongest last year..which tells me even more about Jasper's D..basically anytime they ran up against a good offense their D folded up...I know they made some changes to the staff and probably some personel changes as well..so I will reserve judgement on them for this year but from what I have to go on so far they will have to pick it up a LOT on defense

[kaorder1999]

Numbers dont lie....That's a lot of points to be giving up if you expect to win a title. Granted, they did play some teams...some good team at....but looking at numbers...Jasper didnt have a good D. I think that's a very good assessment by Matthew328! And just trying to promote Everman?...come on!

[Old Cardinal]

Guys, I am sorry but I believe that numbers can and do lie....I took two senior statistics courses many decade ago-the first thing we learned is how numbers can be mis-interperted. There is really know use going on with the discussion. I believe that Jasper would have had a great statistical defensive format had they not played the tough schedule that they had to play. On the other hand a "stats prove everything" person, says it does not matter the competition-the numbers speak for themselves. It's amazing the "stats prove everything" folks get blown out of the water as soon as the Postseason gets rolling real good. Check out "Old Green" a man with savvy, who looks at the competition levels as the top function for predicting-and smokes you folks every year!

[Matthew328]

I dunno about getting blown out of the water..I thought all 4 of us had excellent playoff records as well as regular season records in picking games..I'd put our record up against just about anyone else..as for numbers lying yes they do..I took a statistics course more recently and yes they normally don't tell the whole story...granted Jasper's competition was tough...but that part of the state in 4A wasn't as strong as it usually is...at least last year..and I do beleive Jasper's defensive numbers will improve next year..they can't get much worse..BUT when the numbers are that telling, something is amiss...you can't give up those kind of points on a consistent basis without having MAJOR defensive flaws...and breaking down Jasper's scheedule was it really that tough??
PA Jefferson 6-4 lost to Jasper in Rd 1
W. Orange-Stark 5-5 missed playoffs
PA Lincoln 8-3 lost in area Rd
Beaumont Central 1-8 5A
Newton 11-3 Class 3A Reg Finals
That was non-district now judging by the records they played an elite 3A school, a bad 5A a good 4A and 2 mediocre 4A's...now I know WOS is usually strong but you gotta admit they were down this year..Jefferson was decent but nothing to ride home about as evident by their round 1 whipping to Jasper...Jasper's district was OK but not one of the tougher ones in the area give me last year's 20-4A anyday..in the playoffs they played Jefferson and smoked them (Jefferson was OK at best) Waller who was 7-4 an OK 4A but again nothing to great Waller played 3A Diboll and won only by 8...Diboll was an early 3A playoff exit...then they beat Forest Brook who I'll give you was an elite 4A (12-0) but still giving up 47 isn't impressive..putting up 50 on Forest Brook was impressive however..then they finally lost to runner up Bay City who like I said had a mediocre offense and they put up 35..ok I am rambling with all these numbers and giving everyone tired-head...but what I am trying to say is yes numbers don't tell the whole story BUT when they are as telling as the number of points Jasper's D gave up you have to take them into account..that being said I still think Jasper is the odds-on favoite to win Division 1..but that is beacuase I think their D will improve...

[Jacket2000]

Matt, Im right there with ya on everything, EXCEPT your Jasper prediction. Im not saying they wont make some noise, and Im not saying that they wont reach the finals, and they very well could win it all. But, Im gonna go out on a limb right now, in April, and say that Jasper will not win a 3a football state championship in 2002. Everyone can write it down, and if they happen to win it all, then I'll eat my crow. But, I think they'll find 3a much tougher than they, or the rest of the state, is anticipating. As for who may win it,Im thinking Dangerfield, for some reason. Call it a hunch. Im also looking to see at least one region 1 team in the finals. West Texas is way overdue.
J2K

[This message has been edited by Jacket2000 (edited April 24, 2002).]

[Old Cardinal]

I am sorry that I can't agree...your whole contension is that these 4A's down here were not as strong this year. Nothing could be farther from the truth! Had all these teams competed in 3A most would have taken out ALL the 3A's. Example- Bay City with their "mediocre" offense would have swamped any of the 3A final fours in both divisions. I really think it is impossible to judge any part of programs that have gone 2 or 3 rounds in any playoffs as "mediocre". To downgrade the 4A's down here on the Coast shows that you have not grasp much info on Region III area football. I really think you are doing a good job with the 3A Down Low;however, I feel like that you may have bit off more than you can chew-now being the instant authority on Region III football.... While living in another part of the State.

[Matthew328]

I guess I'll have to disagree with you on that..I know comparing scores isn't much and usually it doesn't mean anything but think about this..Bay City was totally dominated by Ennis...24-0 I believe....Ennis only beat Waxahachie 21-15....6 points and what did Everman beat Waxahachie by? 6 points...just something to chew on....ask anyone who is knowledgeable about statewide football and they'll tell you Everman and Sinton and Forney for that matter would have competed very well in 4A..and more than one person on another board has said Everman for one would have been at least a top 10 4A...and to be honest would have played Ennis a lot tougher than Bay City did..and yes Bay City's offense was mediocre..check their numbers and you'll see that...and remember a LOT of their points were scored or set up by that great defense they had...and also I never said any of the programs down there were mediocre...where did you see that? I said Bay City's offense was mediocre...and yes last year was a down year for the teams in that part of the state (in 4A, but maybe DFW's 4A domiantion had something to do with that and skews the view a bit)..doesn't mean they were bad teams but none were their usual selves...and no I am not the instant authority on Region III football either...but I do remember picking most of my Region III games correct while living in another part of the state...I won't go back and bring up anyone else's predictions but I do recall many a wrong pick during last year's playoffs...I know your view is somewhat biased when it comes to that region as is my view sometimes biased when it comes to DFW...I am simply stating my opinion which is agreed on by most objective observers that Jasper's D was bad AND last year was somewhat of a down year in the greater Beaumont-Port Arthur area..that is not a shot at the area considering they have set high standards in the past with their great teams..there usually are 2 or 3 elite teams from that area in 4A..(PNG, WOS, Nederland, Lincoln, etc.) last year I just thought there were a lot of good teams but none that just jump off the page like some of the teams from past years...

[KT 2000]

Old Cardinal,

I do hail from the Region 3 area, and Matt couldn't be any more correct in his remarks.

Sure, Jasper had and will have impressive looking prospects, but then again so did Bill Clinton. Talent can only take a team so far in football. Jasper had a horrible defense last year. They looked against the second and third rate teams, but as soon as they ran into somebody decent they couldn't stay on the same field.

Jasper can't handle the big boys on the 4A block just yet like the La Marque's and Bay City's. Granted they are in a tough district, but they couldn't handle anyone decent. If you want to see what a good, well-coached defense looks like then go watch Bay City. Now that's a defense. Being impressed with Jasper's defense is like wetting your pants at the very thought of getting to watch paint dry.

[This message has been edited by KT 2000 (edited April 24, 2002).]

[This message has been edited by KT 2000 (edited April 24, 2002).]