3A Realignment Projections...

[KTJ]

what do some of yall think about the realignment coming up? who goes up? who goes down?

[LH Panther Mom]

Unless the UIL makes some very drastic changes, Liberty Hill will still be 3A.

[sinfan75]

The AD of the UIL said on tv durin halftime of Saturdays 5A game that they were lookin to reduce the number of teams in 3A.

[vet93]

I posted this last week on some possible projections. It will be difficult for the UIL. They will almost have to reduce the number of 3a schools in order to get anywhere close to a 2:1 ratio for 3a in terms of enrollment.

"I crunched some more numbers using last alignment's enrollment numbers again. I added some teams to 5a to account for Brethaupts statment to that effect and I accounted for a few extra teams going to 5a that are new schools. The numbers actually came out pretty similar to last years numbers. Here they are:

5A: >1845 236 teams
4A: 900-1844 209 teams 2.05 to 1 ratio
3A: 350-899 208 teams 2.57 to 1 ratio
2A: 175-349 207 teams 1.99 to 1 ratio
1A: <175 304 teams includes 6-man

This certainly evens things out and it satisfies the 2 to 1 ratio goal for enrollment in classes 2a and 4a, but a 2.57 to 1 ratio is still a little high for 3a considering the UIL's goal is 2:1. They might lower the upper end of 3a 40 to 50 students and raise the lower end 20 students to try and get a better spread on the ratios but then it makes 3A a very small division. Here are the revised numbers below.

5A: >1845 236 teams
4A: 850 to 1844 222 teams 2.17 ratio
3A: 370 to 849 182 teams 2.29 ratio
2A: 185 to 369 215 teams 1.99 ratio
1A: <185 309 teams

You can see the UIL's problem. In order to satisify the 2:1 ratio that they would like to have it would make class 3A a very small division. On the other hand...if they even out the number of teams, then it would raise the ratio in 3A to somewhere between 2.5-3 to 1."

[Junkyard]

What is this 2:1 ratio you are talking about I have never heard anything about it?

[BullFrog Dad]

Junkyard it's Enrollment ceiling:Enrollment floor

[Junkyard]

Thanks

[Cat22]

Hey Vet I like your second projection. No matter what Orangefield will stay in 3A for a while. They currently are around the 500 mark. Can't wait till February. Should be interesting.

[CheerMom]

Does any Rice people know what number they turned in? Just curious to see where we stand.
Thanks.

[punt]

If you will go to www.spectator-journal.com (http://www.spectator-journal.com) and then to sports you can scroll down and find a story about numbers turned in. Apparently whoever wrote the story called a lot of schools and got the numbers they turned in to the UIL.

[KTJ]

That link isn't working...

[GoTIgers]

Try ...... www.journal-spectator.com (http://www.journal-spectator.com)

[VWG]

I think that you will still see the 3A number increase into the mid 900's. I also think that the bottom number of 3A will be in the high 300's or even 400 range.
This is what has historically been the trend, for everything to increase. Bottom number and top number.

[Chris Hart]

VWG:
I think that you will still see the 3A number increase into the mid 900's. I also think that the bottom number of 3A will be in the high 300's or even 400 range.
This is what has historically been the trend, for everything to increase. Bottom number and top number.I agree, I expect the bottom number to be as high as 450.

[LH Panther Mom]

That would make us an even smaller 3A than we are now. eek! I'm not sure how many kids we reported this year, but 2002, I think it was 464.

[TarponFanInNorthTexas]

Chris Hart:

VWG:
I think that you will still see the 3A number increase into the mid 900's. I also think that the bottom number of 3A will be in the high 300's or even 400 range.
This is what has historically been the trend, for everything to increase. Bottom number and top number.I agree, I expect the bottom number to be as high as 450.If the low end does go up to 450, nearly all the members of 31-3A will drop down to 2A, which would cause all hell to break loose in South Texas trying to get teams into districts down there.

Also, how many kids did Rice Consolidated turn in? I know they're close to that 450 mark too.

[vet93]

The only problem with the 450 to high 900's scenario is that you would only have 174 schools in 3a (450-980). Even if you went all the way up to 450 to 1000, you would only have 178 schools. That would make for one huge 2a and you would have to be careful not to make it really rough on the smaller 2a schools. If Brethaupt follows through on his assertion to add 20 to 30 more schools into 5a, then the 450-high 900's scenario would also pinch 4a because you would be lopping off 4a schools from both the top and the bottom. That is why that I think that the bottom of 3a will almost certainly be under 400.

*The numbers used above were from the previous alignment.

[Old Cardinal]

To make for balance it would have to be 350-790...That would shove way more into 5A and leave 4A about the same(with a lot of new teams from 3A)....Also, for fairness there should be no 8 or 9 team districts in 3A. The 5 teams districts would become, at least, 6 team districts across the state.

[JasperDog94]

People talk about the 2:1 ratio, but with the 2 divisions, that makes things a lot more fair. It'll never be perfect, but (other than Jesus) what/who is? I think some of us are forgetting to take into account new schools. There are always new schools opening up in the 4A and 5A ranks. We'll just have to see how things shake down.

BTW - When was the last time that the top number in 3A went down?

[vet93]

Old Card...that would put about 184 schools in 3a using the last numbers...if you went up to say 850 it would be 196 schools. J-dog...I think that it has been a long time since the top end of 3a actually went down. However, from some of the statements coming from the UIL over the past year they seem to be committed to making 3a a little more equitable....so we may see something in terms of numbers that we have not seen in awhile. Boy...if old card is right in his prediction though...you are going to see alot of large 3a's squalling about going up to 4a.


Old Cardinal:
To make for balance it would have to be 350-790...That would shove way more into 5A and leave 4A about the same(with a lot of new teams from 3A)....Also, for fairness there should be no 8 or 9 team districts in 3A. The 5 teams districts would become, at least, 6 team districts across the state.

[Old Cardinal]

I think there will be some consolidation of small schools and Elysian Fields and some others growing into 3A enrollment naturally. That brings some more 3A size schools into the ultimate equation.

[Junkyard]

Old Cardinal:
To make for balance it would have to be 350-790...That would shove way more into 5A and leave 4A about the same(with a lot of new teams from 3A)....Also, for fairness there should be no 8 or 9 team districts in 3A. The 5 teams districts would become, at least, 6 team districts across the state.I think this is just wishfull thinking on your part so BC wont have to compete with WOS, Jasper, or Silsbee.
But there is one thing for sure no one will know until February.

[Old Cardinal]

Maybe so...But for sure there will be some folks elated and some folks unhappy when the February realinement takes place. I do know this, from past experience, the actual thought processes going on right now have no comparison to the politics that will determine the final placements by the UIL political gurus.