8-3a

[booger]

Who makes it out of this district? Iknow Liberty Hill is a lock but what about the other two spots? Who has the inside track? Wimberly? Llano? Burnet?

[Super_R]

Burnet is virtually a lock for DI

Wimberley controlls their own fate...If they beat Llano on Friday they are in...If Llano wins by a certian margin...then Llano could be in.

[duckpluck]

It can end in a 3 way tie for the final two spots.

That could happen if Llano beats Wimberley and then loses to LH. BUT, If Llano beats both Wimberley and LH, then Llano is district champs and Burnet stays home.
Wimberley would be the 3rd playoff spot.

From my understanding……
If a 3 way tie you go to point diff between all 3 teams games against each other. Only a max of 14 in a game can be used. So if a team wins by 30 you only get a plus 14.

That being said.

Burnet is 1-1 with a PLUS 8. (6 point loss and plus 14 on win)

Wimberley is currently plus 6

Llano is minus 14.

If Llano beats Wimberley by 11 that would give Llano a minus 3 and Wimberley a minus 5. Llano and Burnet go to playoffs and Wimberley would miss playoffs. Not sure what happens if Llano wins by 10. That would put point diff the same for both teams. I assume that Llano would still go because they just beat them.

I hope I have all my numbers right.

[Daddy D 11]

Who will LH match up with in the first round?

[duckpluck]

right now if it stays the same, Glen Rose, then Decatur, then a rematch with Brownwood.

All this IF Burnet is one of the three teams in the playoffs. Only way it cant happen is if Llano beats Wimberley and LH in the final two games.

[Daddy D 11]

Originally posted by duckpluck
right now if it stays the same, Glen Rose.

Where do you think we will play if it's Glen Rose?

[duckpluck]

Temple. At least that is what I am hearing as early possibilities.
That was a great venue last year.
Maybe somewhere in Kileen or Waco if something else.

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by duckpluck
then a rematch with Brownwood.
:thinking: :thinking:

[Daddy D 11]

Originally posted by duckpluck
Temple. At least that is what I am hearing as early possibilities.
That was a great venue last year.
Maybe somewhere in Kileen or Waco if something else.

Brownwood's always an option:evillol: :evillol:

It's somewhat neutral, and plus.. they won't be using it.

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by Daddy D 11
Brownwood's always an option:evillol: :evillol:

It's somewhat neutral, and plus.. they won't be using it.
:tongue: :tongue: You beat me! :p

[ziggy29]

Clear as mud right now, but I think the Llano-Wimberley game will clear a lot of things up.

Assuming Burnet doesn't lose to CL or Ingram, and assuming LH beats Llano next week:

* If Wimberley wins, they are in and Llano is out.

* If Llano wins by less than X points (still not sure *exactly* what X is here), we'll have a likely 3-way tie with Llano being odd man out due to lowest margin of victory/point differential. (*** edit: Note that in this case, Llano could still be in if they upset LH next week, and Burnet would be out if that happened.)

* If Llano wins by more than 'X', we'll again likely have a 3-way tie but with Wimberley being odd man out.

* Burnet is definitely in with a three-way tie for second at 4-2.

In any of these cases, Burnet is in -- assuming they don't get upset AND assuming Llano doesn't beat both Wimberley and LH. These unlikely outcomes could shake the apple cart some.

Burnet is almost certainly in. And we'll know more about the rest of the field after Friday night's game in Llano.

[Daddy D 11]

Is the LH game in Llano? I always loved playing and/or watching a game at Llano, just something about the place.

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by Daddy D 11
Is the LH game in Llano? I always loved playing and/or watching a game at Llano, just something about the place.
No -- that game is at LH. But the Wimberley game is at Llano -- should be pretty intense.

[Texasfootball2]

Originally posted by duckpluck
right now if it stays the same, Glen Rose, then Decatur, then a rematch with Brownwood.

All this IF Burnet is one of the three teams in the playoffs. Only way it cant happen is if Llano beats Wimberley and LH in the final two games. That third round game is definitley up in the air. Barring a mild upset by Monohans or Midland Greenwood, your third round possibilities are Sweetwater, Snyder/Brownwood winner (if BW beats Sweetwater friday), or Graham if they somehow get it. All of these teams are capable of getting to the third round in D2.

[Daddy D 11]

I want me some Snyder!:devil:

[booger]

Who else looks good to make it through to the regional games? I know that region one is loaded with good teams but who else can make some noise?

[Texasfootball2]

Originally posted by booger
Who else looks good to make it through to the regional games? I know that region one is loaded with good teams but who else can make some noise?
I have no idea who looks good in the other regions, it's all I can do to keep up with all the good teams in reg 1.

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by ziggy29
* If Llano wins by less than X points...
According to an article in today's Llano News, the value of X is 7. So going with that and assuming it's accurate for now, based on the results of the Wimberley @ Llano game, and again assuming no pathological results involving CL or Ingram beating Burnet, here are the possible scenarios after Friday -- the "so-far-definitive" guide to the 8-3A playoff race, based on the results of the Wimberley/Llano game:

* Wimberley beats Llano: LH, Wimberley and Burnet are in. This one is easy.

* Llano beats Wimberley by 7 or more: LH and Llano are in. Burnet and Wimberley wait for the results of Llano-LH the following week. If LH wins as expected, Burnet is in (Wimberley being the odd man out of a 3-way tie with the lowest margin of victory). If Llano upsets LH on 11/7, Wimberley is in if they beat F'burg that night (based on 2-way tie for third with Burnet at 4-2, whom the Texans beat head to head). If Llano upsets LH AND F'burg upsets Wimberley, Burnet is in again instead of the Texans.

* Llano wins by less than 6***: This is the tricky one. Then both the LH/Llano game and the Wimberley/F'burg games on 11/7 loom large. The Texans control their own destiny against the Billies : Win and you're in, lose and you're out. If Wimberley beats F'burg, Llano must also beat LH to make it; otherwise Burnet is in and the Jackets are out.

*** -- I don't know about the "Llano by 6" outcome in case of a three-way tie. It sounds like in a three-way tie, the team with the lowest margin of victory in games involving the three teams tied at 4-2 is out. But if Llano and Wimberley both win those by 6, then what? Does Llano win it based on head-to-head? Or does Wimberley go because they didn't have the largest margin of defeat -- or something else?

I think that's all accurate as of now... yikes, what a mess!

[Super_R]

Good post Ziggy. That was as clear as it can possible be stated.

The one thing that I don't believe is true is the "Margin of defeat" part. I'm almost positive that doesn't count. Some of the other tie-break tools are 1st downs and penetrations (crossing your opponents 20).

[lange4]

the x factor is 10. llano has to beat wim by 10 to be assured of the play-offs.

[wimbo_pro]

Originally posted by lange4
the x factor is 10. llano has to beat wim by 10 to be assured of the play-offs.

Didnt something like this happen in '05 as well? Thats when Wimberley beat LH at home, thought they won the district outright..then got whooped by Llano the following week and ended up district co-champs. BUT...Llano didnt win by a large enough margin to get in the play offs. Am I right about this?

[lange4]

No. What happened was Llano lost to Brady in a rain delayed game in Brady. Enough said. With that loss, being as Brady was not in the running for the playoffs killed Llano. We were 8-2 that year and missed the playoffs.

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by wimbo_pro
Didnt something like this happen in '05 as well? Thats when Wimberley beat LH at home, thought they won the district outright..then got whooped by Llano the following week and ended up district co-champs. BUT...Llano didnt win by a large enough margin to get in the play offs. Am I right about this?
'04 was when that happened. Brady was the 3rd rep from the district.

[wimbo_pro]

Originally posted by LH Panther Mom
'04 was when that happened. Brady was the 3rd rep from the district.

Right, right, right....I meant '04.

[booger]

so what is x.... 7 or 10? Who can confirnm this one??????

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by booger
so what is x.... 7 or 10? Who can confirnm this one??????
Don't know for sure, but I've heard 7 (or 6) more than 10 based on the belief that only *victory* margin counts.

I'm sure Coach Yeager has to know, though, because if Llano has the ball on the Wimberley 5 yard line with an 8 point lead and a minute to play, it would determine whether he took a knee or tried to score...

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by ziggy29
*** -- I don't know about the "Llano by 6" outcome in case of a three-way tie.
Oops. Guess what happened? :p

I *think* Llano makes it in a 3-way tie on the basis of being +6 in their win along with Wimberley and on beating the Texans. But even Coach Yeager didn't seem sure.

[bp80884]

WOW, the Wimberly loss to Llano game last night really made a confusing situation of this.

I have done all of the figuring I can based on 10 fingers and 10 toes and I am hoping someone can make sense of it all.

Since Burnet beat Llano head to head, does this have any bearing on the standing? This seems logical but the UIL is not always logical in there thought process.

According to the website below it shows Burnet ahead of Wimberly. I wonder if the UIL is as confused as me and will just refer to this website?

http://www.maxpreps.com/texas/football/3a-region-i-district-8/standings.aspx?leagueid=4f3baea8-fbe8-4374-b0d7-526a5f7e4d63&urpath=,local,league

I am just trying to figure out the division 1 opponent to China Spring. A Liberty Hill vs China Spring would be an awesome game, I was just hoping it would be a little further in the playoffs. They met a few years ago in the 1st round and LH took it to the Cougars. This game would seem to be more intriging since they are #1 (LH) & #2 (CS) in the state.

Please can't someone make any sense of this for poor little me?? I will gladly pay someone a cheese burger and a coke for the RIGHT answer.

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by bp80884
Please can't someone make any sense of this for poor little me?? I will gladly pay someone a cheese burger and a coke for the RIGHT answer.
If I had the RIGHT answer it'd be worth more than that. :D (I seriously have no clue....)

[bp80884]

Well, if CS-LH meet, I would love to say hi. I just hope it is in about a month.

[Bullaholic]

I'm certainly no expert on 8-3A, but I sure am a very interested party from a possible future Bulls playoff opponent standpoint:

I project it this way as of right now, unless something happens next week to change things:

8-3A
DI Burnet
DII(W) Liberty Hill
DII(R) Llano

7-3A
DI China Spring
DII(W) Glen Rose
DII(R) West

Rd 1-Bi-District

DI- Burnet vs China Spring
DII- Liberty Hill vs West
DII- Glen Rose vs Llano

DII- Bridgeport vs BYE

Rd 2- Area

DII- Bridgeport vs Glen Rose/Llano winner

[bp80884]

Originally posted by Bullaholic
I'm certainly no expert on 8-3A, but I sure am a very interested party from a possible future Bulls playoff opponent standpoint:

I project it this way as of right now, unless something happens next week to change things:

8-3A
DI Burnet
DII(W) Liberty Hill
DII(R) Llano

7-3A
DI China Spring
DII(W) Glen Rose
DII(R) West

Rd 1-Bi-District

DI- Burnet vs China Spring
DII- Liberty Hill vs West
DII- Glen Rose vs Llano

DII- Bridgeport vs BYE

Rd 2- Area

DII- Bridgeport vs Glen Rose/Llano winner

This is the way I see it too. But I am not the smartest fellow in the bB.

[VERNONLION#1]

So has Burnet secured a playoff already?

[bp80884]

Originally posted by VERNONLION#1
So has Burnet secured a playoff already?

That my friend would put a close to this entire string of posts.

Then Burnet would be D1, LH and Llano/Wimberly would be D2.

[Panther One]

Originally posted by VERNONLION#1
So has Burnet secured a playoff already?
Pretty much. They would need a Llano upset of Liberty Hill to be knocked out.

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by Panther One
Pretty much. They would need a Llano upset of Liberty Hill to be knocked out.
Unless F'burg upset Wimberley, in which case they'd be back in.

[ziggy29]

Well, here's another article that claims it's a "positive points" tiebreaker:

http://llanobuzz.com/pages/full_story?article-Jackets-upset-Texans-playoff-hopes-ride-on-points%20=&page_label=home_llano&id=338762-Jackets-upset-Texans-playoff-hopes-ride-on-points&widget=push&instance=llano_sports&open=&


The Yellow Jackets beat the Wimberley Texans for the first time since 2004 Friday and possibly clinched a playoff berth in the process.

The 20-14 win was too close for comfort; Llano ISD Superintendent Dennis Hill believed the Jackets had to win by seven to secure a playoff spot, but Head Coach David Yeager thinks the spread only had to be six.

The District 8-3A tiebreaker is a positive point system. The scores from other district games will make or break the Jackets’ hopes.

Of course, the article also makes some mistakes (or at least assumptions):


Llano is tied with Wimberley and Burnet for the playoff spot.

Actually, no. Right now, Llano is alone in second place at 4-1. The *assumption* is that there will be this messy tie after next week's games are played, assuming all of the favored teams win next week.

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by ziggy29
Well, here's another article that claims it's a "positive points" tiebreaker:

http://llanobuzz.com/pages/full_story?article-Jackets-upset-Texans-playoff-hopes-ride-on-points%20=&page_label=home_llano&id=338762-Jackets-upset-Texans-playoff-hopes-ride-on-points&widget=push&instance=llano_sports&open=&


Believes and thinks aren't very conclusive. lol

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by LH Panther Mom
Believes and thinks aren't very conclusive. lol
True. But don't you think this is something they should have absolutely *confirmed* before the game? Knowing exactly what you need would definitely influence your coaching decisions.

Let's pretend it was this same 20-14 score, only Llano had a first down at the Wimberley 5 with a minute to play. Wouldn't it be important to know whether you take a knee (if you needed to win by 6) or if you had to try to punch it in to the endzone (if you needed 7)? What if Yeager took a knee (assuming his belief that 6 points was enough) only to find out you missed the playoffs because you needed to win by 7?

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by ziggy29
True. But don't you think this is something they should have absolutely *confirmed* before the game? Knowing exactly what you need would definitely influence your coaching decisions.

Let's pretend it was this same 20-14 score, only Llano had a first down at the Wimberley 5 with a minute to play. Wouldn't it be important to know whether you take a knee (if you needed to win by 6) or if you had to try to punch it in to the endzone (if you needed 7)? What if Yeager took a knee (assuming his belief that 6 points was enough) only to find out you missed the playoffs because you needed to win by 7?
Exactly! I'm just confused as to why the exact rule wasn't already known quite some time ago. Aren't these the types of things that are determined before the season, at the very least? I don't know - I've never worked for a school, but it makes sense that it would be known ahead of time. :confused:

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by LH Panther Mom
Exactly! I'm just confused as to why the exact rule wasn't already known quite some time ago. Aren't these the types of things that are determined before the season, at the very least? I don't know - I've never worked for a school, but it makes sense that it would be known ahead of time. :confused:
And this didn't sneak up on anyone -- it looked like a fairly likely scenario for quite some time if the Jackets beat the Texans. We've been discussing it -- and Llano's required margin of victory -- for at least a couple weeks on this board.

That should have been plenty of time for the coaches involved to look through district bylaws and absolutely confirm the three-way tiebreakers used by the district. If we saw the can of worms that looked likely to open, didn't the coaching staffs?

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by ziggy29
If we saw the can of worms that looked likely to open, didn't the coaching staffs?
They might have been a little more concerned with winning games. ;)

[duckpluck]

Oh those coaches knew when they were asked by the Buzz. If they didnt they should be fired.
I think they know they are screwed unless they beat LH.

[lange4]

all my information says that Burnet stands at +17 Wimberley+6 Llano+6 since 2 teams are still tied they revert back to the top of the tie break rules which is head to head. that puts Llano in. This 3 -way tie is only if everything pans out like everybody thinks this week

[lange4]

and i would not put a lot of faith in the Buzz. They have numerous errors every week.

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by lange4
and i would not put a lot of faith in the Buzz. They have numerous errors every week.
Definitely true. Like I said, they reported it as if there already was a three way tie -- not just that one is likely to happen, assuming no surprises next week.

[Troybuilt]

Originally posted by booger
Who makes it out of this district? Iknow Liberty Hill is a lock but what about the other two spots? Who has the inside track? Wimberly? Llano? Burnet?

so does liberty hill play china spring in the first round of the playoff?

[ziggy29]

AAS messed it up, too:


8-3A

In: Liberty Hill

On The Bubble: Wimberley (4-1), Llano (4-1), Burnet (3-2)

Key Games: Llano at Liberty Hill, Burnet at Canyon Lake, Fredericksburg at Wimberley

- Wimberley gets in with a win or a Burnet loss

- Llano gets in with a win or a Burnet loss

- Burnet gets in with a win , a Llano loss and a Wimberley win

- If Burnet wins and Wimberley and Llano both lose, a second tiebreaker would have to come into play since there is no head-to-head scenario that works here. Llano beat Wimberley but lost to Burnet, Burnet beat Llano but lost to Wimberley and Wimberley beat Burnet but lost to Llano.

All that work only to be wrong because Wimberley isn't 4-1 in district...

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by lange4
and i would not put a lot of faith in the Buzz. They have numerous errors every week.
By the way: that article has been amended to take the "possibly" out of it -- and claims Llano is in, period. Still not convinced until I hear something from someone in an official capacity with the district, though.

Some added and changed text of the article:


The Yellow Jackets beat the Wimberley Texans for the first time since 2004 Friday and clinched a playoff berth in the process.

...

Burnet and Wimberley have both lost to No. 1 ranked Liberty Hill, who Llano plays next week at Liberty Hill. Yeager said that if Llano wins, they face West; if they lose, the Jackets will play Glen Rose.

[NastySlot]

Originally posted by ziggy29
By the way: that article has been amended to take the "possibly" out of it -- and claims Llano is in, period. Still not convinced until I hear something from someone in an official capacity with the district, though.

Some added and changed text of the article:


hey did you get the pm i sent you?

[booger]

So who is in and who is out ? Everybody knows LH is in but are they big school or small? What factors have to be looked at?

[Texasfootball2]

Correct me if I'm wrong, and I know you will.


Hasn't Burnet beaten both Llano and Wimberely.

And now that Llano beat Wimberely they are virtually in, and the only spot left is Burnet or Wimberely and Burnet plays a weak opponent.:thinking:

Like I said, I may be wrong, because I'm going off memory here with Burnet.

And if Burnet gets in they are definitley the big school.

[NastySlot]

Originally posted by Texasfootball2
Correct me if I'm wrong, and I know you will.


Hasn't Burnet beaten both Llano and Wimberely.

And now that Llano beat Wimberely they are virtually in, and the only spot left is Burnet or Wimberely and Burnet plays a weak opponent.:thinking:

Like I said, I may be wrong, because I'm going off memory here with Burnet.

wimberley beat burnet by six

[Texasfootball2]

Originally posted by NastySlot
wimberley beat burnet by six

Ok,

Wimberely beat Burnet by 6 Wim +6 Burnet -6
Burnet beat Llano by 23 Burnet +14 Llano -14
Llano beat Wimberely by 6 Llano +6 Wim -6

Totals in three way tie: Wimberely +/- 0
Burnet +8
Llano -8

So if Llano loses and both Burnet and Wimberely win Llano is out.

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by Texasfootball2
Ok,

Wimberely beat Burnet by 6 Wim +6 Burnet -6
Burnet beat Llano by 23 Burnet +14 Llano -14
Llano beat Wimberely by 6 Llano +6 Wim -6

Totals in three way tie: Wimberely +/- 0
Burnet +8
Llano -8

So if Llano loses and both Burnet and Wimberely win Llano is out.
I don't know if it makes a difference in your post, but negative points don't count, only positive, with 17 max (I think I read). So it's Burnet +17, Wimberley +6, Llano +6. Head to head, so Llano over Wimberley.

[NastySlot]

Originally posted by LH Panther Mom
I don't know if it makes a difference in your post, but negative points don't count, only positive, with 17 max (I think I read). So it's Burnet +17, Wimberley +6, Llano +6. Head to head, so Llano over Wimberley.

thats what was said in our field house also......three way tie and burnet is in.........wim/llano.......llano in on head to head.

[Texasfootball2]

Originally posted by LH Panther Mom
I don't know if it makes a difference in your post, but negative points don't count, only positive, with 17 max (I think I read). So it's Burnet +17, Wimberley +6, Llano +6. Head to head, so Llano over Wimberley.

Thats interesting, I think in Dis. 2 that both - and + points count, but I'm going to look into it.

[solocam]

Llano is in regrdless if they win or lose
Burnet will be in after their win friday
Cats are in
Burnet is D1

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by LH Panther Mom
I don't know if it makes a difference in your post, but negative points don't count, only positive, with 17 max (I think I read). So it's Burnet +17, Wimberley +6, Llano +6. Head to head, so Llano over Wimberley.
Is that confirmed? Almost everything I'm hearing now is pretty much saying that same thing so I suspect it's probably true, but I don't know if there's any definitive statement to that effect. If what you posted (and which seems to be the most common theory today) is true, then Llano is definitely in and Wimberley needs to win AND get help from Llano or Canyon Lake or else Burnet is in.

Don't want a premature celebration, y'know... :D

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by ziggy29
Is that confirmed?
I don't know. I can confirm I posted it. :D The positive & 17 I got from a pretty decent source. There was the whole thing wimbo typed up the other week, which had about 18743 "if" things, but 2 games have passed, so I "think" Llano is in. Just don't quote me on any of it! :D

[LH Panther Mom]

As of TODAY:

LH - 1
Llano - 2
Burnet/Wimberley - 3

Burnet/Canyon Lake & Wimberley/Fredericksburg: determines Burnet's & Wimberley's playoff fate

A Burnet loss & Wimberley win, Burnet is out and Wimberley is in. Burnet & Wimberley losses, a 3-way tie for 3rd between Burnet, Wimberley & Fredericksburg. Right? I think????? :eek: :eek:

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by LH Panther Mom
I don't know. I can confirm I posted it. :D The positive & 17 I got from a pretty decent source. There was the whole thing wimbo typed up the other week, which had about 18743 "if" things, but 2 games have passed, so I "think" Llano is in. Just don't quote me on any of it! :D
18,743? Is that anywhere near eleventy-three? Because I think it's more like eleventy-forty now! ;)

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by LH Panther Mom A Burnet loss & Wimberley win, Burnet is out and Wimberley is in. Burnet & Wimberley losses, a 3-way tie for 3rd between Burnet, Wimberley & Fredericksburg. Right? I think????? :eek: :eek:
You're conveniently leaving out one other game and its potential impact on the outcome. It reminds me of Fonzie trying to say "I was wrong." Cute! :D

Anyway, IF the game you omitted turns out the way you assume, I think you have it. Among plausible scenarios with your assumption in place, yes -- Wimberley is out unless they beat the Billies AND Burnet loses to Canyon Lake.

But in reality, I think you can put the chances of a Burnet loss in the same category as the chances of the sun rising in the west tomorrow. And the chances of a three-way tie for third are about as likely as my 401K returning to year-ago levels tomorrow. But if that three-way tie happened, Wimberley would presumably be in because they beat BOTH Burnet and F'burg.

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by ziggy29
You're conveniently leaving out one other game and its potential impact on the outcome.
No, it's not left out. The way I see it (and I could be wrong) is that LH & Llano are both in. We each control our own destiny, but (and again I could be wrong) a win/loss won't affect whether or not we make the playofs. If we win, it can only (for playoffs) affect D2 seeding & the same if Llano wins. Right? (Maybe??)

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by LH Panther Mom No, it's not left out. The way I see it (and I could be wrong) is that LH & Llano are both in. We each control our own destiny, but (and again I could be wrong) a win/loss won't affect whether or not we make the playofs. If we win, it can only (for playoffs) affect D2 seeding & the same if Llano wins. Right? (Maybe??)
Ah, I see here now. Yes, I know LH is in and I'm pretty sure at this point that Llano is in. What I didn't see in your description was this possibility: If Llano upsets LH and Wimberley beats F'burg, Burnet is out even if they win; in that case Burnet and Wimberley would be tied for third at 4-2 and in a two-way tie, Wimberley has the head-to-head and Burnet's toast.

In other words, Burnet doesn't *need* to lose for Wimberley to make the playoffs. They could win and miss the playoffs -- if the Jackets surprised the Panthers. I guess technically you didn't address that scenario, though, so you weren't exactly wrong.

The outcome of the Llano-LH game doesn't seem to affect whether we each make the playoffs, but it sure as heck affects Burnet and Wimberley because a 3-way tie favors Burnet and a 2-way tie favors Wimberley.

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by ziggy29
Ah, I see here now. Yes, I know LH is in and I'm pretty sure at this point that Llano is in. What I didn't see in your description was this possibility: If Llano upsets LH and Wimberley beats F'burg, Burnet is out even if they win; in that case Burnet and Wimberley would be tied for third at 4-2 and in a two-way tie, Wimberley has the head-to-head and Burnet's toast.

In other words, Burnet doesn't *need* to lose for Wimberley to make the playoffs. They could win and miss the playoffs -- if the Jackets surprised the Panthers. I guess technically you didn't address that scenario, though, so you weren't exactly wrong.

The outcome of the Llano-LH game doesn't seem to affect whether we each make the playoffs, but it sure as heck affects Burnet and Wimberley because a 3-way tie favors Burnet and a 2-way tie favors Wimberley.
:doh: :doh: I knew there was more to the theory wimbo had. Good catch! So, we'll just go with my theory since we all know LH is going to put on a slot-t clinic for Llano. :inlove:

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by ziggy29
But if that three-way tie happened, Wimberley would presumably be in because they beat BOTH Burnet and F'burg.
Wow -- no one noticed my mental flatulence here, because this if this happened, Wimberley could not have beaten the Billies, since if they did, the Texans would finish at 4-2, not 3-3! If this three way tie for 3rd at 3-3 occurred between Burnet, Wimberley and F'burg (meaning Burnet and Wimberley both lose) -- with about the chances of a comet slamming into Earth tomorrow -- Burnet would still be in unless F'burg beats Wimberley by at least 15.

Yes, technically, although it would take several miracles, it seems Fredericksburg is still technically alive, albeit on life support. But they basically need to draw a royal flush. And I think a royal flush may be more likely than a Canyon Lake win over Burnet, so they might need more than that.