Cuero, La Vega and Liberty Hill ALL inching towards Division I

[WOS87]

If the season ended today all three would have the highest enrollments among the top 3 or 4 teams in their respective district standings.

[LH Panther Mom]

It's highly doubtful, in my opinion, that we will go DI when you look at the remaining games.

Burnet - 2-2:
OPEN
Ingram
Canyon Lake
(My guess is they end with 4-2 record.)

Fredericksburg - 0-3:
Ingram
Canyon Lake
Wimberley
(My guess is they end with 2-4, with 3-3 being stretch, but a possibility.)

Canyon Lake - 1-2:
Llano
Fredericksburg
Burnet
(My guess is they end with 1-5 record, but very well could pull an upset over Llano or Fredericksburg.)


If I had to pick right now, I'd say Burnet DI, Liberty Hill W (and DC) & Wimberley R.

[solocam]

Originally posted by LH Panther Mom
It's highly doubtful, in my opinion, that we will go DI when you look at the remaining games.

Burnet - 2-2:
OPEN
Ingram
Canyon Lake
(My guess is they end with 4-2 record.)

Fredericksburg - 0-3:
Ingram
Canyon Lake
Wimberley
(My guess is they end with 2-4, with 3-3 being stretch, but doable.)

Canyon Lake - 1-2:
Llano
Fredericksburg
Burnet
(My guess is they end with 1-5 record, but very well could pull an upset over Llano or Fredericksburg.)


If I had to pick right now, I'd say Burnet DI, Liberty Hill DC & Wimberley R. X2

[WOS87]

If Llano were to beat Wimberley (not likely but definitely possible), and beat Canyon Lake (as they should).... they could still lose to Liberty Hill and end up with a 3-way tie with Wimberley, Burnet and Llano for 2nd place.

That leaves open the possibility that you would have LH, Wimberley and Llano as the three playoff representatives.

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by WOS87
If Llano were to beat Wimberley (not likely but definitely possible), and beat Canyon Lake (as they should).... they could still lose to Liberty Hill and end up with a 3-way tie with Wimberley, Burnet and Llano for 2nd place.

That leaves open the possibility that you would have LH, Wimberley and Llano as the three playoff representatives.
Burnet has the head-to-head over Llano, so if the above happened, I believe they would be in & Llano at home, unless I'm not seeing something I should. :thinking:

[WOS87]

Originally posted by LH Panther Mom
Burnet has the head-to-head over Llano, so if the above happened, I believe they would be in & Llano at home, unless I'm not seeing something I should. :thinking:

If Llano beats Wimberley you would have the following set of games:

Llano beat Wimberley
Wimberley beat Burnet
Burnet beat Llano


Who's the odd-man out??

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by WOS87
If Llano beats Wimberley you would have the following set of games:

Llano beat Wimberley
Wimberley beat Burnet
Burnet beat Llano


Who's the odd-man out??
:doh: :doh: Yeah, that's the part I was missing. :D

Hmmmm... :thinking: :thinking: I guess it depends on the district tie-breaker and the Llano/Wimberley score. Presuming it's a 14-pt max differential, Burnet would have +14 by the Llano win and Wimberley has +6 by the Burnet win.


So, if Llano defeated Wimberley by +7, that would leave Wimberley at home. Right? :thinking:

[WOS87]

Although after looking at the actual scores, unless you use a different tie-break method other than point differential, Burnet is pretty much assured of making the playoffs.

Wimberley beat Burnet by 6 pts
Burnet beat Llano by 25 pts

No matter what, Burnet has +19 in the point differential so unless there is a major upset in Burnet's final two games... they are in.

[WOS87]

But.... IF (and it's an enormous IF) Llano were to upset Liberty Hill AND beat Wimberley you would almost be assured of having LH, Llano and Wimberley as the 3 playoff representatives and LH would go DI

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by WOS87
But.... IF (and it's an enormous IF) Llano were to upset Liberty Hill AND beat Wimberley you would almost be assured of having LH, Llano and Wimberley as the 3 playoff representatives and LH would go DI
True!


I've watched enough of Wimberley & Llano over the past 12-14 years to know anything is possible.

[pirate4state]

I'd say it's official, with Gonzales losing to Goliad, that Cuero is going D1.

Gonzales will lose to Cuero & Yoakum.

[WOS87]

So in the absence of any major upsets it's looking like the Region III favorites in D2 will be Gilmer, Carthage and WOS with whomever wins out being the favorite to advance to the state finals if both La Vega and Cuero are out of the picture

[SintonFan_inAustin]

Originally posted by WOS87
So in the absence of any major upsets it's looking like the winner of Gilmer-WOS in the 3rd round would be a favorite to advance to the State Finals in D2 if La Vega and Cuero are both out of the picture. lets not get to ahead of ourselves :D



GO Pirates!!

[WOS87]

Originally posted by SintonFan_inAustin
lets not get to ahead of ourselves :D



GO Pirates!!


Oh yeah... I guess the chance of both Ingleside and Robstown being shut out of the playoffs (to push Sinton to D1) is pretty slim now isn't it?


;)

[Buckeye80]

Originally posted by WOS87
So in the absence of any major upsets it's looking like the Region III favorites in D2 will be Gilmer, Carthage and WOS with whomever wins out being the favorite to advance to the state finals if both La Vega and Cuero are out of the picture

If Rusk beats Jasper, then the odds are that Carthage will go D1, and Jasper will start playing with the orange ball.

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by WOS87
Although after looking at the actual scores, unless you use a different tie-break method other than point differential, Burnet is pretty much assured of making the playoffs.

Wimberley beat Burnet by 6 pts
Burnet beat Llano by 25 pts

No matter what, Burnet has +19 in the point differential so unless there is a major upset in Burnet's final two games... they are in.
What I see in terms of the 8-3A playoff chase:

LH is in. They have two games against solid district opponents left, and they *could* be upset in one, but no way do they lose twice. And even if they did lose twice -- almost inconceivable -- they would still win a tiebreaker with Burnet at 4-2 based on head-to-head results.

Burnet is in, based on the 23-point win over Llano and the fact that there's no realistic way they lose to Canyon Lake or Ingram. They will finish 4-2, and in a potential 3-way tie scenario for second place, the margin of victory in the Llano game puts them in, leaving Wimberley and Llano scrambling for position.

The only way I can see Burnet missing the playoffs is -- if I've figured it right and assuming Burnet wins out from here -- LH is stunned by BOTH Wimberley and Llano, AND if Llano beats Wimberley. If that happened, Wimberley and Llano would both be 5-1 and LH and Burnet tie at 4-2, with LH winning the head-to-head tiebreaker. The chances of ALL that happening are so close to zero that I'll say Burnet is definitely in.

[WOS87]

Originally posted by ziggy29
What I see in terms of the 8-3A playoff chase:

LH is in. They have two games against solid district opponents left, and they *could* be upset in one, but no way do they lose twice. And even if they did lose twice -- almost inconceivable -- they would still win a tiebreaker with Burnet at 4-2 based on head-to-head results.

Burnet is in, based on the 23-point win over Llano and the fact that there's no realistic way they lose to Canyon Lake or Ingram. They will finish 4-2, and in a potential 3-way tie scenario for second place, the margin of victory in the Llano game puts them in, leaving Wimberley and Llano scrambling for position.

The only way I can see Burnet missing the playoffs is -- if I've figured it right and assuming Burnet wins out from here -- LH is stunned by BOTH Wimberley and Llano, AND if Llano beats Wimberley. If that happened, Wimberley and Llano would both be 5-1 and LH and Burnet tie at 4-2, with LH winning the head-to-head tiebreaker. The chances of ALL that happening are so close to zero that I'll say Burnet is definitely in.

LH doesn't have to lose to Wimberley...

IF LH beats Wimberley, loses to Llano AND Llano beats Wimberley.... the standings would most likely be:

Llano 5-1
LH 5-1
Wimberley 4-2
Burnet 4-2

and Wimberley won the head-to-head with Burnet


That would put Llano, LH and Wimberley in the playoffs with LH going D1

[ziggy29]

Originally posted by WOS87
LH doesn't have to lose to Wimberley...
Yeah, I just realized that when I thought through it more. Basically, Burnet's in unless Llano runs the table. But given that the Jackets would have to beat Wimberley AND LH, I like Burnet's chances.

[Rabid Cougar]

Originally posted by WOS87
So in the absence of any major upsets it's looking like the Region III favorites in D2 will be Gilmer, Carthage and WOS with whomever wins out being the favorite to advance to the state finals if both La Vega and Cuero are out of the picture
If Cameron takes out both Caldwell and Navasota, I would have to throw them into the mix.

[easttexas3a]

What is the likelyhood of waco la vega going d1?

Also btw Carthage will be in region 3 division 2 along with diboll, both teams are pretty dang good.

[WOS87]

Originally posted by easttexas3a
What is the likelyhood of waco la vega going d1?

Also btw Carthage will be in region 3 division 2 along with diboll, both teams are pretty dang good.

It's looking quite good since Lorena beat Waco Connally...

I'm predicting Lorena and Connally to tie for 3rd (both with 2-3 records in district with Lorena winning the head-to-head tiebreaker getting the 3rd playoff spot)

La Vega will go D1 unless either Connally or Robinson makes the playoffs

[Buckeye80]

Originally posted by easttexas3a
What is the likelyhood of waco la vega going d1?

Also btw Carthage will be in region 3 division 2 along with diboll, both teams are pretty dang good.

But only if Jasper makes the playoffs, which means Jasper beating Rusk. I don't think Center is going to make any noise and Huntington is well, Huntington. If Rusk wins that game, the district will finish 1) Carthage, 2) Diboll, and 3) Rusk most likely. Hello D1 Carthage!

[duckpluck]

The big point win by Burnet may not matter. Most tie breaking systems only give credit of a Max plus per game like 14 points regardless of how much you win by. To prevent running up
scores.

So I guess we need to find out what tie breaker will be used in District 8.

[lange4]

Nobody has said that it is point differintial anyway. The tie break for D-8 may just be a coin flip. So like we said at start of the year. Win or stay Home. Do not leave it to a COIN TOSS.

[JR2004]

You know what's even more fun than predicting who goes where with 2 or 3 games still to be played? WAITING TO SEE WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS! :)

[lange4]

Whats actually more fun than that is GOING to the games and WATCHING.