Top 25 polls and their underlying assumptions

[Pudlugger]

Most of these polls have as one of their main underpinnings the assumption that a football team this season will outperform or perform as well as it did last season as a function of the number of returning starters. Nominally this works only when the correlate holds true, that these same players will reproduce or improve from their prior performances. The reasons why this does not always hold true and therefore the polls are more often then not erroneous are many.

First, players are not a constant, they vary from game or situation especially in high school football where factors such as emotions and distractions(think fights with girl friends, parents, coaches, grades, etc) play a big role.

Also, football is a team sport and team work is most critical in winning the game. Newcomers and returning players must establish a working relationship on and of the field. Sometimes this is very positive and the result is greater than the sum of the parts. This synergy is often referred to by coaches and football junkies as intangibles, heart or chemistry. Bottom line is you either have it or you don't. How many teams have we seen that are loaded with talent but fall apart on the field under pressure? Think of Marlin in 2003 against Atlanta in the final when they just laid down when they got behind. Then think of Bandera in 2002 winning in double overtime and coming out of the shadows of Region 4 unheralded and under the radar.

Finally, there is that old bug a boo we call luck. No team can perform at the level of third round state without plenty of luck along the way. Injuries, favorable match-ups, a recovered fumble here and there, the list is long.

So where is this going you might ask? Well, polls are fun and it is a little like gambling . It feels good to be right. But you have to take them with a grain of salt. Ultimately the game must be played and the best teams will stand in the end.

[nunya]

Agreed, and the biggest factor, unfortunately, is overconfidence. Many teams (or at least some of their players) occasionally assume big wins in a previous week or two means "piece of cake" against opponents with more losses without taking into account who those assumed "weaker" opponents have played that might have been MUCH stronger.

Selective effort can spell "doom" for teams, particularly this week. Here's hoping the Hornets don't underestimate Madisonville. They were a pre-season playoff pick and realize (at home) this game could be the biggest one for them since Rockdale, Cameron and Navasota (and even Taylor) are left.

Playing at 100 percent is the only guarantee, and again, nothing can be taken as a given.

[pirate4state]

La Grange miss the cut again?

[Bullaholic]

Originally posted by pirate4state
La Grange miss the cut again?

:stirpot:

[I_DONT_CARE]

Originally posted by pirate4state
La Grange miss the cut again?
MAYBE THIS WILL HELP. :rolleyes:


http://pixiestixkidspix.files.wordpress.com/2007/08/cookie-bite-web.jpg

[pirate4state]

Originally posted by Bullaholic
:stirpot:

Maybe, but after all that reading that was the underlying assumption I made! :D

[Pudlugger]

On this board there are posters and then there a poseurs. :D

The Leps will prove their worth in the next few weeks then we will know who is who LOL.

[Rocket]

Originally posted by Pudlugger
Most of these polls have as one of their main underpinnings the assumption that a football team this season will outperform or perform as well as it did last season as a function of the number of returning starters. Nominally this works only when the correlate holds true, that these same players will reproduce or improve from their prior performances. The reasons why this does not always hold true and therefore the polls are more often then not erroneous are many.

First, players are not a constant, they vary from game or situation especially in high school football where factors such as emotions and distractions(think fights with girl friends, parents, coaches, grades, etc) play a big role.

Also, football is a team sport and team work is most critical in winning the game. Newcomers and returning players must establish a working relationship on and of the field. Sometimes this is very positive and the result is greater than the sum of the parts. This synergy is often referred to by coaches and football junkies as intangibles, heart or chemistry. Bottom line is you either have it or you don't. How many teams have we seen that are loaded with talent but fall apart on the field under pressure? Think of Marlin in 2003 against Atlanta in the final when they just laid down when they got behind. Then think of Bandera in 2002 winning in double overtime and coming out of the shadows of Region 4 unheralded and under the radar.

Finally, there is that old bug a boo we call luck. No team can perform at the level of third round state without plenty of luck along the way. Injuries, favorable match-ups, a recovered fumble here and there, the list is long.

So where is this going you might ask? Well, polls are fun and it is a little like gambling . It feels good to be right. But you have to take them with a grain of salt. Ultimately the game must be played and the best teams will stand in the end.


Nice post.

[JR2004]

Originally posted by pirate4state
La Grange miss the cut again?

ROFL :clap: :clap:

[navscanmaster]

wow. I was thinking the same thing as p4s, but he did make a good dialogue nonetheless.

[44INAROW]

Originally posted by Pudlugger
On this board there are posters and then there a poseurs. :D
.



:D :D :D classic.........:clap:

[sweetwater07]

Originally posted by nunya
Agreed, and the biggest factor, unfortunately, is overconfidence. Many teams (or at least some of their players) occasionally assume big wins in a previous week or two means "piece of cake" against opponents with more losses without taking into account who those assumed "weaker" opponents have played that might have been MUCH stronger.

Selective effort can spell "doom" for teams, particularly this week. Here's hoping the Hornets don't underestimate Madisonville. They were a pre-season playoff pick and realize (at home) this game could be the biggest one for them since Rockdale, Cameron and Navasota (and even Taylor) are left.

Playing at 100 percent is the only guarantee, and again, nothing can be taken as a given.


prime example of overconfidence IMO is the 05 qtr final game with sweetwater/snyder...we had already beat them in district play so everyone assumed it would be just as easy to beat them in the playoffs......everyone knows the end to that story...lol

[Pudlugger]

Looks like the top 25 will be realigned a little this week. Like I said, polls don't matter that much.