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View Full Version : 2008 WOS87 3A Power Ratings for Week 1



WOS87
09-08-2008, 02:36 PM
We are a couple of weeks away (or more) from being able to connect all 177 teams in the classification to each other through games played so this is essentially comparing individual pieces of a giant jigsaw puzzle (so take it with a VERY LARGE grain of salt). I thought I'd get it started now so that it I don't have to go back and compile 5 weeks worth of games midway through the season all at once.

The same mathematical formula is used this year as last year except instead of only counting games between two 3A schools, I'm now including ALL games with at least one 3A school as an opponent, thus all games are counted. This doubles the amount of work it takes to calculate though since I now have to include all non-3A opponents in the ratings mix.

The top half of the table is the 177 current 3A programs showing their rank in 3A alone and their overall rank (which includes the 158 non-3A opponents that we have played against in the first two weeks).

The bottom half of the table shows where the 158 non-3A opponents rate relative to each other.

All 335 ratings added together should sum to exactly zero and each rating can be doublechecked very easily to show that it is valid. As an example I'll show how Carthage's rating checks back on to itself.

Week 0: Carthage lost to Kilgore (rating 58.78) by 13 points ---> 58.78 - 13 = 45.78
Week 1: Carthage beat Henderson (rating 15.78) by 30 points ---> 15.78 + 30 = 45.78

Their average is thus 45.78 which is the rating listed for Carthage.

If you perform the above calculation on all 335 schools listed below you should end up with the rating listed in the table below for each and every one of them.

The ratings should become increasingly more accurate as the season progresses.

Region I teams are listed in BLUE
Region II teams are listed in RED
Region III teams are listed in GREEN
Region IV teams are listed in PURPLE


http://idisk.mac.com/cboehme69-Public/scores/2008/3aprweek1.gif

wimbo_pro
09-08-2008, 02:53 PM
Wimberley #7 and LH #18???? Definitely true that we need more data!!!

WOS87
09-08-2008, 03:09 PM
Like I said, we currently have several portions of the puzzle in which it is only valid to compare teams within the same pieces. I've normalized each piece to zero so that you can get some semblance of relative performance.

Liberty Hill's piece of the puzzle consists of only 7 games (games in which there was any common opponent between two 3A teams)

Liberty Hill 28, Giddings 26
Liberty Hill 28, Abilene Wylie 25
Giddings 53, La Vernia 28
Abilene Wylie 14, Vernon 6
La Vernia 49, Bandera 19
Vernon 14, Altus OK, 11
Bandera 31, Lago Vista 33

Wimberley's piece of the puzzle consists of 11 games

Wimberley 40, Luling 0
Wimberley 28, Dripping Springs 35
Luling 8, Blanco 42
Dripping Springs 40, Gonzales 13
Blanco 63, Canyon Lake 0
Gonzales 26, Lockhart 34
Canyon Lake 14, SA Brandeis 38
Lockhart 29, La Grange 14
La Grange 47, Yoakum 21
Yoakum 16, Columbus 28
Columbus 38, Van Vleck 20

Wimberley is rated highly due to having the best outcome against their two opponents compared to any other 3A team that's played them (Luling and DS)

wimbo_pro
09-08-2008, 03:26 PM
Like you said, this will become more relevant in time.

Gobbler-Buck
09-08-2008, 04:12 PM
WOS.....like always :clap: :clap: :clap:

Love your analysis!!

Hope you are right about the Gobblers.

IHStangFan
09-08-2008, 04:17 PM
3 out of the top 5 are Reg IV teams. I love when you do stuff like this WOS87. I like to try to extrapolate theories as to why some teams fit at certain spots, etc. For example....3 of the top 5 are Reg. IV teams as stated above. And their rankings being what they are.....seems to suggest that maybe for example...Needville ....ranked above LH? My theory is that the top of Reg IV may have a significantly wider talent gap from top to bottom than say...Reg I or Reg III...hence....the teams (say LH for example) may be a tougher team..but due to their schedule/opposition....may have a lower power rating based on their performances against said opponents...meanwhile..the class of Reg. IV has a higher power rating because of the shellacking they put on their lesser opponents (due to the talent gap mentioned between top echelon and lower teams in Reg. IV). Anyway....ignore this post...because it was more me thinking out loud than an actual post with structure and merit.

Thanks.

crabman
09-08-2008, 08:15 PM
This is kind of like the Six Degrees of Bacon. :)

buff4life
09-09-2008, 10:10 AM
Smithville ranked above LH...I LOVE IT :D

88bobcats
09-09-2008, 10:15 AM
Liberty Hill's power rating will go up substantially after Giddings and Wylie win some big games.....