WOS87 Preseason Ranking of 3A's Most Consistent Winners

[WOS87]

I preface this by stating very clearly that this does not at all reflect my personal opinion on which teams I predict will win a state title in 2008. All it is, is one set of stats that (mathematically) is likely to have a good correlation with success in the upcoming season.

Out of all of the individual factors I've gone through in analyzing accuracy of preseason polls, BY FAR, the number one factor that most closely correlates to future success.... is past success.

Think of it as a ranking of the usual suspects. It is simply the programs that have won the most consistently recently....

The way I calculated it is as follows... The maximum number of losses a team can have in one season is 10. So I normalized all 3A programs by seeing how many wins they've all notched in the time it has taken them to amass their 10 most recent losses. At the bottom of the list you will find programs such as Lamesa and Ingram Moore with a score of 0, as they have gone 0-10 over the last 10 games played. The top of the list is shown below. (i.e. Celina is 154-10 over the last 164 games played, Gilmer is 79-10 over the last 89 games played, Cuero is 65-10, etc.)

1. Celina - 154
2. Gilmer - 79
3. Cuero - 65
4. Liberty Hill - 60
4. Tatum - 60
6. West Orange-Stark - 54
7. Giddings - 40
8. Abilene Wylie - 38
9. Snyder - 36
10. Rio Hondo - 35
11. Wimberley - 34
12. Ingleside - 30
12. Hondo - 30
12. Monahans - 30
15. Sweetwater - 29
15. Farmersville - 29
17. China Spring - 28
18. Argyle - 27
19. Dallas Madison - 26
19. Waco La Vega - 26
19. Prosper - 26

And yes, the teams moving up from 2A are ranked higher than they should be and the teams moving down from 4A are ranked lower than they should be IF this were an all-inclusive ranking, which it is not. I fully expect Brownwood to make their presence known and I don't think Tatum and Farmersville will have as much of a cakewalk as they've had the past two years.

But if you asked me to pick 10 teams that would have the highest combined number of wins at the end of the upcoming season, I probably would only change one or two from the ones that are listed above.

[LH Panther Mom]

Good stuff! :clap:

[Nursebetty]

Thanks for the information.........it's interesting to read how you've done it!

[BILLYFRED0000]

Cool WOS. I think it would be of interest to include 3a and under and 4a and 5a in two groups for the same stats.

[STANG RED]

Good stuff WOS!
I wish there was some way to account for strength of schedule. But I doubt the list would change much, other than what order they fell in. I do see several very good teams on the list that come from weak districts, and that skews their numbers heavily in their favor. But most of those teams also seem to do well in the playoffs against stiff competition.

[Sweetwater Red]

Originally posted by STANG RED
I do see several very good teams on the list that come from weak districts, and that skews their numbers heavily in their favor.

If you want to say Snyder...just say Snyder.:thinking:


:stirpot: :evillol: :stirpot:

[STANG RED]

Originally posted by Sweetwater Red
If you want to say Snyder...just say Snyder.:thinking:


:stirpot: :evillol: :stirpot:

LOL, well I was trying to avoid having one of em jump on here and rub that baseball championship in our faces, but I guess you just took care of that.:mad: :p

Besides, I believe I said "several teams", in an effort to keep the peace. But they know who they are.:D

[pirate4state]

LOL when I first read the title of this thread I read "whiners" instead of winners :thinking:

[Phil C]

Great work! Thank you for sharing.

[icu812]

Thanks WOS87. I'd bet Van is the only team with at least 25 wins not to make the playoffs in the past 3 years :confused:

[Ranger Mom]

Originally posted by pirate4state
LOL when I first read the title of this thread I read "whiners" instead of winners :thinking:

Looking at the list, some of them could actually be interchangeable between winner and whiner!!;)

[Sweetwater Red]

Originally posted by Ranger Mom
Looking at the list, some of them could actually be interchangeable between winner and whiner!!;)

I wonder if it's a coincidence that the top ten schools are also
some of the best at recruiting and acquiring move-ins.:thinking:


a little more...:stirpot: :devil:

[waterboy]

Originally posted by Sweetwater Red
I wonder if it's a coincidence that the top ten schools are also
some of the best at recruiting and acquiring move-ins.:thinking:


a little more...:stirpot: :devil:
Jealousy won't get you players!:evillol: Winning will!:D

[lostaussie]

Originally posted by Sweetwater Red
I wonder if it's a coincidence that the top ten schools are also
some of the best at recruiting and acquiring move-ins.:thinking:


a little more...:stirpot: :devil: :doh::doh:

[Sweetwater Red]

Originally posted by lostaussie
:doh::doh:

I haven't seen you on in forever so I thought it was safe to
post that but nooooooo here you show up out of nowhere.

:doh: :doh: :doh:


For the record Gilmer does NOT RECRUIT! :D

[lostaussie]

Originally posted by Sweetwater Red


For the record Gilmer does not recruit! :D A truer statement has never been written:D

[Daddy D 11]

Originally posted by waterboy
Jealousy won't get you players!:evillol: Winning will!:D

Well then we should be full of move ins:devil: :p

[lostaussie]

Originally posted by Daddy D 11
Well then we should be full of move ins:devil: :p If you build it they WILL come. and ya'll have definetaly built it!!!

[Sweetwater Red]

Originally posted by Daddy D 11
Well then we should be full of move ins:devil: :p

Do you know how many kids were on Liberty Hill's HS football
teams last year.

I know when Celina and Snyder played last year Celina had
a ton of players. Before the pre-game coin toss it looked like
Celina had enough players standing side by side to nearly
stretch from one endzone to the other.:eek:

[waterboy]

Originally posted by Sweetwater Red
Do you know how many kids were on Liberty Hill's HS football
teams last year.

I know when Celina and Snyder played last year Celina had
a ton of players. Before the pre-game coin toss it looked like
Celina had enough players standing side by side to nearly
stretch from one endzone to the other.:eek:
I don't know how many players Liberty Hill had on their end of the field, but when they did their pre-game warmups they covered the entire north end of the field. I think I counted more than a hundred suited up. I'll bet that at least half of them came from the JV and freshman teams. Abilene Wylie had even more, I think. I don't know if they did this for all of their playoff games, but LH did in the championship game. The purpose being, maybe, letting the kids get used to that atmosphere.

[DaHop72]

Originally posted by Sweetwater Red
If you want to say Snyder...just say Snyder.:thinking:


:stirpot: :evillol: :stirpot: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:





































:D

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by waterboy
I don't know how many players Liberty Hill had on their end of the field, but when they did their pre-game warmups they covered the entire north end of the field. I think I counted more than a hundred suited up. I'll bet that at least half of them came from the JV and freshman teams. Abilene Wylie had even more, I think. I don't know if they did this for all of their playoff games, but LH did in the championship game. The purpose being, maybe, letting the kids get used to that atmosphere.
46 of ours were Varsity, then there were a handful of freshmen (maybe 8?), the rest JV. They don't just suit up for the games; they practice with the team & are the "fun team". There were probably a few that actually played, mostly of special teams. I know the freshman QB played about 1/2 qtr against Pleasanton.

[Sweetwater Red]

Originally posted by LH Panther Mom
46 of ours were Varsity, then there were a handful of freshmen (maybe 8?), the rest JV. They don't just suit up for the games; they practice with the team & are the "fun team". There were probably a few that actually played, mostly of special teams. I know the freshman QB played about 1/2 qtr against Pleasanton.

If any of the underclassmen play in a varsity game that are
automatically on the varsity team. The freshman QB that played
will be on the varsity team next season.

[gatordaze]

Originally posted by Sweetwater Red
If any of the underclassmen play in a varsity game that are
automatically on the varsity team. The freshman QB that played
will be on the varsity team next season.

I dont think that is true. In fact UIL rules allow a JV player to play an entire game on Thursday night and suit up on Friday for Varsity and play as long as they do not play more than the equivelant of one quarter.

[BILLYFRED0000]

Originally posted by Sweetwater Red
If any of the underclassmen play in a varsity game that are
automatically on the varsity team. The freshman QB that played
will be on the varsity team next season.

I know that's not true. You can play in the playoffs without having to be on vars next year. I know that we played in one game in the 05 run 3 different quarterbacks and 13 different running backs and some of them were white hats. Might see some of them this year finally get to play vs. Celina always plays their jv all the way thru and they get to practice some as the scout team etc as well as play when the game is out of reach in the playoffs. One reason they get so good. Lots of practice time.

[crabman]

I wonder if it's a coincidence that the top ten schools are also
some of the best at recruiting and acquiring move-ins

Don't put Cuero in this group. Our numbers at high school have gone from around 750 a few years ago to 594. The entire district keeps losing kids. We would love to get some move-ins. It just doesn't happen in this part of the state.

Wish we were closer to DFW like Celina and Gilmer.

[charlesrixey]

Originally posted by crabman
Don't put Cuero in this group. Our numbers at high school have gone from around 750 a few years ago to 594. The entire district keeps losing kids. We would love to get some move-ins. It just doesn't happen in this part of the state.

Wish we were closer to DFW like Celina and Gilmer.

Gilmer isn't close enough to dallas to pick up growth move-ins

[crabman]

I always thought Gilmer was in the Pilot Point, Celina, Decatur, Bridgeport fringe area of DFW. I honestly never even looked it up on a map. You guys really are way to the east. Kind of in the middle of nothing.

Sorry for lumping you in with those "other guys".