Speculation......

[BILLYFRED0000]

In money and commodities markets, speculation revolves around money. And we are talking big money. Probably 65 percent of Americans have money in Oil in some way or another vis a via Mutual funds. They all trade technically which is another way to say by ignoring market fundamentals when a certain benchmark is set. That means that the market as a whole is dysfunctional because the trade occurs due to some imaginary set point and not because of a market driven condition. It is a simple excercise in logic. If you trade because oil hit x dollars or sell for the same reason automatically then you are ignoring any market information whatsoever. In this setting, the technical point out weighs the market. When enough large blocks of money trade this way the market procedes based on technical points instead of market value. Then add people who try to speculate or guess and you get what we have today. A flawed oil market.

[BILLYFRED0000]

In any event, the different problems overseas from Nigeria and Sierra Leone to the Saudis refusal to ad surplus are the drivers in a fear market. Iraq had little to do overall because Saddam had no oil except for food to sell. Which was next to nothing. Other market fundamentals that were and are ignored in gas prices are types of fuel and refining capacity. In essence the market problems we find ourselves in mostly revolve around the regulatory fix that environmentalists have put us into starting with the air we breathe moving to the ground we use. I am sure we could move the 8 caribou in ANWR off of that 2000 acres without too much trouble but the environmentalists care more about them than they do about us.

[Black_Magic]

Aymen!! Those darn Tree huggin Environmentalist are resposible for the price of gas going from$1.50 a gallon 4 years ago to $3.85 now... Those Oil executives have been taking pay cuts and the Oil stock holders have been getting screwed royaly lately because of them. I think If the Government would subsidize out oil companies they may have a better chance of staying in the black . they could at least be able to aford to pay thier undepaid CEOs a fair wage..

[BILLYFRED0000]

You are a little off there. The environmentalists are the reason we cannot drill here. But they are only responsible for perhaps 20 percent of the current hop in prices. Read the rest of the previous posts for that information.

[Ranger Mom]

Originally posted by BILLYFRED0000
You are a little off there. The environmentalists are the reason we cannot drill here. But they are only responsible for perhaps 20 percent of the current hop in prices. Read the rest of the previous posts for that information.

I can't believe you are arguing with him....he is "ALL KNOWING"...didn't you know?!?!?:eek: :eek: :eek:

[BILLYFRED0000]

Originally posted by Ranger Mom
I can't believe you are arguing with him....he is "ALL KNOWING"...didn't you know?!?!?:eek: :eek: :eek:
I am not arguing. He is. I am simply discussing the facts as they exist. He is trying to defend his position.

[Black_Magic]

I dont know who he is arguing with but I sure cant understand why anyone cant see it. I think He is right on! I just think that someone should take steps to help out all those people a from exon when they cant make ends meet. with the morgage problems looming I worry how they will make the house payments. I wonder if they get a discount if they buy gas:thinking: they should.

[Black_Magic]

Originally posted by BILLYFRED0000
I am not arguing. He is. I am simply discussing the facts as they exist. He is trying to defend his position. Who is he? I cant understand why anyone would think otherwise. I think the environmentalist are at fault. If it were not for them we would have $1.00 a gallon gas right now.

[Ranger Mom]

I really shouldn't be asking this.....




so, I'm not even going to!!

[BILLYFRED0000]

Originally posted by BILLYFRED0000
You are a little off there. The environmentalists are the reason we cannot drill here. But they are only responsible for perhaps 20 percent of the current hop in prices. Read the rest of the previous posts for that information.

The flaw in your undestanding is not seperating the crude market from the gas market. While fundamentally connected gas has different market pressures that do not apply to Crude. Gas is a refined product. And it also must be refined into 37 different blends buy law in this country. The logistical mess alone from this set up costs money. But the biggest money maker in this group are all the governments in this country and the amount of taxes they place on it. In Texas I believe it is 40 cents per gallon or something like that. I really don't know exactly. Another large portion is the price of crude which accounts for app 70 percent of a gallon of gas at todays prices or roughly 2.80. Add the gas taxes and the price of crude and you can see that the oil companies make their money on the crude product and not the refined product.
Based on market factors oil is probably about 40 dollars a barrel over valued but the big block traders coupled with increased demand drive a fear of "what would happen if" and that increases the cost artificially. It always amazes me that when people speculate about the future they ususally assume the worst and then wonder what happened when it did not happen.

[Ranger Mom]

I have to admit to being confused BillyFred.

You quoted yourself and are responding to your quote!!!!

I don't know WHO to believe now!!:confused: :confused: :p :p :D

[BILLYFRED0000]

Originally posted by Ranger Mom
I have to admit to being confused BillyFred.

You quoted yourself and are responding to your quote!!!!

I don't know WHO to believe now!!:confused: :confused: :p :p :D

Yes. I responded to continue my train of thought. I am not able to keep posting so I post a little then continue the thought.

[BILLYFRED0000]

Originally posted by Black_Magic
Who is he? I cant understand why anyone would think otherwise. I think the environmentalist are at fault. If it were not for them we would have $1.00 a gallon gas right now.

REalistically if we had already producing wells in the areas we know prices would be stable around 2.00.

[espn1]

Originally posted by BILLYFRED0000
REalistically if we had already producing wells in the areas we know prices would be stable around 2.00. I don't know why you call them environmentalists? They're Liberal Democrats. These are the same groups that have thwarted Oil Exploration and Drilling, as well as shut down the building of any new refineries. I would definitely Vote Democratic if I were all of you. :confused: :confused: :confused:

[garciap77]

Originally posted by espn1
I don't know why you call them environmentalists? They're Liberal Democrats. These are the same groups that have thwarted Oil Exploration and Drilling, as well as shut down the building of any new refineries. I would definitely Vote Democratic if I were all of you. :confused: :confused: :confused:

Well if we know who they are why cann't we stop them?

[espn1]

Originally posted by garciap77
Well if we know who they are why cann't we stop them? That's the $64000.00? I think it it take a crisis like this to finally get it done. You're going to see a lot of Libs say that they want to drill now. When in the past they hindered the process or should I say made it dead in the water. That is just one of many topics that could be brought up about their bastardized thought process.

[BIG BLUE DEFENSIVE END]

We need to stop trading futures on the stock market. That is where the speculation is occuring, and oil companies love it. We're making them money.

[BIG BLUE DEFENSIVE END]

Originally posted by espn1
That's the $64000.00? I think it it take a crisis like this to finally get it done. You're going to see a lot of Libs say that they want to drill now. When in the past they hindered the process or should I say made it dead in the water. That is just one of many topics that could be brought up about their bastardized thought process.

When I think about bastardized thought process and politics, I think of trickle down economics and the war in Iraq, among other things.

[STANG RED]

Originally posted by espn1
I don't know why you call them environmentalists? They're Liberal Democrats. These are the same groups that have thwarted Oil Exploration and Drilling, as well as shut down the building of any new refineries. I would definitely Vote Democratic if I were all of you. :confused: :confused: :confused:

I just wish they would be honest enough to go by their real name. They are Socialists, and they have taken over the Democratic party. They are actually the Socialist party now. Which is fine really. This is a free country, and we have always had a strong socialist contingency. But if you look up the definitions of socialism and democracy, you will see that the democratic party has no business using the name. If your a socialist, at least be man or woman enough to admit it! We know who you are anyway.

[BIG BLUE DEFENSIVE END]

Originally posted by STANG RED
I just wish they would be honest enough to go by their real name. They are Socialists, and they have taken over the Democratic party. They are actually the Socialist party now. Which is fine really. This is a free country, and we have always had a strong socialist contingency. But if you look up the definitions of socialism and democracy, you will see that the democratic party has no business using the name. If your a socialist, at least be man or woman enough to admit it! We know who you are anyway.

Well, since people have used the excuse for the War in Iraq to promote freedom of their people from tyranny then that makes the Republican party Socialists too right? I mean, they are promoting and providing benefits to the Iraqi people by using government resources and spending.

[Black_Magic]

Well Right now the Guy who just wrote that book just burns me up!! That Liar!! saying the bush admin used propaganda to promote the Iraq war.. We should all just deal with things and not expect the government to help at all. after all the Oil companies are just getting by. In fact Im sure that things will be ok for them once it gets to $200 a barrel. at that point they May be able to pay an executive enough for him to make his morgage payment. I wish we could pass an amendment and do away with the two term limit of the presidents. ;)

[STANG RED]

Originally posted by BIG BLUE DEFENSIVE END
Well, since people have used the excuse for the War in Iraq to promote freedom of their people from tyranny then that makes the Republican party Socialists too right? I mean, they are promoting and providing benefits to the Iraqi people by using government resources and spending.

Wow, I don’t think even Stretch Armstrong could make a stretch that far, but if you really want to put that big of a spin on it, and you really believe that, then there is really nothing I can say that will make sense to you. But if you want to go that way, you might as well go all the way it. We must have also been socialists during WWI & WWII for going over to free Europeans from the tyrants as well. Our government sure spent lots of money and government resources fighting those wars to benefit Europeans.
Personally I can’t see how anyone can draw any correlations between socialism and fighting for freedom from tyrants.

[Ranger Mom]

This thread is walking a thin line!

[Black_Magic]

Originally posted by BIG BLUE DEFENSIVE END
Well, since people have used the excuse for the War in Iraq to promote freedom of their people from tyranny then that makes the Republican party Socialists too right? I mean, they are promoting and providing benefits to the Iraqi people by using government resources and spending. Oh Bull corn! We are liberators. the people of Iraq Love us. they cant get enough of us. its part of the reason we are still there. You Liberals dont get it! We are going to give liberty to the world!! weather they think they need it or not! they are just to ignorant to know whats best for them so we need to show them the way. Its ok that we are in a deficit right now.. Its WAR! if your gonig to spend its better to spend on Jets than on schools or bridges.

[Black_Magic]

Originally posted by STANG RED
Wow, I don’t think even Stretch Armstrong could make a stretch that far, but if you really want to put that big of a spin on it, and you really believe that, then there is really nothing I can say that will make sense to you. But if you want to go that way, you might as well go all the way it. We must have also been socialists during WWI & WWII for going over to free Europeans from the tyrants as well. Our government sure spent lots of money and government resources fighting those wars to benefit Europeans.
Personally I can’t see how anyone can draw any correlations between socialism and fighting for freedom from tyrants. You tell him Stang!

[Ranger Mom]

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