My guess at the 3A enrollment range

[Matthew328]

Ok drum roll

Top end: Pampa 1031
Bottom end: Godley 411 or Littlefield 411? (unconfirmed on both)


Pretty big range but that gives 3A 198 schools and should fill 32 districts with at least 6 teams..it's a big range but thats the only way I can see doing it...

They could go with just 28 districts and have a bye in each region and probably raise the bottom cut to 475 ish

[Matthew328]

Several 4A opt ups (5 I think) which if they would have stayed 3A could have made the range slightly better also possibly in the 430's

[VWG]

Originally posted by Matthew328
Ok drum roll

Top end: Pampa 1031
Bottom end: Godley 411 or Littlefield 411? (unconfirmed on both)


Pretty big range but that gives 3A 198 schools and should fill 32 districts with at least 6 teams..it's a big range but thats the only way I can see doing it...

They could go with just 28 districts and have a bye in each region and probably raise the bottom cut to 475 ish

If the UIL has 3A spread out from 411 to 1031, that will suck.
Think about those schools within the 500 and below range. 3A will have the greatest disparity from top to bottom enrollment wise.

[Old Tiger]

Originally posted by VWG
If the UIL has 3A spread out from 411 to 1031, that will suck.
Think about those schools within the 500 and below range. 3A will have the greatest disparity from top to bottom enrollment wise. Two of the smaller schools were state champions.

Division 1 - Liberty Hill(599)
Division 2 - Celina(429)

[Matthew328]

Originally posted by VWG
If the UIL has 3A spread out from 411 to 1031, that will suck.
Think about those schools within the 500 and below range. 3A will have the greatest disparity from top to bottom enrollment wise.

3A always has the greatest disparity....UIL tried to erase the disparity and it failed miserably....this year we only had 31 districts and several 4 and 5 team districts...UIL has publicly said they do not want 4 and 5 team districts anymore...the only way to fix this in 3A is to have a wide disparity...until the UIL eliminates teams from opting up there will always be this problem in 3A under the current system

[super1]

It is possible that AAA may have several districts with no teams in them, giving certain districts a bye in the first round of the playoffs. That way they can keep districts with 6-8 teams and still maintain the 2.1:1 ratio that they prefer.

[Gehrig]

Mark Cousins said this is a great possibility last week at the THSBCA Convention. He strongly intimated that Conference AAA would have at least 6 teams/district but some districts likely would be completely empty.

[LeonJr]

Leon says that nobody knows nothing!:D

[VWG]

Originally posted by Matthew328
3A always has the greatest disparity....UIL tried to erase the disparity and it failed miserably....this year we only had 31 districts and several 4 and 5 team districts...UIL has publicly said they do not want 4 and 5 team districts anymore...the only way to fix this in 3A is to have a wide disparity...until the UIL eliminates teams from opting up there will always be this problem in 3A under the current system

I know 3A has always had the greatest disparity, but to widen the gap even further? Two wrongs don't make a right... as the old saying goes.

[Matthew328]

I think having byes is silly...it doesn't give an even playing field....if we are to resort to having several empty districts I think we should just scrap having 32 districts in 3A and just go with 16 8-10 team districts in 3A......that's probably the only way to keep it a 2-1 ratio..

To be honest Pampa at 1031 won't be a contender to make any noise to win state as is.....Celina and Tatum would ROLL Pampa so the small school argument doesn't hold too much water for me....

[Old Tiger]

Originally posted by Matthew328


To be honest Pampa at 1031 won't be a contender to make any noise to win state as is.....Celina and Tatum would ROLL Pampa so the small school argument doesn't hold too much water for me.... I don't think enrollment is a big factor as one would think. Sure it is a factore but it's not a huge one.

[VWG]

We've talked about how much of a factor enrollment plays in 3A sports on here before. If I am not mistaken, WOS87 had a breakdown and there was a distinct advantage of having a larger enrollment when it came to making the playoffs.

Those teams that are very competitive that have less than 500 total enrollment are few and far between. If you have a larger enrollment you have a larger pool of kids to choose from. It gives you an advantage over the smaller schools, and if the UIL is going to stretch 3A out from 400+ to 1000+ they aren't doing the kids any favors. That's the bottom line.

[Matthew328]

I can't see it being a fair deal if for example the UIL only allows 28 districts instead of 32 districts...is that far if you are in a district that has a first round bye and you only have to win 4 playoff games instead of 5 (or 5 vs. 6).....there won't be a fair way to do 3A...

The only fair way would be to have just 16 8 team districts....but then the question is do you push the 2A cut too high and send the problems down a class and have a school with nearly 600 playing a school with 200....

[Matthew328]

Looking at the #'s to do 28 6 team districts we'd be looking at a cutoff of Hillsboro at 461......so the range would be 461-1031.....

That's a 2.23-1 ratio

4A 2102-1031 is a 2.03-1 ratio


not sure its much better but what I'll probably do is two mock realignments one with the enrollment range of 411-1031 and one with just 28 districts and 461-1031

[setxsports]

Kirbyville will drop to 2A if the bottom number goes up at all.

[Matthew328]

I haven't seen them listed in 3A in any mock realignments I've seen

[old warrior]

Cousins said at the baseball clinic that there would be 3a districts with no teams in them. They have also said that they are doing away with 4 team districts.

these are things UIL directors have said publicly

[Old Green]

TTT

[SpeedOption]

Originally posted by Gehrig
Mark Cousins said this is a great possibility last week at the THSBCA Convention. He strongly intimated that Conference AAA would have at least 6 teams/district but some districts likely would be completely empty.


Originally posted by LeonJr
Leon says that nobody knows nothing!:D

Leon is right.

[old warrior]

which leads me to believe we are looking at a cutoff somewhere between 450-475

[Ingleside Fan]

The Caller Times in Corpus is calling for the following.


5A 2086 & Up
4A 1015-2085
3A 440-1014
2A 205-439
1A 204 & Below

[Texasfootball2]

Originally posted by Matthew328
Ok drum roll

Top end: Pampa 1031
Bottom end: Godley 411 or Littlefield 411? (unconfirmed on both)


Pretty big range but that gives 3A 198 schools and should fill 32 districts with at least 6 teams..it's a big range but thats the only way I can see doing it...

They could go with just 28 districts and have a bye in each region and probably raise the bottom cut to 475 ish

I agree with your prediction, even though the spread is great. If their goal is truely to eliminate 4 and 5 team districts, they really have no choice but to move the # above 1000. At 1031 they bring in Lub. Est., Big Spring, Mineral Wells, and Alvarado, all of which would be reg 1 schools not to mention other schools that would help balance out the other regions. Even at this they may still have to move three or four teams from Reg 2 into Reg 1.

Blue your right about Celina and Liberty Hill, but you are talking about two of the best programs. Can the bottom enrollments compete, sure! but for the most part the schools with 500 or less will take it on the chin most of the time. Just off the top of my head I can only think of three, maybe four teams that were in the top 25 this year that had less than 500 and two of them are Celina and LH.

[txrangers]

I think the cutoff will be 1030.

Also, I think the UIL is considering cost of travel in determining this alignment. In 2A, Blanco is in Region 1. heck, they are 30 minutes from San Antonio.

[Maroon87]

Originally posted by Matthew328
Ok drum roll

Top end: Pampa 1031
Bottom end: Godley 411 or Littlefield 411? (unconfirmed on both)




Beeville supposedly turned in 1035. :eek:

[Blastoderm55]

Originally posted by Maroon87
Beeville supposedly turned in 1035. :eek:

We sure did. Guess we'll be the smallest team in 4A. :D

[BwdLion_80]

Originally posted by Blastoderm55
We sure did. Guess we'll be the smallest team in 4A. :D

If the cutoff if 1030, you won't be the smallest. Pampa turned in 1031.

[Blastoderm55]

Originally posted by BwdLion_80
If the cutoff if 1030, you won't be the smallest. Pampa turned in 1031.

Ok, we'll be one of the smallest.

[BwdLion_80]

On the other hand, if the cutoff is 1032!:doh:

[Gontex]

I have seen a couple of mocks that do not include Yoakum, Luling or Goliad in 3A. Are these schools small enough to be sliding back down into 2A? That would be a huge loss for Cuero and Gonzales because those three schools have been in the same district for what seems to be the last 100 years, at least since Gonzales dropped back down from 4A to 3 A in the early 90's. I realize that is not 100 years, but it just seems like that has been a fixture for many years.

[Maroon87]

Originally posted by Blastoderm55
We sure did. Guess we'll be the smallest team in 4A. :D

I don't think we're too far ahead of you.