PDA

View Full Version : realignment.... best model to date



BILLYFRED0000
12-31-2007, 08:23 PM
This is from a guy that used to work on the issue and looks pretty close to what the real deal might be. Smoaky was kind enough to post this from his friend.

I received the following information from Robert Barrett, and he loved working these numbers. Based on information Smoaky.com and other sources, he's come up with a potential model for the February, 2008 Reclassification.

David Smoak

*****

Smoaky,

The UIL Realignment subject was very important to me before I retired. A friend contacted me with data form your website and data that he had accumulated. He asked me to apply the UIL policy to this data. I thought you might enjoy the reading.

By the way a fellow from Hughes Springs and I presented the current 2 to 1 policy the UIL Legislative Council in 1995. At the time we knew the UIL staff liked the plan due to its fairness; however, a couple of the people on the council ran inference against the plan because they enjoyed sitting at the top of their respective classifications. Justly they retired and impartiality prevailed.

Please review the attached.

-----

I used the unofficial data form more than 250 Texas high schools. I was able to obtain enrollment data on most of the marginal enrollment (bubble) schools. I applied the UIL Reclassification and Realignment Policy and used the UIL’s long standing practice of using significant gaps in enrollment numbers as a dividing point. Examples of these gaps are in AAAA to AAAAA the jump is from 2034 to 2048, in AAA to AAA the jump is from 958 to 984, in AA to AAA the jump is form 419 to 428 and in A to AA are 198 to 201. Of course the gaps in the lower classes are smaller and subject to more deviation.
Schools electing to pay up a class will have a slight impact on the final numbers.

2008 UIL Reclassification Model

CLASS ENROLLMENT # OF SCHOOLS 08 RATIO 06 RATIO
AAAAA 2051+ 247 schools
AAAA 959-2050 231 schools 2.13 2.08
AAA 420-958 178 schools 2.28 2.28
AA 199-419 213 schools 2.1 2.12
A 99-198 169 schools 2.0 1.94

Dropping from AA to A
1. Canadian 198
2. Garrison 198
3. Stanton 198
4. Rice 197 (actual figure is 203.5)
5. Junction 196
6. Timpson 195
7. Yorktown 195
8. Big Sandy 194
9. Stamford 193
10. Waskom 192
11. Hawkins 190
12. Crawford 189
13. Riesel 187
14. Blue Ridge 186.5
15. Ganado 186
16. Stinnett West Texas 184
17. Mart 184.5
18. Mason 175
19. Stratford 173
20. Italy 172
21. Itasca 171

Moving up from A to AA
1. Harper 209
2. Groveton 203

Dropping From AAA to AA
1. Sabine
2. White Oak

Moving up from AA to AAA
1. Aubrey
2. Navarro
3. Clifton
4. Tatum
5. New Boston
6. Anna

Dropping from AAAA to AAA
1. Burnet
2. Paris
3. Fredericksburg
4. Brownwood

Moving up from AAA to AAAA
1. Royce City
2. Mabank
3. Medina Valley
4. Frisco Wakeland

Dropping from AAAAA to AAAA
1. Longview

Moving from AAAA to AAAAA
1. Richmond Foster

Antec
12-31-2007, 08:29 PM
Edna will most likely moved from 2A to 3A

sahen
12-31-2007, 08:32 PM
i dont understand why not a single model has Baytown Lee dropping to 4a....it has been in the paper and was a huge deal and is a forgone conclusion that with the opening of the new Baytown highschool they will be 4a making 2 4a schools in baytown and leaving Baytown Sterling 5a....(the new school would eventually become 5a)

that said I hope this model and others are right....the Baytown Lee vs. Baytown Sterling game is something else, i'd hate for it to be watered down by not being a district game...

SpeedOption
12-31-2007, 08:34 PM
Not bad but the cutoffs will be evens.
CLASS ENROLLMENT
AAAAA 2050
AAAA 960-2049
AAA 420-959
AA 200-419
A 99-199

Something like that. They usually cut on even numbers. look at pat history. I think there will be more than 178 in 3A. 32 x 6 is 192. I think there will be at least that many. Get ready to travel.

jimmyceatworld
12-31-2007, 08:41 PM
Originally posted by SpeedOption


I think there will be more than 178 in 3A. 32 x 6 is 192. I think there will be at least that many. Get ready to travel.

But there were only 170 something this last year. What makes you think there will be at least 192 besides the fact that 32 x 6 = 192?

Jack_Daniels
12-31-2007, 10:23 PM
Because the UIL grew tired quickly of hearing about 4 team districts, a district with no teams in it, and the unbalance of the number of teams in a region. The point is made of competitive balance. The UIL will try to be more balance conscious this time. And dont be surprised if there is no byes in class A somehow. They will put the burden of travel on schools. And take some heat off of themselves.

BILLYFRED0000
12-31-2007, 10:26 PM
Originally posted by Jack_Daniels
Because the UIL grew tired quickly of hearing about 4 team districts, a district with no teams in it, and the unbalance of the number of teams in a region. The point is made of competitive balance. The UIL will try to be more balance conscious this time. And dont be surprised if there is no byes in class A somehow. They will put the burden of travel on schools. nd take some heat off of themselves.

Yes but the whole thing trickles down from 5a. They get first consideration 3a gets to go with what they have.

charlesrixey
12-31-2007, 10:48 PM
Originally posted by BILLYFRED0000
Yes but the whole thing trickles down from 5a. They get first consideration 3a gets to go with what they have.

if the UIL wants to have six team districts, then they obviously will have to have a slightly smaller number in all of the classes above it

possible, but that's a lot of work to make something that a lot of people in west texas are going to hate
(and not just west texas)

BTW, Prosper will be 4A as well

setxsports
12-31-2007, 10:56 PM
Originally posted by sahen
i dont understand why not a single model has Baytown Lee dropping to 4a....it has been in the paper and was a huge deal and is a forgone conclusion that with the opening of the new Baytown highschool they will be 4a making 2 4a schools in baytown and leaving Baytown Sterling 5a....(the new school would eventually become 5a)

that said I hope this model and others are right....the Baytown Lee vs. Baytown Sterling game is something else, i'd hate for it to be watered down by not being a district game... Lee is staying 5A according to their coach! They turned in a tad to much.

Jack_Daniels
12-31-2007, 10:57 PM
Yep. better make sure the transportation budet has more in it with desiel at 3 a gallon. But schools buy a lot so they can get a little discount. Will be tough on Tuesday night away vb, bb, bb, sb games and Thursday away JH-JV football games. But rest assured people WILL travel.

sahen
12-31-2007, 10:58 PM
Originally posted by **********
Lee is staying 5A according to their coach! They turned in a tad to much.

good news...now if sterling would ever wake up from their 20 some odd year hibernation...

of course it will be interesting to see the number they turned in...if it is really close to the cutoff then they may drop to 4a in 2 years after the kids that are grandfathered to finish out at lee graduate....

setxsports
12-31-2007, 11:00 PM
:D

BILLYFRED0000
12-31-2007, 11:09 PM
Originally posted by charlesrixey
if the UIL wants to have six team districts, then they obviously will have to have a slightly smaller number in all of the classes above it

possible, but that's a lot of work to make something that a lot of people in west texas are going to hate
(and not just west texas)

BTW, Prosper will be 4A as well

What did Prosper turn in?

charlesrixey
12-31-2007, 11:17 PM
Originally posted by BILLYFRED0000
What did Prosper turn in?

i don't know, but i'm guessing over 1,000

just a guess of course, but i'm fairly educated

:D

WOS87
01-01-2008, 01:05 AM
Originally posted by SpeedOption
Not bad but the cutoffs will be evens.
CLASS ENROLLMENT
AAAAA 2050
AAAA 960-2049
AAA 420-959
AA 200-419
A 99-199

Something like that. They usually cut on even numbers. look at pat history. I think there will be more than 178 in 3A. 32 x 6 is 192. I think there will be at least that many. Get ready to travel.

The cutoff numbers are always divisible by 5



http://idisk.mac.com/cboehme69-Public/stats/realignmenthx.gif

(1951 3A should be 450-849... I need to correct that)

boudreaux
01-01-2008, 01:48 PM
1964 to 1970? Did they use the same numbers from 1963? The numbers have just about doubled since 1963.

KATS
01-01-2008, 03:08 PM
I hear Huffman turned in numbers that will drop them to AAAA to AAA