charlesrixey
12-14-2007, 08:07 AM
Snyder (12-2) vs. Celina (14-0), Class 3A Div. II, State Semifinal, 4 p.m., Saturday, Shotwell Stadium -- On the surface, it's easy to pick Celina to win here, given its track record.
The Bobcats have been Texas' small-school equivalent to Southlake Carroll, winning six state titles since 1998 and posting double-digit wins in 14 straight seasons. They've scored 120 points over the past two weeks, including last week's 70-21 thrashing of Glen Rose in the state quarterfinals.
Snyder has two key elements that will allow it to compete here. First, running back Will Clay, who enters this week with a school-record 2,971 yards and 41 touchdowns. Second, a dominating offensive line that is going to create seams for Clay to run through.
Snyder is going to move the football. They have all year. That means fewer possessions than Celina is accustomed to, and a close game.
Unfortunately for Snyder, Celina's overall team speed and depth will be the difference by game's end. The Tigers and coach Chad Rogers have had a great run, but the trail ends here.
Pick: Celina by 10
HERE is the REST OF THE ARTICLE (picking the other WT games, for those who are interested)
Canadian (14-1) vs. Cisco (14-0), Class 2A Div. II state semifinal, 3 p.m. Saturday, Lowrey Field, Lubbock -- An interesting matchup between an ultra-physical Cisco team and one of the state's best small-school passing attacks.
Canadian quarterback Coleman Bentley, who passed the 3,000-yard mark on the season with 276 yards through the air in a 21-18 win over Idalou last week, can be expected to throw 40 or more times against the Loboes.
Cisco, on the other hand, prefers things on the rough side and will do its best to keep things that way. Coming off a 46-23 win over Boyd that saw the Loboes overcome a 17-16 halftime deficit, Cisco is far simpler scheme-wise than Canadian. And therein lies the advantage.
When push comes to shove, always go with the more physical team, especially in December.
Pick: Cisco by 10
• Sundown (14-0) vs. Munday (13-0), Class A Div. II state semifinal, 2 p.m. Saturday, Mustang Bowl, Sweetwater -- If you're hoping to see a hire-wire act featuring spread offenses and footballs flying in every direction, I wouldn't recommend this one.
However, if controlled brutality is your cup of tea, snag a ticket for what for Munday coach Pat Corcoran sees as a "brawl."
Both of these clubs prefer to run the football, both of them play outstanding defense, both have established an identity, and both enjoy bringing the pain.
Sundown is led by running back John Heffley, who rushed for more than 1,300 yards during the regular season; and quarterback Jason Durham, who threw for more than 700. The Roughnecks can also be expected to bring a throng of nearly 2,500 fans.
Munday has posted similar numbers offensively, relying on running back Anason Jones, who tallied more than 1,100 yards on the ground, and quarterback Steven Urbanczyk, who has rushed for more than 1,000 and thrown for more than 800.
Sundown has chalked up six shutouts. Munday has four.
Defense will rule here and turnovers will decide it. I'll go with Munday, based on a slightly tougher schedule.
Pick: Munday by 3
• Rule (13-0) vs. Richland Springs (13-0), six-man Div. I state final, 7:30 p.m. Saturday, Bobcat Stadium, San Angelo -- I would very much like to pick Rule in an upset here, because I like Bobcat coach Mike Reed and the way he runs his program.
But ... here's the problem. Richland Springs has a huge edge in depth. And Rule, which has held seven opponents under 10 points, is suddenly struggling defensively. Twice in the last three weeks, the Bobcats have been torched for more than 60 points. Things will get much tougher here.
Richland Springs and all-state quarterback Tyler Ethridge can be expected to score 70-plus points in this one, meaning the Bobcats will have to score around 75 to have a shot at winning. That's going to be a tall order coming against a defense that hasn't allowed more than 43 in a game all season.
Reed believes his kids need to be plus-2 in turnovers to walk away with the state championship. I think plus-3 is more like it.
Rule will be the sentimental favorite for many in this one, but the math just isn't there.
Pick: Richland Springs by 17
• Motley County (13-1) vs. Woodson (12-2), six-man Div. II state final, 3 p.m. Saturday, Bobcat Stadium, San Angelo -- No Division II six-man team has played better football than Woodson over the past three months, and none of the 12 straight opponents dumped by the Cowboys have come close to beating them.
Woodson has averaged more than 95 points per game in wins over defending state champion Vernon Northside (89-60) and Gustine (102-64). Running back Robert Perez has played a role in 19 Cowboy touchdowns in the last two weeks.
Motley County, on the other hand, is holding the opposition to 25 points per game (solid for six-man), and has mercy-ruled four of its last five opponents.
The Matador defense will keep things tight, but no one has put a lid on Perez since September. I like the Cowboys by two scores.
Pick: Woodson by 12
LAST WEEK: 7-0, 1.000
SEASON TOTAL: 447-122, .785
The Bobcats have been Texas' small-school equivalent to Southlake Carroll, winning six state titles since 1998 and posting double-digit wins in 14 straight seasons. They've scored 120 points over the past two weeks, including last week's 70-21 thrashing of Glen Rose in the state quarterfinals.
Snyder has two key elements that will allow it to compete here. First, running back Will Clay, who enters this week with a school-record 2,971 yards and 41 touchdowns. Second, a dominating offensive line that is going to create seams for Clay to run through.
Snyder is going to move the football. They have all year. That means fewer possessions than Celina is accustomed to, and a close game.
Unfortunately for Snyder, Celina's overall team speed and depth will be the difference by game's end. The Tigers and coach Chad Rogers have had a great run, but the trail ends here.
Pick: Celina by 10
HERE is the REST OF THE ARTICLE (picking the other WT games, for those who are interested)
Canadian (14-1) vs. Cisco (14-0), Class 2A Div. II state semifinal, 3 p.m. Saturday, Lowrey Field, Lubbock -- An interesting matchup between an ultra-physical Cisco team and one of the state's best small-school passing attacks.
Canadian quarterback Coleman Bentley, who passed the 3,000-yard mark on the season with 276 yards through the air in a 21-18 win over Idalou last week, can be expected to throw 40 or more times against the Loboes.
Cisco, on the other hand, prefers things on the rough side and will do its best to keep things that way. Coming off a 46-23 win over Boyd that saw the Loboes overcome a 17-16 halftime deficit, Cisco is far simpler scheme-wise than Canadian. And therein lies the advantage.
When push comes to shove, always go with the more physical team, especially in December.
Pick: Cisco by 10
• Sundown (14-0) vs. Munday (13-0), Class A Div. II state semifinal, 2 p.m. Saturday, Mustang Bowl, Sweetwater -- If you're hoping to see a hire-wire act featuring spread offenses and footballs flying in every direction, I wouldn't recommend this one.
However, if controlled brutality is your cup of tea, snag a ticket for what for Munday coach Pat Corcoran sees as a "brawl."
Both of these clubs prefer to run the football, both of them play outstanding defense, both have established an identity, and both enjoy bringing the pain.
Sundown is led by running back John Heffley, who rushed for more than 1,300 yards during the regular season; and quarterback Jason Durham, who threw for more than 700. The Roughnecks can also be expected to bring a throng of nearly 2,500 fans.
Munday has posted similar numbers offensively, relying on running back Anason Jones, who tallied more than 1,100 yards on the ground, and quarterback Steven Urbanczyk, who has rushed for more than 1,000 and thrown for more than 800.
Sundown has chalked up six shutouts. Munday has four.
Defense will rule here and turnovers will decide it. I'll go with Munday, based on a slightly tougher schedule.
Pick: Munday by 3
• Rule (13-0) vs. Richland Springs (13-0), six-man Div. I state final, 7:30 p.m. Saturday, Bobcat Stadium, San Angelo -- I would very much like to pick Rule in an upset here, because I like Bobcat coach Mike Reed and the way he runs his program.
But ... here's the problem. Richland Springs has a huge edge in depth. And Rule, which has held seven opponents under 10 points, is suddenly struggling defensively. Twice in the last three weeks, the Bobcats have been torched for more than 60 points. Things will get much tougher here.
Richland Springs and all-state quarterback Tyler Ethridge can be expected to score 70-plus points in this one, meaning the Bobcats will have to score around 75 to have a shot at winning. That's going to be a tall order coming against a defense that hasn't allowed more than 43 in a game all season.
Reed believes his kids need to be plus-2 in turnovers to walk away with the state championship. I think plus-3 is more like it.
Rule will be the sentimental favorite for many in this one, but the math just isn't there.
Pick: Richland Springs by 17
• Motley County (13-1) vs. Woodson (12-2), six-man Div. II state final, 3 p.m. Saturday, Bobcat Stadium, San Angelo -- No Division II six-man team has played better football than Woodson over the past three months, and none of the 12 straight opponents dumped by the Cowboys have come close to beating them.
Woodson has averaged more than 95 points per game in wins over defending state champion Vernon Northside (89-60) and Gustine (102-64). Running back Robert Perez has played a role in 19 Cowboy touchdowns in the last two weeks.
Motley County, on the other hand, is holding the opposition to 25 points per game (solid for six-man), and has mercy-ruled four of its last five opponents.
The Matador defense will keep things tight, but no one has put a lid on Perez since September. I like the Cowboys by two scores.
Pick: Woodson by 12
LAST WEEK: 7-0, 1.000
SEASON TOTAL: 447-122, .785