Possible look to 2008 Realignment!!

[PHS Wildcats]

I got this from smoaky!!!

I received the following information from Robert Barrett, and he loved working these numbers. Based on information Smoaky.com and other sources, he's come up with a potential model for the February, 2008 Reclassification.

David Smoak

*****

Smoaky,

The UIL Realignment subject was very important to me before I retired. A friend contacted me with data form your website and data that he had accumulated. He asked me to apply the UIL policy to this data. I thought you might enjoy the reading.

By the way a fellow from Hughes Springs and I presented the current 2 to 1 policy the UIL Legislative Council in 1995. At the time we knew the UIL staff liked the plan due to its fairness; however, a couple of the people on the council ran inference against the plan because they enjoyed sitting at the top of their respective classifications. Justly they retired and impartiality prevailed.

Please review the attached.

-----

I used the unofficial data form more than 250 Texas high schools. I was able to obtain enrollment data on most of the marginal enrollment (bubble) schools. I applied the UIL Reclassification and Realignment Policy and used the UIL’s long standing practice of using significant gaps in enrollment numbers as a dividing point. Examples of these gaps are in AAAA to AAAAA the jump is from 2034 to 2048, in AAA to AAA the jump is from 958 to 984, in AA to AAA the jump is form 419 to 428 and in A to AA are 198 to 201. Of course the gaps in the lower classes are smaller and subject to more deviation.
Schools electing to pay up a class will have a slight impact on the final numbers.

2008 UIL Reclassification Model

CLASS ENROLLMENT # OF SCHOOLS 08 RATIO 06 RATIO
AAAAA 2051+ 247 schools
AAAA 959-2050 231 schools 2.13 2.08
AAA 420-958 178 schools 2.28 2.28
AA 199-419 213 schools 2.1 2.12
A 99-198 169 schools 2.0 1.94

Dropping from AA to A
1. Canadian 198
2. Garrison 198
3. Stanton 198
4. Rice 197
5. Junction 196
6. Timpson 195
7. Yorktown 195
8. Big Sandy 194
9. Stamford 193
10. Waskom 192
11. Hawkins 190
12. Crawford 189
13. Riesel 187
14. Blue Ridge 186.5
15. Ganado 186
16. Stinnett West Texas 184
17. Mart 184.5
18. Mason 175
19. Stratford 173
20. Italy 172
21. Itasca 171

Moving up from A to AA
1. Harper 209
2. Groveton 203

Dropping From AAA to AA
1. Sabine
2. White Oak

Moving up from AA to AAA
1. Aubrey
2. Navarro
3. Clifton
4. Tatum
5. New Boston
6. Anna

Dropping from AAAA to AAA
1. Burnet
2. Paris
3. Fredericksburg
4. Brownwood

Moving up from AAA to AAAA
1. Royce City
2. Mabank
3. Medina Valley
4. Frisco Wakeland

Dropping from AAAAA to AAAA
1. Longview

Moving from AAAA to AAAAA
1. Richmond Foster

[wildstangs]

Would be short stints in other classifications for Tatum and Burnet if they come back to 3A.

[alaskacat]

Crawford will be a monster if drop down to A.

As will Longview into 4A

[ASUFrisbeeStud]

Originally posted by wildstangs
Would be short stints in other classifications for Tatum and Burnet if they come back to 3A.

Ya know off subject, I love Burnet.

My girlfriends family has a cabin on the lake, it's just a great little place.

[espn1]

Go Bulldogs!

[sahen]

Baytown Lee is supposed to drop to 4a due to Baytown opening a 3rd high school...5th most playoff appearances in 5a will now be moving down to 4a...right down highway 146 from them is both Barber's Hill and Dayton....talk about a salty district....

[Gobbla2001]

Edna would for sure move up to 3A from 2A... musta missed that one...

[eagles_victory]

Mart and Alto may be a monster matchup in 1A.

[KingRob]

Rice down to A from AA. They will be kicking some booty for sure. Weren't they AAA at one time? Their enrollment seems to be falling faster than the worth of the dollar!

[GreenGobbla]

wow, ya, i remember cuero playing rice not too long ago

[29-3aFAN]

Originally posted by KingRob
Rice down to A from AA. They will be kicking some booty for sure. Weren't they AAA at one time? Their enrollment seems to be falling faster than the worth of the dollar!
Yeah, they were 3a a couple years ago it seems.

[Old Green]

Originally posted by GreenGobbla
wow, ya, i remember cuero playing rice not too long ago That's different Rice. It's in East Texas.
Rice consolidated is who you are thinking about.;)

[themsu97]

Rice Consolidated in Altair is not the Rice here, that Rice is on 45 north of Corsicana but not quite to Ennis

[KingRob]

Ya'll are right. The Rice Bulldogs are in 20-AA right now with an enrollment of 198 (according to DCTF).

Rice Consolidated has an enrollment of 359.

Too bad the two never played each other!

[charlesrixey]

Originally posted by alaskacat
Crawford will be a monster if drop down to A.

As will Longview into 4A

Well, Mart would probably be a bigger monster, but both would be perennial contenders, especially with two divisions at such a small level (which is rediculous, i might add)

[themsu97]

also, I think that Dickinson as well as Lamar Consolidated would also be going from 4A to 5A if I here their numbers are correct... I heard that both of them have somewhere near 2100 if not a little over that

[CenTexSports]

What about Hutto? I don't see any way they stay 3a another two years.

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by CenTexSports
What about Hutto? I don't see any way they stay 3a another two years.
You would be correct, unless the cutoff goes WAAAAAAAY up.

[charlesrixey]

Originally posted by CenTexSports
What about Hutto? I don't see any way they stay 3a another two years.

didn't know they had been growing THAT fast

they were solid 2A not too long ago

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by charlesrixey
didn't know they had been growing THAT fast

they were solid 2A not too long ago
I don't remember the exact numbers, but it was in the 1100 range.

[leecofans]

Originally posted by CenTexSports
What about Hutto? I don't see any way they stay 3a another two years.

Had a parent from Hutto tell us that there is even talk of bumping straight to 5A... :thinking:

[PHS Wildcats]

yea, this is going to be very interesting

[ILS1]

Originally posted by leecofans
Had a parent from Hutto tell us that there is even talk of bumping straight to 5A... :thinking:

They will definitely be 4A next year. I think they'll spend at least 4 years before going 5A.


:D :D :D

[sweetwater07]

Longview to 4A??


:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

[VWG]

Originally posted by PHS Wildcats
I got this from smoaky!!!

I received the following information from Robert Barrett, and he loved working these numbers. Based on information Smoaky.com and other sources, he's come up with a potential model for the February, 2008 Reclassification.

David Smoak

*****

Smoaky,

The UIL Realignment subject was very important to me before I retired. A friend contacted me with data form your website and data that he had accumulated. He asked me to apply the UIL policy to this data. I thought you might enjoy the reading.

By the way a fellow from Hughes Springs and I presented the current 2 to 1 policy the UIL Legislative Council in 1995. At the time we knew the UIL staff liked the plan due to its fairness; however, a couple of the people on the council ran inference against the plan because they enjoyed sitting at the top of their respective classifications. Justly they retired and impartiality prevailed.

Please review the attached.

-----

I used the unofficial data form more than 250 Texas high schools. I was able to obtain enrollment data on most of the marginal enrollment (bubble) schools. I applied the UIL Reclassification and Realignment Policy and used the UIL’s long standing practice of using significant gaps in enrollment numbers as a dividing point. Examples of these gaps are in AAAA to AAAAA the jump is from 2034 to 2048, in AAA to AAA the jump is from 958 to 984, in AA to AAA the jump is form 419 to 428 and in A to AA are 198 to 201. Of course the gaps in the lower classes are smaller and subject to more deviation.
Schools electing to pay up a class will have a slight impact on the final numbers.

2008 UIL Reclassification Model

CLASS ENROLLMENT # OF SCHOOLS 08 RATIO 06 RATIO
AAAAA 2051+ 247 schools
AAAA 959-2050 231 schools 2.13 2.08
AAA 420-958 178 schools 2.28 2.28
AA 199-419 213 schools 2.1 2.12
A 99-198 169 schools 2.0 1.94

Dropping from AA to A
1. Canadian 198
2. Garrison 198
3. Stanton 198
4. Rice 197
5. Junction 196
6. Timpson 195
7. Yorktown 195
8. Big Sandy 194
9. Stamford 193
10. Waskom 192
11. Hawkins 190
12. Crawford 189
13. Riesel 187
14. Blue Ridge 186.5
15. Ganado 186
16. Stinnett West Texas 184
17. Mart 184.5
18. Mason 175
19. Stratford 173
20. Italy 172
21. Itasca 171

Moving up from A to AA
1. Harper 209
2. Groveton 203

Dropping From AAA to AA
1. Sabine
2. White Oak

Moving up from AA to AAA
1. Aubrey
2. Navarro
3. Clifton
4. Tatum
5. New Boston
6. Anna

Dropping from AAAA to AAA
1. Burnet
2. Paris
3. Fredericksburg
4. Brownwood

Moving up from AAA to AAAA
1. Royce City
2. Mabank
3. Medina Valley
4. Frisco Wakeland

Dropping from AAAAA to AAAA
1. Longview

Moving from AAAA to AAAAA
1. Richmond Foster


Pretty good model to work from, assuring that he did use the UIL standard of working 5A down. Everyone needs to remember the UIL works 5A first and then down.

[txrangers]

Pleasanton turned in over a 1000.

[runthequarter]

Originally posted by txrangers
Pleasanton turned in over a 1000.

Pleasanton did well in 3A. It would be too bad for them to have to move back up to 4A.

[DDBooger]

Rockport Fulton i heard may be droppin.

[NastySlot]

to take into account that there will be schools that petition to play up into 5A due to travel...that always tends mess things up a little...rumor had it the uil wasn't going to allow schools to petition up but I've only heard that on message boards...nothing written in the media...or from uil official...so who knows.

[K-MAC Chuck]

Just making sure..

did you put Hutto in there, moving up to 4A??

There's NO QUESTION they'll be a 4A school next year...

[trojan37]

If Clifton moves up to 3A they will get throttled. They really haven't done much on the 2A level recently, and depending on who they are aligned with this could be very ugly for them.

[JJ7997]

Originally posted by trojan37
If Clifton moves up to 3A they will get throttled. They really haven't done much on the 2A level recently, and depending on who they are aligned with this could be very ugly for them.

They better hope its not 17-3A, because it will be a meatgrinder for them.

[trojan37]

Originally posted by JJ7997
They better hope its not 17-3A, because it will be a meatgrinder for them.

Exactly what I was thinking. The only other possibility I can think of is moving someone out of our district in 12-3A (hopefully Kennedale) and throwing Clifton in there. I have a funny feeling we might be coming back to 17-3A as well. OUCH!

[Antec]

I hear all districts will have 6 teams across the board-all regions

But there will be some districts with no teams and some will get first round byes

[charlesrixey]

Originally posted by Antec
I hear all districts will have 6 teams across the board-all regions

But there will be some districts with no teams and some will get first round byes

at this point, i doubt it

the situation sucks, but i think it's more likely they keep the four and five team districts to ease the travel of a class that could lose another five or six teams overall

[JasperDog94]

Originally posted by charlesrixey
at this point, i doubt it

the situation sucks, but i think it's more likely they keep the four and five team districts to ease the travel of a class that could lose another five or six teams overall HA!!! Jasper would love to be in a 4 or 5 team district.;) Heck, even bring on the 6 team district.:p :p

[j_dog]

Originally posted by JasperDog94
HA!!! Jasper would love to be in a 4 or 5 team district.;) Heck, even bring on the 6 team district.:p :p
7 wouldn't be that bad. but 8 is NOT GOOD. :mad:

[Old Tiger]

I can see a LH, Burnet, Rockdale, Cameron, and Taylor district.

[NastySlot]

Burnet, LH, Wimberley, Llano, Fred and Bandera. those are all some pretty big (enrollment 3A) schools........still would go with LH to win it.........they have something really good going.

[Snydertigersrul]

Snyder is staying 3A.

:D

[Old Tiger]

Originally posted by NastySlot
Burnet, LH, Wimberley, Llano, Fred and Bandera. those are all some pretty big (enrollment 3A) schools........still would go with LH to win it.........they have something really good going. Those seem like some far drives for LH/Burnet. IMO the setup that I had is much more managable.

[block&tackle]

Celina is now 12 miles from the closest Region 1 school - Pilot Point and Whitesboro have officially moved from D9 to D8 for basketball season with the addition of new schools Frisco Liberty and Lovejoy to D9. Add to that the fact that two other close neighbors - Anna and Aubrey - are expected to move up. The border between 1 and 2 has been creeping east.

My question - Will Celina be in Region 1 in the next reallignment?

[WOS87]

Originally posted by charlesrixey
didn't know they had been growing THAT fast

they were solid 2A not too long ago

Link to source (http://txsdc.utsa.edu/tpepp/2005_txpopest_place.php)

Fastest Growing Communities in Texas 2000-2006
(percentage increase in population from 2000-2006 followed by Jan 1, 2000 population and Jan 1, 2006 population estimate)
1. Hutto 538.2% 1250 to 7977
2. Fate 503.6% 497 to 3000
3. Little Elm 434.1% 3646 to 19,472
4. Murphy 269.5% 3099 to 10,649
5. Kyle 263.9% 5314 to 19,335
6. Cibolo 167.8% 3035 to 8129
7. Selma 165.5% 788 to 2092
8. Bee Cave 158.4% 656 to 1695
9. Roman Forest 144.0% 1279 to 3121
10. Fairview 131.2% 2644 to 6113
11. Sanctuary 130.1% 256 to 589
12. Prosper 123.5% 2097 to 4686
13. Leander 121.5% 7596 to 16,822
14. Royse City 121.2% 2957 to 6542
15. Frisco 118.9% 33,714 to 69,484
16. Melissa 102.6% 1350 to 2523
17. Celina 98.4% 1861 to 3693
18. Alton 98.4% 4384 to 8,698
19. Wylie 97.4% 15,132 to 29,868
20. Forney 95.6% 5588 to 10,929

[Old Tiger]

I heard the community is going down hil because of the growth.

[Daddy D 11]

Originally posted by Go Blue
I heard the community is going down hil because of the growth.

it is, high school trouble makers seem to move out to hutto once they are kicked out of the austin area schools. plus the farm land is very cheap to builed a considerably nice house on

[Hill Man]

Originally posted by NastySlot
Burnet, LH, Wimberley, Llano, Fred and Bandera. those are all some pretty big (enrollment 3A) schools........still would go with LH to win it.........they have something really good going.

If that is the mix for a district your forgetting Ingram will have to be thrown in, it is between Fredricksburg and Bandera from LH.
Been in that district before (without Fred), don't care for the drive to Bandera and Ingram. Its a pretty drive but not a straight shot taking at least 2 hours one way...
Getting Wimperly, Burnet and Llano back in a district gives us back old time foes...

What about Lampases, are they droping down to 3A? They would be in the mix possibly with LH but who knows. Watch out for Brownwood in 3A.

[Daddy D 11]

watch out for LH in region 4 :devil:

[NastySlot]

yeah i left out Ingram.....also heard that Canyon Lake will be 3A.....talk with a guy in Fredericksburg his thoughts were a district with Wim, Canyon Lake, Llano, Ingram, Bandera and Fred. which makes a six team district when asked about Burnet...he thought maybe Burnet would go east with LH, Taylor, Rockdale Austin ISD School (johnston)....thought he heard Cameron might drop and Hutto go up..........who knows.............spoke with a guy from Ingram and he's dreading realignment with Burnet and Fred dropping.....but he did say look for Ingram to drop the next alignment with Hunt opening up a high school...Ingram would lose enrollment.

[Daddy D 11]

ingram would get owned in 2A also lol

[Bigworm]

Originally posted by Go Blue
I heard the community is going down hil because of the growth.

It probably is. The development in Hutto is unbelievable.

[NastySlot]

Originally posted by Daddy D 11
ingram would get owned in 2A also lol

poor Ingram....almost feel sorry for that community.

[Daddy D 11]

i do feel sorry haha
they cant compete at anything:(

[Daddy D 11]

and why the "nastyslot" name? are you a LH fan? haha please explain

[NastySlot]

Originally posted by Go Blue
Those seem like some far drives for LH/Burnet. IMO the setup that I had is much more managable.


I agree yours does look good.

[Daddy D 11]

it makes sense too because burnet and taylor used to be in a district also, so its not that big of a stretch. but i heard cameron could be moving down, so that could make things interesting.

i just hope that this realignment they get rid of the 2 divisions, i would have a romance explosion if that occured :)

[gold_33]

Originally posted by NastySlot
yeah i left out Ingram.....also heard that Canyon Lake will be 3A.....talk with a guy in Fredericksburg his thoughts were a district with Wim, Canyon Lake, Llano, Ingram, Bandera and Fred. which makes a six team district when asked about Burnet...he thought maybe Burnet would go east with LH, Taylor, Rockdale Austin ISD School (johnston)....thought he heard Cameron might drop and Hutto go up..........who knows.............spoke with a guy from Ingram and he's dreading realignment with Burnet and Fred dropping.....but he did say look for Ingram to drop the next alignment with Hunt opening up a high school...Ingram would lose enrollment.

I have heard Comfort is moving up to 3A and our district could be Canyon Lake, Llano, Fredricksburg, Comfort, Ingram, Wimberley. Bandera will likely move to a closer district with Hondo.

[NastySlot]

Originally posted by Daddy D 11
and why the "nastyslot" name? are you a LH fan? haha please explain


once coached at school where used the nasty......i do like LH....not from there but I admire the program they have over there....live in the hill country.

[Old Tiger]

Originally posted by NastySlot
once coached at school where used the nasty......i do like LH....not from there but I admire the program they have over there....live in the hill country. Taylor?

[NastySlot]

Originally posted by gold_33
I have heard Comfort is moving up to 3A and our district could be Canyon Lake, Llano, Fredricksburg, Comfort, Ingram, Wimberley. Bandera will likely move to a closer district with Hondo.


I know there is growth in Comfort the community but I think it's like Fredericksburg....older with no children or young with very young children....I don't know if Comfort would move up this one but maybe next.....who knows

[Black_Magic]

Originally posted by Go Blue
Taylor? Taylor? DUH......:nerd:

[Hill Man]

Originally posted by gold_33
I have heard Comfort is moving up to 3A and our district could be Canyon Lake, Llano, Fredricksburg, Comfort, Ingram, Wimberley. Bandera will likely move to a closer district with Hondo.

I don't think Canyon Lake will be in the mix for football... don't think they are playing varsity football (maybe the other sports) the first two years. Didn't they just open with a freshman and sophmore class only?