Ranking Region III Division I

[Old Cardinal]

To RBarker, BH_146, Bobkat, and anyone else- I would be curious as to how folks down here would rank Division I this season. Remember we are talking predicting postseason, basically.

[Matthew328]

I wonder if I should even reply since obviously I know nothing about Reg 3... :rolleyes:

[PPHSfan]

It's a little early to be predicting post-season aint it? :D

[Bobkat]

Old Card, I think Matt was right on with his predictions of region III. The only thing I might change would be adding Sealy/Elgin/Barbers Hill in that number ten spot. Something like this...
1. Marlin
2. Bellville
3. Jasper
4. LaGrange
5. Fairfield
6. Newton
7. Navasota
8. Mexia
9. Bridge City
10. Sealy/Elgin/Barbers Hill

Kirbyville could definetly be there, I'm just going on a hunch that anyone of those teams, especially Sealy is going to have a very good year. As for the rest, Marlin and Bellville are very solid. Saw them play last year in the playoffs and that was probably the best high school football game I've seen in a long time. Both those teams are stout and will be loaded again this season.

[Old Cardinal]

Bobkat the question was about the finishers in Division I, in order, for Region III.....And yes Matt, we would welcome how you would predict Division I in Region III.

<small>[ June 17, 2003, 10:18 PM: Message edited by: Old Cardinal ]</small>

[the tigers are back]

We'll i'm glad somebody put sealy in the top ten, but the picks are okay; but what really matters is where will those teams be when the playoffs begins. I know we got just over 8 weeks more i'm eek! certainly excited especially for the tigers this year returning 9 starters on both sides ooops...(woe now).Oh yeah we know that to each is on and bellville if we don't make it and you'll do i behind the bulls all the way. I think the bulls lost about 9 starters,but don't worry they will find away i hope.

[RBARKER]

Ok, If we are just talking Reg III DIV I. Out of the 8 teams that will make bracket play here is my top 5.

1.) Jasper
2.) Bridge City
3.) Mexia
4.) Navasota
5.) Gatesville

I would throw BH in there, but I think Cleveland may get the third spot in district 22.

<small>[ June 18, 2003, 07:56 AM: Message edited by: RBARKER ]</small>

[Lombardi]

bobkat, 7 of you top 10 listed went div II last year.

[Old Cardinal]

I think we need to always separate the probable Division I from the Division II on any poll ratings.... Empirical data shows that Div. I size teams win District or are #2 in District in most cases. Therefore, it follows that if the Divisions were not separated, then the bigger school would win most all of the Bracket play over they years. And the polls ranking 7 seven small Division II schools out of ten would probably be just the reverse, in joint-grouped Bracket play.

[Old Cardinal]

I think we need to always separate the probable Division I from the Division II on any poll ratings.... Empirical data shows that Div. I size teams win District or are #2 in District in most cases. Therefore, it follows that if the Divisions were not separated, then the bigger school would win most all of the Bracket play over the years. And the polls, ranking 7 seven small Division II schools out of ten; would probably be just the reverse, in joint-grouped Bracket play.

[BanderaBlahBlah]

No wonder Sealy won Four in a row back when there were no divisions, they had a HUGE enrollment (not, it was closer to being 2A than it was to being 4A back then)...

[Matthew328]

This year Div II is stronger than Div I....too many "swing" districts to make a Div I/Div II poll...example...22-3A....Cleveland/Barbers Hill....or 23-3A Bellville/Navasota...yes there are obvious Div I squads..BC, Jasper, Gatesville, Mexia etc...

[PPHSfan]

I personally think that the Division 1 Divsion 2 thing is flawed at best. If there has to be a D1 D2 split, then it should be the top 8 teams in each region in D1 and the next 16 in D2 in order to make it fair. These teams could then be seeded and bracketed for the Regional Playoffs.

If there were a true D1 D2 split then teams with enrollment in the top 1/3rd of the regions would be the D1 teams. This would mean enrollment over 715 students would be needed to quailify for D1 or even more important, enrollment under 715 would be needed to qualify for D2.

But look at just a few of last years D1 D2 teams and their enrollment.

Division 1

Cameron 525
Hondo 579
Mexia 584
Atlanta 584
Gladewater 585

Division II

Canyon 874
Quinlan Ford 833
Bandera 774
Kennedale 769
Brownsboro 743
Raymondville 739

Now look at those numbers for a minute.

Teams like Atlanta had to play teams like Forney in Division One, while Teams like Bandera played in the Division Two Bracket.

I for one say that there should either be ONE STATE CHAMPION or the system should be bracketed and seeded.

Anyone wanna debate me on it? :p

[Old Cardinal]

In all due respect, Division II is never stronger! Look at the District winners 1st, 2nd, 3rd across the State-the big schools win the lions-share. I would venture to say, that on any given year there are a half dozen or more, big schools that are eliminated in the Div.I bracket elimination process that can beat the Champ and Finalist from Division II. Look at the Districts and see who wins the Districts across Texas. Yes, there is that occasion where a small team has a few super stars (that don't get hurt) and a small school wins big.

[BanderaBlahBlah]

It may be that way in Region 3, I'll give you that seeing how this topic is a Region 3 topic... My bad...

[Owen B]

D1 has been stronger the past couple of years, but that's not always the case. If you look at the State finalists in the last four years before the D1-D2 split, every one of them are normally D2. The only reason Atlanta was D1 last year was that neither of the two big schools in 12-3A made the playoffs. One of them was the '99 D1 champ.

<small>[ June 18, 2003, 12:51 PM: Message edited by: Owen B ]</small>

[PPHSfan]

Old Cardinal:
In all due respect, Division II is never stronger! Look at the District winners 1st, 2nd, 3rd across the State-the big schools win the lions-share. ....OK, I am really gonna enjoy your reply to this one Old Card. I did what you said and looked at the winners for all 32 districts last season and wrote them down.

1. Perryton D2
2. Brownfield D1
3. Sweetwater D2
4. Greenwood D2
5. Graham D1
6. Abilene Wylie D1
7. Decatur D2
8. Kennedale D2
9. Celina D2
10. Commerce D2
11. Gilmer D2
12. Daingerfield D2
13. Forney D1
14. Wills Point D1
15. Spring Hill D2
16. Tatum D2
17. Gatesville D1
18. Marlin D2
19. Mexia D1
20. Newton D2
21. Bridge City D1
22. Barbers Hill D2
23. Bellville D2
24. La Grange D2
25. Burnet D1
26. La Vernia D2
27. Yoakum D2
28. Rice Consolidated D2
29. Devine D2
30. Sinton D1
31. Orange Grove D2
32. Port Isabel D2

Hmmmm, that is 10 D1 winners and 22 D2 winners. How much is a "Lions Share" anyways? :D

[BanderaBlahBlah]

Ouch... That's not even the case in Region III... My bad old Card... I was wrong again... My bad...

Good job PPHSFan... Can you check and see how many of those D1 teams would have been D2 if the school with the highest enrollment in their district would have made the playoffs?

BTW: Some of the D2 district champs might have a high enrollment in the district so that might be one of his arguments...

[RBARKER]

Man PPHSfan you and I had the same idea, I went and counted also and I came up with the following.

Out of 32 districts Div I placed

13 times in 1st
10 times in 2nd
9 times in 3rd

This does not include the Large teams in district that didn't even make the top three. Old Card you should know by now if you make an statement some one will look it up.

[PPHSfan]

Kennedale with 769 is the only D2 team that won their district and also has enrollment in the top 3rd. Unless I missed one.

[PPHSfan]

I did mislabel one team. I labled Barbers Hill as D2 rather than D1. I made this mistake because Barbers Hill is not the largest school in District 22, however Cleveland missed the playoffs sending Barbers Hill into Division 1.

[Old Cardinal]

RBarker and the others, I said- 1st, 2nd or 3rd- I think I more than made my point when there were but a few Biggest school that did not make the top 3 in any district. There are a ton of smaller schools yet the biggest controlled 13 of the 32 District Championships and then the large amount of #2& #3 spots. The Districts with several extra large enrollment schools tended to gravitate to the top of those Districts also, be it Div II or Div. I.... Division II is always weaker overall, look at how many of those schools place 4th or worst in District as compared to the top enrollment schools, placing 4th of worst! ITS A RARE SITE TO SEE A HIGHEST ENROLLMENT SCHOOL not place in the top 3 of a District, but it happens... I repeat, at least HALF A DOZEN Division I,each year, can beat the Division II Champ and Runnerup!

<small>[ June 18, 2003, 01:57 PM: Message edited by: Old Cardinal ]</small>

[PPHSfan]

Wow that is saying alot when six out of thirty two of the top teams from the biggest schools can beat the champions from division 2 which should actually be the cream of the crop of the remaining schools after you remove 1/3rd of 207 teams or 69 teams. So six of the top seven should be able to beat teams 70 and 71 out of 207. Furthermore what you are saying is that the biggest school in each district should be able to win a playoff spot which comes down to the top half of the district? WOW! The biggest school consistently places in the top 50%? Amazing. :p Well at least you have given me some bean counting to do. I am going to do some extensive research in this matter and see what I come up with. And lets just use the numbers and the facts, and leave the "spin" to the guys on the coast ok?

[BanderaBlahBlah]

First of all we need to figure out what you guys see as a high enrollment and a low enrollment... I would say just go by the lowest enrollment and the highest enrollment and cut it in half, but there may be some lopsided numbers (more schools or less schools than other half)...

[PPHSfan]

Here is the deal. D1 won 1st place 11 out of 32 districts, not 13. 11 is real close to 1/3rd of 32 and D1 makes up 1/3rd of the league. Go look at my final thoughts.

MY FINAL THOUGHTS (http://bbs.3adownlow.com/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=007334)

[Old Cardinal]

Any way you cut it, the big enrollment dominates! 13 out of the 32 District winners were highest enrollment in their district THAT'S ONE OUT OF 2 1/2 TEAMS Now on the other hand the remainder of the teams win the other 21 Districts WOW THAT'S ONE OUT OF ELEVEN TEAMS...I did not realise just fow much better the high-enrollment school are than the others in 3A!

[PPHSfan]

OLD Card you should change your handle to Spin Doctor. It was 11 not 13, and 11 is 1/3rd of 32. D1 Makes up 1/3rd of the leauge. Where is the domination?

[PPHSfan]

There are only 96 playoff spots to go around each year. Anything past 3rd place is irrelevant. Old Cardinal wants you to believe that there are only 32 D1 teams when in fact there are 70. (If one third of the playoff spots go to D1 and 2/3rds goes to D2, and the leauge has 207 teams, then there are 70 D1 teams and 140 D2 teams, give or take a couple. Now if only 11 of the 32 districts are won by D1 teams, that is just about 1/3rd of the districts. You win 1/3rd of the districts and you bring 32 teams to a 96 team bracket, you are doing just exactly what is expected of you. No more, No less. D1 does not dominate, they are simply doing their job.

[slpybear the bullfan]

Amen to that PPHSfan.

These DI arguments are a joke. Read my reply on PPHS's other thread.

If the big schools in the state are so dominant, then why could they win their individual districts only 31% of the time.

Huh? What's that?...

And again, this talk of DI teams before the season is over is also crazy. There are no predifined DI schools. The cut line will change each year and teams go either way. Go back and read PPHSfans post earlier about the enrollments on some of those "DI LARGE SCHOOLS".

Indeed...