Tommy Tuberville to Arkansas

[big daddy russ]

A TV station out of Fayetteville is reporting that Tubbs and Arkansas have come to a verbal agreement, citing sources within Arkansas program. However, no contract has been signed and no press conference has been called, so things could change anytime.

He could still re-up with Auburn, though. The way these things usually shake out is one school (in this case Arkie) approaches a coach (Tuberville) and tells him that they'll buy out his contract, are willing to pay him X amount of dollars over so many years, and are willing to do these upgrades in facilities (which Arkie doesn't need many).

The coach usually either says no, that he'll think about it, or that he's on board, but wants to talk to his AD about his current situation first.

link (http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/11/29/breaking-media-reports-tuberville-to-arkansas/)

[GreenMonster]

Why does this guys name keep popping up for open coaching jobs? Is Auburn that bad of a place to be? He obviously has the Tigers on the right track. He wins year in and year out. So why is he always rumored to be leaving? Are the facilities poor? Is he underpaid? Personality conflict with the AD? What's the deal? Does anyone know the answer? How about you Russ?

[KTJ]

Everything else I've seen is saying this isn't true at all.

Even Auburn message boards.

[g$$]

Originally posted by GreenMonster
Why does this guys name keep popping up for open coaching jobs? Is Auburn that bad of a place to be? He obviously has the Tigers on the right track. He wins year in and year out. So why is he always rumored to be leaving? Are the facilities poor? Is he underpaid? Personality conflict with the AD? What's the deal? Does anyone know the answer? How about you Russ?

Auburn's facilities need work, he makes over $2 million, & yes he has had problems with the former President/AD & a prominent booster who tried to hire Bobby Petrino a few years ago behind his back. Now a new Prez & AD are in place though. I thought Tuberville agreed to a new deal & extension this week (like $2.8M thru 2012)? Guess it has not been signed yet.

Houston radio is reporting Mike Leach is on a private plane today from Lubbock to Fayetteville. John Granato even named some sources of his who confirmed it. Leach still may leave for UCLA though after Karl Dorrell gets fired shortly. Just fyi, take fwiw. ARK has the facilities & $$ to woo about anybody.

[big daddy russ]

Originally posted by GreenMonster
Why does this guys name keep popping up for open coaching jobs? Is Auburn that bad of a place to be? He obviously has the Tigers on the right track. He wins year in and year out. So why is he always rumored to be leaving? Are the facilities poor? Is he underpaid? Personality conflict with the AD? What's the deal? Does anyone know the answer? How about you Russ?
Part of it is just that he's in high demand, the rest is just that he's had some problems on the Plains in the past.

Auburn's head booster, Bobby Lowder, tried to oust Tuberville a few years back under Tubbs' nose. He flew his own personal jet to Louisville to try to hire former Auburn OC and Tubbs' close friend Bobby Petrino to come take Tubbs' place.

Apparently, Petrino was mulling it over when the media got a hold of it and ran with it. That was during the 2003 season, when Auburn's Jason Campbell, Cadillac Williams, and Ronnie Brown were all juniors and stud LB's Dontarrious Thomas and Karlos Dansby and stud DL DeMarco McNeil and Reggie Torbor were seniors. High expectations (ranked 6th in the preseason AP poll) were shattered by what turned out to be a disappointing eight-win season.

But the media got hold of the story, found out what a slimeball the old AD, administration, and Lowder (Lowder pretty much runs that campus... he is Auburn's key booster and has his hands all over that university) were up to, and they had to give Tubbs another chance just to save face.

Then Tubbs threw it in their face by putting together an undefeated season.

I've heard tons of rumors that Lowder doesn't like Tubbs, but by most other accounts I've heard (and these are just rumors, nothing factual... a lot of message board fodder), Tubbs and Lowder have a good working relationship now. The flip side to all this, though, is that Tubbs has never felt secure in his job at Auburn. Lowder could change his mind at any moment and go under Tubbs' nose all over again.

The truth of it all is probably somewhere in between. Tubbs has never been the kind of guy to hold grudges, is well-regarded as one of the most likeable coaches in the SEC, and in all likelihood has long since forgiven Lowder. But that doesn't mean Tubbs trusts the man.

Here's the reality of Tuberville's situation:
-He's from Arkansas. Graduated from some regional college up there... want to say Central Arkansas.
-He can't trust the administration outside of current AD Jay Jacobs (who came there after the university was forced to clean house and wash their hands of the Petrino situation). Jacobs is anything but a 'yes' man, but no single person has more control over that university than Lowder.
-His stock has never been higher. Everyone else can see what he did with an overacheiving team and underacheiving QB this year.
-He trusts his coordinators and gives them more control than most coaches.
-For a school that compares everything they do against the University of Alabama, he needs to put together a 10-win season next year in order to feel true job security. He's had great results by most standards. Here are are his records since that undefeated season:
2005= 9-3, finished 14th in the AP poll
2006= 11-2, ranked 9th
2007= 8-4... and counting, currently 23rd
-He's at a crossroads in his career.

That last statement is the single largest factor in all these rumors. He has the chance to go out and get a long-term paycheck and be completely safe for another four years at a big-time program with all the resources that most of the Wal-Mart corporation can fork over. If he stays at Auburn on the other hand, things are quite a bit more shaky.

He's coming back to a team that doesn't return a lot of top-level talent next year. Ben Tate, Aairon Savage, and Tray Blackmon are absolute studs along with all the rest of those sophs and freshmen. But there's little in the way of talented juniors, so while next year's team will be solid, I don't think they'll be on the short list at teams with a legit shot at an SEC title. So consider this situation:

-Tuberville loses his bowl game. Even if it comes to a superior team, his Tigers still finish 8-5 and out of the top 25.
-His rebuilding year nets him seven wins. It's a likely scenario, whether we realize it now or not.

If he loses this next game, it's an uphill battle at Auburn. The key, I think, will be winning this bowl game. If he wins, it'll give him a little more leeway for a rebuilding year as he'll finish in the top 20 (and possibly the top 15) for the fourth consecutive year. That doesn't look so bad.

If he loses, he stands to finish out of the rankings two years in a row.

Now let's say the team we're supposed to have two years from now flops and doesn't live up to expectations. The grumblings will already be coming from the media to perform now. If it doesn't happen, for injuries, players not developing, whatever reason, how long do you think it will take Lowder to pick up the phone?

My guess is that he wants a long-term contract so that it will be extremely hard for Auburn to buy him out until four or five years from now. He's probably looking for such an enormous buyout a few years down the road, that the university's hands will be tied for no less than four years. Don't be surprised at all to see a seven- eight-year deal (total including the remainder of his current contract) in the $2.5-$3 million a year range.

If he gets that, he'll feel more comfortable coming back. If not, we may see Tubbs on the sidelines in Reynolds next year.

I like Tubbs and genuinely hope he gets the last laugh.

[big daddy russ]

Originally posted by KTJ
Everything else I've seen is saying this isn't true at all.

Even Auburn message boards.
I don't know, man. Coming from a media background, I know how these things work.

When the TV anchor says, "Multiple sources," it means that two or more sources have told him or the news outlet that it's happened.

Typically, a reporter will get a tip and then verify it with someone else. They can ask things like, "Would I be safe to run with this story" and either get a yes or no from the person they're verifying it with. The backup doesn't get in trouble, doesn't spill the beans, and doesn't get cited as a source.

When they say multiple sources, however, several people have come to them and stuck their necks and their credibility out there to get this story rolling. Credibility is a huge thing with sources. It's not just a one-sided coin where the relationship only benefits the media, like most think. That source may want some info, whether dirty or positive, leaked to the media for his or the organization's own gains. These guys leak a lot of info that's not something that the organization can come out and say for fear of looking classless, but if it's leaked without being tied to anyone or anything, it's not as bad.

Considering that sources came to the TV station and stuck their neck out for a coaching hire (which is usually something that earns big brownie points within the media if true and can lead to a lot of mistrust if not), I'd give this story less than a 5% chance of not being true.

[big daddy russ]

More info. Apparently Arkie didn't have permission to talk to Tubbs. I guess we'll see how this all pans out.

From Rivals; 8:31 p.m. Thursday, November 29, 2007

link (http://www.rivals.com/wire.asp)

[g$$]

What are you hearing about Leach? UCLA or ARK or stay in LBK? I see him leaving soon. Then Briles is gonna wish he had waited.

[big daddy russ]

Originally posted by g$$
What are you hearing about Leach? UCLA or ARK or stay in LBK? I see him leaving soon. Then Briles is gonna wish he had waited.
I know Leach flew up to Arkie on a private jet to talk with them, but haven't heard anything else.

I pointed out the UCLA connection a few weeks ago, but never thought it would become this widespread this quickly. My guess was just based on his California ties, Dorrell's likely ouster, the way Leach's system fits the UCLA talent, and the fact that he's due a big job. He's done a great job at Tech and would be a fool not to listen to offers.

That being said, I haven't heard anything solid about him going anywhere. Just a bunch of rumors, mostly from Hawg Sports and other message boards.

If he takes any job outside of Tech, though, I see it being with UCLA. It's not that I've heard anything, it just makes too much sense. Arkie has tons of option and will probably be looking to make a splash with their hire (the Leach hire, although he's a great coach, will resonate about as well as the Les Miles hire at LSU) and his system just doesn't fit with the talent in Fayetteville. Not saying it won't happen (especially if they pony up close to the $3 million per I'm hearing they're willing to spend), just saying it makes the least sense right now.

[g$$]

Leach to UCLA is what I think too. Makes too much sense.