How accurate is WOS87's Power Ranking?

[88bobcats]

WOS87's Power Ranking Thread (http://bbs.3adownlow.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=74584)

:thinking: :thinking: :thinking:
Other than Palestine Westwood over Diboll and Dallas Roosevelt over Royse City, has WOS87's Power Ranking mis-predicted the outcomes of play-off games?

I hope there's a Vegas betting line on WO-S/Waco La Vega and Cuero/Wimberley.....

The Power Ranking would predict

WO-S over Waco La Vega by 8

- and -

Cuero over Wimberley by 15

[injuredinmelee]

he is the MAN

[LHPfactory]

Yeah he knows his stuff, except for putting WOS slightly above LH........(I think thats the homer factor).....;)

[injuredinmelee]

i think WOS is too athletic for LH

[JT44]

Originally posted by injuredinmelee
i think WOS is too athletic for LH

Cuero also.......



but look what happened, athleticism doesn't matter when they put your defense on their back

[Gobbla2001]

Originally posted by injuredinmelee
i think WOS is too athletic for LH

maybe in the past...

not this year, though... this is the most athletic LH as every been... LH is a lot bigger from what I've seen... not as much speed, but they weren't as fast as Cuero either...

Huge oline, stout defense... that bus strolls up full of athletes...

[LHPfactory]

Originally posted by injuredinmelee
i think WOS is too athletic for LH


HaHaHaHa, where have I heard that before, oh yeah, this weekend, when we play Cuero, alot.....cmmmonnn.

If WOS makes the final in D2 they will have much more athleticism than Celina, but sit back and watch what technique, coaching, determination, relentlessness and discipline will do with a team that is too athletic to handle.....

But I dont think WOS will get past Cuero in the Semis....:)

[Gobbla2001]

Originally posted by Gobbla2001
maybe in the past...



and that's not meaning LH is more athletic than WO-S... just means I honestly think they're equal... the only difference is the speed... WO-S wins that factor against LH... but LH wins it in the trenches on both sides of the ball... a very strong team...

either way they won't play... two great teams... toss-up on that game if it would have happened this year...

[Gobbla2001]

Originally posted by LHPfactory


but sit back and watch what technique, coaching, determination, relentlessness and discipline will do with a team that is too athletic to handle.....

I think WO-S knows about all of these factors... they have probably one of the best if not the best coaches in 3A ball, maybe the state... he's been there forever and has established much discipline and the technique has been pounded in these kids since 7th grade...

[LHPfactory]

Originally posted by Gobbla2001
I think WO-S knows about all of these factors... they have probably one of the best if not the best coaches in 3A ball, maybe the state... he's been there forever and has established much discipline and the technique has been pounded in these kids since 7th grade...

They broke down against Giddings last year, The personal fouls were the result of WOS losing their cool. They are well coached and great athletes, I was at the game in Humble. When It got frustrating they didnt hold it together, on the other hand, Last year in the finals, Celina never lost their focus, even in the biggest game of the year.....They kept playing football....Now they may have a different team this year, but im just going by what I personally observed in the 2006 season.

[Gobbla2001]

Originally posted by LHPfactory
They broke down against Giddings last year, The personal fouls were the result of WOS losing their cool. They are well coached and great athletes, I was at the game in Humble. When It got frustrating they didnt hold it together, on the other hand, Last year in the finals, Celina never lost their focus, even in the biggest game of the year.....They kept playing football....

that was one time, though... on the other hand I saw them in a tough game against Bay City back in '04 (or was it '05) and they never lost their cool...

[setxsports]

And this is a young WOS team to!:cool:

[LHPfactory]

Yeah, you may be right, Ive only seen WOS play twice......

1987 vs West Columbia in the dome (That team was huge)

2006 vs Giddings in Humble

[88bobcats]

Originally posted by LHPfactory
They broke down against Giddings last year, The personal fouls were the result of WOS losing their cool. They are well coached and great athletes, I was at the game in Humble. When It got frustrating they didnt hold it together, on the other hand, Last year in the finals, Celina never lost their focus, even in the biggest game of the year.....They kept playing football....Now they may have a different team this year, but im just going by what I personally observed in the 2006 season.

That's a biased opinion of last year's game. I too was at the game, and I believe that most Mustang fans would argue that Giddings, just like last night, was the source of many of the personal foul issues.

[88bobcats]

Back to my question, does anyone know of any other exceptions to the Power Ranking predictions other than the two I listed?

[LHPfactory]

Originally posted by 88bobcats
Back to my question, does anyone know of any other exceptions to the Power Ranking predictions other than the two I listed?

You may have to ask the wizard himself grasshopper, cause I know not the answer there in.

[WOS1]

Originally posted by LHPfactory
They broke down against Giddings last year, The personal fouls were the result of WOS losing their cool. They are well coached and great athletes, I was at the game in Humble. When It got frustrating they didnt hold it together, on the other hand, Last year in the finals, Celina never lost their focus, even in the biggest game of the year.....They kept playing football....Now they may have a different team this year, but im just going by what I personally observed in the 2006 season.

We did have a player lose his cool last year against Giddings. I've seen several teams lose their cool against them. Typically, WOS does not have a problem with personal foul penalties and they WILL NOT have a problem with discipline. If you could only see the countless number of athletes we lose each year because of that reason. Many just do not have the discipline in their home lives to make it at WOS.

As for having more athletes than LH or Celina. In my opinion, just having more speed doesn't give you more athletes, it just means you have more speed. Don't get me wrong, speed helps, but football is a team sport and having the players to have big, strong, athletic (for their size) lines is more valuable then having 4 or 5 kids who run 4.3 40's. If that were the case we would have already won another state title. Luckily, this year we have a few of both. Hopefully, it will be enough.

[WOS1]

Originally posted by 88bobcats
Back to my question, does anyone know of any other exceptions to the Power Ranking predictions other than the two I listed?

I can't see anymore than the 2. That's a pretty darn accurate system. Reckon he could do that for us on the college level?;) Might be able to make a little moolah.:D

Oops... nevermind...:rolleyes:

[LHPfactory]

Originally posted by WOS1
We did have a player lose his cool last year against Giddings. I've seen several teams lose their cool against them. Typically, WOS does not have a problem with personal foul penalties and they WILL NOT have a problem with discipline. If you could only see the countless number of athletes we lose each year because of that reason. Many just do not have the discipline in their home lives to make it at WOS.

As for having more athletes than LH or Celina. In my opinion, just having more speed doesn't give you more athletes, it just means you have more speed. Don't get me wrong, speed helps, but football is a team sport and having the players to have big, strong, athletic (for their size) lines is more valuable then having 4 or 5 kids who run 4.3 40's. If that were the case we would have already won another state title. Luckily, this year we have a few of both. Hopefully, it will be enough.

No offense, I was just responding to the fighting words Injured spoke to me in response to my first post. I have alot of respect for the WOS program, it is one of the best of all time in HS football.

[TAMUGRAD]

Do you mean like:

Jasper (9)
vs.
Navasota (26)
a diff. or 35 places in WOS power ranking

Navasota won that one 42-40

or

Glen Rose (61)
vs.
Prosper (41)
a diff. of 20 places in the ranking

Glen Rose won that one 12-7

or

Chapel Hill (28)
vs.
Pleasant Grove (47)
a diff. of 19 places in the ranking

Pleasant Grove won that one 31-28

or

Palacios (82)
vs.
Rio Hondo (76)
a diff. of 6 places in the ranking

Palacios won that one 28-7

or

Pittsburg (50)
vs.
Canton (49)
a diff. or 1 place in the ranking (now we're splitting hairs)

Pittsburg won that one 45-14

[88bobcats]

Originally posted by TAMUGRAD
Do you mean like:

Jasper (9)
vs.
Navasota (26)
a diff. or 35 places in WOS power ranking

Navasota won that one 42-40

or

Glen Rose (61)
vs.
Prosper (41)
a diff. of 20 places in the ranking

Glen Rose won that one 12-7

or

Chapel Hill (28)
vs.
Pleasant Grove (47)
a diff. of 19 places in the ranking

Pleasant Grove won that one 31-28

or

Palacios (82)
vs.
Rio Hondo (76)
a diff. of 6 places in the ranking

Palacios won that one 28-7

or

Pittsburg (50)
vs.
Canton (49)
a diff. or 1 place in the ranking (now we're splitting hairs)

Pittsburg won that one 45-14

This is exactly the kind of stuff I was looking for.....I haven't been able to track enough of the games to know of all of these.

I wonder if the Power Ranking will become more or less accurate as the play-offs advance. My gut feeling is that they will become less accurate. Don't get me wrong, I like all the work that WOS87 puts into this stuff. I'm just curious as to how accurate it is.

[alaskacat]

Originally posted by LHPfactory
They broke down against Giddings last year, The personal fouls were the result of WOS losing their cool. They are well coached and great athletes, I was at the game in Humble. When It got frustrating they didnt hold it together, on the other hand, Last year in the finals, Celina never lost their focus, even in the biggest game of the year.....They kept playing football....Now they may have a different team this year, but im just going by what I personally observed in the 2006 season.

yup it is a bigger better faster team...If LH was in div II...all I would have to say is Here ..kitty kitty:)

[TAMUGRAD]

Originally posted by 88bobcats
This is exactly the kind of stuff I was looking for.....I haven't been able to track enough of the games to know of all of these.

I wonder if the Power Ranking will become more or less accurate as the play-offs advance. My gut feeling is that they will become less accurate. Don't get me wrong, I like all the work that WOS87 puts into this stuff. I'm just curious as to how accurate it is.

I'll have to agree with you. I think all ranking systems lose their accuracy once the playoffs begin. There are too many outside factors that are not taken into account.

Here are a few examples:

A team's ability to remain focused gets harder and harder each week. It becomes much more of a mental game, and we are talking about kids.

Each week the probability of loosing a key player to injury goes up. Sorry, but football is a rough sport.

And then there is that whole peak thing, some teams may have peaked too early in the season.

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by alaskacat
yup it is a bigger better faster team...If LH was in div II...all I would have to say is Here ..kitty kitty:)
Here kitty kitty would sound good. :D (If you haven't seen us THIS year, don't presume you would win this time around, either.)

[WOS1]

I'm impressed with the beating LH put on Carthage. They were a pretty solid team.

[alaskacat]

Originally posted by LH Panther Mom
Here kitty kitty would sound good. :D (If you haven't seen us THIS year, don't presume you would win this time around, either.)

Yeah Mom but it would be a hoot to watch, I haven't had a good adrenaline rush all year:)

[WOS87]

Using the Week 11 numbers against the results of the 1st round of the playoffs, I predicted 38 games correctly and missed 7. 84.4%

Using the Week 12 numbers against the results of the 2nd round of the playoffs, I predicted 16 games correctly, missed 7, and had 1 at exactly even. 68.8%

If I keep missing 7 every week, it's going to become grossly inaccurate... :p

Actually, I think this week there just happened to be a lot of upsets...

If you look at the Massey Ratings (which have been used in calculating the BCS in the past) you will find that he only went 17-7 in the twenty-four 2nd round games for 3A

He incorrectly predicted: Giddings over WOS, Royse City over Roosevelt, Rio Hondo over Palacios, Caldwell over Kirbyville, Graham over Argyle, Prosper over Glen Rose, and Chapel Hill over Pleasant Grove

I incorrectly predicted: Royse City over Roosevelt, Caldwell over Kribyville, Graham over Argyle, Chapel Hill over Pleasant Grove, Prosper over Glen Rose, Rio Hondo over Palacios, and Jasper over Navasota.

and I had Pittsburg and Canton exactly even

The ratings should become more accurate with each passing week, due to the increased amount of data to compare all of the teams. The problem is that the number of teams dwindles with playoff games and the range in strength also dwindles, so you end up with a smaller number of teams that are becoming increasingly similar in power with each passing round.

In the 1st round of the playoffs we had 93 teams ranging from -35 to +50 in power

In the 2nd round of the playoff we had 48 teams ranging from -15 to +51 in power

In the 3rd round we now only have 24 teams ranging from +3 to +50 in power