WOS87 Statewide Power Rankings Week 8

[WOS87]

It took forever to calculate these numbers. But what they are is almost the perfect mathematical fit to allow for every single game played between two 3A teams so far this season. Only games involving two 3A opponents were taken into account to calculate these numbers, so depending on who your particular team played in nondistrict, varying number of games are not factored in.

Only 173 of the 174 3A teams are listed here because one 3A team has yet to play a 3A opponent over the first 7 weeks (Perryton).

Statewide 3A Power Rankings for Week 8 (Week of Oct. 22nd)
(margin of error +/- 0.06 pts)

1 - 103.28 Celina (9-3A)
2 - 102.08 West Orange-Stark (21-3A)
3 - 101.81 Royse City (10-3A)
4 - 100.94 Waco La Vega (17-3A)
5 - 100.74 Liberty Hill (18-3A)
6 - 100.45 Gilmer (15-3A)
7 - 93.32 Giddings (23-3A)
8 - 92.58 Caldwell (23-3A)
9 - 91.33 Abilene Wylie (7-3A)
10 - 90.44 Argyle (8-3A)
11 - 90.12 Cuero (29-3A)
12 - 89.84 Waco Connally (17-3A)
13 - 89.71 Madisonville (19-3A)
14 - 88.97 Kennedale (12-3A)
15 - 88.59 Graham (6-3A)
16 - 88.04 Bellville (23-3A)
17 - 87.97 Frisco Wakeland (9-3A)
18 - 87.33 Robinson (17-3A)
19 - 84.36 Diboll (20-3A)
20 - 84.27 Longview Spring Hill (15-3A)
21 - 84.04 Carthage (20-3A)
22 - 83.96 Crockett (20-3A)
23 - 83.68 Clyde (7-3A)
24 - 83.21 Navasota (23-3A)
25 - 83.11 Tyler Chapel Hill (14-3A)
26 - 82.28 Jasper (21-3A)
27 - 82.07 Prosper (9-3A)
28 - 81.30 Liberty-Eylau (16-3A)
29 - 80.51 Silsbee (21-3A)
30 - 79.81 Palestine Westwood (19-3A)
31 - 79.79 Burkburnett (6-3A)
32 - 79.65 China Spring (17-3A)
33 - 79.15 Pleasant Grove (16-3A)
34 - 79.13 Kirbyville (21-3A)
35 - 78.37 Canyon (5-3A)
36 - 77.36 Vernon (6-3A)
37 - 77.13 Hamshire-Fannett (21-3A)
38 - 76.69 Palestine (19-3A)
39 - 76.03 Sweetwater (7-3A)
40 - 74.93 Coldspring (22-3A)
41 - 74.92 Needville (24-3A)
42 - 74.41 Van (14-3A)
43 - 73.51 West Columbia (24-3A)
44 - 73.41 Rockdale (18-3A)
45 - 72.34 Whitesboro (9-3A)
46 - 71.62 Canton (14-3A)
47 - 71.54 Andrews (3-3A)
48 - 71.50 Sealy (24-3A)
49 - 71.23 Atlanta (16-3A)
50 - 70.82 Columbus (24-3A)
51 - 70.75 Snyder (3-3A)
52 - 70.50 Bridgeport (8-3A)
53 - 70.27 Fort Stockton (1-3A)
54 - 70.14 Kaufman (13-3A)
55 - 69.70 Wimberley (25-3A)
56 - 69.42 Decatur (8-3A)
57 - 69.10 Mabank (13-3A)
58 - 68.74 Gonzales (29-3A)
59 - 68.44 Hutto (18-3A)
60 - 68.27 Dallas Roosevelt (11-3A)
61 - 68.00 Athens (14-3A)
62 - 67.87 Monahans (1-3A)
63 - 67.50 Nevada Community (10-3A)
64 - 67.26 Rio Hondo (32-3A)
65 - 66.63 Bullard (14-3A)
66 - 66.33 Bowie (8-3A)
67 - 66.23 Midland Greenwood (3-3A)
68 - 65.87 Cameron (18-3A)
69 - 65.60 Glen Rose (12-3A)
70 - 65.29 Breckenridge (7-3A)
71 - 64.76 Brookshire Royal (24-3A)
72 - 64.34 Dallas Madison (11-3A)
73 - 64.21 Wills Point (10-3A)
74 - 64.10 Iowa Park (6-3A)
75 - 63.70 Llano (25-3A)
76 - 62.99 Palacios (29-3A)
77 - 62.70 La Grange (23-3A)
78 - 61.69 Carrollton Ranchview (11-3A)
79 - 61.28 Pittsburg (16-3A)
80 - 61.18 Quinlan Ford (10-3A)
81 - 61.02 Hondo (28-3A)
82 - 60.63 Brownfield (4-3A)
83 - 60.62 Pleasanton (27-3A)
84 - 60.11 Pilot Point (9-3A)
85 - 59.81 Wharton (24-3A)
86 - 59.10 Seminole (4-3A)
87 - 58.71 Hidalgo (32-3A)
88 - 58.69 Ferris (13-3A)
89 - 58.66 Splendora (22-3A)
90 - 58.50 Brownsboro (14-3A)
91 - 58.41 Orangefield (21-3A)
92 - 57.62 Mexia (19-3A)
93 - 56.83 Center (20-3A)
94 - 56.43 West (12-3A)
95 - 55.84 Lubbock Cooper (4-3A)
96 - 54.37 Port Isabel (32-3A)
97 - 54.35 Sweeny (24-3A)
98 - 54.25 Whitney (12-3A)
99 - 54.24 Hillsboro (12-3A)
100 - 53.71 Smithville (23-3A)
101 - 53.36 Levelland (4-3A)
102 - 53.12 Gainesville (8-3A)
103 - 52.88 Lake Worth (11-3A)
104 - 52.88 Groesbeck (19-3A)
105 - 52.60 Liberty (22-3A)
106 - 52.37 Devine (28-3A)
107 - 52.25 Princeton (9-3A)
108 - 52.07 Commerce (10-3A)
109 - 51.68 White Oak (15-3A)
110 - 50.90 Sanger (8-3A)
111 - 50.90 Fairfield (19-3A)
112 - 50.79 Lorena (17-3A)
113 - 50.77 La Vernia (26-3A)
114 - 49.77 Cleveland (22-3A)
115 - 49.69 Taylor (18-3A)
116 - 49.11 La Feria (32-3A)
117 - 48.72 CC West Oso (30-3A)
118 - 46.60 Emory Rains (10-3A)
119 - 46.32 Gatesville (17-3A)
120 - 45.49 Ingleside (30-3A)
121 - 45.43 Lytle (27-3A)
122 - 45.02 Medina Valley (27-3A)
123 - 44.54 Luling (26-3A)
124 - 44.40 Bandera (25-3A)
125 - 44.32 Hardin-Jefferson (21-3A)
126 - 43.88 Mount Vernon (16-3A)
127 - 43.45 Shepherd (22-3A)
128 - 43.16 Yoakum (29-3A)
129 - 43.13 Anthony (1-3A)
130 - 42.82 Crandall (13-3A)
131 - 41.91 Gladewater (15-3A)
132 - 40.42 Poteet (27-3A)
133 - 40.25 Stafford (24-3A)
134 - 39.97 Raymondville (31-3A)
135 - 39.79 Crystal City (28-3A)
136 - 39.68 Rusk (20-3A)
137 - 39.42 Mathis (30-3A)
138 - 38.43 Van Alstyne (9-3A)
139 - 38.30 Orange Grove (30-3A)
140 - 37.51 Mineola (15-3A)
141 - 37.36 Fabens (1-3A)
142 - 36.59 Comanche (7-3A)
143 - 36.17 Eustace (13-3A)
144 - 35.80 Borger (5-3A)
145 - 33.68 Pecos (1-3A)
146 - 33.19 Bridge City (21-3A)
147 - 32.71 Huntington (20-3A)
148 - 32.69 Dalhart (5-3A)
149 - 32.12 Kemp (13-3A)
150 - 32.10 Sinton (30-3A)
151 - 30.96 Clint (1-3A)
152 - 30.79 Pearsall (28-3A)
153 - 30.74 Lyford (31-3A)
154 - 29.85 South San Antonio West (26-3A)
155 - 29.54 FW Castleberry (11-3A)
156 - 29.49 Wichita Falls Hirschi (6-3A)
157 - 29.34 Zapata (31-3A)
158 - 29.33 Tarkington (22-3A)
159 - 28.83 Gladewater Sabine (15-3A)
160 - 27.90 Goliad (29-3A)
161 - 26.39 Progreso (32-3A)
162 - 25.16 Marion (26-3A)
163 - 24.60 Bonham (9-3A)
164 - 19.63 FW Diamond Hill-Jarvis (11-3A)
165 - 14.30 Somerset (27-3A)
166 - 13.79 Lamesa (3-3A)
167 - 12.23 Aransas Pass (30-3A)
168 - 7.92 Tornillo (1-3A)
169 - 3.13 Venus (12-3A)
170 - 2.91 Carrizo Springs (28-3A)
171 - 1.72 Falfurrias (31-3A)
172 - 0.80 Ingram Moore (25-3A)
173 - 0.00 San Diego (31-3A)


The numbers are the average relative offensive power each team has had for each game played so far this season.

Example: Celina has played five 3A opponents
beat Robinson by 13
beat Princeton by 29
beat Frisco Wakeland by 36
beat Pilot Point by 50
beat Van Alstyne by 62

You can score Celina's relative performance in each game by adding their margin of victory to each opponent's power number.

Robinson 87.33 + 13 = 100.33 pts for Celina
Princeton 52.25 + 29 = 81.25 pts for Celina
Wakeland 87.97 + 36 = 123.97 pts for Celina
Pilot Point 60.11 + 50 = 110.11 pts for Celina
Van Alstyne 38.43 + 62 = 100.43 pts for Celina

These numbers can be used to compare relative performance between games (Celina's worst relative performance was against Princeton, the best was against Wakeland).

The average score per game should be extremely close to the power ranking total for all 173 teams, which is how you can check the validity of any team's relative ranking. The average of Celina's 5 game scores is 103.22 (only 0.06 away from their power total of 103. 28).

If you're saying "so what?", try coming up with your own relative strengths for 173 teams and then make them fit exactly every game that every team has played.....

[GreenMonster]

Originally posted by WOS87
It took forever to calculate these numbers. But what they are is almost the perfect mathematical fit to allow for every single game played between two 3A teams so far this season. Only games involving two 3A opponents were taken into account to calculate these numbers, so depending on who your particular team played in nondistrict, varying number of games are not factored in.

Only 173 of the 174 3A teams are listed here because one 3A team has yet to play a 3A opponent over the first 7 weeks (Perryton).

Statewide 3A Power Rankings for Week 8 (Week of Oct. 22nd)
(margin of error +/- 0.06 pts)

1 - 103.28 Celina (9-3A)
2 - 102.08 West Orange-Stark (21-3A)
3 - 101.81 Royse City (10-3A)
4 - 100.94 Waco La Vega (17-3A)
5 - 100.74 Liberty Hill (18-3A)
6 - 100.45 Gilmer (15-3A)
7 - 93.32 Giddings (23-3A)
8 - 92.58 Caldwell (23-3A)
9 - 91.33 Abilene Wylie (7-3A)
10 - 90.44 Argyle (8-3A)
11 - 90.12 Cuero (29-3A)
12 - 89.84 Waco Connally (17-3A)
13 - 89.71 Madisonville (19-3A)
14 - 88.97 Kennedale (12-3A)
15 - 88.59 Graham (6-3A)
16 - 88.04 Bellville (23-3A)
17 - 87.97 Frisco Wakeland (9-3A)
18 - 87.33 Robinson (17-3A)
19 - 84.36 Diboll (20-3A)
20 - 84.27 Longview Spring Hill (15-3A)
21 - 84.04 Carthage (20-3A)
22 - 83.96 Crockett (20-3A)
23 - 83.68 Clyde (7-3A)
24 - 83.21 Navasota (23-3A)
25 - 83.11 Tyler Chapel Hill (14-3A)
26 - 82.28 Jasper (21-3A)
27 - 82.07 Prosper (9-3A)
28 - 81.30 Liberty-Eylau (16-3A)
29 - 80.51 Silsbee (21-3A)
30 - 79.81 Palestine Westwood (19-3A)
31 - 79.79 Burkburnett (6-3A)
32 - 79.65 China Spring (17-3A)
33 - 79.15 Pleasant Grove (16-3A)
34 - 79.13 Kirbyville (21-3A)
35 - 78.37 Canyon (5-3A)
36 - 77.36 Vernon (6-3A)
37 - 77.13 Hamshire-Fannett (21-3A)
38 - 76.69 Palestine (19-3A)
39 - 76.03 Sweetwater (7-3A)
40 - 74.93 Coldspring (22-3A)
41 - 74.92 Needville (24-3A)
42 - 74.41 Van (14-3A)
43 - 73.51 West Columbia (24-3A)
44 - 73.41 Rockdale (18-3A)
45 - 72.34 Whitesboro (9-3A)
46 - 71.62 Canton (14-3A)
47 - 71.54 Andrews (3-3A)
48 - 71.50 Sealy (24-3A)
49 - 71.23 Atlanta (16-3A)
50 - 70.82 Columbus (24-3A)
51 - 70.75 Snyder (3-3A)
52 - 70.50 Bridgeport (8-3A)
53 - 70.27 Fort Stockton (1-3A)
54 - 70.14 Kaufman (13-3A)
55 - 69.70 Wimberley (25-3A)
56 - 69.42 Decatur (8-3A)
57 - 69.10 Mabank (13-3A)
58 - 68.74 Gonzales (29-3A)
59 - 68.44 Hutto (18-3A)
60 - 68.27 Dallas Roosevelt (11-3A)
61 - 68.00 Athens (14-3A)
62 - 67.87 Monahans (1-3A)
63 - 67.50 Nevada Community (10-3A)
64 - 67.26 Rio Hondo (32-3A)
65 - 66.63 Bullard (14-3A)
66 - 66.33 Bowie (8-3A)
67 - 66.23 Midland Greenwood (3-3A)
68 - 65.87 Cameron (18-3A)
69 - 65.60 Glen Rose (12-3A)
70 - 65.29 Breckenridge (7-3A)
71 - 64.76 Brookshire Royal (24-3A)
72 - 64.34 Dallas Madison (11-3A)
73 - 64.21 Wills Point (10-3A)
74 - 64.10 Iowa Park (6-3A)
75 - 63.70 Llano (25-3A)
76 - 62.99 Palacios (29-3A)
77 - 62.70 La Grange (23-3A)
78 - 61.69 Carrollton Ranchview (11-3A)
79 - 61.28 Pittsburg (16-3A)
80 - 61.18 Quinlan Ford (10-3A)
81 - 61.02 Hondo (28-3A)
82 - 60.63 Brownfield (4-3A)
83 - 60.62 Pleasanton (27-3A)
84 - 60.11 Pilot Point (9-3A)
85 - 59.81 Wharton (24-3A)
86 - 59.10 Seminole (4-3A)
87 - 58.71 Hidalgo (32-3A)
88 - 58.69 Ferris (13-3A)
89 - 58.66 Splendora (22-3A)
90 - 58.50 Brownsboro (14-3A)
91 - 58.41 Orangefield (21-3A)
92 - 57.62 Mexia (19-3A)
93 - 56.83 Center (20-3A)
94 - 56.43 West (12-3A)
95 - 55.84 Lubbock Cooper (4-3A)
96 - 54.37 Port Isabel (32-3A)
97 - 54.35 Sweeny (24-3A)
98 - 54.25 Whitney (12-3A)
99 - 54.24 Hillsboro (12-3A)
100 - 53.71 Smithville (23-3A)
101 - 53.36 Levelland (4-3A)
102 - 53.12 Gainesville (8-3A)
103 - 52.88 Lake Worth (11-3A)
104 - 52.88 Groesbeck (19-3A)
105 - 52.60 Liberty (22-3A)
106 - 52.37 Devine (28-3A)
107 - 52.25 Princeton (9-3A)
108 - 52.07 Commerce (10-3A)
109 - 51.68 White Oak (15-3A)
110 - 50.90 Sanger (8-3A)
111 - 50.90 Fairfield (19-3A)
112 - 50.79 Lorena (17-3A)
113 - 50.77 La Vernia (26-3A)
114 - 49.77 Cleveland (22-3A)
115 - 49.69 Taylor (18-3A)
116 - 49.11 La Feria (32-3A)
117 - 48.72 CC West Oso (30-3A)
118 - 46.60 Emory Rains (10-3A)
119 - 46.32 Gatesville (17-3A)
120 - 45.49 Ingleside (30-3A)
121 - 45.43 Lytle (27-3A)
122 - 45.02 Medina Valley (27-3A)
123 - 44.54 Luling (26-3A)
124 - 44.40 Bandera (25-3A)
125 - 44.32 Hardin-Jefferson (21-3A)
126 - 43.88 Mount Vernon (16-3A)
127 - 43.45 Shepherd (22-3A)
128 - 43.16 Yoakum (29-3A)
129 - 43.13 Anthony (1-3A)
130 - 42.82 Crandall (13-3A)
131 - 41.91 Gladewater (15-3A)
132 - 40.42 Poteet (27-3A)
133 - 40.25 Stafford (24-3A)
134 - 39.97 Raymondville (31-3A)
135 - 39.79 Crystal City (28-3A)
136 - 39.68 Rusk (20-3A)
137 - 39.42 Mathis (30-3A)
138 - 38.43 Van Alstyne (9-3A)
139 - 38.30 Orange Grove (30-3A)
140 - 37.51 Mineola (15-3A)
141 - 37.36 Fabens (1-3A)
142 - 36.59 Comanche (7-3A)
143 - 36.17 Eustace (13-3A)
144 - 35.80 Borger (5-3A)
145 - 33.68 Pecos (1-3A)
146 - 33.19 Bridge City (21-3A)
147 - 32.71 Huntington (20-3A)
148 - 32.69 Dalhart (5-3A)
149 - 32.12 Kemp (13-3A)
150 - 32.10 Sinton (30-3A)
151 - 30.96 Clint (1-3A)
152 - 30.79 Pearsall (28-3A)
153 - 30.74 Lyford (31-3A)
154 - 29.85 South San Antonio West (26-3A)
155 - 29.54 FW Castleberry (11-3A)
156 - 29.49 Wichita Falls Hirschi (6-3A)
157 - 29.34 Zapata (31-3A)
158 - 29.33 Tarkington (22-3A)
159 - 28.83 Gladewater Sabine (15-3A)
160 - 27.90 Goliad (29-3A)
161 - 26.39 Progreso (32-3A)
162 - 25.16 Marion (26-3A)
163 - 24.60 Bonham (9-3A)
164 - 19.63 FW Diamond Hill-Jarvis (11-3A)
165 - 14.30 Somerset (27-3A)
166 - 13.79 Lamesa (3-3A)
167 - 12.23 Aransas Pass (30-3A)
168 - 7.92 Tornillo (1-3A)
169 - 3.13 Venus (12-3A)
170 - 2.91 Carrizo Springs (28-3A)
171 - 1.72 Falfurrias (31-3A)
172 - 0.80 Ingram Moore (25-3A)
173 - 0.00 San Diego (31-3A)


The numbers are the average relative offensive power each team has had for each game played so far this season.

Example: Celina has played five 3A opponents
beat Robinson by 13
beat Princeton by 29
beat Frisco Wakeland by 36
beat Pilot Point by 50
beat Van Alstyne by 62

You can score Celina's relative performance in each game by adding their margin of victory to each opponent's power number.

Robinson 87.33 + 16 = 103.33 pts for Celina
Princeton 52.25 + 29 = 81.25 pts for Celina
Wakeland 87.97 + 36 = 123.97 pts for Celina
Pilot Point 60.11 + 50 = 110.11 pts for Celina
Van Alstyne 38.43 + 62 = 100.43 pts for Celina

These numbers can be used to compare relative performance between games (Celina's worst relative performance was against Princeton, the best was against Wakeland).

The average score per game should be extremely close to the power ranking total for all 173 teams, which is how you can check the validity of any team's relative ranking. The average of Celina's 5 game scores is 103.22 (only 0.06 away from their power total of 103. 28).

If you're saying "so what?", try coming up with your own relative strengths for 173 teams and then make them fit exactly every game that every team has played.....

Thanks once again WOS, your diligence is appreciated.

[necks_c/09]

133 - 40.25 Stafford (24-3A):eek:

[block&tackle]

I predict that Celina will fall out of #1 after next weekend - if I understand this right we would have to beat Bonham by 78 points to maintain our current position. We could but we won't.

[WOS87]

Using Stafford as an example

they lost to Cuero by 58 pts
lost to Liberty by 3 pts
lost to Brookshire by 12 pts
lost to West Columbia by 33 pts
lost to Sweeny by 13 pts
lost to Wharton by 35 pts

Cuero 90.12 power - 58 pt loss = 32.12 pts for Stafford
Liberty 52.60 - 3 pts = 49.60 pts
Brookshire 64.76 - 12 pts = 52.76 pts
West Columbia 73.51 - 33 pts = 40.51 pts
Sweeny 54.35 - 13 pts = 41.35 pts
Wharton 59.81 - 35 pts = 24.81 pts

They probably played their best game against Brookshire, and their worst against Wharton.

The average: (32.12 + 49.60 + 52.76 + 40.51 + 41.35 + 24.81) / 6 = 40.19 (Stafford's rating is 40.25)

[WOS87]

Originally posted by block&tackle
I predict that Celina will fall out of #1 after next weekend - if I understand this right we would have to beat Bonham by 78 points to maintain our current position. We could but we won't.

Maybe not, because the more games you play, the less each individual game affects the total.

[block&tackle]

Let say the score is 60-0 - 60 is probably as bad as it could get. As that will be the 6th game against a 3A opponent, would it drop Celina's rating by 3 points ({78-60}/6)?

I like this. What numbers did you start with?

[WOS87]

Originally posted by block&tackle
Let say the score is 60-0 - 60 is probably as bad as it could get. As that will be the 6th game against a 3A opponent, would it drop Celina's rating by 3 points ({78-60}/6)?

I like this. What numbers did you start with?

I normalize it so that the last place team always has 0.00 points. The calculations come out the same as long as the relative differences don't change. I could have Celina with 0.00 points and San Diego with -103 and it still comes out the same.

Also, if any of the prior 5 opponents perform exceptionally well, Celina's score will go up indirectly as well since every single team is interconnected.

[block&tackle]

Paired with your projected play-off brackets:

Division 1

Regional Finals

Abilene Wylie over Andrews
Royce City over Gilmer
Liberty Hill over Navasota
Gonzales over Hondo

Semi-Finals

Royse City over Abilene Wylie
Liberty Hill over Gonzales

Final

Royse City over Liberty Hill


Division 2

Regional Finals

Argyle over Clyde
Celina over Pleasant Grove
WOS over Caldwell
Cuero over Wimberley

Semis

Celina over Argyle
WOS over Cuero

Final

Celina over WOS


Early Exits by "Big-Boys"

Giddings - 2nd Round
Graham - 2nd Round

[bobcat04]

Great job but just curious how Navasota ranks behind Bellville a team they beat? I would like to see the breakdown. Thanks...Bobcat

[crabman]

Rio Hondo at 64 and Hidalgo at 87. Those are supposedly the two best teams in the valley. Significant?

[burnet44]

Originally posted by crabman
Rio Hondo at 64 and Hidalgo at 87. Those are supposedly the two best teams in the valley. Significant?

lol

[charlesrixey]

Originally posted by WOS87
I normalize it so that the last place team always has 0.00 points. The calculations come out the same as long as the relative differences don't change. I could have Celina with 0.00 points and San Diego with -103 and it still comes out the same.

Also, if any of the prior 5 opponents perform exceptionally well, Celina's score will go up indirectly as well since every single team is interconnected.

what program do you put this into?

access?

excel?

this looks mathematically similar to what collier-sharp used to do

i can't imagine how long it took to type all of that crap in

[WOS87]

Originally posted by bobcat04
Great job but just curious how Navasota ranks behind Bellville a team they beat? I would like to see the breakdown. Thanks...Bobcat

Navasota

Lost by 14 to Madisonville 89.71 - 14 = 75.71
Won by 7 over Cleveland 49.77 + 7 = 56.77
Won by 24 over Coldspring 74.93 + 24 = 98.93
Won by 10 over Bellville 88.04 + 10 = 98.04
Lost by 7 to Giddings 93.32 - 7 = 86.32

(75.71 + 56.77 + 98.93 + 98.04 + 86.32)/5 = 83.15


Bellville

Won by 28 over Sealy 71.50 + 28 = 99.50
Won by 21 over West Columbia 73.51 + 21 = 94.51
Lost by 10 to Navasota 83.21 - 10 = 73.21
Won by 31 over Smithville 53.71 + 31 = 84.71

(99.50 + 94.51 + 73.21 + 84.71) / 4 = 87.98

Looks like the 7 point win over (1-6) Cleveland hurt Navasota more than either of their losses, as it should have been more like a 35 point win to maintain a rating in the 80's. Bellville handily beat two very strong teams, while Navasota barely got by a lower tier one.

[WOS87]

Originally posted by charlesrixey
what program do you put this into?

access?

excel?

this looks mathematically similar to what collier-sharp used to do

i can't imagine how long it took to type all of that crap in

Just on a generic spreadsheet program for Mac with a very good selection of functions available with which to transform and compile data

[Bull Butter]

Originally posted by crabman
Rio Hondo at 64 and Hidalgo at 87. Those are supposedly the two best teams in the valley. Significant?

And to think Cuero only beat them 21-8!:eek:

[scott Wilson]

And after all that mathematics, the kids will still settle it on the field come playoff time. LOL

[footballgal]

Originally posted by scott Wilson
And after all that mathematics, the kids will still settle it on the field come playoff time. LOL +1


But thanks so much for all the work WOS87 :)

[sweetwater07]

Originally posted by crabman
Rio Hondo at 64 and Hidalgo at 87. Those are supposedly the two best teams in the valley. Significant?


the valley has garbage teams, not saying they aren;t good, but the teams they play would probably compare to sweetwater playing comanche every game until playoffs

[footballgal]

I wouldn't call 32-5A Edcouch-Elsa, nor Corpus Christi West Oso garbage.

[WOS87]

Originally posted by footballgal
I wouldn't call 32-5A Edcouch-Elsa, nor Corpus Christi West Oso garbage.

I think part of the reason the valley teams come out so low in pretty much all of the ratings, is because there has been only one game so far this season in which a 3A team south of Corpus has beaten a 3A team from Corpus northward and that was Zapata's win over Carrizo Springs.... otherwise, every game that's out there to compare the Valley teams with more northern teams is a loss. West Oso is 4-0 against valley 3A teams this year, Mathis is 2-0, Ingleside is 2-0, Orange Grove is 1-0, Aransas Pass is 1-0, Crystal City is 1-0.

You can make dozens of different series of losses connecting 3A teams, starting in the Valley and moving northwards. Here's an extreme example using San Diego:

San Diego lost to Zapata by 20 points.
Zapata lost to Crystal City by 3 points.
Crystal City lost to Devine by 26 points.
Devine lost to Bandera by 7 points.
Bandera lost to La Vernia by 27 points.
La Vernia lost to Gonzales by 21 points.
Gonzales lost to Hutto by 19 points.
Hutto lost to Rockdale by 20 points.
Rockdale lost to Madisonville by 32 points.
Madisonville lost to Coldspring by 10 points.
Coldspring lost to Navasota by 24 points.
Navasota lost to Giddings by 7 points.

Now I know people are going to say, well you can find a way to make any team look bad that way.... which may be true to an extent... but try doing the opposite, using wins instead of losses....

The best that exists is:

Port Isabel beat Zapata by 29 points.
Zapata beat Carrizo Springs by 21 points.
and it ends there because Carrizo Springs is winless.

[footballgal]

the only valley team West Oso has played is PI, don't know who the other 3 are????:confused:


(btw, I meant to say 32-4A Edcouch-Elsa not 5A)

[Johnny 5]

Originally posted by Bull Butter
And to think Cuero only beat them 21-8!:eek:

Which shows you that these are nothing except something for us to argue about on the internet.

Just like Calpreps and Massey Ratings

[sotxrat]

I think he may be considering Fal and Zapata as valley teams.

[lion75]

Originally posted by bobcat04
Great job but just curious how Navasota ranks behind Bellville a team they beat? I would like to see the breakdown. Thanks...Bobcat Graham is behind Wylie and Vernon is behind Burk. Both are teams behind teams that they beat. But I guess no system is perfect. There is definitely a method to it.

[footballgal]

Originally posted by sotxrat
I think he may be considering Fal and Zapata as valley teams. That's like two hours away from any valley town, and over 3 for PI. But ok.

[Panther One]

Rating systems have a hard time truly accounting for home field advantage, turnovers, etc. Just because team B beat team A doesn't necessarily mean team B is better. Play 9 more times and see what happens. Team A might win all 9. That's what makes this game so exciting. If the best team always won, I don't think there'd be as much interest.

Rankings tell you which team is favored based on how the games have played out this season. But remember, with any ranking system, there's a starting point, so the accuracy of the current rankings depends greatly upon how accurate the initial rankings were. As the season progresses, the rankings improve and more closely reflect reality, but anomalies still happen.

[sinton66]

You have to remember that these are relative Power rankings, not neccessarily "best team" rankings. What you will see toward the end of the season is that the numbers for the better teams will improve and the overall rankings will level out and be more accurate. Data Poll used to be based on similar calculations. Even Data Poll, as good as it was, wasn't worth much until the playoffs began because it needed a whole season of data to work with.

[nfcfan]

Originally posted by crabman
Rio Hondo at 64 and Hidalgo at 87. Those are supposedly the two best teams in the valley. Significant?


Not really significant, considering there is only one Region IV team in the top 40! yikes! - now that's significant :thinking:

[Reds fan]

Thank you for all the hours of work WOS87!

This power ranking does lend credence to D23's strength this year, 4 teams from D23 in the top 24.

[Dominicfrank]

Originally posted by WOS87
It took forever to calculate these numbers. But what they are is almost the perfect mathematical fit to allow for every single game played between two 3A teams so far this season. Only games involving two 3A opponents were taken into account to calculate these numbers, so depending on who your particular team played in nondistrict, varying number of games are not factored in.

Only 173 of the 174 3A teams are listed here because one 3A team has yet to play a 3A opponent over the first 7 weeks (Perryton).

Statewide 3A Power Rankings for Week 8 (Week of Oct. 22nd)
(margin of error +/- 0.06 pts)

1 - 103.28 Celina (9-3A)
2 - 102.08 West Orange-Stark (21-3A)
3 - 101.81 Royse City (10-3A)
4 - 100.94 Waco La Vega (17-3A)
5 - 100.74 Liberty Hill (18-3A)
6 - 100.45 Gilmer (15-3A)
7 - 93.32 Giddings (23-3A)
8 - 92.58 Caldwell (23-3A)
9 - 91.33 Abilene Wylie (7-3A)
10 - 90.44 Argyle (8-3A)
11 - 90.12 Cuero (29-3A)
12 - 89.84 Waco Connally (17-3A)
13 - 89.71 Madisonville (19-3A)
14 - 88.97 Kennedale (12-3A)
15 - 88.59 Graham (6-3A)
16 - 88.04 Bellville (23-3A)
17 - 87.97 Frisco Wakeland (9-3A)
18 - 87.33 Robinson (17-3A)
19 - 84.36 Diboll (20-3A)
20 - 84.27 Longview Spring Hill (15-3A)
21 - 84.04 Carthage (20-3A)
22 - 83.96 Crockett (20-3A)
23 - 83.68 Clyde (7-3A)
24 - 83.21 Navasota (23-3A)
25 - 83.11 Tyler Chapel Hill (14-3A)
26 - 82.28 Jasper (21-3A)
27 - 82.07 Prosper (9-3A)
28 - 81.30 Liberty-Eylau (16-3A)
29 - 80.51 Silsbee (21-3A)
30 - 79.81 Palestine Westwood (19-3A)
31 - 79.79 Burkburnett (6-3A)
32 - 79.65 China Spring (17-3A)
33 - 79.15 Pleasant Grove (16-3A)
34 - 79.13 Kirbyville (21-3A)
35 - 78.37 Canyon (5-3A)
36 - 77.36 Vernon (6-3A)
37 - 77.13 Hamshire-Fannett (21-3A)
38 - 76.69 Palestine (19-3A)
39 - 76.03 Sweetwater (7-3A)
40 - 74.93 Coldspring (22-3A)
41 - 74.92 Needville (24-3A)
42 - 74.41 Van (14-3A)
43 - 73.51 West Columbia (24-3A)
44 - 73.41 Rockdale (18-3A)
45 - 72.34 Whitesboro (9-3A)
46 - 71.62 Canton (14-3A)
47 - 71.54 Andrews (3-3A)
48 - 71.50 Sealy (24-3A)
49 - 71.23 Atlanta (16-3A)
50 - 70.82 Columbus (24-3A)
51 - 70.75 Snyder (3-3A)
52 - 70.50 Bridgeport (8-3A)
53 - 70.27 Fort Stockton (1-3A)
54 - 70.14 Kaufman (13-3A)
55 - 69.70 Wimberley (25-3A)
56 - 69.42 Decatur (8-3A)
57 - 69.10 Mabank (13-3A)
58 - 68.74 Gonzales (29-3A)
59 - 68.44 Hutto (18-3A)
60 - 68.27 Dallas Roosevelt (11-3A)
61 - 68.00 Athens (14-3A)
62 - 67.87 Monahans (1-3A)
63 - 67.50 Nevada Community (10-3A)
64 - 67.26 Rio Hondo (32-3A)
65 - 66.63 Bullard (14-3A)
66 - 66.33 Bowie (8-3A)
67 - 66.23 Midland Greenwood (3-3A)
68 - 65.87 Cameron (18-3A)
69 - 65.60 Glen Rose (12-3A)
70 - 65.29 Breckenridge (7-3A)
71 - 64.76 Brookshire Royal (24-3A)
72 - 64.34 Dallas Madison (11-3A)
73 - 64.21 Wills Point (10-3A)
74 - 64.10 Iowa Park (6-3A)
75 - 63.70 Llano (25-3A)
76 - 62.99 Palacios (29-3A)
77 - 62.70 La Grange (23-3A)
78 - 61.69 Carrollton Ranchview (11-3A)
79 - 61.28 Pittsburg (16-3A)
80 - 61.18 Quinlan Ford (10-3A)
81 - 61.02 Hondo (28-3A)
82 - 60.63 Brownfield (4-3A)
83 - 60.62 Pleasanton (27-3A)
84 - 60.11 Pilot Point (9-3A)
85 - 59.81 Wharton (24-3A)
86 - 59.10 Seminole (4-3A)
87 - 58.71 Hidalgo (32-3A)
88 - 58.69 Ferris (13-3A)
89 - 58.66 Splendora (22-3A)
90 - 58.50 Brownsboro (14-3A)
91 - 58.41 Orangefield (21-3A)
92 - 57.62 Mexia (19-3A)
93 - 56.83 Center (20-3A)
94 - 56.43 West (12-3A)
95 - 55.84 Lubbock Cooper (4-3A)
96 - 54.37 Port Isabel (32-3A)
97 - 54.35 Sweeny (24-3A)
98 - 54.25 Whitney (12-3A)
99 - 54.24 Hillsboro (12-3A)
100 - 53.71 Smithville (23-3A)
101 - 53.36 Levelland (4-3A)
102 - 53.12 Gainesville (8-3A)
103 - 52.88 Lake Worth (11-3A)
104 - 52.88 Groesbeck (19-3A)
105 - 52.60 Liberty (22-3A)
106 - 52.37 Devine (28-3A)
107 - 52.25 Princeton (9-3A)
108 - 52.07 Commerce (10-3A)
109 - 51.68 White Oak (15-3A)
110 - 50.90 Sanger (8-3A)
111 - 50.90 Fairfield (19-3A)
112 - 50.79 Lorena (17-3A)
113 - 50.77 La Vernia (26-3A)
114 - 49.77 Cleveland (22-3A)
115 - 49.69 Taylor (18-3A)
116 - 49.11 La Feria (32-3A)
117 - 48.72 CC West Oso (30-3A)
118 - 46.60 Emory Rains (10-3A)
119 - 46.32 Gatesville (17-3A)
120 - 45.49 Ingleside (30-3A)
121 - 45.43 Lytle (27-3A)
122 - 45.02 Medina Valley (27-3A)
123 - 44.54 Luling (26-3A)
124 - 44.40 Bandera (25-3A)
125 - 44.32 Hardin-Jefferson (21-3A)
126 - 43.88 Mount Vernon (16-3A)
127 - 43.45 Shepherd (22-3A)
128 - 43.16 Yoakum (29-3A)
129 - 43.13 Anthony (1-3A)
130 - 42.82 Crandall (13-3A)
131 - 41.91 Gladewater (15-3A)
132 - 40.42 Poteet (27-3A)
133 - 40.25 Stafford (24-3A)
134 - 39.97 Raymondville (31-3A)
135 - 39.79 Crystal City (28-3A)
136 - 39.68 Rusk (20-3A)
137 - 39.42 Mathis (30-3A)
138 - 38.43 Van Alstyne (9-3A)
139 - 38.30 Orange Grove (30-3A)
140 - 37.51 Mineola (15-3A)
141 - 37.36 Fabens (1-3A)
142 - 36.59 Comanche (7-3A)
143 - 36.17 Eustace (13-3A)
144 - 35.80 Borger (5-3A)
145 - 33.68 Pecos (1-3A)
146 - 33.19 Bridge City (21-3A)
147 - 32.71 Huntington (20-3A)
148 - 32.69 Dalhart (5-3A)
149 - 32.12 Kemp (13-3A)
150 - 32.10 Sinton (30-3A)
151 - 30.96 Clint (1-3A)
152 - 30.79 Pearsall (28-3A)
153 - 30.74 Lyford (31-3A)
154 - 29.85 South San Antonio West (26-3A)
155 - 29.54 FW Castleberry (11-3A)
156 - 29.49 Wichita Falls Hirschi (6-3A)
157 - 29.34 Zapata (31-3A)
158 - 29.33 Tarkington (22-3A)
159 - 28.83 Gladewater Sabine (15-3A)
160 - 27.90 Goliad (29-3A)
161 - 26.39 Progreso (32-3A)
162 - 25.16 Marion (26-3A)
163 - 24.60 Bonham (9-3A)
164 - 19.63 FW Diamond Hill-Jarvis (11-3A)
165 - 14.30 Somerset (27-3A)
166 - 13.79 Lamesa (3-3A)
167 - 12.23 Aransas Pass (30-3A)
168 - 7.92 Tornillo (1-3A)
169 - 3.13 Venus (12-3A)
170 - 2.91 Carrizo Springs (28-3A)
171 - 1.72 Falfurrias (31-3A)
172 - 0.80 Ingram Moore (25-3A)
173 - 0.00 San Diego (31-3A)


The numbers are the average relative offensive power each team has had for each game played so far this season.

Example: Celina has played five 3A opponents
beat Robinson by 13
beat Princeton by 29
beat Frisco Wakeland by 36
beat Pilot Point by 50
beat Van Alstyne by 62

You can score Celina's relative performance in each game by adding their margin of victory to each opponent's power number.

Robinson 87.33 + 13 = 100.33 pts for Celina
Princeton 52.25 + 29 = 81.25 pts for Celina
Wakeland 87.97 + 36 = 123.97 pts for Celina
Pilot Point 60.11 + 50 = 110.11 pts for Celina
Van Alstyne 38.43 + 62 = 100.43 pts for Celina

These numbers can be used to compare relative performance between games (Celina's worst relative performance was against Princeton, the best was against Wakeland).

The average score per game should be extremely close to the power ranking total for all 173 teams, which is how you can check the validity of any team's relative ranking. The average of Celina's 5 game scores is 103.22 (only 0.06 away from their power total of 103. 28).

If you're saying "so what?", try coming up with your own relative strengths for 173 teams and then make them fit exactly every game that every team has played.....

Vernon played one out of state and another 4A team, taking those out hurts rankings, this is flawed for sure.

[charlesrixey]

#51 looks just about right for snyder

why is that so controversial?