luvhoops34
09-19-2007, 10:31 AM
September 18, 2007
A tropical storm in the Gulf? Maybe Friday.
A broad area of thunderstorms just east of Florida has gained strength this afternoon, and the burst of convection is evident in this satellite photo. Long story short, this system, now dubbed Invest 93L, may very well become Tropical Storm Jerry within a day or two.
Let's take a look at today's model runs for 93L, which we must not take at face value as the computers do poorly with undeveloped systems. In any case, here they are:
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/at200793models9307q.gif
Ignoring the LBAR model -- which isn't generally reliable -- we can see the models agree upon bringing 93L into the Gulf in a day or two after it crosses Florida. Should that happen, as now appears more likely than not, the entire Gulf Coast will be at risk for a potentially powerful system.
Why? The Gulf is warm, and the system has the potential to pass over water that could prove quite conducive for strengthening. In the morning I'll do a full analysis of conditions in the Gulf, should 93L cross Florida intact. Let me just say that a tropical system over the Gulf is not a scenario anyone would wish for, and I'd expect the oil markets to rise tomorrow on this possibility.
It's impossible to say where the system might go. I would expect the models to flip-flop between Texas and Louisiana for the next couple of days because the computers don't have a good handle on whether a high-pressure system over the U.S. Southeast will weaken, and how fast an upper-level low pressure system will move. These are complex dynamics.
I'd also add that the presence of the upper-level low might counteract some of the favorable conditions in the Gulf for intensification.
For purposes of the storm's track, the models probably won't be of much use until early Thursday, when we're likely to get the first data from reconaissance airplanes put into the computers, and they have time to update their forecasts.
Until then this system bears watching, and I'll certainly be doing that.
Posted by Eric Berger at September 18, 2007 06:33 PM
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2007/09/a_tropical_stor.html
A tropical storm in the Gulf? Maybe Friday.
A broad area of thunderstorms just east of Florida has gained strength this afternoon, and the burst of convection is evident in this satellite photo. Long story short, this system, now dubbed Invest 93L, may very well become Tropical Storm Jerry within a day or two.
Let's take a look at today's model runs for 93L, which we must not take at face value as the computers do poorly with undeveloped systems. In any case, here they are:
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/at200793models9307q.gif
Ignoring the LBAR model -- which isn't generally reliable -- we can see the models agree upon bringing 93L into the Gulf in a day or two after it crosses Florida. Should that happen, as now appears more likely than not, the entire Gulf Coast will be at risk for a potentially powerful system.
Why? The Gulf is warm, and the system has the potential to pass over water that could prove quite conducive for strengthening. In the morning I'll do a full analysis of conditions in the Gulf, should 93L cross Florida intact. Let me just say that a tropical system over the Gulf is not a scenario anyone would wish for, and I'd expect the oil markets to rise tomorrow on this possibility.
It's impossible to say where the system might go. I would expect the models to flip-flop between Texas and Louisiana for the next couple of days because the computers don't have a good handle on whether a high-pressure system over the U.S. Southeast will weaken, and how fast an upper-level low pressure system will move. These are complex dynamics.
I'd also add that the presence of the upper-level low might counteract some of the favorable conditions in the Gulf for intensification.
For purposes of the storm's track, the models probably won't be of much use until early Thursday, when we're likely to get the first data from reconaissance airplanes put into the computers, and they have time to update their forecasts.
Until then this system bears watching, and I'll certainly be doing that.
Posted by Eric Berger at September 18, 2007 06:33 PM
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2007/09/a_tropical_stor.html