A Celtics Fan's Perspective on the Draft Lottery...before and after

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This is Bill Simmons' article yesterday BEFORE the Celtics got the 5th overall pick in the draft. I'll post his AFTER article once it goes up on espn.com

Not every team deserves Oden or Durant
By Bill Simmons
Page 2

On Monday morning, I flew cross-country to watch the NBA draft lottery back home in Boston. Why? Because I still blame myself for screwing up the Duncan lottery. Instead of watching such a pivotal, franchise-defining moment with my father -- the guy who carried me into the Boston Garden since I was 4 years old -- I blew him off to spend a weekend on Cape Cod with a blonde sorta-girlfriend who couldn't understand why the NBA lottery didn't just work like Megabucks.

Bad move. Baaaaaaaaaad move.

After the Celtics failed to get Duncan, I dumped the blonde a few weeks later, mostly because I never forgave myself for watching the lottery with her. (Don't worry, we wouldn't have lasted -- sorta-girlfriends never do.) Ten mostly depressing seasons later, with Duncan headed for a fourth ring and the long-suffering Celtics hitting another fork-in-the-road moment, I couldn't take any chances. I had to come home. I had to watch the NBA lottery with my dad. If only for karmic purposes.

That got me thinking ...

If you approached tonight's lottery from a karmic standpoint, which two teams most deserve a top-two pick? Are the 2007 Celtics even worthy of two potential franchise superstars like Kevin Durant or Greg Oden? To figure this out, I created a "Which Lottery Team Built Up the Most Positive Karma?" scoring system, creating eight categories and evaluating each lottery team accordingly. Here's a description of the categories, with points ranging from 0-10.

1. Bad Luck -- How much of a role did injuries and bad breaks play during the 2006-07 season for each team's lottery appearance? Ten points for the most bad luck.

2. Front Office Competency -- How much of a factor did organizational incompetency play in each team's lottery appearance? Ten points for the most competent front office.

3. Loyalty/History -- How loyal is each team's fan base and how rich is its history? Ten points for richest loyalty/History.

4. Level of Devastation -- If it doesn't get Oden or Durant, how catastrophic will the damage be for each team's fan base and organization? Ten points for most catastrophic.

5. Overdue Good Karma -- Considering everything good and bad that's happened to each lottery team for the past generation (15 years), how overdue is each team for a break? Ten points for most overdue.

6. Tanking Karma -- How much of a role did tanking play for the Ping-Pong positioning of each team? Ten points for the least tanking.

7. Rigging Potential -- We'd never insinuate that the NBA could ever rig the lottery because, obviously, that would be a felony. But if the league WAS to rig the lottery, which lottery teams would be the most appealing destinations for Oden and Durant (factoring in television ratings, merchandising, history, caliber of roster, franchise security and general media buzz). Ten points for the most rigging potential.

8. Entertainment Value -- For the average fan, what's a best-case scenario for the top-two lottery winners in terms of "Which teams would become fun to watch right away", "What would make the best sports story" and "Would the results cause rioting in New York?" Ten points for the most entertainment value.

Which two lottery teams deserve Oden and Durant? Let's count them down in reverse order from lowest points to highest points:

14. CLIPPERS
(No. 14 in the Ping-Pong order)

Bad Luck -- 3 (out of 10)
Front Office Competency -- 4
Loyalty/History -- 2
Level of Devastation -- 0
Overdue Good Karma -- 3
Tanking Karma -- 10
Rigging Potential -- 3
Entertainment Value -- 10

Final karma score: 35

Comments: Which event is less likely -- the Clippers' jumping into the top two with less than a .05 percent chance, or my renewing my season tickets after they finished 40-42 and bumped prices across the board by 25 percent?

(The answer: It's a tie. Neither one is happening.)

13. HORNETS
(No. 13 in the Ping-Pong order)

Bad Luck -- 7
Front Office Competency -- 5
Loyalty/History -- 3
Level of Devastation -- 0
Overdue Good Karma -- 3
Tanking Karma -- 10
Rigging Potential -- 0
Entertainment Value -- 7

Final karma score: 35

Comments: Nabbing Oden/Durant would give New Orleans an emotional lift along the lines of Drew Brees and the Saints a few months ago. Unfortunately, their remote Ping-Pong percentages work against them from a "rigging potential" standpoint. Imagine if the Hornets catapulted into the top two during the summer before they move back to New Orleans and host the All-Star Game? And you thought Ewing landing on the Knicks was sketchy. Also, they can't get more than three points for "overdue good karma" -- not even after Katrina -- because they lucked out so remarkably in 1999 (hopping from No 13 to No. 2 and getting Baron Davis) and 2005 (when Chris Paul improbably dropped to them at No. 4). Sorry.

12. HAWKS
(No. 11 in the Ping-Pong order, via the Pacers)

Bad Luck -- 3
Front Office Competency -- 1
Loyalty/History -- 8
Level of Devastation -- 8
Overdue Good Karma -- 3
Tanking Karma -- 8
Rigging Potential -- 2
Entertainment Value -- 3

Final karma score: 36

Comments: The Pacers keep the pick if it's top-three; 11 or lower and it goes to Atlanta. With all due respect to the Basketball Jesus, few teams made more shaky decisions over a three-year span: teaming up Artest and Jackson; not selling high on Artest; re-signing Tinsley for big bucks; sacrificing a potential lottery pick for Al Harrington in a loaded draft; and especially, making that incomprehensible Golden State trade in which they gave up the best two guys in the deal. They deserve to lose this pick.

(Hold on, give me a second to duck the lightning bolt.)

(Hold on ... )

(Heeeeeeeeeeee-yah!)

(That was close. OK, back to the column.)

11. KINGS
(No. 10 in the Ping-Pong order)

Bad Luck -- 2
Front Office Competency -- 4
Loyalty/History -- 8
Level of Devastation -- 3
Overdue Good Karma -- 3
Tanking Karma -- 8
Rigging Potential -- 6
Entertainment Value -- 2

Final karma score: 36

Comments: They're in no man's land at No. 10 because of their curious choice to stand pat while the 2007 team imploded (an implosion that was 3-4 years coming). Strangely, the Maloofs seem more interested these days in promoting the Palms, giving feature interviews, making commercials and appearing in reality shows. Hey, fellas? Quit the Dean Martin routine for a few months and start worrying about the Kings. You're creeping us out. Also, I'd move to sunglasses in public at all times. Just a thought.

(Note: I gave the Kings a "6" for rigging potential just in case the league wants to grease the skids for a Vegas move by giving them a young superstar to sell in Sin City. You never know.)

10. BULLS
(No. 9 in the Ping-Pong order, via the Knicks)

Bad Luck -- 0
Front Office Competency -- 10
Loyalty/History -- 8
Level of Devastation -- 0
Overdue Good Karma -- 0
Tanking Karma -- 10
Rigging Potential -- 0
Entertainment Value -- 10

Final karma score: 38

Comments: If this spot comes up and Chicago's logo isn't in the No. 10 envelope, it immediately becomes the most dramatic lottery moment of all-time. Every Knicks fan would cease breathing for the rest of the lottery. That's no exaggeration. Whether they'd ever start breathing again remains to be seen. Still, does it seem fair that a top-eight playoff team with a great future -- the same franchise that launched two rebuilding plans in four years and made nine top-seven picks in seven years -- could stumble into a franchise player by fleecing the most incompetent GM in recent NBA history? I say no.

(Note: I had to give the Bulls a "0" for rigging potential simply because there could be rioting in Manhattan if Isiah caused the Knicks to lose either Oden or Durant. It would be like the Ewing lottery, only the exact opposite. You might even see Knicks fans storming MSG holding fire torches with their shirts tied around their heads. I'm assuming the league wants to avoid this scenario.)

9. BOBCATS
(No. 8 in the Ping-Pong order)

Bad Luck -- 6
Front Office Competency -- 5
Loyalty/History -- 0
Level of Devastation -- 3
Overdue Good Karma -- 1
Tanking Karma -- 10
Rigging Potential -- 5
Entertainment Value -- 8

Final karma score: 38

Comments: Given that the NBA misfired so badly with Charlotte as an expansion city, watching the Bobcats land Oden or Durant would be more frustrating than watching Zach Braff make out with Scarlett Johansson. On the other hand, is there a goofier nucleus than Ray Felton, Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor, Sean May, Walter Hermann, Matt Carroll, Adam Morrison and Durant/Oden? I'm giving them an "8" for entertainment value just in case it happens. Can't help myself. It's like somebody threw together a fantasy team and bought them uniforms, a coach and a crowd.

[Phil C]

NBA needs to do like the other leagues to on their draft. Get with the times NBA!

[Adidas410s]

8. TIMBERWOLVES
(No. 7 in the Ping-Pong order)

Bad Luck -- 2
Front Office Competency -- 0
Loyalty/History -- 5
Level of Devastation -- 6
Overdue Good Karma -- 10
Tanking Karma -- 1
Rigging Potential -- 8
Entertainment Value -- 8

Final karma score: 40

Comments: Nobody deserves a stroke of lottery fortune less than Glen Taylor and Kevin McHale, the NBA's version of Bush/Rumsfield for 8-10 years. Of course, nobody deserves a stroke of lottery fortune more than KG, one of the few superstars with too much pride to ever bail on a sinking ship. Either that, or they're blackmailing him with a sex tape so he'll stay. But wouldn't it be nice to see KG play the David Robinson to Oden's Tim Duncan for the next 5-6 years? Hence, 10 points for "overdue good karma."

(Note: If the T-Wolves really wanted good karma, they'd put KG out of his freaking misery and trade him to Chicago or Phoenix. This makes me mad. Let's just move on.)

7. BLAZERS
(No. 6 in the Ping-Pong order)

Bad Luck -- 4
Front Office Competency -- 4
Loyalty/History -- 7
Level of Devastation -- 4
Overdue Good Karma -- 4
Tanking Karma -- 8
Rigging Potential -- 5
Entertainment Value -- 7

Final karma score: 43

Comments: They've been all over the board this decade: They were the Oh-So-Close Blazers, then the Jail Blazers, then they were so desperate to rebuild around character guys that they passed up Chris Paul or Deron Williams for Martell Webster, then they built a likable young core around Zach Randolph and Darius Miles, which is like watching one of your buddies announce that he's quitting booze and cigarettes, switching to a Vegan diet and training for triathalons ... but he's going to keep snorting heroin. You figure it out. I certainly can't. But considering the Blazers were consistently competitive from 1976 to 2001, can you really argue that their fans have "suffered" that badly because they limped through a few bad seasons with some bad guys? Probably not.

(Note: Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I miss the Jail Blazers. When's the next time we'll see a team feature a registered sex offender who wasn't even one of the top three craziest guys on the team? They made the 2006 Bengals look like a bunch of prep school kids egging houses on Halloween.)

6. SUNS (via the Hawks)
(No. 4 in the Ping-Pong order)

Bad Luck -- 3
Front Office Competency -- 0
Loyalty/History -- 1
Level of Devastation -- 9
Overdue Good Karma -- 10
Tanking Karma -- 3
Rigging Potential -- 8
Entertainment Value -- 10

Final karma score: 44

Comments: I find it immensely entertaining that this pick goes to Phoenix unless Atlanta jumps into the top three. Imagine a college stud like Corey Brewer, Mike Conley Jr. or Joakim Noah coming off Phoenix's bench next season? Yikes.

Can Atlanta generate enough karma to pull off a top-two pick? Ideally, the NBA wants a quality young Eastern team to land Durant or Oden (for conference balance and TV purposes), and they'd definitely love to see basketball take off in Atlanta after centuries of apathy (hence, the nine points for rigging potential). Still, the Hawks cheated the lottery system more than anyone over the past few years, making consistently dumb decisions and embarrassing the league with poor attendance and legal struggles. If that's not enough, they tanked as egregiously as anybody but the Bucks down the stretch. They deserve to lose this pick. It's only fitting. Although it would also be fitting if they landed No. 2 and picked Mike Conley Jr. over Durant by explaining, "Look, we really needed a point guard, you guys have been killing us for this for years!"

(Follow-up note from my old intern Kevin Cott, a diehard Hawks fan: "What's really scary is that Billy Knight is the one GM capable of doing something as insane as taking Yi Jianlian out of f-ing nowhere -- he's probably making Yi's translator a promise as we speak." And these guys deserve a top-three pick? Even their own fans are terrified of them!)

5. BUCKS
(No. 3 in the Ping-Pong order)

Bad Luck -- 9
Front Office Competency -- 5
Loyalty/History -- 4
Level of Devastation -- 8
Overdue Good Karma -- 2
Tanking Karma -- 0
Rigging Potential -- 7
Entertainment Value -- 10

Final karma score: 45

Comments: Even though they fit the "talented young Eastern team" criteria, the Bucks disgraced themselves by dubiously shelving Bogut and Villanueva, then yanking the crunch-time minutes of their best players around for a series of suspect defeats. Eventually, everyone had to follow suit. They were like the Patient X of the tanking epidemic. If that's not enough, they won the Bogut lottery two years ago -- so much for being overdue for a big break. Besides, when's the last time you met a long-suffering Bucks fan? Didn't Kareem flee this city once upon a time? Doesn't everyone in Wisconsin care about the Packers, the University of Wisconsin, Marquette and the Brewers in that order?

(Note: I can't support the Bucks' candidacy for a top-two pick. Not this year. And not even Brian Logan could change my mind.)

4. GRIZZLIES
(No. 1 in the Ping-Pong order)

Bad Luck -- 7
Front Office Competency -- 8
Loyalty/History -- 0
Level of Devastation -- 9
Overdue Good Karma -- 9
Tanking Karma -- 4
Rigging Potential -- 0
Entertainment Value -- 8

Final karma score: 45

Comments: Can you think of a less appealing scenario than Oden or Durant landing in Memphis when (A) the Grizzlies are trying to sell the team, (B) nobody believes it's a viable NBA market, and (C) they're in the Western Conference? If the Grizzlies land a top-two pick, we'll know for sure that the draft lottery can't be rigged.

3. SIXERS
(No. 12 in the Ping-Pong order)

Bad Luck -- 1
Front Office Competency -- 0
Loyalty/History -- 7
Level of Devastation -- 3
Overdue Good Karma -- 7
Tanking Karma -- 10
Rigging Potential -- 10
Entertainment Value -- 10

Final karma score: 48

Comments: The only lottery team that kept playing hard, winning games and ignoring the Ping-Pong ball ramifications right through Game No. 82. If you're a Sixers fan, you couldn't help but feel proud of your guys for gritting out a promising finish, right, even as they were foolishly squandering any reasonable chance at Oden or Durant. But hey ... maybe the groundswell of good karma can propel them into the top three! If Philly gets lucky tonight, I just hope Billy King commemorates the occasion by immediately announcing a six-year, $50 million contract extension for Shavlik Randolph.

[Adidas410s]

2. CELTICS
(No. 2 in the Ping-Pong order)

Bad Luck -- 7
Front Office Competency -- 2
Loyalty/History -- 10
Level of Devastation -- 10
Overdue Good Karma -- 10
Tanking Karma -- 0
Rigging Potential -- 10
Entertainment Value -- 10

Final karma score: 59

Comments: You're sitting there thinking, "that bastard rigged the grades so the Celtics would profit from his stupid scoring system." Not true. Name me a team that suffered more trauma since the mid-'80s: Lenny Bias and Reggie Lewis, the demolition of the Boston Garden, the M.L. Carr era, the Duncan lottery, the Pitino era, the Paul Pierce stabbing, the Vin Baker trade, Red Auerbach's death, Doc Rivers' second life. ... After 16 titles in 30 years, it's been a preposterously brutal stretch of bad luck.

Now ...

I want you to zoom through the 14 lottery teams again. With the possible exception of Seattle (for reasons we're about to explain), find me a group of fans who'd be more devastated tonight if they didn't land No. 1 or No. 2. Name me a better home for Oden or Durant from the NBA's standpoint. Name me a young team that makes a leap more quickly than the Celtics with a Pierce-Jefferson-Oden/Durant nucleus. Compared to the other perennial screw-ups and basketball coldbeds on this list, how could you argue against the Celtics' karmic rights for a top-two pick? We're due, aren't we? Please tell me we're due. For the love of God, TELL ME WE'RE DUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1. SONICS
(No. 5 in the Ping-Pong order)

Bad Luck -- 6
Front Office Competency -- 4
Loyalty/History -- 8
Level of Devastation -- 10
Overdue Good Karma -- 10
Tanking Karma -- 5
Rigging Potential -- 7
Entertainment Value -- 10

Final karma score: 60

Comments: Three points of contention here ...

1. Their fans definitely slacked the past two years, but only because their billionaire owner kept threatening to move if they didn't help him pay for a new arena. Would you vote for a tax increase to help out someone who owns every Starbucks on the planet? I didn't think so. Anyway, I gave them eight points for loyalty/history -- that's been a great NBA city and one of the better playoff crowds I can remember.

2. Landing Oden or Durant would save pro basketball in Seattle -- after all, how could they move under those circumstances -- but we're not sure if Team Stern believes this would be a good thing or a bad thing, so I'm giving them seven points for "rigging potential" as a compromise grade. No franchise has more riding on those Ping-Pong balls tonight. If they don't get a top-two pick, they're almost definitely gone.

3. A run-and-gun team of bombers built around Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis and Durant would be exceedingly entertaining to watch, right? The mere thought of those three guys trading 25-footers earns them 10 points for "entertainment value."

So those are my top-three karmic picks. The Sixers deserve a break because they kept playing hard down the stretch, Ping-Pong balls be damned. The Celtics deserve a break after their fans suffered through two decades of bad luck and poor planning. And Seattle deserves a break because it's a good basketball city that's being held hostage by some latte-drinking billionaire dipwad who sold the team to the ultra-conservative Oklahoma hick with no soul. Check out the final list along with my mock picks for each team. Yeah, that's right ... it's a mock draft of a mock karmic lottery! Have some of that, Chad Ford!

Anyway ...

14. Clippers -- Al Thornton
13. Hornets -- Spencer Hawes
12. Hawks (via Pacers) -- Acie Law IV
11. Kings -- Roy Hibbert
10. Bulls (via Knicks) -- Joakim Noah
9. Bobcats -- Mike Conley Jr
8. Timberwolves -- Julian Wright
7. Blazers -- Jeff Green
6. Suns (via Hawks) -- Corey Brewer
5. Bucks -- Brandan Wright
4. Grizzlies -- Yi Jianlian
3. Sixers -- Al Horford
2. Celtics -- Kevin Durant
1. Sonics -- Greg Oden

And you know what? I'm fine with that list. Sign me up.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to throw up on my dad.

[Phil C]

I don't know about bad luck but the prior year before the Spurs got Duncan they had a playoff ability team but not one that could win all the way. The year they got Duncan though David Robinson the franchise player got hurt early in the year and was out for nearly all of the year. Other starters got hurt and were lost or had nagging injuries all year. Thus a playoff team lost most of its' games and then was put in position to qualify for the No. 1 draft. The Spurs won it and chose Tim Duncan. The next year the Spurs had a good year with a healthy Robinson and other players and in 1999 it was NBA Championship Time.

And the rest is history.

[Adidas410s]

Here's the aftermath

Welcome to the next decade of discontent
By Bill Simmons
Page 2

In "Crimes and Misdemeanors," Alan Alda's character defines comedy as equaling "tragedy plus time." So eventually, I'll find the following story funny. Just not right now. But here's the story …

Tuesday afternoon, my father and I were watching ESPN's "2007 NBA Draft Lottery" special. The show started at 1:30 p.m. and ran for 90 minutes, causing Dad to sarcastically wonder, "Is anyone else watching this show right now?" even though he ended up watching the whole thing. He didn't seem to grasp the irony. Midway through the show, ESPN ran a feature on Chinese prospect Yi Jianlian, a 7-foot forward who moves reasonably well for a big man. Desperate for Yi tape that didn't have the grainy quality of the Zapruder film, ESPN showed footage from a recent workout in which Yi completed a series of drills against a trainer who couldn't have been taller than 5-foot-9. At one point, Yi posted up the tiny trainer, then whirled around, zoomed by the poor guy and dunked with his left hand.

"Whoa, he went right by that guy," Dad joked.

This made us giggle. After that, every time Yi made a jumper or beat an imaginary defender off the dribble, we reacted like it was the Slam Dunk Contest.

Ooooooooooooh!

Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Owwwwwwwwwwwwwwww!

After three minutes of workout highlights, Dad decided Yi reminded him of Brad Lohaus. It wasn't a compliment. Then, Chad Ford appeared via satellite and confessed that he was completely sold on Yi, maintaining that Yi's personality was different than overwhelmed foreign players from years past, even adding, "He lives in L.A. and attends premieres and parties, he's already living the life of an NBA star." Let's just say that we weren't too swayed. That was followed by the obligatory Nikoloz Tskitishvili reference -- after all, he's the worst-case scenario for any foreign pick, right? -- and some old-school Tskitishvili highlights while Chad talked. Finally, they threw it back to the studio where ESPN's experts, including former Nuggets GM Kiki Vandeweghe, who drafted Tschkivili over Amare Stoudemire four years ago (a decision that earned him a spot on this particular show), broke down Yi's game.

It was a startling sequence. Ever decide before a Vegas trip that you're bringing a certain amount of cash (let's say $750) and maxing out your daily ATM limit ($500) no more than twice? It's called a "preemptive worst-case scenario." In other words, you determine beforehand that you're allowing yourself to lose only $1,750 and not a nickel more. For the rest of the weekend, that number hangs over everything. You've given yourself a salary cap for failure. Well, by the time they reached commercial, Dad and I had determined our preemptive worst-case scenario for the 2007 lottery: The Celtics dropping to No. 5, followed by Danny Ainge talking himself into Yi Jianlian.

Fast-forward to 10:30 Tuesday night: I'm sitting at the Four's with my buddies JackO and J-Bug. We had just arrived from Sully's Tap next door, which lived up to its reputation as the single most depressing bar in Boston. In fact, that's why we went there, because I asked Bug right after the lottery, "Take me to the most depressing bar in Boston" and he quickly responded, "Sullivan's Tap!" That's not a diss on Sully's -- we love that place, it's everything a dive bar should be. But you'd never go there for the atmosphere. After watching the Celtics logo get pulled out of the No. 5 envelope, Sully's Tap felt like the perfect destination for a rebound beer.

In retrospect, any Boston bar would have worked because all of them were morbidly depressing. For all intent and purpose, professional basketball had just been murdered in the city of Boston. Ever since Larry Legend's retirement, the Celtics had suffered one blow after another -- Reggie Lewis, Dave Gavitt, the Garden, M.L., Duncan, Pitino -- and just when things were finally turning around, our overmatched front office turned four first-rounders into two veteran bench players (one who played for the team for four months), then compounded the mistake by trading for a recovering alcoholic making max money. Ainge took over and blew up everything, fired the coach who took us to the 2002 Eastern Conference finals and embarked on a series of individually semi-defensible moves that had no correlation to one another. Within four years, we had the league's youngest roster, fans were openly rooting for losses (for lottery purposes) and the team was shamefully tanking down the stretch. Looking back, it was pathetic. We disgraced the game of basketball for a 38.7 percent chance at Oden or Durant. Not even 2-in-5 odds.

Things had fallen so far that those odds assumed a level of hope that exceeded the actual odds. Maybe because of the recent success of the Red Sox and Patriots, that perpetual optimism bled over. We had Pierce, we had Jefferson, we had a 38.7 percent chance at a franchise player. We were still alive, dammit! The Celtics were still alive!

Well, until 8:53 p.m. rolled around last night.

You can't even fathom the pain. Everyone believes Celtics fans get a free pass with this stuff because we won 16 titles in 30 years. Actually, it's the opposite. Long-suffering fans of perennial losers don't know what they're missing. After all, how would they know? You can't miss steak if you've never eaten steak, right? But if you're fortunate enough to follow a perennially successful franchise, then that same franchise starts decomposing right in front of you ... what then? The Celtics used to mean something; now they don't. Anyone who remembers the good old days -- when the Garden was rocking, when we were always in the hunt, when you honestly believed that we'd win every close game because someone was looking out for us, when everyone else feared us -- can't come to grips with what's happened. We're like one of those child actors who peaked at 15, made a ton of money, had everyone kissing their ass for a few years and then everything went to crap.

Well, you know what happens to famous child actors who become irrelevant? They go crazy. They go off the deep end. They chain-smoke, they do drugs, they get arrested, they look like hell, they disgrace themselves on "The Surreal Life" or "Celebrity Fit Club" because they're so desperate to be famous again. And these things happen because they're still trapped in the past and waking up every day wondering, "What the hell happened? I used to be living the high life!" Basically, every Celtics fan older than the age of 25 has turned into Macaulay Culkin. And the ones younger than 25 can't even remember what they're supposed to be missing.

So when the Celtics got crushed last night, you could feel it everywhere you went. You could feel the pain. You could. Even a normally gregarious sports bar called The Four's felt like it had been rented out for an Irish wake. When JackO, the Bug and I grabbed three seats at the bar, I was still in complete shock. I looked like Brady Quinn after Ted Ginn Jr. went No. 9 in the draft, crossed with Tim Duncan after Derek Fisher made the miracle shot in the 2004 playoffs, crossed with Andy Van Slyke after the Francisco Cabrera single, crossed with Mark Cuban during Game 6 of the Warriors-Mavs series. I couldn't get past what happened -- how everything was going so well, how all the envelopes were coming up in order, and then that improbable moment when the Bucks popped up at No. 6, followed by the traumatic realization that …

A. Three teams had jumped Milwaukee into the top three.
B. The Celtics were in the next envelope.
C. Four straight months of rooting against my own team had gone for naught.

I couldn't get past seeing that Bucks logo, or the unexpected crotch punch of Brandon Roy (who could have been ours last summer if we swapped picks with Minnesota over making the moronic Telfair trade) cheerfully accepting the No. 1 pick on Portland's behalf, or even my 59-year-old father slumped against the side of the sofa like a gunshot victim. It was too cruel, all of it, the whole thing. I wasn't handling it well. For the past hour, my friends were trying to cheer me up by kidding that we could still get the Chinese Guy at No. 5. It became a running joke of sorts. I even cracked a half-smile at one point.

Which brings us to the aforementioned Alan Alda moment …

Patrick the Bartender (one of the greats) stopped by for some Ping-Pong ball commiseration and offered the obligatory "Christ, what do we do now?" question. It lingered in the air like a stale fart. None of us knew what to say. Finally, the Bug lightened the mood by responding, "Whaddya think about rolling the dice with the Chinese guy at 5?"

And Patrick the Bartender responded in all seriousness, "If he's still there."

If he's still there.

In the span of two hours, I'd gone from dreaming about Greg Oden or Kevin Durant saving the Celtics to Patrick the Bartender earnestly wondering whether the Chinese Brad Lohaus would be available at No. 5. If he's still there. Eventually, those four words will be funny. Just not right now. Comedy equals tragedy plus time.



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[Adidas410s]

The thing that really kills me? I thought we were going to win. I really did. I was feeling it.

Yesterday in downtown Boston, the sun was shining and the sky seemed especially blue. Dad and I walked through the park in Boston Common on our way to lunch and I remember saying, "What a nice day, something good is going to happen." It felt like having a baby all over again -- I just wanted to get it over with, and whatever happened, I knew my life would never be the same. This was different than a Super Bowl or a deciding World Series game because the next 15 years of the franchise hung in the balance; as strange as this sounds, the stakes were higher. So I found myself looking for signs all day. For instance, when our bill for lunch came, I left a $17 tip, then realized after the fact, "Hey, 17, that's a good sign, we're going for our 17th title!" I'm not saying this was rational. Just trying to explain my mood at the time.

We headed back to Dad's house, watched the lottery show and decided on a pay-per-view movie to kill two hours (and some nervous energy). We were leaning toward "The Good Shepherd" until we realized it was 168 minutes. Dad didn't want to see "Bobby." Both of us agreed that "Children of Men" was too depressing. No, we needed an action movie. We needed to see things blow up. I pushed hard for "Déjà Vu" because you can always count on Denzel, even in the worst possible movie. He's like KG that way. Dad agreed. We bought the movie.

It took us a solid hour to realize our mistake: Not that we rented a bad movie, but that we rented a movie named "Déjà Vu" 10 years after the Duncan lottery. I don't know if this was the dumbest suggestion I've ever made in my life, but it's definitely in the top five. I inadvertently filmed my own Bad Idea Jeans commercial. After playing the karma card perfectly all week, I self-destructed at the worst possible time.

A few hours later, we were renting "Déjà Vu" all over again ... only this time, it was for the next 10-12 years. See, out of any professional league, luck matters most in the NBA. You need to get lucky with Ping-Pong balls. You need to get lucky with draft picks. You need to get lucky with your GM and your coach. You need to make lucky trades that work out. The Spurs were lucky when they landed Duncan. The Bulls were lucky when the Blazers took Bowie. The Lakers were lucky that Shaq wanted out of Orlando and Kareem wanted out of Milwaukee. Miami was lucky that Wade fell to 5. Washington was lucky that they saved cap space for a summer in which Arenas became a free agent. Phoenix was lucky that Dallas cut ties with Nash. Luck, luck, luck. You can make your own luck to some degree, but still, you need to be lucky.

Ever since the summer of '86, for nearly 21 years and counting, the Celtics have been wildly, comically, irrationally unlucky. That's an exceptionally long time. Maybe we didn't fully realize the ramifications of losing a potential franchise player in '97, but we certainly realize them now. We're back to Square 1. We're sentenced to another decade of quick-fix plans, risky trades and dumb free agent signings. We're looking at another decade of excuses, spin control and hyperbole. We're headed for another decade in which the Sox and Pats are Michael, and Sonny and the Celtics are Fredo. It's basketball déjà vu.

Maybe they can snap out of it. Maybe. Still, I can't shake the image of my 59-year-old father slumped against the sofa as Brandon Roy was happily shaking hands with everyone in Secaucus. The last time we won an NBA title, my dad was one year older than I am right now. Time flies when you're a sports fan. Last night, Dad looked as wistful as Karl Malone during the 2004 Finals when the Lakers were falling apart. See, you only have so many chances in life. The older you get, the more you appreciate those chances.

"Hey, at least we have the Sox and Pats," I told him.

Dad nodded glumly. We waited for him to say something profound. We waited for him to put the night in perspective. After all, that's what older people do. They inject wisdom at the perfect time, right?

"That sucked," he finally mumbled. "That really, really sucked."

And then some.

Bill Simmons is a columnist for Page 2 and ESPN The Magazine. His book "Now I Can Die In Peace" is available in paperback.

[maestro]

boston has spent a long time trying to draft the next " big thing" .

IMO they've gone too young each time...


high schooler from houston area....unproven aau guy.

high schooler from beaumont.....tall but a sloth....

then, pitino, whom i respect as a coach...not a G.M. goes crazy and drafts two guards in the same round that are idnetical in skills..

one was Detriot's point guard now......billups...cannot remember the other one....

then those guys are traded for more " high risk" players...

then they go get telfair......

IMO this fits your column under MISMANAGEMENT BY FRONT OFFICE.

[JR2004]

Read this at work the past couple of days. I like Simmons, but seeing him and millions of other fans of the leprechaun feeling completely and utterly destroyed right now puts a smile on my face. If ever there was a completely worthless franchise and fanbase that deserved what happened in 97 and again in 2007 this would be franchise and fanbase for it to deservedly happen to.

Christmas came in May this year and there's millions of other Lakers fans that feel the exact same way about this since it's Boston. I guess no matter how bad things get for my guys, they'll never drop as far as the Celtics and I'm glad about that! :)