Adidas410s
05-23-2007, 09:05 AM
This is Bill Simmons' article yesterday BEFORE the Celtics got the 5th overall pick in the draft. I'll post his AFTER article once it goes up on espn.com
Not every team deserves Oden or Durant
By Bill Simmons
Page 2
On Monday morning, I flew cross-country to watch the NBA draft lottery back home in Boston. Why? Because I still blame myself for screwing up the Duncan lottery. Instead of watching such a pivotal, franchise-defining moment with my father -- the guy who carried me into the Boston Garden since I was 4 years old -- I blew him off to spend a weekend on Cape Cod with a blonde sorta-girlfriend who couldn't understand why the NBA lottery didn't just work like Megabucks.
Bad move. Baaaaaaaaaad move.
After the Celtics failed to get Duncan, I dumped the blonde a few weeks later, mostly because I never forgave myself for watching the lottery with her. (Don't worry, we wouldn't have lasted -- sorta-girlfriends never do.) Ten mostly depressing seasons later, with Duncan headed for a fourth ring and the long-suffering Celtics hitting another fork-in-the-road moment, I couldn't take any chances. I had to come home. I had to watch the NBA lottery with my dad. If only for karmic purposes.
That got me thinking ...
If you approached tonight's lottery from a karmic standpoint, which two teams most deserve a top-two pick? Are the 2007 Celtics even worthy of two potential franchise superstars like Kevin Durant or Greg Oden? To figure this out, I created a "Which Lottery Team Built Up the Most Positive Karma?" scoring system, creating eight categories and evaluating each lottery team accordingly. Here's a description of the categories, with points ranging from 0-10.
1. Bad Luck -- How much of a role did injuries and bad breaks play during the 2006-07 season for each team's lottery appearance? Ten points for the most bad luck.
2. Front Office Competency -- How much of a factor did organizational incompetency play in each team's lottery appearance? Ten points for the most competent front office.
3. Loyalty/History -- How loyal is each team's fan base and how rich is its history? Ten points for richest loyalty/History.
4. Level of Devastation -- If it doesn't get Oden or Durant, how catastrophic will the damage be for each team's fan base and organization? Ten points for most catastrophic.
5. Overdue Good Karma -- Considering everything good and bad that's happened to each lottery team for the past generation (15 years), how overdue is each team for a break? Ten points for most overdue.
6. Tanking Karma -- How much of a role did tanking play for the Ping-Pong positioning of each team? Ten points for the least tanking.
7. Rigging Potential -- We'd never insinuate that the NBA could ever rig the lottery because, obviously, that would be a felony. But if the league WAS to rig the lottery, which lottery teams would be the most appealing destinations for Oden and Durant (factoring in television ratings, merchandising, history, caliber of roster, franchise security and general media buzz). Ten points for the most rigging potential.
8. Entertainment Value -- For the average fan, what's a best-case scenario for the top-two lottery winners in terms of "Which teams would become fun to watch right away", "What would make the best sports story" and "Would the results cause rioting in New York?" Ten points for the most entertainment value.
Which two lottery teams deserve Oden and Durant? Let's count them down in reverse order from lowest points to highest points:
14. CLIPPERS
(No. 14 in the Ping-Pong order)
Bad Luck -- 3 (out of 10)
Front Office Competency -- 4
Loyalty/History -- 2
Level of Devastation -- 0
Overdue Good Karma -- 3
Tanking Karma -- 10
Rigging Potential -- 3
Entertainment Value -- 10
Final karma score: 35
Comments: Which event is less likely -- the Clippers' jumping into the top two with less than a .05 percent chance, or my renewing my season tickets after they finished 40-42 and bumped prices across the board by 25 percent?
(The answer: It's a tie. Neither one is happening.)
13. HORNETS
(No. 13 in the Ping-Pong order)
Bad Luck -- 7
Front Office Competency -- 5
Loyalty/History -- 3
Level of Devastation -- 0
Overdue Good Karma -- 3
Tanking Karma -- 10
Rigging Potential -- 0
Entertainment Value -- 7
Final karma score: 35
Comments: Nabbing Oden/Durant would give New Orleans an emotional lift along the lines of Drew Brees and the Saints a few months ago. Unfortunately, their remote Ping-Pong percentages work against them from a "rigging potential" standpoint. Imagine if the Hornets catapulted into the top two during the summer before they move back to New Orleans and host the All-Star Game? And you thought Ewing landing on the Knicks was sketchy. Also, they can't get more than three points for "overdue good karma" -- not even after Katrina -- because they lucked out so remarkably in 1999 (hopping from No 13 to No. 2 and getting Baron Davis) and 2005 (when Chris Paul improbably dropped to them at No. 4). Sorry.
12. HAWKS
(No. 11 in the Ping-Pong order, via the Pacers)
Bad Luck -- 3
Front Office Competency -- 1
Loyalty/History -- 8
Level of Devastation -- 8
Overdue Good Karma -- 3
Tanking Karma -- 8
Rigging Potential -- 2
Entertainment Value -- 3
Final karma score: 36
Comments: The Pacers keep the pick if it's top-three; 11 or lower and it goes to Atlanta. With all due respect to the Basketball Jesus, few teams made more shaky decisions over a three-year span: teaming up Artest and Jackson; not selling high on Artest; re-signing Tinsley for big bucks; sacrificing a potential lottery pick for Al Harrington in a loaded draft; and especially, making that incomprehensible Golden State trade in which they gave up the best two guys in the deal. They deserve to lose this pick.
(Hold on, give me a second to duck the lightning bolt.)
(Hold on ... )
(Heeeeeeeeeeee-yah!)
(That was close. OK, back to the column.)
11. KINGS
(No. 10 in the Ping-Pong order)
Bad Luck -- 2
Front Office Competency -- 4
Loyalty/History -- 8
Level of Devastation -- 3
Overdue Good Karma -- 3
Tanking Karma -- 8
Rigging Potential -- 6
Entertainment Value -- 2
Final karma score: 36
Comments: They're in no man's land at No. 10 because of their curious choice to stand pat while the 2007 team imploded (an implosion that was 3-4 years coming). Strangely, the Maloofs seem more interested these days in promoting the Palms, giving feature interviews, making commercials and appearing in reality shows. Hey, fellas? Quit the Dean Martin routine for a few months and start worrying about the Kings. You're creeping us out. Also, I'd move to sunglasses in public at all times. Just a thought.
(Note: I gave the Kings a "6" for rigging potential just in case the league wants to grease the skids for a Vegas move by giving them a young superstar to sell in Sin City. You never know.)
10. BULLS
(No. 9 in the Ping-Pong order, via the Knicks)
Bad Luck -- 0
Front Office Competency -- 10
Loyalty/History -- 8
Level of Devastation -- 0
Overdue Good Karma -- 0
Tanking Karma -- 10
Rigging Potential -- 0
Entertainment Value -- 10
Final karma score: 38
Comments: If this spot comes up and Chicago's logo isn't in the No. 10 envelope, it immediately becomes the most dramatic lottery moment of all-time. Every Knicks fan would cease breathing for the rest of the lottery. That's no exaggeration. Whether they'd ever start breathing again remains to be seen. Still, does it seem fair that a top-eight playoff team with a great future -- the same franchise that launched two rebuilding plans in four years and made nine top-seven picks in seven years -- could stumble into a franchise player by fleecing the most incompetent GM in recent NBA history? I say no.
(Note: I had to give the Bulls a "0" for rigging potential simply because there could be rioting in Manhattan if Isiah caused the Knicks to lose either Oden or Durant. It would be like the Ewing lottery, only the exact opposite. You might even see Knicks fans storming MSG holding fire torches with their shirts tied around their heads. I'm assuming the league wants to avoid this scenario.)
9. BOBCATS
(No. 8 in the Ping-Pong order)
Bad Luck -- 6
Front Office Competency -- 5
Loyalty/History -- 0
Level of Devastation -- 3
Overdue Good Karma -- 1
Tanking Karma -- 10
Rigging Potential -- 5
Entertainment Value -- 8
Final karma score: 38
Comments: Given that the NBA misfired so badly with Charlotte as an expansion city, watching the Bobcats land Oden or Durant would be more frustrating than watching Zach Braff make out with Scarlett Johansson. On the other hand, is there a goofier nucleus than Ray Felton, Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor, Sean May, Walter Hermann, Matt Carroll, Adam Morrison and Durant/Oden? I'm giving them an "8" for entertainment value just in case it happens. Can't help myself. It's like somebody threw together a fantasy team and bought them uniforms, a coach and a crowd.
Not every team deserves Oden or Durant
By Bill Simmons
Page 2
On Monday morning, I flew cross-country to watch the NBA draft lottery back home in Boston. Why? Because I still blame myself for screwing up the Duncan lottery. Instead of watching such a pivotal, franchise-defining moment with my father -- the guy who carried me into the Boston Garden since I was 4 years old -- I blew him off to spend a weekend on Cape Cod with a blonde sorta-girlfriend who couldn't understand why the NBA lottery didn't just work like Megabucks.
Bad move. Baaaaaaaaaad move.
After the Celtics failed to get Duncan, I dumped the blonde a few weeks later, mostly because I never forgave myself for watching the lottery with her. (Don't worry, we wouldn't have lasted -- sorta-girlfriends never do.) Ten mostly depressing seasons later, with Duncan headed for a fourth ring and the long-suffering Celtics hitting another fork-in-the-road moment, I couldn't take any chances. I had to come home. I had to watch the NBA lottery with my dad. If only for karmic purposes.
That got me thinking ...
If you approached tonight's lottery from a karmic standpoint, which two teams most deserve a top-two pick? Are the 2007 Celtics even worthy of two potential franchise superstars like Kevin Durant or Greg Oden? To figure this out, I created a "Which Lottery Team Built Up the Most Positive Karma?" scoring system, creating eight categories and evaluating each lottery team accordingly. Here's a description of the categories, with points ranging from 0-10.
1. Bad Luck -- How much of a role did injuries and bad breaks play during the 2006-07 season for each team's lottery appearance? Ten points for the most bad luck.
2. Front Office Competency -- How much of a factor did organizational incompetency play in each team's lottery appearance? Ten points for the most competent front office.
3. Loyalty/History -- How loyal is each team's fan base and how rich is its history? Ten points for richest loyalty/History.
4. Level of Devastation -- If it doesn't get Oden or Durant, how catastrophic will the damage be for each team's fan base and organization? Ten points for most catastrophic.
5. Overdue Good Karma -- Considering everything good and bad that's happened to each lottery team for the past generation (15 years), how overdue is each team for a break? Ten points for most overdue.
6. Tanking Karma -- How much of a role did tanking play for the Ping-Pong positioning of each team? Ten points for the least tanking.
7. Rigging Potential -- We'd never insinuate that the NBA could ever rig the lottery because, obviously, that would be a felony. But if the league WAS to rig the lottery, which lottery teams would be the most appealing destinations for Oden and Durant (factoring in television ratings, merchandising, history, caliber of roster, franchise security and general media buzz). Ten points for the most rigging potential.
8. Entertainment Value -- For the average fan, what's a best-case scenario for the top-two lottery winners in terms of "Which teams would become fun to watch right away", "What would make the best sports story" and "Would the results cause rioting in New York?" Ten points for the most entertainment value.
Which two lottery teams deserve Oden and Durant? Let's count them down in reverse order from lowest points to highest points:
14. CLIPPERS
(No. 14 in the Ping-Pong order)
Bad Luck -- 3 (out of 10)
Front Office Competency -- 4
Loyalty/History -- 2
Level of Devastation -- 0
Overdue Good Karma -- 3
Tanking Karma -- 10
Rigging Potential -- 3
Entertainment Value -- 10
Final karma score: 35
Comments: Which event is less likely -- the Clippers' jumping into the top two with less than a .05 percent chance, or my renewing my season tickets after they finished 40-42 and bumped prices across the board by 25 percent?
(The answer: It's a tie. Neither one is happening.)
13. HORNETS
(No. 13 in the Ping-Pong order)
Bad Luck -- 7
Front Office Competency -- 5
Loyalty/History -- 3
Level of Devastation -- 0
Overdue Good Karma -- 3
Tanking Karma -- 10
Rigging Potential -- 0
Entertainment Value -- 7
Final karma score: 35
Comments: Nabbing Oden/Durant would give New Orleans an emotional lift along the lines of Drew Brees and the Saints a few months ago. Unfortunately, their remote Ping-Pong percentages work against them from a "rigging potential" standpoint. Imagine if the Hornets catapulted into the top two during the summer before they move back to New Orleans and host the All-Star Game? And you thought Ewing landing on the Knicks was sketchy. Also, they can't get more than three points for "overdue good karma" -- not even after Katrina -- because they lucked out so remarkably in 1999 (hopping from No 13 to No. 2 and getting Baron Davis) and 2005 (when Chris Paul improbably dropped to them at No. 4). Sorry.
12. HAWKS
(No. 11 in the Ping-Pong order, via the Pacers)
Bad Luck -- 3
Front Office Competency -- 1
Loyalty/History -- 8
Level of Devastation -- 8
Overdue Good Karma -- 3
Tanking Karma -- 8
Rigging Potential -- 2
Entertainment Value -- 3
Final karma score: 36
Comments: The Pacers keep the pick if it's top-three; 11 or lower and it goes to Atlanta. With all due respect to the Basketball Jesus, few teams made more shaky decisions over a three-year span: teaming up Artest and Jackson; not selling high on Artest; re-signing Tinsley for big bucks; sacrificing a potential lottery pick for Al Harrington in a loaded draft; and especially, making that incomprehensible Golden State trade in which they gave up the best two guys in the deal. They deserve to lose this pick.
(Hold on, give me a second to duck the lightning bolt.)
(Hold on ... )
(Heeeeeeeeeeee-yah!)
(That was close. OK, back to the column.)
11. KINGS
(No. 10 in the Ping-Pong order)
Bad Luck -- 2
Front Office Competency -- 4
Loyalty/History -- 8
Level of Devastation -- 3
Overdue Good Karma -- 3
Tanking Karma -- 8
Rigging Potential -- 6
Entertainment Value -- 2
Final karma score: 36
Comments: They're in no man's land at No. 10 because of their curious choice to stand pat while the 2007 team imploded (an implosion that was 3-4 years coming). Strangely, the Maloofs seem more interested these days in promoting the Palms, giving feature interviews, making commercials and appearing in reality shows. Hey, fellas? Quit the Dean Martin routine for a few months and start worrying about the Kings. You're creeping us out. Also, I'd move to sunglasses in public at all times. Just a thought.
(Note: I gave the Kings a "6" for rigging potential just in case the league wants to grease the skids for a Vegas move by giving them a young superstar to sell in Sin City. You never know.)
10. BULLS
(No. 9 in the Ping-Pong order, via the Knicks)
Bad Luck -- 0
Front Office Competency -- 10
Loyalty/History -- 8
Level of Devastation -- 0
Overdue Good Karma -- 0
Tanking Karma -- 10
Rigging Potential -- 0
Entertainment Value -- 10
Final karma score: 38
Comments: If this spot comes up and Chicago's logo isn't in the No. 10 envelope, it immediately becomes the most dramatic lottery moment of all-time. Every Knicks fan would cease breathing for the rest of the lottery. That's no exaggeration. Whether they'd ever start breathing again remains to be seen. Still, does it seem fair that a top-eight playoff team with a great future -- the same franchise that launched two rebuilding plans in four years and made nine top-seven picks in seven years -- could stumble into a franchise player by fleecing the most incompetent GM in recent NBA history? I say no.
(Note: I had to give the Bulls a "0" for rigging potential simply because there could be rioting in Manhattan if Isiah caused the Knicks to lose either Oden or Durant. It would be like the Ewing lottery, only the exact opposite. You might even see Knicks fans storming MSG holding fire torches with their shirts tied around their heads. I'm assuming the league wants to avoid this scenario.)
9. BOBCATS
(No. 8 in the Ping-Pong order)
Bad Luck -- 6
Front Office Competency -- 5
Loyalty/History -- 0
Level of Devastation -- 3
Overdue Good Karma -- 1
Tanking Karma -- 10
Rigging Potential -- 5
Entertainment Value -- 8
Final karma score: 38
Comments: Given that the NBA misfired so badly with Charlotte as an expansion city, watching the Bobcats land Oden or Durant would be more frustrating than watching Zach Braff make out with Scarlett Johansson. On the other hand, is there a goofier nucleus than Ray Felton, Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor, Sean May, Walter Hermann, Matt Carroll, Adam Morrison and Durant/Oden? I'm giving them an "8" for entertainment value just in case it happens. Can't help myself. It's like somebody threw together a fantasy team and bought them uniforms, a coach and a crowd.