Astros ?'s (nf)

[Eagles52]

The Astros come into this season with a lot of question marks...but a ton of potential. I repeatedly find myself as an optimist with the Astros, despite everything they've put me through lol, so I'm very excited about this season. This will be close to the best case scenario, but its still realistic. If things fall into place like this, how many wins and how far can this team go?
For the Position guys:
I feel like overall production at CF will go up with Burke instead of Taveras, that Biggio will get enough time off to be effective for an entire year, Berkman will be Berkman and Lee will be Lee. I think Ensberg is closer to 2005 than 2006 and that some combo of Scott and Lane/Hidalgo will come up with around the production of Lane is 2005. With so much improvement elsewhere in the lineup, Ausmus and Everett have nowhere to go but up from last year. Loretta will add a ton of flexibility, Lamb and Palmiero make for a great PH and bench duo.

Pitching: Starters
Oswalt will be as great as always, Jennings will have some issues adjusting, but puts up an ERA close to his 3.78 of last year and wins 15+ games. Woody will consistently give good outings, resulting in maybe 12 wins, hopefully Clemens comes back and eats some very effective innings, but for the early part of the Season I think a couple of the young guys do a nice, if at times inconsistent job as the 4 and 5 guys.

Bullpen:
Closer: Lidge comes back with his newly developed sinker and cutter, utilizes those and the 2-seamer he picked up last year with his fastball and Slider to get back to the dominant form he had in 2004 and most of 2005, but mostly due to fixing his mechanics.
I think Wheeler and Qualls will be shut down again and Miller will be as good as he was last year. Some younger guys and Borkowski will fill in the rest.

How good could they be?

[big daddy russ]

I like your optimism, but I'm skeptical of a lot of things, especially Ausmus, Lidge and Clemens. Not that Clemens wouldn't have another spectacular season, but that he might sign elsewhere. His best friend went back to wearing pinstripes and he seems to have lost interest even more than last year. If he signs, I get the feeling that he signs with the Yankees.

Even by his standards, Ausmus had a down year offensively in '06. Sadly, I don't think he bounces back. He'll be 38 at the start of the season and that's a whole lot of miles on those knees. He's averaged about 135 games per year every season for the past decade. I could easily see him breaking down and playing no more than 60 games.

Losing Ausmus would be a huge blow to the pen. He may not be much with a stick, but he's one of the savviest backstops in the league and is invaluable to that staff.

Which brings me to Lidge. Closers are a different breed. They're hard-charging, always ready to go, and are wound up tightly. But one little mistake and they're done. See Keith Foulke, Billy Koch, and Uggy Urbina.

Lidge may have some of the best stuff in baseball, but he's done IMO. He suffered an entire season and never bounced back from that Pujols shot. I think the most likely scenario is him settling into a long relief or setup type of role early in the season and sticking there.

On that note, I'm starting to think Jennings may have been the best pickup of the offseason. I know, I know, having Lee's bat is huge, but if Jennings posted a 3.78 ERA in Mile High with a pathetic Rockies club, there's no question he could do that in Houston. Could easily slide into Pettitte's role and do a better job.

It wouldn't be hard. Pettitte may have been the most overrated pitcher in baseball the past five years or so (wildly inconsistent, only averages a below-4.00 ERA every other year or so), but he was definitely a money guy during crunch time. Let's see if Jennings can develop that same mentality.

Whether or not Clemens comes back, if Jennings develops into a number two guy and Williams can be a reliable third starter, we may have another postseason berth on our hands. The offense will be there, the defense could be better than average, we're just waiting to see how the staff comes around.

I also think Burke's the next Derek Jeter... nothing absolutely spectacular, but can make contact, has some pop, and is absolutely cool under fire.

A 1-2-3 of Oswalt, an improved Jennings, and a steady Williams isn't bad. A 1-2-3-4 of Oswalt, Clemens, an improved Jennings, and a steady Williams, AND a healthy Ausmus puts them on the inside track to the Series.

[coach]

astros= boring

[Eagles52]

I really don't think that Lidge is done, his problems were mechanical last year, not mental. He was starting to fall apart later in 2005 far before the Pujols thing. He never acted really down on himself or his ability, and I've read nothing to tell me otherwise. The WBC didn't allow him enough time to correct his problems, and honestly, the Astros didn't treat his problems like the crisis situation it really was early enough in the year. He's developed some new pitches (a sinker and a cutter, plust the 2 seamer from last year), probably just to be used to help keep players from sitting on one or two pitches, but most importantly, they've discovered where his mistake in his delivery was that caused him to fly open, flatten out his pitches, and made his location suffer last year. He's been doing really well with those mechanics supposedly so far, but it could be a different story when he has to do it in real games, we'll just have to see.

[sahen]

well if everything went perfectly like you just said then they will be very good....it will be interesting to see how our NL Central competitors do as well, we know the Cards will be good but I dont think they will be as dominate as they have been the past couple years and the Cubbies have made some offseason moves that might put them back up there in the race again, though with the Cubs who knows what will happen....it will also be interesting to see if the Reds can finally play consistantly well for a whole season and not for parts of it.....The pirates will most likely suck again but the Brew Crew should make a run for the division this year finally, they have some young talent on that team that showed some promise last year to get them out of the cellar and into the race....

the astros results are gonna depend a lot on their 4 and 5 pitchers and of course Oswalt, Jennings, and Woody staying healthy....If they can find a 4 and 5 guy that can get 10 wins a piece or so and keep them in games then they could be very hard to beat for the Central title.....I think Jennings is gonna be a nice surprise and be better than a lot expect, he has the potential to be a 1 on a lot of rosters and the Astros have a great pitching coaches that do a lot with talent, so i think he could really blossom here to maybe even a 20 game winner (prolly more like 15 this year, but 20 in the future if things go well)...Woody is a good scrappy pitcher however he is aging so health could be an issue, but he is normally good for 10-15 wins a year and if we get lucky he could have a really good year like he did for the Cards a couple years back and get 18 wins out of him...of course Oswalt is a beast and as long as he doesnt get injured he will be around 20 wins...reguardless 1,2, and 3 are solid the main issues will be with 4 and 5 and the bullpen....the bullpen will really be a wait and see thing, i dont think anyone can predict what Lidge and company will play like until April/May but if they are struggling like last year we need to trade at the middle to end of may to get some help...

Anyway the Central looks like they are gonna beat up on each other again this year, im guessing it will finish something like this...im not ranking i'll just do tiers cause that is easier than predicting the order at this point

Tier 1 (competiting for playoffs and Central title):
Astros, Cards, Brewers

Tier 2 (have the tools to win the division but really could go either way, these guys could end up in the cellar with the Pirates or playing in October):
Reds, Cubs

Tier 3 (when will they get competitive again?):
Pirates

[big daddy russ]

If the Cubs' starting rotation was ever healthy for a full season, they'd be one of the best teams in baseball. I can't think of a single team that has three legit aces in the same bullpen.

Mark Prior has the stuff to be the best pitcher in baseball. Kerry Wood is a Roger Clemens clone. Carlos Zambrano just keeps trucking and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the past three or four years.

[GreenGobbla]

Originally posted by coach
astros= boring

i agree

[sahen]

Originally posted by big daddy russ
If the Cubs' starting rotation was ever healthy for a full season, they'd be one of the best teams in baseball. I can't think of a single team that has three legit aces in the same bullpen.

Mark Prior has the stuff to be the best pitcher in baseball. Kerry Wood is a Roger Clemens clone. Carlos Zambrano just keeps trucking and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the past three or four years.
thats why i put them in the middle, u just cant tell with them...if those guys stay healthy they will be playing in october but if they all 3 go down then they will be behind the pirates like last year...I dont think Wood can finish a season w/o getting hurt but if they can keep Prior and Zambrano healthy they are gonna be really tuff esp. since they have Marquois now too...not to mention they should be putting some points on the board

[Gobbla2001]

it's hard to tell... I think it's going to be very exciting though... can't wait

Go 'strosss

[Eagles52]

Another big thing for the Cubs will be the health of Derek Lee. If Lee, Soriano, and Aramis Ramirez stay healthy and have productive seasons, they probably have the best lineup in the Central and competing with the Mets and Phils and the like for the NL.

[rangerjim]

As as life long Cub fan (and I've had a long life) - hopes spring eternal. When the Cubs win the sky is a little bluer, the sun a little warmer. When they lose - oh well, just another year. The Cubs have taught me how to deal with life.

The biggest problem i have being a Cub fan is that I can name you the starting line-up for the '72 Cubbies but can't remember my 4 kids names......................

If health holds for Woods and Prior (don't forget Wade Miller too!) and it's due to hold, $300 million spent in the off-saeson on offense might pay off! It's true the Central will beat up on each other. Will be an interesting year.