Teams with a legit shot at the NC...

[big daddy russ]

...now that Louisville and WVU are out of the picture. (In order of how they were ranked last week.)

Ohio State/Michigan
Florida
Texas
Auburn
USC (play Cal and ND)
Cal
Notre Dame


OUTSIDE SHOTS
West Virginia
Arkansas
LSU (the only two-loss team realistically in the running... both losses came to top-six teams)
Rutgers



Remaining schedules (other than Michigan/OSU... one will knock the other out):

FLORIDA
vs. South Carolina
vs. W. Carolina
@ FSU {Rivalry game}
(possible) SEC Championship... likely opponents:
1. #11 Arkansas
2. #5 Auburn
3. #12 LSU

TEXAS
vs. K-State
vs. #24 TAMU {Rivalry game}
(possible) BCS Championship... likely opponents
1. Mizzou
2. Nebraska
3. K-State

AUBURN
vs. UGA {Rivalry game}
vs. Bama {Rivalry game}
(possible... right now on the outside looking in...) SEC Championship... likely opponents:
1. #6 Florida
2. #13 Tennessee
3. Kentucky (they're not out of it just yet)

USC
vs. #21 Oregon
vs. #8 Cal {I guess you could mark this down as a rivalry game... it's been heated the past four years or so}
vs. #9 Notre Dame {Rivalry game}
@ UCLA {Rivalry game}

CAL
@ Arizona
@ #7 USC {I guess you could mark this down as a rivalry game... it's been heated the past four years or so}
vs. Stanford {Rivalry game}

NOTRE DAME
@ Air Force
vs. Army
@ #7 USC {Rivalry game}

WEST VIRGINIA
vs. Cincy
@ Pitt
vs. Southern Florida
vs. #15 Rutgers

ARKANSAS
vs. #13 Tennessee
@ MS State
vs. #12 LSU {Rivalry game}
(possible) SEC Championship... likely opponents:
1. #6 Florida
2. #13 Tennessee
3. Kentucky (they're not out of it just yet)

LSU
vs. Bama
vs. Ole Miss
@ #11 Arkansas {Rivalry game}
(possible) SEC Championship... likely opponents:
1. #6 Florida
2. #13 Tennessee
3. Kentucky (they're not out of it just yet)

RUTGERS
@ Cincy
vs. Syracuse {Somewhat of a rivalry game}
@ #10 West Virginia

[wooden bear]

Florida has the best shot I think. I think they controll their own destiny.

[big daddy russ]

BTW, teams that are scheduled to play each other (not including championship games):

Ohio State/Michigan
USC/Cal
USC/Notre Dame
WVU/Rutgers
Arkie/LSU


For the Texas fans out there, do you root for WVU or Rutgers? It's a long shot for either team, but it could happen. Rutgers would have voter pull from being undefeated while WVU has the higher ranking.

[wooden bear]

Whoever wins the sec should play in the nc.

[HM33]

Yes, the SEC is way to strong not to be in there.

[stxfootballfan]

Originally posted by wooden bear
Whoever wins the sec should play in the nc.

So if Arkansas loses to the Vols and beats LSU and Florida you think they should be in NC game?

[big daddy russ]

Originally posted by stxfootballfan
So if Arkansas loses to the Vols and beats LSU and Florida you think they should be in NC game?
I wouldn't have a problem with it. I think Arkie's a stout team.

If it all plays out like it should, Arkie will have losses to #7 USC and (by then) top-ten Tennessee, with wins over top-ten teams Florida, Auburn, and LSU.

Not a bad resume.

[injuredinmelee]

Originally posted by wooden bear
Whoever wins the sec should play in the nc.
if the winner of the SEC finishes with one loss they probably should.

[injuredinmelee]

For the Texas fans out there, do you root for WVU or Rutgers? It's a long shot for either team, but it could happen. Rutgers would have voter pull from being undefeated while WVU has the higher ranking.

I think us Horn fans have to pull for WVU in that game.

[CelinaCatFan]

I'm going with Arkansas on this one. Their running game is clicking on all cylinders right now. McFadden is a monster and Felix Jones could start for most other DI schools. If they win out, they will have beaten at least 6 ranked opponents.

If they don't get the job done this year, they will be SCARY good next season. With Mustaine, McFadden, Jones, and that defense, look out!

[Old Tiger]

Numbers wise it is not possible for Rutgers to make it to the NC but they should make it to the BCS game if they win the Big East title. IMO it comes down to Texas, Florida, and Auburn as a bid in the NC. There will not be a repeat of the Michigan/Ohio State game. Each team can compile their own good story of why they should be in the NC but it's very close between these two teams. IMO USC is out of the picture since they lost to Oregon State. As for Arkansas they got blown out by a overrated USC team so I think that doesn't helpt their cause.

[3afan]

Originally posted by big daddy russ

For the Texas fans out there, do you root for WVU or Rutgers? It's a long shot for either team, but it could happen. Rutgers would have voter pull from being undefeated while WVU has the higher ranking.

don't think it matters - if Texas wins out neither RU or WVU can leapfrog them .....

[stxfootballfan]

Originally posted by Tiger WR
Numbers wise it is not possible for Rutgers to make it to the NC but they should make it to the BCS game if they win the Big East title. IMO it comes down to Texas, Florida, and Auburn as a bid in the NC. There will not be a repeat of the Michigan/Ohio State game. Each team can compile their own good story of why they should be in the NC but it's very close between these two teams. IMO USC is out of the picture since they lost to Oregon State. As for Arkansas they got blown out by a overrated USC team so I think that doesn't helpt their cause.

Maybe the SEC is overated

[Hansum Stranger]

There is no reason at all that Florida should be ahead of Auburn. They both have one loss, and Florida's was to Auburn. The SEC hasn't proven to be the best conference out there. They've just proven to have alot of teams with the same talent level.

[stxfootballfan]

Originally posted by Hansum Stranger
There is no reason at all that Florida should be ahead of Auburn. They both have one loss, and Florida's was to Auburn. The SEC hasn't proven to be the best conference out there. They've just proven to have alot of teams with the same talent level.

Exactly my point but this is the fun thing about college football we can sit here and debate for days about who deserves what Maybe we dont want a playoff system cuz then we wouldnt have anything to talk about

[Sweetwater Red]

One thing that Mel Kiper Jr. pointed out on ESPN is that there
will be 50 days between when Michigan and Ohio St. play til
the winner plays in the BCS title game. That's just stupid.

[Gehrig]

USC will play the winner of Ohio State-Michigan if they win out. They will have leap-frogged everyone in the human polls by that time with wins over the remaining ranked teams on their schedule and the computers love them because of their strength of schedule. I see USC being the only team out there that controls its on destiny of the remaining one-loss teams. If USC loses along the way Texas will be in the NC if they win out. Florida is about to take a big hit in the computer polls as their strength of schedule falls dramatically the rest of the way, especially with the IAA team remaining on it.

Bottom line...USC wins out, they are in, finishing 2 or 3 in the human polls and 2 in the computer polls. USC loses and Texas wins out, they are in, finishing #2 in both human polls and top 5 in the computer rankings.

If both lose along the way...all bets are off but my money would be on SEC Champion if it is not a 2 loss Arkansas. Don't see a 2 loss team getting in under any scenario.

[mrescape43]

Originally posted by Gehrig
USC will play the winner of Ohio State-Michigan if they win out. They will have leap-frogged everyone in the human polls by that time with wins over the remaining ranked teams on their schedule and the computers love them because of their strength of schedule. I see USC being the only team out there that controls its on destiny of the remaining one-loss teams. If USC loses along the way Texas will be in the NC if they win out. Florida is about to take a big hit in the computer polls as their strength of schedule falls dramatically the rest of the way, especially with the IAA team remaining on it.

Bottom line...USC wins out, they are in, finishing 2 or 3 in the human polls and 2 in the computer polls. USC loses and Texas wins out, they are in, finishing #2 in both human polls and top 5 in the computer rankings.

If both lose along the way...all bets are off but my money would be on SEC Champion if it is not a 2 loss Arkansas. Don't see a 2 loss team getting in under any scenario.
USC will have 2 losses by seasons end.

[big daddy russ]

Originally posted by Hansum Stranger
There is no reason at all that Florida should be ahead of Auburn. They both have one loss, and Florida's was to Auburn. The SEC hasn't proven to be the best conference out there. They've just proven to have alot of teams with the same talent level.
USC (definite top-tier team) donkeystomped Arkie at the start of the season, but Tennessee returned the favor to Cal (another top-tier team).

Tennessee and Arkie play each other this weekend, so we'll see if they're on the same level. If they are, do you think we could safely say that they could both compete with USC and Cal (and vice-versa) on most days? If Tennessee wins big, would you be willing to say that Arkie's win over Auburn was a fluke?

Also, Auburn beat the crap out of top 25 squad Wazzu while lowly Kentucky hung with Louisville for a while. Yeah, I'd say the SEC has proved TONS more than any other conference this year.

[big daddy russ]

Originally posted by Tiger WR
Numbers wise it is not possible for Rutgers to make it to the NC but they should make it to the BCS game if they win the Big East title...
There's a lot of football to be played between now and then, and nobody (not even Michigan or OSU) is a shoe-in just yet.

Think of this: what happens if SUNJ beats West Virginia? The BCS is based largely on human polls, and if the pollsters see that Rutgers takes out both Louisville and WVU, then finishes the season undefeated, they could move Rutgers up in the polls.

That completely changes the dynamic of the BCS polls, then Rutgers moves up (possibly to second). I know it's an outside shot, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Besides that, UT, Auburn, and Florida still have games to play. All three have rivlary games (UT vs. A&M, Auburn vs. UGA and Bama, and Florida vs. FSU) and then a possible championship game to boot.

Chances are, it comes down to UT, AU, or UF, but it's not entirely out of the question that Rutgers or someone else sneaks in there.

[GOFOR2]

I just dont see why people keep saying the SEC is so tough. Kentucky and Vanderbilt putting a scare into teams sounds ridiculous. Auburn is not consistent. Arkansas has put a string of wins together but took too big of a whipping to an overrated USC at home. LSU is good but find way to lose big games. Tennessee did beat Cal, but I dont think they could beat them now. Florida I think has the best chance if they win out.
I think that although the Horns' secondary is suspect, they have one of the most talented group of kids in the country at all positions.

[g$$]

Ohio State/Michigan winner plays ??

--Texas has the poll #s, computers hate them (Big 12 not helping them or weak non-conference schedule other than tOSU)
--USC has the strongest schedule remaining (Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame, & UCLA). Will they jump up in the BCS?
--SEC battles to come for Florida & Auburn (LSU is not in hunt w/ 2 losses but probably the most talented team in SEC)
--Arkansas has 1 loss to USC (this will help USC if both run the table & win out)
--Cal is very talented so don't sleep on them

What happens?

I say Ohio State vs. USC unfortunately due to computer geeks & name appeal. Texas' schedule is killing them & beating Nebraska again will not help (USC already beat them handily). BCS is just nuts IMO.

[Old Tiger]

Originally posted by g$$
Ohio State/Michigan winner plays ??

--Texas has the poll #s, computers hate them (Big 12 not helping them or weak non-conference schedule other than tOSU)
--USC has the strongest schedule remaining (Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame, & UCLA). Will they jump up in the BCS?
--SEC battles to come for Florida & Auburn (LSU is not in hunt w/ 2 losses but probably the most talented team in SEC)
--Arkansas has 1 loss to USC (this will help USC if both run the table & win out)
--Cal is very talented so don't sleep on them

What happens?

I say Ohio State vs. USC unfortunately due to computer geeks & name appeal. Texas' schedule is killing them & beating Nebraska again will not help (USC already beat them handily). BCS is just nuts IMO. Actually i was watching Mike and Mike this morning and Cal's schedule is ranked above USC.




Also just a random fact the lowest ranked BCS team to jump into the NC game was a 7th ranked LSU team. :)

[stxfootballfan]

I don't see USC winning out I think they lose 2 more games by seasons end. I also think one or two of the one loss teams(Texas, Florida, Auburn) loses one more game before seasons end. All 3 of these teams still have tough games ahead.