In-Depth Region I Playoff Picture and Projection

[WOS87]

TEAMS IN *RED* HAVE CLINCHED A PLAYOFF BERTH

DISTRICT 1 Standings after Week 10
(numbers in parentheses are enrollment ranking)

(4) *Monahans* 6-0 (9-1)
(5) *Clint* 5-1 (9-1)
(2) *Fort Stockton* 4-2 (7-3)
(3) Pecos 3-3 (5-5)
(7) Anthony 2-4 (5-4)
(1) Fabens 1-5 (2-8)
(6) Tornillo 0-6 (3-6)

Week 10 Games

Monahans - 52
Anthony - 7

Clint - 35
Fort Stockton - 27

Pecos - 47
Tornillo - 36

Division I - (2) Ft Stockton 4-2 (7-3)
Division II Top Seed - (4) Monahans 6-0 (9-1)
Division II Runnerup - (5) Clint 5-1 (9-1)

DISTRICT 3 Standings after Week 10

(2) *Snyder* 3-0 (7-3)
(4) *Midland Greenwood* 2-1 (9-1)
(1)* Andrews* 1-2 (3-7)
(3) Lamesa 0-3 (2-8)

Week 10 Games

Snyder - 20
Andrews - 0

Midland Greenwood - 45
Lamesa - 0

Division I - (1) Andrews 1-2 (3-7)
Division II Top Seed - (2) Snyder 3-0 (7-3)
Division II Runnerup - (4) Midland Greenwood 2-1 (9-1)

DISTRICT 4 Standings after Week 10

(3) *Seminole* 3-0 (8-2)
(4) *Brownfield* 1-2 (3-7)
(1) *Levelland* 1-2 (2-8)
(2) Lubbock Cooper 1-1 (3-5)

Week 10 Games

Levelland - 13
Brownfield - 7

Seminole - 42
Lubbock Cooper - 14

Division I - (1) Levelland 1-2 (2-8)
Division II Top Seed - (3) Seminole 3-0 (8-2)
Division II Runnerup - (4) Brownfield 1-2 (3-7)

DISTRICT 5 Standings after Week 10

(1) *Canyon* 3-0 (8-2)
(3) *Perryton* 2-1 (7-3)
(4) *Dalhart *1-2 (8-2)
(2) Borger 0-3 (3-6)

Week 10 Games

Canyon - 35
Dalhart - 13

Perryton - 47
Borger - 31

Division I - (1) Canyon 3-0 (8-2)
Division II Top Seed - (3) Perryton 2-1 (7-3)
Division II Runnerup - (4) Dalhart 1-2 (8-2)

DISTRICT 6 Standings after Week 10

(3) *Graham* 3-1 (5-5)
(2) *Wichita Falls Hirschi* 2-2 (7-3)
(5) *Vernon* 2-2 (5-5)
(1) Burkburnett 2-2 (7-3)
(4) Iowa Park 1-3 (5-5)

Week 10 Games

Graham - 28
Burkburnett - 7

Vernon - 21
Iowa Park - 7

Division I - (2) Wichita Falls Hirschi 2-2 (7-3)
Division II Top Seed - (3) Graham 3-1 (5-5)
Division II Runnerup - (5) Vernon 2-2 (5-5)

[Paratrooper]

Good info

[VWG]

Love the effort on this one.
Looking through this the one thing that pops out at me are Gainesville and Graham. Both schools are over 700+ enrollment and they have really fallen off this year. Sure, Gainesville lost a ton to graduation but they've got to have the numbers to reload..... don't they? Both teams have the talent, why aren't the wins there?
Graham is in some turmoil with kids quitting the team and a key injury... but what is Gainesville's excuse?

[WOS87]

DISTRICT 7 Standings after Week 9

(1) *Abilene Wylie* 3-0 (7-2)
(2) Sweetwater 2-1 (7-2)
(3) Clyde 2-2 (5-5)
(4) Breckenridge 1-2 (6-3)
(5) Comanche 0-3 (2-7)

There are 2 district matchups remaining:

Remaining District Games Ranked from Most Predictable to Least Predictable

Abilene Wylie favored over Comanche (Wk 10) 99%
Sweetwater favored over Breckenridge (Wk 10) 84%

Possible Outcomes
(Team in BLUE goes Division I, Teams in RED Division II)

http://members.aol.com/cboehme/playoffs/district7.gif

(1) If Sweetwater wins next week the three playoff teams will be 1st - Abilene Wylie (Division I) , 2nd - Sweetwater, 3rd - Clyde
(2) If Breckenridge wins next week the three playoff teams will be 1st - Abilene Wylie (Division I) , 2nd & 3rd - If Breckenridge wins by 8-15 pts or more (depending on the point differential cutoff for the district) they will be 2nd and be the top seed in Division II and Sweetwater would be 3rd. If they win by less than 8 pts they are certain to be the Runnerup seed in the Division II playoffs and Sweetwater would be the top seed.

Most Likely Final Standings

Division I - (1) Abilene Wylie 4-0 (8-2)
Division II Top Seed - (2) Sweetwater 3-1 (8-2)
Division II Runnerup - (3) Clyde 2-2 (5-5)
(4) Breckenridge 1-3 (6-4)
(5) Comanche 0-4 (2-8)


DISTRICT 8 Standings after Week 9

(1) *Decatur* 4-0 (9-0)
(5) *Argyle* 3-1 (7-2)
(3) *Sanger* 3-1 (7-2)
(4) Bridgeport 1-3 (1-8)
(6) Bowie 1-3 (2-7)
(2) Gainesville 0-4 (1-8)

There are 3 district matchups remaining:

Remaining District Games Ranked from Most Predictable to Least Predictable

Decatur favored over Bowie (Wk 10) 99%
Sanger favored over Argyle (Wk 10) 56%
Bridgeport favored over Gainesville (Wk 10) 51%

Possible Outcomes
(Team in BLUE goes Division I, Teams in RED Division II)

http://members.aol.com/cboehme/playoffs/district8.gif

(1) If Sanger beats Argyle the playoff teams will be 1st - Decatur (Division I), 2nd - Sanger (Division II top seed), 3rd - Argyle (Division II runnerup)
(2) If Argyle beats Sanger the playoff teams will be 1st - Decatur (Division I), 2nd - Argyle (Division II top seed), 3rd - Sanger (Division II runnerup)

Most Likely Final Standings

Division I - (1) Decatur 5-0 (10-0)
Division II Top Seed - (3) Sanger 4-1 (8-2)
Division II Runnerup - (5) Argyle 3-2 (7-3)
(4) Bridgeport 2-3 (2-8)
(6) Bowie 1-4 (2-8)
(2) Gainesville 0-5 (1-9)


PROJECTED 3A REGION I PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

Teams in yellow are locked in to place and are guaranteed that particular playoff slot no matter what happens in week 10.

Division I

(Dist 1) Fort Stockton (7-3) vs. BYE
(Dist 3) Andrews (3-7) vs. (Dist 4) Lubbock Cooper (3-7)
(Dist 5) Canyon (8-2) vs. (Dist 6) Burkburnett (8-2)
(Dist 7) Abilene Wylie (8-2) vs. (Dist 8) Decatur (10-0)

Division II

(Dist 1 #1) Monahans (9-1) vs. BYE
(Dist 3 #1) Snyder (7-3) vs. (Dist 4 #2) Brownfield (4-6)
(Dist 5 #1) Perryton (7-3) vs. (Dist 6 #2) Graham (4-6)
(Dist 7 #1) Sweetwater (8-2) vs. (Dist 8 #2) Argyle (7-3)
(Dist 1 #2) Clint (9-1) vs. BYE
(Dist 3 #2) Midland Greenwood (9-1) vs. (Dist 4 #1) Seminole (8-2)
(Dist 5 #2) Dalhart (8-2) vs. (Dist 6 #1) Wichita Falls Hirschi (7-3)
(Dist 7 #2) Clyde (5-5) vs. (Dist 8 #1) Sanger (8-2)

[Hansum Stranger]

Originally posted by VWG
... but what is Gainesville's excuse?

Rumors going around that last year the coaches wouldn't work or spend anytime with the JV since they all knew it was gonna be their last year there. It's unfortunate for the kids if this is true.

[Da Mules]

very good indeed... how well do statistics match up with 16-18 year-old kids?:p
about the missing district 2... are you saying that the team with the best record in districts 1-4 gets the first-round bye, or the team with the best overall record in district 1-8? Please elaborate.

[GreenMonster]

district 1 gets the bye. All of District 1 1st place through 3rd place.

[jlwzz]

Originally posted by GreenMonster
district 1 gets the bye. All of District 1 1st place through 3rd place. is there some reason for that or is it just the way it has always been :thinking:

[VWG]

Originally posted by Hansum Stranger
Rumors going around that last year the coaches wouldn't work or spend anytime with the JV since they all knew it was gonna be their last year there. It's unfortunate for the kids if this is true.

OK... but hey, talent wise, shouldn't the Lep's be able to reload?
What was the JV record last year? Is their offense just totally diff. than last years?

[Hansum Stranger]

Originally posted by VWG
OK... but hey, talent wise, shouldn't the Lep's be able to reload?
What was the JV record last year? Is their offense just totally diff. than last years?

Can't answer those questions. Just know the lost every starter, 29 seniors and the whole coaching staff from the last 3 years.

[3afan]

wow - goodonya WOS87

[3afan]

Sweetwater (8-2) vs. Argyle (7-3) ...... S'water could be one & done! odds are against it but this is a great round 1 matchup

[jlwzz]

oh yea i forgot to thank you WOS87.

great work and i am still trying to get the Decatur history for you if you still need it

[WOS87]

Updated to include week 8 results

[Technoredneck]

YOU are Da MAN

[GWOOD]

Good work WOS87!

One question--I thought I heard Seminole had the largest enrollment in 4-3A. I don't know where to find the enrollment #'s and I assume you have them. Lubbock Cooper is larger than Seminole?

[Snyder_TigerFan]

Originally posted by GWOOD
Good work WOS87!

One question--I thought I heard Seminole had the largest enrollment in 4-3A. I don't know where to find the enrollment #'s and I assume you have them. Lubbock Cooper is larger than Seminole?

Link to Enrollment #'s (http://www.uil.utexas.edu/2006align/pdf/3A_fb_enroll.pdf)

Brownfield 537
Levelland 821
Lubbock Cooper 677
Seminole 625

[GWOOD]

Thanks Tiger Fan. I now have bookmarked that page so that I can get it when I need it.

WOS87, we have played Brownfield and Levelland and I believe Levelland has a lot more horses on the field than Brownfield. If they do win that game that would change Levelland to D1 and move L Cooper to runner-up in D2. Doesn't affect much

[WOS87]

Geez.... it was tedious work calculating it all out, but it looks like Monahans is the only team in Region I that is absolutely guaranteed a playoff spot at this point.

[GWOOD]

Originally posted by WOS87
Geez.... it was tedious work calculating it all out, but it looks like Monahans is the only team in Region I that is absolutely guaranteed a playoff spot at this point.

LOL. Wasn't meant to be critical. This is a discussion board. ;)

[WOS87]

Oh... that last post wasn't in response to yours... I was just commenting on how painful it was working through every possible combination of wins and losses for the games that remain only to find that just 1 team has clinched a spot...



:wave: :wave:

[GWOOD]

Originally posted by WOS87
Oh... that last post wasn't in response to yours... I was just commenting on how painful it was working through every possible combination of wins and losses for the games that remain only to find that just 1 team has clinched a spot...


OK, I got ya! Yea that's partly due to the high number of 4 team and 5 team districts in Region 1. Is Region 4 in the same boat?

[WOS87]

Other than District 1, the 5 team districts are the only ones that have teams that have clinched and Region IV is mostly 5 team districts so there are a few actually.

Statewide, the only teams that are definitely in are Monahans, Medina Valley, Devine, Gonzales, Raymondville and Port Isabel.

All 6 of these teams are in odd-numbered districts and have only one game left to play in the regular season, with either Week 9 or 10 as a Bye week.

[Snydertigersrul]

Originally posted by GWOOD
LOL. Wasn't meant to be critical. This is a discussion board. ;)

District 3-3A playoff qualifiers could become official next week if Snyder beats Lamesa (which they will) and Greenwood beats Andrews. Mathmatcially, Greenwood would need to beat Lamesa in its final game (which won't be a problem). Snyder would play Brownfield (if they beat Levelland) or possibly a rematch against Lubbock Cooper. Greenwood would play Seminole in a rematch.

[westcoast54]

Originally posted by Hansum Stranger
Rumors going around that last year the coaches wouldn't work or spend anytime with the JV since they all knew it was gonna be their last year there. It's unfortunate for the kids if this is true.

That's a bunch of BS. They got coached everyday!!! Trust me I know! The Oline this year is comprised mainly of kids who were juniors last year on the JV. The JV went 3-6. They were coached hard everyday. Nobody knew during last season that anyone was going to leave. When the HC did leave there were a group of coaches prepared to stay had the administration hired from within. That didn't happen. So more coaches left. The person(s) starting this absurd rumor are idiots. Maby work ethic and attitude should be looked at on some of this years players. I think if you do that, you would find that some, not all, of this years team just did what they could to get by.

[WOS87]

Updated and adjusted using the Week 9 Massey probability percentages. The only change from last week affecting the playoff projection is that Vernon is now favored to beat Iowa Park which switches the two as Division II top seed and runnerup.

[Hansum Stranger]

Originally posted by westcoast54
That's a bunch of BS. They got coached everyday!!! Trust me I know! The Oline this year is comprised mainly of kids who were juniors last year on the JV. The JV went 3-6. They were coached hard everyday. Nobody knew during last season that anyone was going to leave. When the HC did leave there were a group of coaches prepared to stay had the administration hired from within. That didn't happen. So more coaches left. The person(s) starting this absurd rumor are idiots. Maby work ethic and attitude should be looked at on some of this years players. I think if you do that, you would find that some, not all, of this years team just did what they could to get by.

I said it was just rumors going around, never said it was factual. However, Cordell did know that last year was his last up there in Gainesville. That part isn't a rumor.

[westcoast54]

Originally posted by WOS87
Updated and adjusted using the Week 9 Massey probability percentages. The only change from last week affecting the playoff projection is that Vernon is now favored to beat Iowa Park which switches the two as Division II top seed and runnerup.

Vernon beats IP and more than likely IP is out. They are out for sure if they do loose to Vernon in two weeks and Hirschi pulls off an upset in Burk. on Friday, which could happen. Graham could also get in as long as they win out. They are at Vernon and home for Burk. Burk could actually miss the playoffs if they loose their final two. This district is very unprecictable.

[westcoast54]

Originally posted by Hansum Stranger
I said it was just rumors going around, never said it was factual. However, Cordell did know that last year was his last up there in Gainesville. That part isn't a rumor.

He felt he would be out, but nothing was for sure. If he hadn't gotten the right offer he would still be in Gainesville. This job may be open again. They have kids walking off the field and leaving during a game, getting in arguments with cheerleaders during a game and having to be escorted from the stadium. Sounds like the inmates have taken over the asylum. I can assure you that things like this would have never happened in the past.

[injuredinmelee]

Nice work!

[mustang68]

Great work thanks.

Too bad Wylie and Deactur have to meet in first round.
Good luck to both teams in the playoffs.

[GreenMonster]

Originally posted by westcoast54
Vernon beats IP and more than likely IP is out. They are out for sure if they do loose to Vernon in two weeks and Hirschi pulls off an upset in Burk. on Friday, which could happen. Graham could also get in as long as they win out. They are at Vernon and home for Burk. Burk could actually miss the playoffs if they loose their final two. This district is very unprecictable.

If Vernon and Burk win out then IP will be in due to the points system used to break ties in this district. It would make things so much easier though if IP would just beat Vernon and make it clear cut.

[sweetwater07]

Originally posted by mustang68
Great work thanks.

Too bad Wylie and Deactur have to meet in first round.
Good luck to both teams in the playoffs.

this game will be battle of the QB's...Cobb and Edwards will make this a great game.

[westcoast54]

Originally posted by GreenMonster
If Vernon and Burk win out then IP will be in due to the points system used to break ties in this district. It would make things so much easier though if IP would just beat Vernon and make it clear cut.

You are correct. However both Vernon and Burk have two tough weeks ahead of them.

[mustang68]

Who ultimatley represents Region 1 division II?

[Texasfootball2]

Andrews, Fort Stockton, and Lubbock Cooper. Unbelievable, one of these mediocre teams is actually going to make to round three. No doubt, they will be serving up some tail to be kicked by somebody. The top half of Reg. 1 D1 is extremely top heavy.

[mustang68]

ttt

[WOS87]

...

[WOS87]

12 out of 21 playoff spots for Region I have been clinched. 10 spots are still up for grabs.

[Da Mules]

Originally posted by Texasfootball2
Andrews, Fort Stockton, and Lubbock Cooper. Unbelievable, one of these mediocre teams is actually going to make to round three. No doubt, they will be serving up some tail to be kicked by somebody. The top half of Reg. 1 D1 is extremely top heavy.

I am astonished by Lubbock Cooper's downward spiral this year. They lost to lowly Brownfield last night.. so may or may not be serving as somebody's playoff foil

[Z motion 10 out on 2]

District 6:

From the Vernon Daily Record:
For Vernon to get in they have to beat IP & Graham has to beat Burk. If Graham does not beat Burk Vernon is out no matter a win at IP.

[WOS87]

There are only 4 possible scenarios since only 2 games are left for the regular season. If the tiebreaker is as I understand it to be it would go like this. A combined positive and negative point differential would determine the 1st place winner of a 3-way tie. The 2nd and 3rd places would be determined by their game head-to-head.

Scenario 1: Burkburnett beats Graham AND Vernon beats Iowa Park

1st - Burkburnett (Division I)
2nd - Hirschi
3rd - Graham

District Standings
Burkburnett 3-1
Graham 2-2
Hirschi 2-2
Vernon 2-2
Iowa Park 1-3

Burkburnett is the District Champ and the Division I playoff rep

In the 3-way tie between Graham, Hirschi and Vernon:
Graham lost to Hirschi by 17 (but only 13 points are counted), and beat Vernon by 7 = -6 for combined points
Vernon lost to Graham by 7 and beat Hirschi by 7 = 0 for combined points
Hirschi loss to Vernon by 7 and beat Graham by 17 (+13) = +6 for combined points

Hirschi is the Division II Top seed and Graham would be the 3rd place team and Division II Runnerup due to winning the head-to-head against Vernon.

Scenario 2: Burkburnett beats Graham AND Iowa Park beats Vernon

1st - Burkburnett (Division I)
2nd - Iowa Park
3rd - Hirschi

District Standings
Burkburnett 3-1
Graham 2-2
Hirschi 2-2
Iowa Park 2-2
Vernon 1-3

Burkburnett is the District Champ and the Division I playoff rep

In the 3-way tie between Graham, Hirschi and Iowa Park:
Graham lost to Hirschi by 17 (but only 13 points are counted), and beat Iowa Park by 4 = -9 combined
Iowa Park lost to Graham by 4 and beat Hirschi by 13 = +9 combined
Hirschi loss to Iowa Park by 13 and beat Graham by 17 (+13) = 0 combined

Iowa Park is the Division II Top seed and Hirschi would be the 3rd place team and Division II Runnerup due to winning the head-to-head against Graham

Scenario 3: Graham beats Burkburnett AND Vernon beats Iowa Park

1st - Graham
2nd - Vernon
3rd - Hirschi (Division I)

District Standings
Graham 3-1
Burkburnett 2-2
Hirschi 2-2
Vernon 2-2
Iowa Park 1-3

Graham is the District Champ and the Division II top seed

In the 3-way tie between Burkburnett, Hirschi and Vernon:
Burkburnett lost to Hirschi by 7, and beat Vernon by 3 = -4
Vernon lost to Burkburnett by 3 and beat Hirschi by 7 = +4
Hirschi loss to Vernon by 7 and beat Burkburnett by 7 = 0

Vernon is the Division II Runnerup and Hirschi would be the 3rd place team and the Divison I playoff rep due to winning the head-to-head against Burkburnett.

Scenario 4: Graham beats Burkburnett AND Iowa Park beats Vernon

1st - Graham
2nd - Iowa Park
3rd - Hirschi (Division I)

District Standings
Graham 3-1
Burkburnett 2-2
Hirschi 2-2
Iowa Park 2-2
Vernon 1-3

Graham is the District Champ and the Division II top seed

In the 3-way tie between Burkburnett, Hirschi and Iowa Park:
Burkburnett lost to Hirschi by 7 and beat Iowa Park by 6 = -1
Iowa Park lost to Burkburnett by 6 and beat Hirschi by 13 = +7
Hirschi lost to Iowa Park by 13 and beat Burkburnett by 7 = -6

Iowa Park is the Division II Runnerup and Hirschi would be the 3rd place team and Divison I rep due to winning the head-to-head against Burkburnett

[Z motion 10 out on 2]

That is correct. Vernon only gets in on 1 of those scenarios.

Vernon must beat IP & Graham must beat Burk.

[#1Eaglefan]

Originally posted by 3afan
Sweetwater (8-2) vs. Argyle (7-3) ...... S'water could be one & done! odds are against it but this is a great round 1 matchup

No way will this be a great matchup! Sweetwater will tear Argyle up! Not even close on this one!

[trenchdweller]

great work. 2 questions.
1- is any one going to update this after week 9.
and 2- how did you find out each districts tiebreaker systems or are you only speculating... for example cooper seminole brownfield and levelland

[trenchdweller]

ttt

[WOS87]

Originally posted by trenchdweller
great work. 2 questions.
1- is any one going to update this after week 9.
and 2- how did you find out each districts tiebreaker systems or are you only speculating... for example cooper seminole brownfield and levelland


I am updating continuously as I learn any new information... especially regarding how tiebreakers are broken. The way I calculated each district tiebreak unless I knew otherwise was using a combined points differential, which I realize is not how every district breaks a 3-way tie. So by no means should all of this be taken as gospel.

[trenchdweller]

thanks for the info i heard somewhere that they were +15 district

[WOS87]

Yes, I have WAY too much time on my hands.... go ahead and say it... I'm off for most of the week so I usually get stir crazy when I'm not working...

Individual charts for each district with all the possible outcomes added in to make it easier to see

[Stownhorse]

How does district one get the byes?

[Texasfootball2]

Originally posted by Stownhorse
How does district one get the byes?

There is no district 2 in football, only basketball.

[Sweetwater Red]

(Dist 1) Fort Stockton (7-3) vs. BYE
(Dist 3) Andrews (3-7) vs. (Dist 4) Lubbock Cooper (3-7)
(Dist 5) Canyon (8-2) vs. (Dist 6) Burkburnett (8-2)
(Dist 7) Abilene Wylie (8-2) vs. (Dist 8) Decatur (10-0)


A 3 and 7 team is going to make it to the second round and
either Wylie or Decatur isn't. Talk about luck of the draw...:( .

[Stownhorse]

Originally posted by Sweetwater Red
(Dist 1) Fort Stockton (7-3) vs. BYE
(Dist 3) Andrews (3-7) vs. (Dist 4) Lubbock Cooper (3-7)
(Dist 5) Canyon (8-2) vs. (Dist 6) Burkburnett (8-2)
(Dist 7) Abilene Wylie (8-2) vs. (Dist 8) Decatur (10-0)


A 3 and 7 team is going to make it to the second round and
either Wylie or Decatur isn't. Talk about luck of the draw...:( .

They will be 4-7 lol

[Texasfootball2]

Originally posted by Sweetwater Red
(Dist 1) Fort Stockton (7-3) vs. BYE
(Dist 3) Andrews (3-7) vs. (Dist 4) Lubbock Cooper (3-7)
(Dist 5) Canyon (8-2) vs. (Dist 6) Burkburnett (8-2)
(Dist 7) Abilene Wylie (8-2) vs. (Dist 8) Decatur (10-0)


A 3 and 7 team is going to make it to the second round and
either Wylie or Decatur isn't. Talk about luck of the draw...:( .

Look at the difference in the records in the top half vs. the records in the bottom half, and after looking at Fort Stocktons schedule. One of those 3-7 teams has a good chance to play in the third round. Wow! Probabably will be the most lobsided third round playoff game in history.

[GWOOD]

Originally posted by Texasfootball2
There is no district 2 in football, only basketball.

...and baseball.;)