Personal Power Ranking for 30-3A for last year...

[SintonFan]

Tonight, I had to do a compare and contrast essay for Art History and Composition. I was really bored and decided to try my hand at power rankings. I've got some statistical knowledge and have enjoyed higher math. My experience is drawn from the many electronics formulas I currently use and college physics (which I loved). This is a first attempt toward a power ranking system...


Power Ranking for 30-3A 2001:


Team: initial: w/opp.: final w/p-off:


Sinton 18.336 17.77 22.77


Mathis 7.61 11.372 14.372


AP -1.256 4.976 4.976


Ingleside 1.568 .057 .057


CCWestOso -15.848 -9.583 -9.583


Taft -10.194 -13.416 -13.416


Of course I'm looking for feedback from anyone. I mean anyone. Please, if the 30-3A guys can give me their opinion, it would give me some insight. We've (posters from 30-3A) have had a year to think about the results of last year. THIS POLL IS WEIGHTED FOR AN ABSOLUTE NORMAL TEAM AT ZERO. Please give me your opinion on whether this might be accurate with LAST YEAR in mind! The three scores are like this:
initial: all raw data for the season
w/opp.: weighted to reflect a team playing good or bad teams
w/p-off: weighted to reflect a team's success in the playoffs (this one needs some work and will be worked on)
Understand, that all opinions are welcome!


[This message has been edited by SintonFan (edited July 16, 2002).]

[SintonFan]

This is, in no way, a point spread ranking. Although it could be adjusted for something like that.

[Old Cardinal]

BE real careful with "spurious accuracy" in statistics....As a private investor, spending approx. one hour per day on cumulative preferred stocks and royalty trust research- after many years, I can assure you that savvy, gut-feelings, acute research into unique situations are more important. That's why "pure" statisticians, and math majors, are terrible at predicting winning portfolios. Numbers don't win ballgames: Coaches that can operate "outside-the-box" and determined kids win ballgames.

[SintonFan]

Originally posted by Old Cardinal:
BE real careful with "spurious accuracy" in statistics....As a private investor, spending approx. one hour per day on cumulative preferred stocks and royalty trust research- after many years, I can assure you that savvy, gut-feelings, acute research into unique situations are more important. That's why "pure" statisticians, and math majors, are terrible at predicting winning portfolios. Numbers don't win ballgames: Coaches that can operate "outside-the-box" and determined kids win ballgames.

That's fair. This is just for fun, Old Cardinal. I even had you in mind when I decided to try this. I rewarded teams that played more 4-A competition and did the opposite for 2-A games. Of course I don't expect these numbers to be accurate in the sense of spirit or competitiveness. It's just a first attempt at a numerical representation of where a team might stand in my opinion. To get the point the way I see it, Old Cardinal, is to look at this as just having fun, not being empirically important to HS football in general. Also, I just like playing with numbers when I have some spare time. Don't forget, I've been stirring up 'hornet's nests' lately and have penanced myself to try something else (jus playing 75).

[sinton66]

SintonFan, I'm interested in your theory and would love to hear more about it, particularily the formula you developed.If you're willing to discuss, I can leave you a pm with my email address on txpreps.
DID sound stirred up didn't I?

[This message has been edited by sinton66 (edited July 16, 2002).]

[SintonFan]

Oh yes, mighty stirred up. LOL. Please PM me, and I'll send you my formula. What's your take on the point system and how accurate does it look with last year in mind? The range of the system is somewhere around +\- 25.

[bearcat1]

How about something in your formula that would prevent teams from gaining additional points when they win a game in 'blowout" fashion. For instance maybe a cap at 35 ...this way those teams who are playing heavy underdogs (ie. Everman vs. CRiverside)...wouldn't advance too far just b/c of the score. I dont know this may have nothing to do with your formula...
bc

Originally posted by SintonFan:
That's fair. This is just for fun, Old Cardinal. I even had you in mind when I decided to try this. I rewarded teams that played more 4-A competition and did the opposite for 2-A games. Of course I don't expect these numbers to be accurate in the sense of spirit or competitiveness. It's just a first attempt at a numerical representation of where a team might stand in my opinion. To get the point the way I see it, Old Cardinal, is to look at this as just having fun, not being empirically important to HS football in general. Also, I just like playing with numbers when I have some spare time. Don't forget, I've been stirring up 'hornet's nests' lately and have penanced myself to try something else (jus playing 75).

[sinton66]

SintonFan, should be done if my OLD memory got the screenname right from the last time. Let me know if you don't see it. Would rather reserve comment until I completely understand your method.

[SintonFan]

Originally posted by bearcat1:
How about something in your formula that would prevent teams from gaining additional points when they win a game in 'blowout" fashion. For instance maybe a cap at 35 ...this way those teams who are playing heavy underdogs (ie. Everman vs. CRiverside)...wouldn't advance too far just b/c of the score. I dont know this may have nothing to do with your formula...
bc

I tried to minimize blowouts by favoring a ratio that is added to the total system. I took into consideration that a 10-0 team might have played weak competition. So I gave as much weight from their competition to be included in their ranking. I beleive this is done in other polls.

[SintonFan]

66, I'm going to txprep now. If I get your message, I'll email you.

[coast]

I am familar with district 30-3A, this looks faily accurate. Not sure AP should fall that high in the ranks? How are things in that district going to shape up this next season?

[SintonFan]

My first impression is that Sinton should take district with Mathis or Aransas Pass second. Inlgleside could make some noise because their games with AP are allways interesting. West Oso and Taft have alot of ground to make up with the rest of the district. I'm waiting for scrimmages to start so better assessments can be made.

[sinfan75]

I tell ya what SintonFan,I think A-P may beat Mathis out this year.A-P came real close last year to beatin em.And they got a slew of starters back.Shoulda seen the gator tail I saw between Sinton and Taft Monday.Moved a dozer over there to pull out a rig.judgin from the size of the tail we figured 8 to 10 foot.Them drainage ditches are gettin full of em around here.

[SintonFan]

(best Steve Irwin voice) Crykee!!! You don't think that fellar made it from Sinton municipal? You've got to be reeeeaal careful around them buggers!


Where'd yall see it? Was it around HW 188?

[sinfan75]

Yeah on county rd 100.Don't think he from Sinton Municipal though.they wouldn't leave there.They got it too comfy!

[sinton66]

SintonFan, you want to try your method on the upcoming G-P meeting? txpreps has the scores from last year. I'm thinking of trying mine on it.

[SintonFan]

66, have you been to the datapoll website? They have all w/l data with pf/pa and their own power ranking. It one of the best sites for all classes of HS football. They also have scedules for the last four years and results. The web address is http://home1.gte.net/cpq29gpl/index.htm
I often visit this site during the season and more in the playoffs. Just look at "Texas High School Football" and click on current year "2001". They've got both GP and Sinton in their respective districts. Great idea! Lets try it...

[SintonFan]

My ranking for GP for last year is:

initial: 9.852 w/opp: 16.762 fin w/pl: 17.762

This, of course, represents their ranking at the 4-A level and doesn't neccesarily translate against a 3-A team by my system. I'm going to work on that. Then I'll try using this for a predictive point system, I've got to try something to adjust for that and adjust the whole system for the upcoming year. Oh well, I should have something in the next couple days. This is fun... whether it's accurate or not.

[sinton66]

SintonFan, no, I wasn't aware of the data poll site, thanks for the info. I see what you mean about the translation from 4A to 3A.
Might involve using some "gut" of your own. Maybe go back and look at Beeville from last season, that might provide insight since Beeville and G-P are in the same class.
P.S. check yahoo for a message.

[SintonFan]

66, lets move the Sinton-GP talk to 75's Sinton vs. GP topic, if you don't mind.