3afan
08-15-2006, 11:48 AM
Three Year Program Analysis
NOTE :: Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last three years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.35
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. Avg. Score: 5.45
- Quality Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 5.45
- Total Wins: Wins over D-I teams. Avg. Score: 17.02
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted divided by two. Avg. Score: 2.95
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.97
- Elite Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Score: 0.82
- Bad Losses: Losses to teams that finished with four wins or fewer, or any loss to a non-D-I team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each bad loss at home. Avg. Score: 1.2
- Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and Categories
Teams 10-6, 5-1 in next post
10. Florida State
Score: 74.89
2005 Ranking: 8 2004 Ranking: 9 2003 Ranking: 2
Program Analysis: While Bobby Bowden's program might not be among the nosebleed status of it was in 2003 when it was ranked second, being in the top ten is nothing to dismiss. Winning the ACC Championship last year was a better prize than many gave the Noles credit for; winning 76% of the games in an improved league is amazing. Not only does a slew of NFL talent flow through Tallahassee, but they also go to class.
Attendance Score: 8.29
2005: 82,724 2004: 82,841 2003: 83,149
APR Score: 9
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 26
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 12
2005: Miami, at Boston College, Virginia Tech (ACC Championship)
2004: UAB, Clemson, Virginia, West Virginia (Gator Bowl)
2003: Maryland, Georgia Tech, at Virginia, NC State, at Florida
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 20
2005: DT Travis Johnson, OT Alex Barron, DB Bryant McFadden, OT Ray Willis, WR Craphonso Thorpe, DB Jerome Carter, DE Chauncey Davis, QB Adrian McPherson, DE Eric Moore
2004: LB Michael Boulware, RB Greg Jones, DE Darnell Dockett, LB Kendyll Pope, WR P.K. Sam
2003: WR Anquan Boldin, DE Alonzo Jackson, G Montrae Holland, OT Brett Williams, OG Todd Williams, WR Talman Gardner
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 7.60
Elite Win Score: 2 2005: at Boston College, Virginia Tech
Bad Losses: 0
9. Auburn
Score: 76.31
2005 Ranking: 12 2004 Ranking: 17 2003 Ranking: 17
Program Analysis: Where did that APR Score come from? It helped propel Auburn up into the top ten and confirm that this is one of the nation's powerhouse programs. While much was made about the 2005 draft with Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams, Carlos Rogers and Jason Campbell going in the first round, the Draft Score was the lowest of anyone in the top 15. Also interesting to note are the Elite Wins compared to the Quality Wins; Auburn's wins aren't cheap. Out of the eight losses in the last three years, six came against teams that could be classified as Elite.
Attendance Score: 8.41
2005: 84,161 2004: 83,085 2003: 85,203
APR Score: 10
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 27
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 11
2005: South Carolina, at Georgia, Alabama
2004: LSU, at Tennessee, Georgia, Tennessee (SEC Championship), Virginia Tech (Sugar Bowl)
2003: Tennessee, at Arkansas, Wisconsin (Music City Bowl)
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 9
2005: RB Ronnie Brown, RB Carnell Williams, DB Carlos Rogers, QB Jason Campbell, DE Jay Ratliff
2004: LB Karlos Dansby, LB Dontarrious Thomas, DE Reggie Torbor, WR Jeris McIntyre
2003: none
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 8.40
Elite Win Score: 7 2005: at Georgia, Alabama 2004: at Tennessee, Georgia, Tennessee (SEC Championship), Virginia Tech (Sugar Bowl)
NOTE: Tennessee finished 2004 with three losses, but two of them were against Auburn. The ruling was to count each as an Elite Win.
Bad Losses: 0
8. Michigan
Score: 76.51
2005 Ranking: 6 2004 Ranking: 8 2003 Ranking: 10
Program Analysis: Michigan fans want the program to come up with more big wins under head coach Lloyd Carr and be in the national title hunt, but being in the top eight isn't anything to blow off. Yeah, the Attendance Score will always keep the Wolverines high up, but the APR and Conference Winning Percentage Scores also helped. The program is half full: the 13 Quality Wins are more than all the teams ranked lower other than Iowa, who also checks in with 13. The program is half empty (for those who want more out of the program): the 13 Quality Wins are lower than everyone in the top seven.
Attendance Score: 11.1
2005: 110,915 2004: 111,025 2003: 110,918
APR Score: 8
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 26
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 13
2005: Northern Illinois, Penn State, at Iowa, at Northwestern
2004: Miami University, Iowa, Minnesota, at Purdue
2003: Houston, at Minnesota, Purdue, at Michigan State, Ohio State
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 9
2005: WR Braylon Edwards, DB Marlin Jackson, C David Baas
2004: RB Chris Perry, DB Jeremy LeSueur, QB John Navarre, OG Tony Pape
2003: TE Ben Joppru, LB Victor Hobson, RB B.J. Askew, QB Drew Henson, DB Cato June, DB Charles Drake
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 8.40
Elite Win Score: 4 2005: Penn State 2004: Iowa 2003: at Minnesota, Ohio State
Bad Losses: 0
7. Ohio State
Score: 78.58
2005 Ranking: 3 2004 Ranking: 2 2003 Ranking: 7
Program Analysis: As expected, the Buckeyes dropped a bit now that the 14-0 national title season of 2003 doesn't count in rankings. The Draft Score is tied with Miami as the nation's best and the Attendance Score is third behind Michigan and Tennessee. The APR could be better and the Elite Win Score is stunningly low going 1-5 against Elite teams.
Attendance Score: 10.49
2005: 105,017 2004: 104,876 2003: 104,870
APR Score: 5
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 29
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 15
2005: Miami University, Iowa, at Minnesota, Northwestern, at Michigan, Notre Dame (Fiesta Bowl)
2004: Cincinnati, Michigan, Oklahoma State (Alamo Bowl)
2003: NC State, Bowling Green, Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue, Kansas State
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 22
2005: PK Mike Nugent, DB Dustin Fox, RB Maurice Clarett
2004: DE Will Smith, DB Chris Gamble, WR Michael Jenkins, TE Ben Hartsock, DT Tim Anderson, P D.J. Sander, DE Darrion Scott, C Alex Stepanovich, DB Will Allen, QB Craig Krenzel, WR Drew Carter, LB Robert Reynolds, OT Shane Olivea, OG Adrien Clarke
2003: DB Mike Doss, DE Kenny Peterson, LB Will Grant, LB Matt Wilhelm, DB Donnie Nickey
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 7.08
Elite Win Score: 1 2005: Notre Dame (Fiesta Bowl)
Bad Losses: 0
6. Georgia
Score: 79.06
2005 Ranking: 4 2004 Ranking: 3 2003 Ranking: 6
Program Analysis: When you win 44 games in four years, your ranking will be fantastic. Everything is rock solid across the board with great Attendance and APR Scores, an excellent Draft Score, and a great conference winning percentage. It's a razor-thin margin between being a top five team and being on just on the outside, and the difference was the Quality Win and Elite Wins Scores. One more big win (like in the Sugar Bowl last year against West Virginia) and the Dawgs would've been fifth.
Attendance Score: 9.25
2005: 92,701 2004: 82,46 2003: 92,058
APR Score: 8
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 29
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 14
2005: Boise State, South Carolina, at Georgia Tech, LSU (SEC Championship)
2004: at South Carolina, LSU, Florida, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin (Outback Bowl)
2003: at Clemson, at Tennessee, Auburn, at Georgia Tech, Purdue (Capital One Bowl)
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 17
2005: DB Thomas Davis, DE David Pollack, WR Reggie Brown, LB Odell Thurman, QB David Greene, WR Fred Gibson
2004: TE Ben Watson, DB Sean Jones, DE Robert Geathers, DB Bruce Thornton
2003: DT Johnathan Sullivan, OT George Foster, LB Boss Bailey, OT Jonathan Stinchcomb, RB Musa Smith, LB Tony Gilbert, RB J.T. Wall
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 7.31
Elite Win Score: 3 2005: LSU (SEC Championship) 2004: Wisconsin (Outback Bowl) 2003: at Tennessee
Bad Losses: 0
NOTE :: Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last three years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.35
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. Avg. Score: 5.45
- Quality Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 5.45
- Total Wins: Wins over D-I teams. Avg. Score: 17.02
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted divided by two. Avg. Score: 2.95
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.97
- Elite Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Score: 0.82
- Bad Losses: Losses to teams that finished with four wins or fewer, or any loss to a non-D-I team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each bad loss at home. Avg. Score: 1.2
- Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and Categories
Teams 10-6, 5-1 in next post
10. Florida State
Score: 74.89
2005 Ranking: 8 2004 Ranking: 9 2003 Ranking: 2
Program Analysis: While Bobby Bowden's program might not be among the nosebleed status of it was in 2003 when it was ranked second, being in the top ten is nothing to dismiss. Winning the ACC Championship last year was a better prize than many gave the Noles credit for; winning 76% of the games in an improved league is amazing. Not only does a slew of NFL talent flow through Tallahassee, but they also go to class.
Attendance Score: 8.29
2005: 82,724 2004: 82,841 2003: 83,149
APR Score: 9
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 26
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 12
2005: Miami, at Boston College, Virginia Tech (ACC Championship)
2004: UAB, Clemson, Virginia, West Virginia (Gator Bowl)
2003: Maryland, Georgia Tech, at Virginia, NC State, at Florida
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 20
2005: DT Travis Johnson, OT Alex Barron, DB Bryant McFadden, OT Ray Willis, WR Craphonso Thorpe, DB Jerome Carter, DE Chauncey Davis, QB Adrian McPherson, DE Eric Moore
2004: LB Michael Boulware, RB Greg Jones, DE Darnell Dockett, LB Kendyll Pope, WR P.K. Sam
2003: WR Anquan Boldin, DE Alonzo Jackson, G Montrae Holland, OT Brett Williams, OG Todd Williams, WR Talman Gardner
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 7.60
Elite Win Score: 2 2005: at Boston College, Virginia Tech
Bad Losses: 0
9. Auburn
Score: 76.31
2005 Ranking: 12 2004 Ranking: 17 2003 Ranking: 17
Program Analysis: Where did that APR Score come from? It helped propel Auburn up into the top ten and confirm that this is one of the nation's powerhouse programs. While much was made about the 2005 draft with Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams, Carlos Rogers and Jason Campbell going in the first round, the Draft Score was the lowest of anyone in the top 15. Also interesting to note are the Elite Wins compared to the Quality Wins; Auburn's wins aren't cheap. Out of the eight losses in the last three years, six came against teams that could be classified as Elite.
Attendance Score: 8.41
2005: 84,161 2004: 83,085 2003: 85,203
APR Score: 10
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 27
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 11
2005: South Carolina, at Georgia, Alabama
2004: LSU, at Tennessee, Georgia, Tennessee (SEC Championship), Virginia Tech (Sugar Bowl)
2003: Tennessee, at Arkansas, Wisconsin (Music City Bowl)
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 9
2005: RB Ronnie Brown, RB Carnell Williams, DB Carlos Rogers, QB Jason Campbell, DE Jay Ratliff
2004: LB Karlos Dansby, LB Dontarrious Thomas, DE Reggie Torbor, WR Jeris McIntyre
2003: none
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 8.40
Elite Win Score: 7 2005: at Georgia, Alabama 2004: at Tennessee, Georgia, Tennessee (SEC Championship), Virginia Tech (Sugar Bowl)
NOTE: Tennessee finished 2004 with three losses, but two of them were against Auburn. The ruling was to count each as an Elite Win.
Bad Losses: 0
8. Michigan
Score: 76.51
2005 Ranking: 6 2004 Ranking: 8 2003 Ranking: 10
Program Analysis: Michigan fans want the program to come up with more big wins under head coach Lloyd Carr and be in the national title hunt, but being in the top eight isn't anything to blow off. Yeah, the Attendance Score will always keep the Wolverines high up, but the APR and Conference Winning Percentage Scores also helped. The program is half full: the 13 Quality Wins are more than all the teams ranked lower other than Iowa, who also checks in with 13. The program is half empty (for those who want more out of the program): the 13 Quality Wins are lower than everyone in the top seven.
Attendance Score: 11.1
2005: 110,915 2004: 111,025 2003: 110,918
APR Score: 8
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 26
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 13
2005: Northern Illinois, Penn State, at Iowa, at Northwestern
2004: Miami University, Iowa, Minnesota, at Purdue
2003: Houston, at Minnesota, Purdue, at Michigan State, Ohio State
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 9
2005: WR Braylon Edwards, DB Marlin Jackson, C David Baas
2004: RB Chris Perry, DB Jeremy LeSueur, QB John Navarre, OG Tony Pape
2003: TE Ben Joppru, LB Victor Hobson, RB B.J. Askew, QB Drew Henson, DB Cato June, DB Charles Drake
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 8.40
Elite Win Score: 4 2005: Penn State 2004: Iowa 2003: at Minnesota, Ohio State
Bad Losses: 0
7. Ohio State
Score: 78.58
2005 Ranking: 3 2004 Ranking: 2 2003 Ranking: 7
Program Analysis: As expected, the Buckeyes dropped a bit now that the 14-0 national title season of 2003 doesn't count in rankings. The Draft Score is tied with Miami as the nation's best and the Attendance Score is third behind Michigan and Tennessee. The APR could be better and the Elite Win Score is stunningly low going 1-5 against Elite teams.
Attendance Score: 10.49
2005: 105,017 2004: 104,876 2003: 104,870
APR Score: 5
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 29
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 15
2005: Miami University, Iowa, at Minnesota, Northwestern, at Michigan, Notre Dame (Fiesta Bowl)
2004: Cincinnati, Michigan, Oklahoma State (Alamo Bowl)
2003: NC State, Bowling Green, Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue, Kansas State
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 22
2005: PK Mike Nugent, DB Dustin Fox, RB Maurice Clarett
2004: DE Will Smith, DB Chris Gamble, WR Michael Jenkins, TE Ben Hartsock, DT Tim Anderson, P D.J. Sander, DE Darrion Scott, C Alex Stepanovich, DB Will Allen, QB Craig Krenzel, WR Drew Carter, LB Robert Reynolds, OT Shane Olivea, OG Adrien Clarke
2003: DB Mike Doss, DE Kenny Peterson, LB Will Grant, LB Matt Wilhelm, DB Donnie Nickey
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 7.08
Elite Win Score: 1 2005: Notre Dame (Fiesta Bowl)
Bad Losses: 0
6. Georgia
Score: 79.06
2005 Ranking: 4 2004 Ranking: 3 2003 Ranking: 6
Program Analysis: When you win 44 games in four years, your ranking will be fantastic. Everything is rock solid across the board with great Attendance and APR Scores, an excellent Draft Score, and a great conference winning percentage. It's a razor-thin margin between being a top five team and being on just on the outside, and the difference was the Quality Win and Elite Wins Scores. One more big win (like in the Sugar Bowl last year against West Virginia) and the Dawgs would've been fifth.
Attendance Score: 9.25
2005: 92,701 2004: 82,46 2003: 92,058
APR Score: 8
Total D-I Wins from 2003-2005: 29
Quality Wins from 2003-2005: 14
2005: Boise State, South Carolina, at Georgia Tech, LSU (SEC Championship)
2004: at South Carolina, LSU, Florida, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin (Outback Bowl)
2003: at Clemson, at Tennessee, Auburn, at Georgia Tech, Purdue (Capital One Bowl)
Players Drafted Score from 2003-2005: 17
2005: DB Thomas Davis, DE David Pollack, WR Reggie Brown, LB Odell Thurman, QB David Greene, WR Fred Gibson
2004: TE Ben Watson, DB Sean Jones, DE Robert Geathers, DB Bruce Thornton
2003: DT Johnathan Sullivan, OT George Foster, LB Boss Bailey, OT Jonathan Stinchcomb, RB Musa Smith, LB Tony Gilbert, RB J.T. Wall
Conference Winning % Score from 2003-2005: 7.31
Elite Win Score: 3 2005: LSU (SEC Championship) 2004: Wisconsin (Outback Bowl) 2003: at Tennessee
Bad Losses: 0