TheDOCTORdre
05-23-2006, 03:24 PM
It's the offensively liberated Pistons vs. the reconstructed Heat in a matchup many had anticipated in the Eastern Conference finals.
Here's how these two heavyweight teams match up:
Point guard
In this corner, Jason Williams and Gary Payton. In that corner, Chauncey Billups and Lindsey Hunter.
Even under Pat Riley's no-nonsense guidance, Williams has retained a touch of his erratic, undomesticated ways. Quick shots, risky passes, and helpless defense are Williams' main problems. While his jets and streaky 3-point shooting might give Billups a slight hiccup or two, look for Billups to overwhelm Williams in the low post, on dribble penetrations, off screen/rolls, and on elementary isos.
However, since Billups had difficulty shaking Eric Snow's veteran defense in the Cleveland series, there's reason to expect that Payton could be just as pesky — even more so, because of The Glove's fading, but still considerable, skills on offense. That's why Payton will most likely get more time opposite Billups than will Williams.
Hunter, meanwhile, can run with Williams, is a marginal 3-point threat, and is the best defender at this position. Since neither Williams nor Payton are go-to scorers, Hunter's defensive ministrations will mostly serve to upset the timing of the Heats' offensive sets. But Hunter's explosive speed is also quite capable of piercing Miami's vulnerable perimeter defense and creating problems for the Heat's big men.
Advantage: Pistons (The entire series could turn here.)
Shooting guard
The starters will get most of the minutes here — Dwyane Wade and Rip Hamilton.
Young Wade is, of course, one of the most explosive scorers extant — a smaller version of LeBron James, perhaps a half-step quicker, a more earnest defender, possessed of a similarly flawed perimeter jumper, and not quite as accomplished a passer. Like James, Wade will be a handful for Hamilton to handle, and must be countered by a concerted team-wide defensive game plan.
Wade can best be contained by slowing the pace and sealing the lane.
On the other hand, Wade will have great difficulty negotiating his way through the myriad of screens that Hamilton uses to create sufficient space to launch his deadly mid-range jumpers. If left to their own devices, neither Wade nor Hamilton is capable of limiting the other's scoring opportunities.
Payton will see some time behind Wade, just as Billups occasionally backs up Hamilton. The Payton-Hamilton matchup will curtail the advantages gained by Rip's perpetual motion cuts, but will allow him to post-up G.P. with great success. At the other end, Hamilton has the length, size, and quickness to neutralize Payton.
The Heat will also play James Posey at this position — a tough defender and 3-point marksman. Posey will provide the sternest defense against both Hamilton and Billups, and his perimeter shot will limit his opponent-of-the-moment's ability to double-team Shaq and/or clog the middle against Wade.
Advantage: Heat (Miami gets an edge by a slight margin.)
Small forward
Antoine Walker vs. Tayshaun Prince could very well be a huge mismatch.
Shaquille O'Neal and the Heat are hoping to reverse their fate of last year's showdown with the Pistons. (Allen Einstein/NBAE / Getty Images)
After chasing LBJ for seven games, guarding Walker will be a picnic for Prince. Sure, occasionally one of Walker's high-flying 3-pointers will find its mark, but Detroit can live with his erratic shooting and poor judgment.
Walker is most dangerous when he can put the ball on the floor, get into the lane, and pass.
Look for Prince to put Walker's offense into a safe deposit box. At the other end, Prince (although not a very versatile scorer) can use and abuse Walker, a weak defender.
Posey plays some small forward and can keep Prince from scoring at will. Indeed, as the series progresses and Walker's shortcomings become more evident, don't be surprised if Posey gets more and more of Walker's playing time.
Hamilton doubles as Prince's primary substitute, and is susceptible to being posted up by Walker. Still, Walker's lack of defense can be fatal here too.
Advantage: Pistons (Detroit gets a big-time edge.)
Power forward
This is a good one — Udonis Haslem batting against Rasheed Wallace. Haslem is a ferocious defender, strong, quick, and savvy. But Rasheed should be able to take full advantage of his two-inch size advantage, his extraordinarily long arms, and high-release jumpers in the pivot.
Since Haslem scores most of his points off the boards, and on short jumpers opened up by opponents ganging up on Shaq in the pivot, Rasheed will have an easy time on defense.
Walker shifts over to power forward when Haslem takes a breather, and will be dismantled on both ends by Rasheed. Behind Rasheed Wallace is Antonio McDyess, a determined (if not an accomplished) defender, and a dangerous inside scorer who relies on an accurate turnaround jumper.
Haslem's defense can give McDyess a hard time, and vice versa.
But McDyess can be expected to chump Walker on offense.
In truth, Walker's offense against all defenders will be limited to his ability to knock down treys.
Advantage: Pistons (And it is a sizeable one.)
Center
It's Shaq operating against Ben Wallace, the NBA's top defender.
Wallace has the power, the lateral quickness, the willingness, and the low center of gravity to make Shaq work hard for his points. Even so, the rapidly aging O'Neal is still so big and so strong that Wallace will literally have his hands full. Look for Ben Wallace to block an occasional shot, take some flops, and also be saddled with frequent foul trouble.
The biggest contribution that Big Ben will make, however, is to be able to (barely) contain Shaq on a man-to-man basis. Only emergency double-teams will be necessary, a boon to Detroit's defensive schemes.
On the other hand, Shaq will be able to virtually ignore Wallace when the Pistons have the ball. Shaq has never been accused of playing defense, but being able to freelance in and around the paint will certainly make him more effective — but also increase the odds of his picking up extra fouls.
The backups are Alonzo Mourning and Rasheed Wallace. Zo is a blowhard who will block some shots, dunk some uncontested layups, commit overzealous fouls, and be constantly out of position on defense.
All the other players on both teams will run wide circles around the ferocious battles being waged by Mourning and Ben.
As ever, the refs will decide how dominant an inside force Shaq will be.
Advantage: Heat
The benches
Neither team has an imposing bench, with McDyess being the only key sub on either side.
But look for Hunter to be an X-factor in the series.
Pat Riley has a large edge in playoff experience over Flip Saunders, his counterpart. And nobody prepares his team any better than Riley.
In truth, Saunders' ability to cope with all the adjustments and preparation necessary to match wits with Riley is very much in doubt. It could be that the sheer experience of the Pistons' starters can overcome Saunders' deficiencies in this department; but perhaps not.
That said, the Pistons should have a large edge in individual and team defense, and in the versatility of their offense. Why? They have four starters capable of having 30-point games, to the Heat's two and a half — Shaq, Wade, and Walker.
The Pistons are also quicker, and have more effective shot blockers and rebounders.
Neither team features dependable outside shooting.
At this level of play, Detroit's extra home game will be meaningless.
The outcome likely will depend on the following factors:
Which team can avoid foul trouble, while also making their foul shots?
Which team can take better care of the ball?
Can Saunders stay abreast of Riley's between-game and in-game machinations?
How active will Shaq be, and how much will the refs let him play?
This is the pairing that basketball fans have been hoping to see all season long. It should be well worth the wait.
Here's how these two heavyweight teams match up:
Point guard
In this corner, Jason Williams and Gary Payton. In that corner, Chauncey Billups and Lindsey Hunter.
Even under Pat Riley's no-nonsense guidance, Williams has retained a touch of his erratic, undomesticated ways. Quick shots, risky passes, and helpless defense are Williams' main problems. While his jets and streaky 3-point shooting might give Billups a slight hiccup or two, look for Billups to overwhelm Williams in the low post, on dribble penetrations, off screen/rolls, and on elementary isos.
However, since Billups had difficulty shaking Eric Snow's veteran defense in the Cleveland series, there's reason to expect that Payton could be just as pesky — even more so, because of The Glove's fading, but still considerable, skills on offense. That's why Payton will most likely get more time opposite Billups than will Williams.
Hunter, meanwhile, can run with Williams, is a marginal 3-point threat, and is the best defender at this position. Since neither Williams nor Payton are go-to scorers, Hunter's defensive ministrations will mostly serve to upset the timing of the Heats' offensive sets. But Hunter's explosive speed is also quite capable of piercing Miami's vulnerable perimeter defense and creating problems for the Heat's big men.
Advantage: Pistons (The entire series could turn here.)
Shooting guard
The starters will get most of the minutes here — Dwyane Wade and Rip Hamilton.
Young Wade is, of course, one of the most explosive scorers extant — a smaller version of LeBron James, perhaps a half-step quicker, a more earnest defender, possessed of a similarly flawed perimeter jumper, and not quite as accomplished a passer. Like James, Wade will be a handful for Hamilton to handle, and must be countered by a concerted team-wide defensive game plan.
Wade can best be contained by slowing the pace and sealing the lane.
On the other hand, Wade will have great difficulty negotiating his way through the myriad of screens that Hamilton uses to create sufficient space to launch his deadly mid-range jumpers. If left to their own devices, neither Wade nor Hamilton is capable of limiting the other's scoring opportunities.
Payton will see some time behind Wade, just as Billups occasionally backs up Hamilton. The Payton-Hamilton matchup will curtail the advantages gained by Rip's perpetual motion cuts, but will allow him to post-up G.P. with great success. At the other end, Hamilton has the length, size, and quickness to neutralize Payton.
The Heat will also play James Posey at this position — a tough defender and 3-point marksman. Posey will provide the sternest defense against both Hamilton and Billups, and his perimeter shot will limit his opponent-of-the-moment's ability to double-team Shaq and/or clog the middle against Wade.
Advantage: Heat (Miami gets an edge by a slight margin.)
Small forward
Antoine Walker vs. Tayshaun Prince could very well be a huge mismatch.
Shaquille O'Neal and the Heat are hoping to reverse their fate of last year's showdown with the Pistons. (Allen Einstein/NBAE / Getty Images)
After chasing LBJ for seven games, guarding Walker will be a picnic for Prince. Sure, occasionally one of Walker's high-flying 3-pointers will find its mark, but Detroit can live with his erratic shooting and poor judgment.
Walker is most dangerous when he can put the ball on the floor, get into the lane, and pass.
Look for Prince to put Walker's offense into a safe deposit box. At the other end, Prince (although not a very versatile scorer) can use and abuse Walker, a weak defender.
Posey plays some small forward and can keep Prince from scoring at will. Indeed, as the series progresses and Walker's shortcomings become more evident, don't be surprised if Posey gets more and more of Walker's playing time.
Hamilton doubles as Prince's primary substitute, and is susceptible to being posted up by Walker. Still, Walker's lack of defense can be fatal here too.
Advantage: Pistons (Detroit gets a big-time edge.)
Power forward
This is a good one — Udonis Haslem batting against Rasheed Wallace. Haslem is a ferocious defender, strong, quick, and savvy. But Rasheed should be able to take full advantage of his two-inch size advantage, his extraordinarily long arms, and high-release jumpers in the pivot.
Since Haslem scores most of his points off the boards, and on short jumpers opened up by opponents ganging up on Shaq in the pivot, Rasheed will have an easy time on defense.
Walker shifts over to power forward when Haslem takes a breather, and will be dismantled on both ends by Rasheed. Behind Rasheed Wallace is Antonio McDyess, a determined (if not an accomplished) defender, and a dangerous inside scorer who relies on an accurate turnaround jumper.
Haslem's defense can give McDyess a hard time, and vice versa.
But McDyess can be expected to chump Walker on offense.
In truth, Walker's offense against all defenders will be limited to his ability to knock down treys.
Advantage: Pistons (And it is a sizeable one.)
Center
It's Shaq operating against Ben Wallace, the NBA's top defender.
Wallace has the power, the lateral quickness, the willingness, and the low center of gravity to make Shaq work hard for his points. Even so, the rapidly aging O'Neal is still so big and so strong that Wallace will literally have his hands full. Look for Ben Wallace to block an occasional shot, take some flops, and also be saddled with frequent foul trouble.
The biggest contribution that Big Ben will make, however, is to be able to (barely) contain Shaq on a man-to-man basis. Only emergency double-teams will be necessary, a boon to Detroit's defensive schemes.
On the other hand, Shaq will be able to virtually ignore Wallace when the Pistons have the ball. Shaq has never been accused of playing defense, but being able to freelance in and around the paint will certainly make him more effective — but also increase the odds of his picking up extra fouls.
The backups are Alonzo Mourning and Rasheed Wallace. Zo is a blowhard who will block some shots, dunk some uncontested layups, commit overzealous fouls, and be constantly out of position on defense.
All the other players on both teams will run wide circles around the ferocious battles being waged by Mourning and Ben.
As ever, the refs will decide how dominant an inside force Shaq will be.
Advantage: Heat
The benches
Neither team has an imposing bench, with McDyess being the only key sub on either side.
But look for Hunter to be an X-factor in the series.
Pat Riley has a large edge in playoff experience over Flip Saunders, his counterpart. And nobody prepares his team any better than Riley.
In truth, Saunders' ability to cope with all the adjustments and preparation necessary to match wits with Riley is very much in doubt. It could be that the sheer experience of the Pistons' starters can overcome Saunders' deficiencies in this department; but perhaps not.
That said, the Pistons should have a large edge in individual and team defense, and in the versatility of their offense. Why? They have four starters capable of having 30-point games, to the Heat's two and a half — Shaq, Wade, and Walker.
The Pistons are also quicker, and have more effective shot blockers and rebounders.
Neither team features dependable outside shooting.
At this level of play, Detroit's extra home game will be meaningless.
The outcome likely will depend on the following factors:
Which team can avoid foul trouble, while also making their foul shots?
Which team can take better care of the ball?
Can Saunders stay abreast of Riley's between-game and in-game machinations?
How active will Shaq be, and how much will the refs let him play?
This is the pairing that basketball fans have been hoping to see all season long. It should be well worth the wait.