About the upcoming realignment...

[VWG]

With Matthew's prediction on the top number moving upwards to around 945 to 950 students for 3A cutoff, I am beginning to wonder about something.
How many teams would be in danger of moving up to 4A?
Maybe two or three at the most?
If the bottom number of 3A moves up as well then there could be a ton of schools drop down. Comanche, Breckenridge, Pottsboro, Pilot Point, Merkel, etc.....
It seems out of balance. There would be a ton more teams move out of 3A than into 3A.
Help me out here.

[football4life]

Yea that doesn't seem like it would work. I'm not sure, but on another thread about realignment on here someone said something about the possibility that the the top of the cut-off would rise as predicted, but that the bottom of the cut-off would stay the same or close to. Not sure, correct me if im wrong.

[Matthew328]

the bottom number may not change quite as dramatically as the top...UIL wants to get as close to 2-1 as possible...so if they have the top at 950 they will try and get the bottom as close to 475 as possible...3A's ratio may be out of whack along with 2A though...it usually is...

by the way if anyone wants to know what a school turned in ask me and I'll see if we have it..

[Matthew328]

also remember if the # rises to 950 ish there will be a LOT of 4A schools come down.....here is a list that we have remember there could be many more than this that we havent tracked down yet...

Andrews 902
Taylor 881
Athens 947
Pleasanton 944.5
Medina Valley 908.5
FW Diamond Hill 903
Mabank 898
Clint 480 (likely won't be allowed to opt up)
Lovejoy (new school) 604

[GreenMonster]

Originally posted by Matthew328
also remember if the # rises to 950 ish there will be a LOT of 4A schools come down.....here is a list that we have remember there could be many more than this that we havent tracked down yet...

Andrews 902
Taylor 881
Athens 947
Pleasanton 944.5
Medina Valley 908.5
FW Diamond Hill 903
Mabank 898
Clint 480 (likely won't be allowed to opt up)
Lovejoy (new school) 604

I believe that Burkburnett turned in a number somewhere in the 940's which could drop them down into the IP, Graham, Vernon, Hirschi and whoever (Breck may drop down) district. It would make things very interesting here in the greater Wichita Falls area. Burk already has established rivalries with IP, Vernon, and Hirschi.

[rockdale80]

This may sound like a weird question, but how do you turn in .5 of a student?

[Matthew328]

because there is a formula used.....not sure of the exact way the # is calculated but I know its a mathmatical equation....

[Adidas410s]

has Clint always played up in 4A with those numbers? I guess the reason they do is because of cost to travel if they were down in 3A but wow...480 kids...that's not even fair

[Adidas410s]

Originally posted by GreenMonster
I believe that Burkburnett turned in a number somewhere in the 940's which could drop them down into the IP, Graham, Vernon, Hirschi and whoever (Breck may drop down) district. It would make things very interesting here in the greater Wichita Falls area. Burk already has established rivalries with IP, Vernon, and Hirschi.

What is scary is that my freshman year in high school Breck was around 700 students and in the Division 1 bracket after they moved out of Wylie's district (after the 97-98 year). That just blows my mind that they are that far down...then again having worked at their school for a semester in 2001, it's not hard to see why.

[Matthew328]

Burkburnett turned in 947.5 I missed them...LOL

Clint has always had small #'s but they opened up a third high school in Clint and that apparently has cut enrollment from the low 800's to the # they turned in..

[Gobbla2001]

Isn't it like an average daily attendance? I guess it's rounded up or down to the nearest fifth or something...

[rockdale80]

Guess it would be too easy to just count how many students are enrolled there. :thinking:

[Matthew328]

enrollment does fluctuate..........and 1 or 2 students can make a difference...

[Gobbla2001]

Originally posted by rockdale80
Guess it would be too easy to just count how many students are enrolled there. :thinking:

Yah, but some schools have a problem with kids enrolling and leaving... you'd think it wouldn't be that big of a difference though...

Oh well... the first year of D1/D2 in 3A we had 744.5 or something... been a solid number ever since...

[big daddy russ]

I was told once, and if I remember correctly some schools enroll part-time students, i.e. students who only have two classes a day or are scheduled to graduate in December. I forget exactly how it's tallied, but like Matt said it is a formula they use.

[VWG]

Can't wait until February.
When is the actual date of realignment?
Matt- you know how many kids these 4A schools turned in?
Mineral Wells
San Angelo Lake View
Big Spring
Pampa
Dumas

[Adidas410s]

Originally posted by Gobbla2001
Yah, but some schools have a problem with kids enrolling and leaving... you'd think it wouldn't be that big of a difference though...

Oh well... the first year of D1/D2 in 3A we had 744.5 or something... been a solid number ever since...

With kids coming and going...it plays a big difference in some areas....like Wylie. A big reason for their spike of almost 100 kids the last two years isn't because of any growth taking place in Abilene, though we did open a Cracker Barrel this week! :D , it's because of Dyess AFB. I talked to Coach Sandifer's wife (a long-time counselor at the HS) a while back and she mentioned that we started the year over 900 and it was due to a big increase in military kids. If the Iraq war ends in the near future, many people will likely get transferred elsewhere and then Wylie would be back to 820-850 range. So even if they do move up...don't expect it to be for more than 1 or 2 allignments.

[Sweetwater Red]

February 6th

[Matthew328]

Mineral Wells 1040
Pampa 1052
Dumas 1124


Nothing from Big Spring or San Angelo Lakeview

[olddawggreen]

Originally posted by rockdale80
This may sound like a weird question, but how do you turn in .5 of a student?


Your average .5 student;
http://img226.imageshack.us/img226/5225/pretty20smile8sh.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[wos fan1]

:eek: :D

[Hupernikomen]

Originally posted by rockdale80
This may sound like a weird question, but how do you turn in .5 of a student?

Couple situations were a student can count as a .5! If a student has certain disabilities that require them to receive services off-campus they will could count as .5 I am sure there is another scenario or two just can't remember them right now..

[Mustangpride09]

Originally posted by football4life
Yea that doesn't seem like it would work. I'm not sure, but on another thread about realignment on here someone said something about the possibility that the the top of the cut-off would rise as predicted, but that the bottom of the cut-off would stay the same or close to. Not sure, correct me if im wrong.

What is abilene Wylie's enrollment?

[Matthew328]

916

[Mustangpride09]

if the cut off isnt changed wont they go 4A then?

[sinton66]

Matthew, could you just post the ones you do have? Might save time.

[wos fan1]

Originally posted by Mustangpride09
if the cut off isnt changed wont they go 4A then? yep!

[Mustangpride09]

What is brownwood's enrollment mathew?

[wos fan1]

977.5

[Matthew328]

trust me the cut off will change....

here are the 3A's that I have..

Abilene Wylie 916
Little Elm 1010
Lovejoy 604
Manor 992
Quinlan Ford 828
West Columbia 833.5
WF Hirschi 892
Wills Point 808
Huffman Hargrave 991
Lindale 990
Barbers Hill 963
Palestine 908
Bandera 858
Zapata 810
West Orange-Stark 806
Dalhart 422
Levelland 821
Muleshoe 371.5
Seminole 625
Clyde 506
Merkel 409
Snyder 674
Gainesville 827
Pottsboro 407
Sanger 727
Bridgeport 669
Decatur 871.5
Lake Worth 669
Glen Rose 512
Whitney 450
Farmersville 407
Van Alstyne 419
Mount Vernon 463
Eustace 475
Kemp 483
Sabine 416.5
Mineola 440
Daingerfield 406
Jefferson 389.5
New Boston 414
Brownsboro 845
Bullard 471
Carthage 797
Tatum 394
Gatesville 849
Lorena 484
Fairfield 517
Marlin 378
Cameron Yoe 452
LaGrange 581
Rice Consolidated 359
Hempstead 394
Crockett 468
Buna 413
Jasper 816
Kirbyville 452.5
Silsbee 829
Cleveland Tarkington 588
Anahuac 402
Needville 794
Palacios 476
Sweeny 652
Wharton 688
Edna 419
Halletsville 379
Luling 481
Brady 400
Ingram Moore 450
Liberty Hill 599
Lytle 440
Somerset 889
South San Antonio West 611
Devine 577
Persall 620
Aransas Pass 536
Goliad 434
Sinton 585
CC West Oso 492
Falfurrias 519
Orange Grove 451
Lyford 433
Port Isabel 702
Progresso 485
Rio Hondo 643

2A's who turned in high #'s

Argyle 472
Prosper 504
Celina 429

[injuredinmelee]

Originally posted by Matthew328
also remember if the # rises to 950 ish there will be a LOT of 4A schools come down.....here is a list that we have remember there could be many more than this that we havent tracked down yet...

Andrews 902
Taylor 881
Athens 947
Pleasanton 944.5
Medina Valley 908.5
FW Diamond Hill 903
Mabank 898
Clint 480 (likely won't be allowed to opt up)
Lovejoy (new school) 604

how many of those schools are actually title contenders though??? I see one that I might worry about and that is Athens.

[Matthew328]

Mabank will be pretty good next year.....Athens was young and took some lumps....if they went 3A they'd improve big time..Taylor is very interesting...4A playoff team last year.....

what'll be interesting if the # goes any higher...then you start to see some bigger names possibly drop....ie Burnet, Everman...

[Old Tiger]

Taylor has a helluva coach, when he gets his players the way he wants them they could be very dangerous.

[Whsdogs]

Originally posted by Matthew328
Mabank will be pretty good next year.....Athens was young and took some lumps....if they went 3A they'd improve big time..Taylor is very interesting...4A playoff team last year.....

what'll be interesting if the # goes any higher...then you start to see some bigger names possibly drop....ie Burnet, Everman...

if burnet dropped that would be one awesome few weeks of playoffs...can u imagine..gainesville, cuero, burnet, everman, abilene wylie, sweetwater,maybe brownwood...thats a ton of talented teams and could make for an interesting year next year cant wait to see what happens...the big 3 could now be the new Big 10 lol

[VWG]

Here is my argument.... on this list there are 5 teams that I see that would be moving up, but 22 teams that would possibly be moving down to 2A. This would be if the numbers would run at 950 to 450.
It seems that they wouldn't be able to balance out 3A, especially with trying to eliminate 5 team districts.
Travel budgets in Region I would go crazy again.

[JustAFan]

A couple of ways to come up with 0.5 student. First (as in every year) if a student only attends half-days and the school does not get full funding for that student. For example, if a student has 3 out of 7 classes. the other one for this year is if the student is a Hurricane Katrina or Hurricane Rita evacuee, they count as 0.5

[olddawggreen]

Originally posted by Whsdogs
if burnet dropped that would be one awesome few weeks of playoffs...can u imagine..gainesville, cuero, burnet, everman, abilene wylie, sweetwater,maybe brownwood...thats a ton of talented teams and could make for an interesting year next year cant wait to see what happens...the big 3 could now be the new Big 10 lol

It would be like old times again!:) ahhhh the memories:cheerl:

[gtownpoke]

I was told the .5 students were the special ed kids. it was a school administrator that told me and hopefully they know what they are talking about

[zeus63]

I thought the enrollment came off an average of a certain number of days? Is that right? If so, that would explain the .5

[JasperDog94]

Originally posted by gtownpoke
I was told the .5 students were the special ed kids. it was a school administrator that told me and hopefully they know what they are talking about Please tell me you're joking.

[wos fan1]

Don't think that is correct.

[JTate]

Last Four UIL Enrollment Numbers:

2004-06:
Class 5A: 1,925 and above
Class 4A: 900 to 1,924
Class 3A: 389 to 899
Class 2A: 190 to 389
Class A: 189 and below
Six-man: 99.9 and below

2002-04:
Class 5A: 1,910 and above
Class 4A: 900 to 1,909
Class 3A: 345 to 899
Class 2A: 180 to 344
Class A: 179 and below
Six-man: 94.5 and below

The 2000-2002:
Class 5A: 1,865 and above.
Class 4A: 845 to 1,864.
Class 3A: 345 to 844.
Class 2A: 170 to 344.
Class 1A: 169 and below.

The 1998-2000:
Class 5A: 1,780 and above.
Class 4A: 780 to 1,779.
Class 3A: 345 to 779.
Class 2A: 160 to 344.
Class 1A: 159 and below.

Last year was the first time over several alignments that an attempt was made to lower the percentage rate between the Low & High numbers in AAA. I am wondering if that trend needs to continue or can it work as is. It seems to me that the success Tatum has had says the small AAA can play with the big AAA's.
Or would you say that Tatum is just the exception to the rule so to speak.

[GreenMonster]

Originally posted by zeus63
I thought the enrollment came off an average of a certain number of days? Is that right? If so, that would explain the .5

Incorrect. It is the total number of kids ENROLLED, not number of kids in attendence. UIL picks a certain day and however many kids are Enrolled in the ISD on that day that is the number that the school sends to the UIL.

[VWG]

Originally posted by JTate
Last Four UIL Enrollment Numbers:

2004-06:
Class 5A: 1,925 and above
Class 4A: 900 to 1,924
Class 3A: 389 to 899
Class 2A: 190 to 389
Class A: 189 and below
Six-man: 99.9 and below

2002-04:
Class 5A: 1,910 and above
Class 4A: 900 to 1,909
Class 3A: 345 to 899
Class 2A: 180 to 344
Class A: 179 and below
Six-man: 94.5 and below

The 2000-2002:
Class 5A: 1,865 and above.
Class 4A: 845 to 1,864.
Class 3A: 345 to 844.
Class 2A: 170 to 344.
Class 1A: 169 and below.

The 1998-2000:
Class 5A: 1,780 and above.
Class 4A: 780 to 1,779.
Class 3A: 345 to 779.
Class 2A: 160 to 344.
Class 1A: 159 and below.

Last year was the first time over several alignments that an attempt was made to lower the percentage rate between the Low & High numbers in AAA. I am wondering if that trend needs to continue or can it work as is. It seems to me that the success Tatum has had says the small AAA can play with the big AAA's.
Or would you say that Tatum is just the exception to the rule so to speak.

Tatum is just the exception. If you were to look at a percentage of playoff teams and their enrollments I would take a guess that the smaller enrollment schools struggled.
Anybody notice how 1A numbers from 1998 until present jumped an exact number of 10 kids every 2 years. 159 to 169 to 179..... etc...

[WinJuanSoon09]

Another thing to consider is that they are now putting four teams in the playoffs in 5a. If they want more teams and want to make all districts have 8 teams. UIL will need as many teams as possible to be in 5a so they might even drop the numbers or stay the same. It could be possible that it goes back to 1,900. Which would cause the other classifiactions to either have to go down or stay the same. The last time realignment came. They were trying to make 4a larger becuase it had the least amount of schools. Also if they droped the numbers for 3a it even some of the numbers up a little more. Where some small schools wouldn't have to face a large school with double the enrollment.

[vet93]

I was trying to say the same thing earlier in response to Matt's assumption that the numbers would rise to accomodate the increase to the two tier system for 1A. I believe the driving force will be from the other end with the UIL trying to enlarge 5A to make room for 4 playoff teams, this will likely lower the bottom end of 5a a little which could cause the ripple effect in the lower classes thus offsetting any major movement that would have resulted from the expansion of 1A.



Originally posted by WinJuanSoon09
Another thing to consider is that they are now putting four teams in the playoffs in 5a. If they want more teams and want to make all districts have 8 teams. UIL will need as many teams as possible to be in 5a so they might even drop the numbers or stay the same. It could be possible that it goes back to 1,900. Which would cause the other classifiactions to either have to go down or stay the same. The last time realignment came. They were trying to make 4a larger becuase it had the least amount of schools. Also if they droped the numbers for 3a it even some of the numbers up a little more. Where some small schools wouldn't have to face a large school with double the enrollment.

[Matthew328]

Well so far my assumption looks like it could be true....over 900 reporting and all the "swing" schools....

5A/4A cut will be 1976 a 50 student rise....guess what a 50 student rise in 3A would be?? 950...

http://texasprepxtra.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=490531

hmmmmmmm

[Matthew328]

I forgot a new school..Frisco's new HS is opening up as a 3A school...

[VWG]

Are you saying that 3A will have the biggest disparity between the top and bottom???
If the top goes up for 3A, what about the bottom number?

[Matthew328]

It'll go up but in proportion to what the top goes up....after 5A its more of a guessing game because the other classes don't have a hard cap like 5A.....5A has a limit if 245 schools.....4A can fluctuate between 210 and 230.....3A between 180 and 200 etc

[Matthew328]

Here are some other schools we now have
Frisco Liberty 801
Huffman 989 (updated we heard from the coach)
Lindale 975 (updated we heard from the coach)
Barbers Hill 963
Palestine 907.5

Lockhart, Robstown and Tuloso-Midway are dangerously close to the cut....we haven't heard back from those 4 schools but they could all drop...these are other schools that we think may drop besides the ones I listed earlier

San Elizario 980
Brownwood 977.5
Rockport-Fulton 976
Lubbock Estacado 975
Fredricksburg 971.5
Elgin 960

[pantherpop]

What do these numbers actually represent? Are they present day 9-12 grade or the number that would make more sense 8th grade thru 11 grade since this will affect the next 2 years.

[wos fan1]

9th thru 12th

[pantherpop]

Originally posted by wos fan1
9th thru 12th

Why would the number of graduates that you have this year have any effect on what numbers you will have the next 2 years. Just makes more sense to me that you wouldn't even count the 12th graders.

[Matthew328]

that's how the UIL does it...

[SintonFan]

Originally posted by Matthew328
Well so far my assumption looks like it could be true....over 900 reporting and all the "swing" schools....

5A/4A cut will be 1976 a 50 student rise....guess what a 50 student rise in 3A would be?? 950...

http://texasprepxtra.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=490531

hmmmmmmm
.
Matthew328, have yall finished the rest of that realignment piece?
I'd love to read what yall wrote for 3A.:)

[etbu]

thanks Matthew good info.

[Matthew328]

still gathering info...stay tuned...

[VWG]

Originally posted by Matthew328
Here are some other schools we now have
Frisco Liberty 801
Huffman 989 (updated we heard from the coach)
Lindale 975 (updated we heard from the coach)
Barbers Hill 963
Palestine 907.5

Lockhart, Robstown and Tuloso-Midway are dangerously close to the cut....we haven't heard back from those 4 schools but they could all drop...these are other schools that we think may drop besides the ones I listed earlier

San Elizario 980
Brownwood 977.5
Rockport-Fulton 976
Lubbock Estacado 975
Fredricksburg 971.5
Elgin 960

The Amarillo paper a few weeks back reported Lubbock Estacado turned in 932. Where are you getting 975?

[3afan]

FYI ::

5A
Conroe Wagner ?
San Antonio Stevens Falcons
Katy Morton Ranch Mavericks
The Woodlands College Park Cavaliers
Humble Atacosita Eagles

4A
Eagle Pass Winn Mavericks
Katy Seven Lakes Spartans
Buda Lehman Lobos
Schertz Steele Knights
Denton Guyer Wildcats
Frisco Liberty ?
Saginaw High Rough Riders
McKinney Boyd Broncos
Rockwall Heath Hawks

[Matthew328]

we got the info from the Lubbock ISD AD...we call each and every school ourselves.....papers have been wrong many times..just ask Highland Park about 2004