Top 25 Strength of Schedule

[3afan]

Following is Matt's Top 25, resorted based on each team's strength of schedule (to date) ::

ORIGINAL_RANK TEAM (RECORD) OPPONENTS_RECORD .PCT
9. West Columbia (6-1) 43-29 .597
23. Decatur (6-2) 43-35 .551
13. Dallas Madison (6-1) 39-32 .549
5. Sinton (8-0) 41-34 .547
16. Marlin (7-1) 40-34 .541
2. West Orange-Stark (7-0) 32-28 .533
14. Bellville (7-1) 40-35 .533
3. Abilene Wylie (7-1) 43-38 .531
6. Wimberley (8-0) 41-38 .519
11. Liberty Hill (7-1) 40-39 .506
7. Barbers Hill (7-0) 35-35 .500
19. Kaufman (6-1) 39-41 .488
21. Kennedale (7-1) 33-35 .485
1. Cuero (7-0) 35-39 .473
12. Tatum (7-0) 36-42 .462
25. Bridge City (6-0) 17-20 .459
8. Cameron Yoe (8-0) 35-45 .438
4. Gainesville (7-0) 31-40 .437
24. Crockett (6-1) 32-43 .427
22. Canyon (7-1) 34-48 .414
20. Giddings (7-1) 32-47 .405
10. Sweetwater (8-1) 32-51 .386
15. Snyder (8-1) 31-52 .373
17. Texarkana Liberty-Eylau (6-1) 24-47 .338
18. Gilmer (8-1) 25-55 .313

What does this mean? Heck, who knows .... draw your own conclusions.

[Old Cardinal]

That may be interesting data....If you took the list of Strongest Districts to weakest Districts(via Massey Poll, or any other); then took the recipical(divide into one) and multiply against the win/loss percentages that would correct for wins against weak and strong areas of the state. It would be just data; but would correct somewhat for spurious accuracy...Like I say its been 45 years since I took an undergrad Statistics course.

[sweetwater07]

Originally posted by Old Cardinal
That may be interesting data....If you took the list of Strongest Districts to weakest Districts(via Massey Poll, or any other); then took the recipical(divide into one) and multiply against the win/loss percentages that would correct for wins against weak and strong areas of the state. It would be just data; but would correct somewhat for spurious accuracy...Like I say its been 45 years since I took an undergrad Statistics course.


our schedule is crap........until district we play a bunch of blowoff teams minus greenwood..........i wish jackson would grow a pair and get a schedule like wylie's for instance.....play some good 4A teams and get some good practice in for district.......

[Rainman]

It is somewhat useful in looking at things, but no team should be penalized for their shedule strength particularly by wins and losses.
BH pick one of their hardest non-district shedules in years when they set up this schedule a couple years back.
Anahuac - Rivalry
Dickinson- Unconsistant 4A with talent
Vidor- An improving team in 4A
Diboll- Coming off of some very good years
Columbia- Another strong team playoff bound
This looked good until Diboll had an off year and the game against Columbia was cancelled.
And we are placed in districts with no option on our opponents.
Strength of Schedule is hard to take at some levels beacuase your opponents may have played very weak teams to get wins (i.e. -Tarkington).

[SwtwtrMstngs04]

the reason we have that pre-district schedule we did was because the last realignment those were all very very good teams. i think 4 out of 5 of our pre district made playoffs last season. so calm down we will get a new one next season.

[jakarta101]

who all is on West Columbia's schedule?

[3afan]

Originally posted by SwtwtrMstngs04
the reason we have that pre-district schedule we did was because the last realignment those were all very very good teams. i think 4 out of 5 of our pre district made playoffs last season. so calm down we will get a new one next season.

i believe that happens to lots of teams ... when/if your opponents turn bad in the 2nd year of the 2 year schedule cycle you can't control it

[BTEXDAD]

Originally posted by Old Cardinal
That may be interesting data....If you took the list of Strongest Districts to weakest Districts(via Massey Poll, or any other); then took the recipical(divide into one) and multiply against the win/loss percentages that would correct for wins against weak and strong areas of the state. It would be just data; but would correct somewhat for spurious accuracy...Like I say its been 45 years since I took an undergrad Statistics course.

Old Card, I went to a graduation ceremony at A&M couple years ago. They naturally were giving out lots of diplomas in various fields. Also gave out some doctorate degrees, three of which were in statistics. My thought at the time was "what does someone do with a doctorate in statistics."
Now I realize that you can use it to put up some interesting and thought provoking stats on 3a downlow.
Thanks for interesting thread and congratulations on your degree Dr. 3afan.

Also, I'm not knowledgeable enough on stats to know if Old Cardinal's thoughts on how to make the stats even more accurate would be helpful, but you two put your heads together and we'll await the results.

It HONESTLY is an interesting thread.





3afan

[Adidas410s]

it must be noted that this is not saying that Matt's top 25 teams have the top 25 hardest schedules. It is just showing using opponents W/L% as a point of reference. It is quite possible that there are other teams that potentially have harder schedules than these schools.

and this ladies and gentlemen is my 1000th post...it only took 4 1/2 years...but I still pulled it out!

[3afan]

http://www.texasfootballratings.com/20053AStrengthofSchedule.html

[Whiskey Tough]

i would like to see that poll show the classification of those teams which are 3A, 4A and 2A. there is a big difference in an 8-2 2A team vs. a 5-5 4A.

[Old Cardinal]

Speaking earlier about Stats, Danny Ozark summed it all up one time when he said, " One half of the game is 90% mental." :D

[NateDawg39]

I was nervous win coach Story showed us our new schedule last year. Decatur VS>Burkburnett> Dunbar>Gainesville>Abilene Wylie>Graham>and of course we had two good opponents in district...Little Elm and Bridgeport

[Paratrooper]

Originally posted by 3afan
Following is Matt's Top 25, resorted based on each team's strength of schedule (to date) ::

ORIGINAL_RANK TEAM (RECORD) OPPONENTS_RECORD .PCT
9. West Columbia (6-1) 43-29 .597
23. Decatur (6-2) 43-35 .551
13. Dallas Madison (6-1) 39-32 .549
5. Sinton (8-0) 41-34 .547
16. Marlin (7-1) 40-34 .541
2. West Orange-Stark (7-0) 32-28 .533
14. Bellville (7-1) 40-35 .533
3. Abilene Wylie (7-1) 43-38 .531
6. Wimberley (8-0) 41-38 .519
11. Liberty Hill (7-1) 40-39 .506
7. Barbers Hill (7-0) 35-35 .500
19. Kaufman (6-1) 39-41 .488
21. Kennedale (7-1) 33-35 .485
1. Cuero (7-0) 35-39 .473
12. Tatum (7-0) 36-42 .462
25. Bridge City (6-0) 17-20 .459
8. Cameron Yoe (8-0) 35-45 .438
4. Gainesville (7-0) 31-40 .437
24. Crockett (6-1) 32-43 .427
22. Canyon (7-1) 34-48 .414
20. Giddings (7-1) 32-47 .405
10. Sweetwater (8-1) 32-51 .386
15. Snyder (8-1) 31-52 .373
17. Texarkana Liberty-Eylau (6-1) 24-47 .338
18. Gilmer (8-1) 25-55 .313

What does this mean? Heck, who knows .... draw your own conclusions.

I like your analysis, but don't know if it flies because some of these teams have played 4A schools, while some have played 2A schools. The difference in a 5-5 4A school is much different than a 5-5 2A school.

[nexfan]

Originally posted by jakarta101
who all is on West Columbia's schedule?

Yoakum
Brazosport -4A
Lamar Consolidated -4a
Hempstead
Barbers Hill
Stafford
Wharton
Sweeny
Palacios
Needville

[Paratrooper]

Originally posted by Whiskey Tough
i would like to see that poll show the classification of those teams which are 3A, 4A and 2A. there is a big difference in an 8-2 2A team vs. a 5-5 4A.

Sorry Whiskey Tough, we had about the same post on this issue, I just failed to read them all......lol. Great minds think alike.....LOL:D

[lostaussie]

i do not put a lot of faith in schedule strength. if you can play, you can play. case in point last year. in non district we had d'field. paris and pleasant grove, who had all been heavy hitters in years past. last year they happened to be weaker. we rolled through non-district and kept hearing how weak our schedule was. as far as district play i will never down a team to much. you can not help who the uil put you in district with. playing good teams may make you better, but playing bad teams certainly does not make you bad.

[Whiskey Tough]

you're exactly right paratrooper. some of these 3A schools love to schedule pathetic preseason teams to help their stats and records. thats exactly the reason breckinridge was ranked 1 several times in the late 90's.

[Leopards,class of 75]

Originally posted by Adidas410s
it must be noted that this is not saying that Matt's top 25 teams have the top 25 hardest schedules. It is just showing using opponents W/L% as a point of reference. It is quite possible that there are other teams that potentially have harder schedules than these schools.

and this ladies and gentlemen is my 1000th post...it only took 4 1/2 years...but I still pulled it out! Congradulation on your 1000 post! Keep up the good work Adidas410