Div I and Div II from someone who has seen a lot of these teams play in 2002

[Old Cardinal]

Having seen many of these teams actually play during 2002 season I would like to submit a poll based on evaluating the returning players for 2003,in Region III....DIVISION I #1 Jasper #2 Bridge City #3 Navasota #4 Cleveland #5 Elgin #6 Mexia #7 Gatesville I listed only seven because Div. I, has less teams competeing for the Region Title.....In Division II- #1 Liberty #2 Newton #3 Bellville #4 Marlin #5 Hamshire-Fannett #6 Barbers Hill #7 Kirbyville #8 La Grange #9 Fairfield #10 Orangefield...A lot rides on discipline for Liberty, Jasper and Cleveland-they have the talent, the question is what percentage- of-efficiency will they utilize their talent in teamwork endeavors?

<small>[ June 17, 2003, 07:48 AM: Message edited by: Old Cardinal ]</small>

[RBARKER]

Well we are a long way away but according to your rankings that would put Barbers Hill in 3rd place in district 22-3A. That is highly unlikely BH will not give up the district title that easy. I have watched the teams play last year as well and Cleveland has a lot of work to do before they take the Eagles. Liberty on the other hand will have a good team this year and like you said they will have to be disciplined in order to succeed. Liberty has a good chance of dethroning my Eagles this year, we play them at their house and Liberty always plays us well. Don’t count BH out yet, they are the four-time District 22-3A Champs!!!! Go Eagles

[rholl]

I'm not going to rank these in any particular order but here are a few thoughts....Kennedale....sure they lost a few players but they are bringing a few good ones back also.....they beat Everman last yr and even if some say it was Evermans worst game of the year...it was still a great game from Kennedale. Monahans....I think they have some terrific young talent coming up..they might not be quite ready...but they could make some noise....seems like a soph. QB from last yr was the one that I was most impressed with...but I might be getting confused. I'll leave my thoughts on Forney and Burnet alone for right now...someone else can fill us in on those!

[Old Cardinal]

To RBarker...I would rate 22-A in the following order- #1 Liberty # 2 Barbers Hill #3 Cleveland..That is why Cleveland is rated much lower on the Division I listing. Both Liberty and Barbers Hill should be real tough hombres in the insuing Bracket play. You are right, Barbers Hill might be really ready by Bracket play to upset a lot of folks. You and I both know that Liberty is loaded; but possibly unpredictable in Post season, especially. On the other hand, Barbers Hill would have done well last year, had Cleveland made the Division I representative and thus BH would have easily romped on Bellville. I am basing that on the ease Bridge City finished off Liberty and Elgin, while Bellville barely beat Liberty and lost to Elgin. Bridge City was a two TD better team than BH and at least a Four TD better team than Bellville. There is a good chance that Barbers Hill would have been the Division II State Champions, had they been able to play Bellville and Bandera. I would not be surprised to see BH win over Liberty but I will stick with my prediction, based on raw talent.

[RBARKER]

Old Card, Sounds like a pretty fare assesment to me of district 22-3A. Whats your toughts on district 21? Looks like Bridge City is in the Drivers seat again this year with a pretty good chance to go to the reg III finals. BH will open the season with AHS and follow with HF which I believe should be your 2nd and 3rd place teams this year. I don't know what hapened to HF last year after beating BH in a dog fight they seemed to loose intrest.

[BH_146]

Old Cardinal, I have to agree with RBarker on a couple of points in terms of teams in our district. I do not think that Cleveland deserves any where near the ranking you are giving them. They lost both of their quarterbacks and most of their offesive linemen. They lost 14 seniors while only retaining 15 underclassmen. They do have a very good all-purpose back returning. But, if they aren't successful in replacing the offensive line, then he isn't going to be as successful. As far as Liberty, they should be considered one of the front runners for the district championship. But, I still think they should be fall behind the distict champs. By the last regular season game, Barbers Hill suited out 15 Juniors, 5 Sophmores(4 started) and 1 Freshmen quarterback ( who rused for 68 yards, 2 TDs and completed his only pass for 17 yds). Combine them with a 10-0 J.V. squad, I think that BH will do just fine. I don't know about Liberty's depth. Surely they aren't counting too much on a J.V. squad that was defeated 27-0 by BH. Perhaps someone could fill us in Liberty's depth.

The top 3 finishers in District 22-3A, should be among BH, Liberty, Coldspring and Cleveland. They key for Cleveland may be having to travel to Coldspring and get a win. Also, they are once again going to have to survive a tough pre-district schedule.

[Old Cardinal]

We really are not that far apart in our assessment of 22-3A...I see 21-3A as follows: #1 Bridge City #2 Hamshire-Fannett #3 Orangefield #4 Hardin #5 Buna #6 Anahuac #7 Hardin-Jefferson #8 Kountze...I looked at Matts list with BC first and Anahuac second, and the rest. It's obvious that he has never seen any of these teams play. BH_146, why don't you volunteer to do Region III, you are well respected by your peers, and you make a lot of the ballgames.....OF, still has their fine QB and Buna has a lot of talent, for once. Bridge City will be vunerable, only at the first of the year-their 9th grade undefeated team could have beat a number of the District Varsity teams this past year...As Soph.'s they have extra talent and size, but will be prone to make mistakes; however as Juniors in 2004 they should be a bonafied contender for the State Crown. I think Jon Landry, will be the best back in the Region by mid season......On Anahuac, when you(BH) meet them at the first of the season, they may give you a ballgame; however, by the time Bridge City plays them, they are all stove up; not being used to 3A level play. They were really overrun by Bridge City towards the end of the season-I don't see any reason for a difference this year, they are a good 2A level program, who is out of their comfort zone.....On Cleveland, they have one of the best Coaches around; if he can turn the talent into a team they will be better this season-that's why I ranked them on down the line for the Division I bracket performance.

<small>[ June 17, 2003, 05:17 PM: Message edited by: Old Cardinal ]</small>

[Matthew328]

I love how Old Card tries to be subtle in ripping my picks... thought I proved last year I knew region 3 pretty darn well...ohhh well...first off...I stand by my 21-3A picks...Anahuac is a solid choice for 2nd place...they played everyone with exception of BC and H-F tough...going 3-4...they have 22 letterman back which is a LOT for a school their size...plus a load of regulars back..Buna lost to Anahuac last season and they have no key player back...Orangefield does have a good QB back but how will he do without a great back like Sauceda? Last year Anahuac did get somewhat run down...but I don't think the same thing will happen this year..Anahuac is much deeper than one would think...and as for your asessment of Liberty..they'll be good..but they are not in the league of Marlin, Bellville, or Newton or Fairfield...yes they played Bellville close..but comparing scores doesn't hold much water every game should be looked at on an indvidual basis not by how one team did against another etc when you compare scores you can manipulate the numbers a lot of the time to make your own point lets look at 3 examples..with your logic Everman woulda beat Jasper by 39 points last year since Everman beat Burnet by 21 and Burnet beat Jasper by 18..do you really think that woulda happened?? Also if you have LaGrange that low on your list there is definatley something wrong...once again using your logic LaGrange would have beaten Liberty by 38 points last year...since Coldspring beat Liberty by 1 and LaGrange beat Coldspring by 37...or here is another one..this one may hit close to home..if Marlin and Bridge City would have played Marlin woulda beat BC by 5 TD's since Marlin beat Newton by 2 TD's and Newton beat BC by 3 TD's...and that means BC would have lost to Bellville by 6 TD's since Bellville beat Marlin by a TD....see what I mean? You can manipulate the numbers anyway you want..thus comparing scores doesn't always hold water..

<small>[ June 17, 2003, 07:05 PM: Message edited by: Matthew328 ]</small>

[bccards]

Matthew, Don't worry about Old Cardinal. We all here in Bridge City aren't like him.. He lives in Orange, mind you :) lol.. I personally think you do a great job on covering Region III. There's one in every town though, right?? lol. I do enjoy reading OC's comments on most subjects though, but some I disagree with, but keep it to myself. Thanks for doing Region III !!

[PPHSfan]

1. Huto
2. Kountze
3. Trinity
4. Smithville
5. Whitney

Hey, It could happen :D

[Chopblock]

PPHSfan:
1. Huto
2. Kountze
3. Trinity
4. Smithville
5. Whitney

Hey, It could happen :D When Hippos Fly lmao

[holdem]

Jasper only returns 3 or 4. You know there's a big difference between Thursday and Friday nights. Why's Liberty better than Marlin, LaGrange and Newton? Haven't seen Liberty, but I've seen the others.

[Old Cardinal]

Sir: Jasper had an undefeated JV and an undefeated 9th grade(With the exception that Bridge City beat them 12-0 in a specially arranged game at the end of the season). Returning good players are bountiful, don't worry about Jasper they can compete well. Either Liberty or Barbers Hill will be right in the mix in Division II..... Just because a team returns 20-25 (Letterman?), does not mean that those lettermen can outplay good athletes that have just been waiting their turn in a good program...I think that lettermen returnees are a poor indicator of who will be successful, in the Bracket play. Its the strong "programs" that survive in the Postseason.

<small>[ June 18, 2003, 07:54 AM: Message edited by: Old Cardinal ]</small>

[holdem]

My question was based on your statement: "I would like to submit a poll based on evaluating the RETURNING players for 2003".

I didn't realize you meant "I would like to submit a poll based on evaluating the RETURNING players for 2003 - but returnees are a poor indicator of who will be successful".

All your words, sir. Just trying to understand the logic.

They may end up the best Div.I team in the region, but it'll take all season to get there.

[Old Cardinal]

Sir, please read again, I am trying to make a point that "letterman" is not a very good indicator of future projections. There are good letterman- and not so good letterman-the power of the organized program, is what counts...Ex. Barbers Hill has an excellent program and overall that is what gives them success. In this one year however, I stuck my neck out, and predicted Liberty, for this one season only, but I may well be wrong, because of the strength of the program at BH. After this season, I don't think Liberty will be a threat in 22-3A-they don't maintain that good of an organization.....I go see a lot of 9th grade and JV games, plus all the 3A varsity games I can see-for me that first hand knowledge is better than reading how many "letterman" are returning; as the biggest indicator of future success. Again, It's the quality of the returnees(many or few), not the number of letterman that denotes possible success. A few great returnees and a good winning 9th grade and winning JV feeder program, usually wins over a great number of Letterman from a break-even win/lose program.

<small>[ June 18, 2003, 10:24 AM: Message edited by: Old Cardinal ]</small>

[Old Cardinal]

To BCCards, I have lived in BCISD for 51 years, I have an Orange address because I live outside the city of Bridge City postal area.

[Rabbit'93]

You guys are so civil.....hehe :D

[RBARKER]

It's civil now Rabbit, but wait until Football season starts :D

<small>[ June 18, 2003, 10:22 AM: Message edited by: RBARKER ]</small>

[Jacket2000]

Hey Old Card, when are you gonna reply to Matt's post?
J2K

[Matthew328]

Exactly...if you guys think it is uncivil now...(is uncivil a word?) wait til the season starts...LOL LOL

[Jacket2000]

Old Card, we're still waitin' for you to repsond to Matt's post.
J2K

[Jacket2000]

Just wanted to move this back to the top so that OC has a chance to respond to Matt's post.
J2K

[Old Cardinal]

Jacket, I thought I did respond? To parrott what you read in Dave Campbell about Anahuac may well end up being true; however, I just feel that having SEEN Anahuac's 9th grade, JV and Varsity play, that just maybe, I have a better handle on what Anahuac's team might do, as compared to what other teams might do. Remember, I have seen the Varsity, 9th grade and JV teams of the other teams, also. Long distance predictions without any actual visual experience is pretty hard....The continual coupling of TD's to add up a score will not work...Team X over team Y 2TD's Then Team Y over team Z by 4 TD's, Does not then add up to 6 TD's difference anyway. Even if it were statistically accurate you would have to divide by two; thus saying-- 2TD's + 4 TD's equals 6 TD's. Then divide by two, and your analysis would be- Team X playing team Z would statistically be a three TD better team, not a six TD better team... I picked Orangefield to come in 2nd in the District last year and was correct; not based on stats but having seen their Varsity, 9th grade and JV play several games against the like teams from other towns that I too have observed. Statistically, OF would not have been the team of choice; however, actually seeing a program and comparing it to another programs, is another method of predicting. I have been quite accurate down here, and a lot of folks ask me my opinions about various teams, not because of stat-analysis, but because I base my opinions on visual observations of an array of detailed data that can only be gathered by seeing the various components, and making a projection from those observations...Attention to minor details is the way I have been trained to operate, be it- Scientific, Business, Financial, or any other field! Hands-on analysis of what a bunch of HS school kids might do on any given Friday night does present a real challenge, however.