Some of the upsets this week

[Old Cardinal]

Boy that hard work by teams with less experience starting the year, seems to be really strengthing the Division I playoff prospects. Atlanta 7 Daingerfield 3; Jasper 34 Newton 27; Decatur 35 Bridgeport 14; Mexia 21 Fairfield 13....I would venture a guess that all of those that lost these games might well have been the winners, if they had played early in the season. These were considered upsets by some; but all of these teams should do well in the playoffs.

[Pudlugger]

That's correct Old Cardinal teams get better, especially younger teams with many sophs and juniors. La Grange is such a team. They have consistantly improved and should be peaking right around playoff time.

[Comfortable Hemorrhage]

How do you see Decatur beating Bridgeport an upset?

[Owen B]

Nice try, Old Cardinal, but Atlanta should be D2 again this year, like they have been every year but one since 1998. The only reason they were D1 last year is that neither of the two largest teams in their district made the playoffs. Also, except for Jasper vs. Newton, the size difference in the 4 pairings you listed is smaller than in any of the D2 championship games. In 4 of 5 of those championships, the smaller school won. That causes some problems for your theory of larger schools winning in late season. You can't get any later than the D2 championship.

[Old Cardinal]

To Owen B.----Find me a school in Div.II that could have beaten Everman, Jasper, Burnet, Forney last year? You can prop Div. II up but the winners and high climbers of Div. I can beat them every year!

[jason]

Old Cardinal:
To Owen B.----Find me a school in Div.II that could have beaten Everman, Jasper, Burnet, Forney last year? You can prop Div. II up but the winners and high climbers of Div. I can beat them every year!SO TRUE

[Owen B]

One year does not "every year" make, Old Cardinal. I think that the D2 champions in 98, 99, and 2000 were better than the D1 champions. I think the opposite was the case in 01 and 02, and will be in 03. However, I wasn't trying to make a case about that, one way or another. I was responding to your post.

My first point was relatively minor, but seemingly a big deal to you, who makes so much of D1 vs. D2. One of the schools you cited as "really strengthing the Division I playoff prospects" is usally in Division II and will likely be again this year.

My second point was that the size differences in three of the four pairings you cited are insignificant. To illustrate the second point, I noted that the size differences were greater in every D2 championship, and in 4 out of 5, the smaller school won. The reason I chose the D2 championships is that you have repeatedly said that the size difference is most significant in late season, and the D2 championships are as late in the season as you can get.

I'm not saying that size differences aren't significant. Of course they are, if they are great enough. But relatively small differences in size are not significant. A review of the history of the matchups you cited will show that they don't support your point.

<small>[ October 20, 2003, 11:30 AM: Message edited by: Owen B ]</small>

[Old Cardinal]

Again Owen-find a Div. II team that would beat Forney, Jasper, Burnet or Everman, last year, at the end of the sesson?.... Also, I think that the top 4 Division I teams would beat the top four Division II teams all the way back, just like last year and, for that matter, this upcoming playoff run.

<small>[ October 20, 2003, 02:06 PM: Message edited by: Old Cardinal ]</small>

[Chief Woodman]

Old Cardinal:
To Owen B.----Find me a school in Div.II that could have beaten Everman, Jasper, Burnet, Forney last year? You can prop Div. II up but the winners and high climbers of Div. I can beat them every year!Kennedale. Not only could they have beaten Everman, THEY DID! Did it again this year......

[Chief Woodman]

Comfortable Hemorrhage:
How do you see Decatur beating Bridgeport an upset?Yes...'splain that, Lucy!

[DOGcatcher]

You're title is upsets of the week.

I really have only one thing to say, Jaspers enrollment is 3 times that of newton. I don't want people to think I am in any way taking away from Jaspers win.. But a Newton victory would have been the upset. The smaller school is usually the underdog...

[Owen B]

Old Cardinal:
Again Owen-find a Div. II team that would beat Forney, Jasper, Burnet or Everman, last year, at the end of the sesson?.... Also, I think that the top 4 Division I teams would beat the top four Division II teams all the way back, just like last year and, for that matter, this upcoming playoff run.You're shifting the subject again. I responded to your opening post, which discussed a supposed late season advantage that larger size gave the larger four teams in your pairings. I pointed out that in three of the four pairings, no such advantage exists. (The record between those teams is the best proof of that.)

As to your newer contention: I agree that the four D1 semifinalists were also the four best teams in 3A last year. I don't think that is usually the case, and certainly not always the case. For example, I don't think that either Perryton or Bridge City, both 2001 D1 semifinalists, were even among the top ten that year. Collier-Sharp, Data Poll, and AP all agree with me on that. But let's not take their word, or mine, let's look at the record and use your criteria.

Perryton, the 2001 Region 1 Division 1 champion, is bigger than either Atlanta or Mexia, two of your "big school" examples in your first post. In week 9 of the 2001 season, Perryton lost (7-40) to Childress, a lowly D2 school that is smaller than any of the schools you listed.

Bridge City, 2001 Division 1 semifinalist from Region 3, is larger than any of the schools you listed in your first post, except Jasper. In week 9 of 2001, Bridge City lost (0-32) to Newton, a lowly D2 school that is the smallest of the ones you listed in your first post, among the smallest in 3A, and less than half the size of Bridge City).

Now week 9 is late enough in the season for your advantage to kick in, according to your opening post. Yet two of the four D1 semifinalists got soundly thrashed by D2 teams that didn't make it to the D2 semifinals. One of them didn't even get past bidistrict. I think there were likely several D2 teams that could have beaten both Bridge City and Perryton that year.

<small>[ October 20, 2003, 03:50 PM: Message edited by: Owen B ]</small>

[JasperDog94]

DOGcatcher:
You're title is upsets of the week.

I really have only one thing to say, Jaspers enrollment is 3 times that of newton. I don't want people to think I am in any way taking away from Jaspers win.. But a Newton victory would have been the upset. The smaller school is usually the underdog...Newton's enrollment - 353.5 (I don't know if you can start a half a kid or not. I'll have to check the rule book on that one)

Jasper's enrollment - 876

Newton's enrollment doubled - 707

Newton's enrollment tripled - 1060.5

Looks closer to double than triple. Still, Newton has a great team year in and year out. Plus, you always play tough. If you guys go 2A, ya'll will be a favorite to win it all. But until then, good luck in DII.

GO DAWGS AND EAGLES!!! :D

[Old Cardinal]

To Owen: I agree with you that Newton could have beat both BC and Perryton that year. Newton went to the final Championship game, in Div II and lost a squeaker to Giddings...(They also lost to Jasper 27-23, but Jasper was in their last year of 4A).....It probably has never been discussed on this board but the Bridge City Coach at that time had 8 running backs that were quite fleet, but very light. In the Newton game he ran the QB draw over and over, until he hurt his QB's. How they managed to win over Liberty, Sweeny and Mexia to end up in the final four, with so many being hurt-is quite a question. He would never pass to relieve the pressure and slowly, but surely, he hurt or severly hobbled every running back that was on the first or second team- by running right up the middle. The loss to Sinton was pre-set; Sinton was good enough to take that team even if they were healthy. The fact is, 8 great little fleet backs had payed quite a sacrifice to their health just getting their team to the semi-finals. To plunge little backs up the middle, against stacked defenses, until each were hurt; might have got them that far, but I will promise you that at least half of the teams that Bridge City beat that year could have taken a win that day(against Sinton), base on the crippleness of the Bridge City backfield. And I mean two layers of backs. That fact has been surpressed for three years now, none of us discussed it on the message board. It would sound like just a big excuse. I am glad that we have had a new Coach the last two seasons. That is why Sinton won 38-0, in fact with all the hurt kids-it could have been 138-0. Now Owen, outside of this research, Div I stacks stronger teams at the top most of the time in the playoffs.

<small>[ October 20, 2003, 05:37 PM: Message edited by: Old Cardinal ]</small>

[Owen B]

Old Cardinal:
To Owen: I agree with you that Newton could have beat both BC and Perryton that year. Newton went to the final Championship game, in Div II and lost a sweaker to Giddings...We're getting somewhere! You've acknowledged that at least one D2 team, in at least one year, could have beaten two D1 semifinalists. A correction, though. Newton's loss to Giddings in 2001 was in the quarterfinals (Regional final). Giddings then lost to La Grange in the semifinals, and La Grange lost to Commerce in the finals.


Now Owen, outside of this research, Div I stacks stronger teams at the top most of the time.I could offer more research, but I won't quibble. My argument wasn't with "most of the time." It was with "every year."

[Buckeye80]

How can anyone overlook Marlin from last year? They beat the #1 4A Ennis Lions. They COULD'VE beat any of the D1 regional champs last year, because anybody can beat anybody on any given day; just ask Everman (Kennedale 2002), just ask Spring Hill (Chapel Hill 2003), just ask Carthage (Diboll 2003), just ask that same Marlin team about the playoffs last year. Size is absolutely no factor. It's the boys on the field and the size of their hearts. Go Buckeyes!!!!