Prep's 35 toughest schedules played to this point in 4ADI

[Sweetwater Red]

These are based on opponents power rating.

1 4A - 3 Big Spring - 156.19
2 4A - 7 Texarkana Liberty-Eylau - 156.04
3 4A - 13 Lampasas - 156.00
4 4A - 10 Little Cypress-Mauriceville - 155.92
5 4A - 9 Center - 155.83
6 4A - 12 Stafford - 155.41
7 4A - 10 Silsbee - 155.35
8 4A - 4 Sanger - 153.85
9 4A - 4 Burkburnett - 153.82
10 4A - 10 Bridge City - 153.71
11 4A - 7 Paris - 153.69
12 4A - 3 Abilene Wylie - 153.58
13 4A - 12 El Campo - 153.37
14 4A - 9 Palestine - 153.14
15 4A - 9 Carthage - 153.02
16 4A - 4 Decatur - 152.98
17 4A - 12 Sealy - 152.85
18 4A - 12 Bay City - 152.82
19 4A - 13 China Spring - 152.19
20 4A - 7 Princeton - 152.17
21 4A - 9 Kilgore - 152.09
22 4A - 3 Snyder - 152.01
23 4A - 9 Tyler Chapel Hill - 151.69
24 4A - 9 Bullard - 151.68
25 4A - 6 Alvarado - 151.48
26 4A - 3 Brownwood - 151.44
27 4A - 9 Henderson - 150.94
28 4A - 8 Terrell - 150.83
29 4A - 12 Freeport Brazosport - 150.36
30 4A - 3 Stephenville - 150.34
31 4A - 4 Gainesville - 149.77
32 4A - 10 Navasota - 149.71
33 4A - 13 Waco La Vega - 149.66
34 4A - 13 Burnet - 149.64
35 4A - 13 Liberty Hill - 149.56

[regaleagle]

Strength of schedule don't mean diddly if you ain't still in the playoffs. Heck, all the stronger teams are the ones with the weaker schedule(than them).......so we know this stat don't apply to them. It's a stat and that's all it is.......a measure against the schedules of other teams and their schedules.

[Sweetwater Red]

Sometimes it’s just embarrassingly easy folks.

[stardog]

How is this figured ?

[Sweetwater Red]

How is this figured ?

It’s the work of Jerry Forrest of Jerry Football Ratings/pigskin prep and Dave Campbell’s Texas football
and only he knows the answer to that question. The one that could’ve probably answer that question on here
would be WOS87. He used some similar algorithms to generate playoff points spreads several years ago.

[stardog]

So how would teams like Waco La Vega and Liberty Hill get higher rating when they are better than everyone they play ?

[hollywood]

Argyle not on the list? Ha.. played a buncha cupcakes. They have no idea what’s about to hit them this week! :stirpot::stirpot:

[hollywood]

So how would teams like Waco La Vega and Liberty Hill get higher rating when they are better than everyone they play ?

Schedule a tougher pre-district schedule for starters.

[rb585]

The first thing to note is that there's really not that much of a difference between #1 and #35.

That said, it seems ridiculous that D13, which indisputably one of the toughest 4A districts in the state, has the 3 worst schedules.

[rb585]

So how would teams like Waco La Vega and Liberty Hill get higher rating when they are better than everyone they play ?


Schedule a tougher pre-district schedule for starters.

Yeah, Liberty Hill, quit scheduling patsies like Brownwood!

[stardog]

SO --teams in playoffs should move up the list as they continue to win against tougher teams. The team that wins state will have played the toughest schedule since they will have beaten everyone else.

[Sweetwater Red]

SO --teams in playoffs should move up the list as they continue to win against tougher teams. The team that wins state will have played the toughest schedule since they will have beaten everyone else.

To answer your first question LH and LV’s SOS will go up because their opponents power rating is higher than their SOS.

And no, Sweeetwater has an incredibly soft schedule. Even if they win out they wouldn’t finish with the toughest SOS in the state.

[stardog]

So -- #1 Big Spring and #3 Lampasas never make playoffs - only win 1 or 2 games a year - so give them a trophy for toughest schedule.
Good thing Liberty Hill got cancelled against La Grange - they wouldn't have not
made the list.
Why isn't FW Diamond-Hill Jarvis #1 they never beat anyone - currently on a 72 game losing streak.

[Sweetwater Red]

The first thing to note is that there's really not that much of a difference between #1 and #35.

That said, it seems ridiculous that D13, which indisputably one of the toughest 4A districts in the state, has the 3 worst schedules.

District play is only part of the equation. In LH’s case it’s a good thing the game against La Grange (0-9) was cancelled or the SOS
wouldve been worse. The games against Anderson (1-9) and Lampasas (2-8) hurt bad enough. Not to mention a non-district schedule full of
teams at or below .500.

[Sweetwater Red]

So -- #1 Big Spring and #3 Lampasas never make playoffs - only win 1 or 2 games a year - so give them a trophy for toughest schedule.
Good thing Liberty Hill got cancelled against La Grange - they wouldn't have not
made the list.
Why isn't FW Diamond-Hill Jarvis #1 they never beat anyone - currently on a 72 game losing streak.

Because that’s not how it works.

[Tejastrue]

Now...on to the Dll list. Lol

[Sweetwater Red]

Now...on to the Dll list. Lol

Maybe tomorrow. Lol

I will say that the highest SOS for District 13 is Hondo at 13 and then Wimberley at 31.

[Tejastrue]

No rush. :doh:

[Tejastrue]

It is better for Hondo to have played us than the Texans to have played the Owls. :thinking:

[Caveman]

Argyle not on the list? Ha.. played a buncha cupcakes. They have no idea what’s about to hit them this week! :stirpot::stirpot:

This just went up on the fieldhouse bulletin board. The kids are already fired up, but just keep sending in this stuff. We appreciate it.

[WOS87]

It all works itself out in the end when the top teams start facing each other. Last year WO-S ended the year with the #1 SOS and Navarro was #2 I think

[Sweetwater Red]

It all works itself out in the end when the top teams start facing each other. Last year WO-S ended the year with the #1 SOS and Navarro was #2 I think

Actually.... :D

http://www.***********.com/archive/2016/statistics.asp?sid=4&sr=1&classID=2&divID=18

[rb585]

Maybe tomorrow. Lol

I will say that the highest SOS for District 13 is Hondo at 13 and then Wimberley at 31.

OK, I'm convinced that a big part of the problem with these HS rankings is that they do a poor job of differentiating between levels.

I remember in 2005 seeing a computer ranking that had Wimberley #10 in the state, across all levels. That's just stupid. Hey, Maxpreps has us #13: http://www.maxpreps.com/high-schools/wimberley-texans-(wimberley,tx)/football-fall-05/rankings.htm

According to that, we would beat Converse Judson, Allen, North Shore, and West Orange Stark (oh, wait, we actually did beat them 52-29!) that season. Absurd. We would have gotten crushed by Judson, Allen, and NS, just because of size.

Wimberley played a damn good non-district schedule this season. Hondo played 3A Yoakum and two private schools. Liberty Hill supposedly had the easiest schedule in 4AD1, even though they played a 5A and a 6A team. This algorithm they're using can't figure that out.

[LHAG]

Yeah, Liberty Hill, quit scheduling patsies like Brownwood!

And 6A Austin Anderson who we beat and 5A Port La Vaca Calhoun who we lost to 41-28 in preseason. We also have La Vega, China Spring and Gatesville in our disrict. The only reson the power ratings came out this low is that we were all knocking off each other in district. We beat 2 of the 3 we played.

[speedbump]

And 6A Austin Anderson who we beat and 5A Port La Vaca Calhoun who we lost to 41-28 in preseason. We also have La Vega, China Spring and Gatesville in our disrict. The only reson the power ratings came out this low is that we were all knocking off each other in district. We beat 2 of the 3 we played.

D13 didn't come close to knocking each other off the way D12 did.

[stardog]

And 6A Austin Anderson who we beat and 5A Port La Vaca Calhoun who we lost to 41-28 in preseason. We also have La Vega, China Spring and Gatesville in our district. The only reason the power ratings came out this low is that we were all knocking off each other in district. We beat 2 of the 3 we played.

My thinking is D13 had a very weak non-district, but a strong D13 made the non- district even weaker. So the D13 teams must have been way low on the non-district schedule. But playing each other should have really jump them up in the ratings.

What would the rating look
like at just district games - especially LV, LH, CS, and Gate.

[WOS87]

OK, I'm convinced that a big part of the problem with these HS rankings is that they do a poor job of differentiating between levels.

I remember in 2005 seeing a computer ranking that had Wimberley #10 in the state, across all levels. That's just stupid. Hey, Maxpreps has us #13: http://www.maxpreps.com/high-schools/wimberley-texans-(wimberley,tx)/football-fall-05/rankings.htm

According to that, we would beat Converse Judson, Allen, North Shore, and West Orange Stark (oh, wait, we actually did beat them 52-29!) that season. Absurd. We would have gotten crushed by Judson, Allen, and NS, just because of size.

Wimberley played a damn good non-district schedule this season. Hondo played 3A Yoakum and two private schools. Liberty Hill supposedly had the easiest schedule in 4AD1, even though they played a 5A and a 6A team. This algorithm they're using can't figure that out.


Keep bringing up that 2005 score. Please. :kiss:

[db8coach]

Let me get this right, Big Spring had the hardest schedule in 4A Division 1 this year. And this is calculated by looking at their opponent's schedule? On paper this works because lots of times those teams schedule the Big Springs of the world so that they have a great looking record at the end of the year. You schedule 5 creampuffs for non-district games...you will go into district at 5-0, so your strength looks pretty good.

That being said, I think everyone that Big Spring played made the playoffs again?

[jason]

For what it's worth...
Stephenville's opponents were combined 55-56. 8 of the 10 teams they played made the playoffs and 3 are still playing.
The two that didn't make it were combined 0-20 so that throws off the win/loss a bit. The win/loss improves a bit if you count the 3 teams they've played in the playoffs (counting argyle).

[db8coach]

For what it's worth...
Stephenville's opponents were combined 55-56. 8 of the 10 teams they played made the playoffs and 3 are still playing.
The two that didn't make it were combined 0-20 so that throws off the win/loss a bit. The win/loss improves a bit if you count the 3 teams they've played in the playoffs (counting argyle).

You also didn't mention that Snyder was 2-8 and made the playoffs. So 3 of SVilles opponents were a combined 2-28.

[jason]

You also didn't mention that Snyder was 2-8 and made the playoffs. So 3 of SVilles opponents were a combined 2-28.
true, i didn't think about that - you can't help it when 2 of the teams in your district are terrible...

The other 7 they played weren't bad (53-28 combined). Doesn't matter - the team they play this week is 12-0 and unbeatable by some people's standards.

[db8coach]

true, i didn't think about that - you can't help it when 2 of the teams in your district are terrible...

The other 7 they played weren't bad (53-28 combined). Doesn't matter - the team they play this week is 12-0 and unbeatable by some people's standards.

According to maxpreps, Svilles Opp record was 48-51.

Big Spring's at the top of the list Opp record was 61-38.

[rb585]

This is 4A. We can ignore "was a playoff team." Nearly 80% of teams make the playoffs.

[rb585]

Keep bringing up that 2005 score. Please. :kiss:

:thumbsup:

I only keep bringing it up because when we won that game, we *KNEW* we we going to win state for the first time.

(And because you're a good dude.)