Alignment Cutoff Number Predictions

[Yoe_09]

What are your thoughts on what is going to happen here? Will the 5A split have any impact on numbers?

[arges]

Kinda think UIL might throw us a curve and leave the bottom close to what it is now and not have as high a top number as a lot of folks have predicted. Say 480-1180 area.

[Old Green]

I say the cutoff for 4a will be 480 at bottom and 1130 at the top.


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[Rabid Cougar]

I say the cutoff for 4a will be 480 at bottom and 1130 at the top.


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You may have an unwanted move up from 3 A in Regions 3 or 4 if those numbers stick.

[bobcat1]

Find out Wylie's numbers and you will close on the top end.:taunt:

[hollywood]

Find out Wylie's numbers and you will close on the top end.:taunt:

Nailed it!

[Dawgs]

On another site they have 4a DI projected at 776 - 1200. So if maybe DII would be 480 - 1199? If 776 is the DII cutoff, we are going to see DII get a whole lot tougher. Carthage would be almost a lock to drop. Carthage, LE, and Van would all potentially drop. Navasota, China Spring, and La Vega would be right on the line. This will be a very interesting alignment.

[Aesculus gilmus]

I know that Coach Surratt has too much pride to go down to Division II. He will no doubt opt to keep the Bulldogs in Division I.

I have to admit I miss Gilmer playing the Division I teams. I almost wish we could opt up as well.

However, Gilmer High School enrollment is collapsing (some of the buildings will be collapsing before too much longer as well), so the decision eventually may be whether we can opt to remain in 4A or just go down to 3A and annihilate all those teams.

[d0tc0m]

I know that Coach Surratt has too much pride to go down to Division II. He will no doubt opt to keep the Bulldogs in Division I.

I have to admit I miss Gilmer playing the Division I teams. I almost wish we could opt up as well.

However, Gilmer High School enrollment is collapsing (some of the buildings will be collapsing before too much longer as well), so the decision eventually may be whether we can opt to remain in 4A or just go down to 3A and annihilate all those teams.


Right now, Gilmer would flat out embarrass 3A teams. But the collapsing enrollment will eventually catch up with the Buckeyes, if indeed it continues to drop at the rate which you describe.

[slingshot]

Find out Wylie's numbers and you will close on the top end.:taunt:I wish... 1200+ new homes going up in the district will make it impossible. Talked to a school board member last week--the long term projections are scary. Projecting a High School enrollment of 1600-1800 in 5 years, over 2000 in 10. Will probably end up being bigger than either of the AISD schools (Abilene High/Cooper). I know progress and growth are inevitable but I really dread it--I like the 'small school atmosphere' and the way things are done at Wylie now. In a few years we'll be just another big school. Glad my youngest just graduated. Kinda sad...

[Aesculus gilmus]

The governor and all the rest of the politicians are always bragging about how rapidly Texas is growing in population.

I'm not sure that's a good thing, but they are. A lot of Third World countries have rapidly growing populations as well.

I will just sit here in Gilmer away from the hordes. Not too many people want to move here. For one thing, you have to drive at least 25 to 40 miles to your job from here.

[lostaussie]

For one thing, you have to drive at least 25 to 40 miles to your job from here.Lol. I been doing that for 35 years.

[d0tc0m]

The governor and all the rest of the politicians are always bragging about how rapidly Texas is growing in population.

I'm not sure that's a good thing, but they are. A lot of Third World countries have rapidly growing populations as well.

I will just sit here in Gilmer away from the hordes. Not too many people want to move here. For one thing, you have to drive at least 25 to 40 miles to your job from here.



Too many non-Texans moving in. Rapid growth is not always good, and, in fact, can be quite catastrophic (relatively speaking) - i.e. a business that grows exponentially/rapidly before it is ready, and/or has the structure/plan in place to support the growth.

Another thing that bugs me is this idea of progress for the sake of progress. At a certain point, that progression becomes regression. Celina is heading that way, I'm afraid.

[Dawgs]

I know that Coach Surratt has too much pride to go down to Division II. He will no doubt opt to keep the Bulldogs in Division I.

I have to admit I miss Gilmer playing the Division I teams. I almost wish we could opt up as well.

However, Gilmer High School enrollment is collapsing (some of the buildings will be collapsing before too much longer as well), so the decision eventually may be whether we can opt to remain in 4A or just go down to 3A and annihilate all those teams.

You know I don't know if that's true or not. To be completely honest I think many fans would be for opting up to D1. Not a knock on D2 at all, but I would like to stay in district with Kilgore and Hendo. Those are our district rivals for the most part of the last 30-40 years or so. I'm not sure what Surratt would do, and how he would think about the situation. I didn't even think about that, but I think you could be correct. But as the years go, we will not be able to keep opting up. I mean heck the top end of D1 is going to be 1200. That's a lot more than the 750 Carthage has. But Gilmer and Carthage have a lot of the same demographic. We will never run out of players. A lot of families stay here, and the cycle just keeps turning over. There just isn't any growth. The people that are here will stay, but nothing will bring new people here (except maybe some jobs with a oil and gas operator or service company. But for the most part those jobs are filled with people from Carthage). Will be interesting for sure.

As for Gilmer I really wish they were back with us in D1. But with a population diminishing, that's probably not a good option. You guys are already going to be 75+ students below the D1 cutoff. What do y'all expect the enrollment to be on snapshot day? I know Gilmer usually is at about 700 I think. Will it drop significantly from the previous snapshot?

[Dawgs]

I know it's a long way down the road, but Gilmer would be a total nightmare in 3a. Teams would literally be scared. I remember when Daingerfield was winning titles in 2008 - 2010. Gilmer was blowing them out every year. That just wouldn't be fair.

[Rabid Cougar]

On another site they have 4a DI projected at 776 - 1200. So if maybe DII would be 480 - 1199? If 776 is the DII cutoff, we are going to see DII get a whole lot tougher. Carthage would be almost a lock to drop. Carthage, LE, and Van would all potentially drop. Navasota, China Spring, and La Vega would be right on the line. This will be a very interesting alignment.

LV and CS are above that number now. CS, for sure, will not ever drop.

[Aesculus gilmus]

What do y'all expect the enrollment to be on snapshot day? I know Gilmer usually is at about 700 I think. Will it drop significantly from the previous snapshot?

Our superintendent has recently been quoted as saying that it's down to 660. I was being a bit facetious about dropping to 3A. I think we'll always have at least around 600 students in high school and that's because the district covers so much territory.

[LH Panther Mom]

We were 9 1/2 kids shy of the cutoff last alignment. With all the new subdivisions that have popped up the past few years, I'm pretty sure that we haven't had a significant drop. Unless the celing is raised, say hello 5A teams. The only benefit I can see if the district games will most likely be less than 20 miles away, and one about 5 or so. :twitch:

[Yoe_09]

I know it's a long way down the road, but Gilmer would be a total nightmare in 3a. Teams would literally be scared. I remember when Daingerfield was winning titles in 2008 - 2010. Gilmer was blowing them out every year. That just wouldn't be fair.

2010
Gilmer 39 Daingerfield 18
Tatum 47 Gilmer 41
Cameron Yoe 35 Tatum 14
Daingerfield 33 Cameron Yoe 27

All about the matchups.

I would love to opportunity for Cameron and Gilmer to play again.

[Leopard4Life]

We were 9 1/2 kids shy of the cutoff last alignment. With all the new subdivisions that have popped up the past few years, I'm pretty sure that we haven't had a significant drop. Unless the celing is raised, say hello 5A teams. The only benefit I can see if the district games will most likely be less than 20 miles away, and one about 5 or so. :twitch:

Here are the Snapshot number from the 2016-2017 school year:

Liberty Hill
8th: 271
9th: 280
10th: 294
11th: 257
12th: 273

It will depend on the snapshot number, but I'd guess with the expansion of 6A to 250 teams that the bottom of 5A may move up.

[Dawgs]

2010
Gilmer 39 Daingerfield 18
Tatum 47 Gilmer 41
Cameron Yoe 35 Tatum 14
Daingerfield 33 Cameron Yoe 27

All about the matchups.

I would love to opportunity for Cameron and Gilmer to play again.

Yea you are right, it's all about matchups. But you happened to pick the only year in the last probably 15 years Gilmer didn't win 10 games to make your point. In 2010 Gilmer was 9-4. Yoe has an awesome program, but IMO Yoe wants zero of Gilmer year in and year out. Yoe is 0-3 the last 3 years playing CS. Respect for stepping up and playing them though. Yoe definitely isn't scared to schedule up. From looking at their schedule over the years they play tough competition. Looks to me that Yoe matches up very evenly with Connally, who struggles to makes the playoffs in 4a.

[Yoe_09]

Yea you are right, it's all about matchups. But you happened to pick the only year in the last probably 15 years Gilmer didn't win 10 games to make your point. In 2010 Gilmer was 9-4. Yoe has an awesome program, but IMO Yoe wants zero of Gilmer year in and year out. Yoe is 0-3 the last 3 years playing CS. Respect for stepping up and playing them though. Yoe definitely isn't scared to schedule up. From looking at their schedule over the years they play tough competition. Looks to me that Yoe matches up very evenly with Connally, who struggles to makes the playoffs in 4a.

There is definitely potential for your analysis to be correct. I would just like to see the game played. Gilmer is not afraid of anyone much like Cameron is not.

[Rabid Cougar]

Yea you are right, it's all about matchups. But you happened to pick the only year in the last probably 15 years Gilmer didn't win 10 games to make your point. In 2010 Gilmer was 9-4. Yoe has an awesome program, but IMO Yoe wants zero of Gilmer year in and year out. Yoe is 0-3 the last 3 years playing CS. Respect for stepping up and playing them though. Yoe definitely isn't scared to schedule up. From looking at their schedule over the years they play tough competition. Looks to me that Yoe matches up very evenly with Connally, who struggles to makes the playoffs in 4a.

That is total hogwash. Cameron has never shied away from any competitor.

[Aesculus gilmus]

Gilmer wants a rematch because of this:
https://youtu.be/Bx5C87L7Qjg
https://youtu.be/kTog-rleOvc
https://youtu.be/oytqV_RJRwI
https://youtu.be/1TP843hMlWw

[buckeyebob]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bQ0eAwtA_4&feature=youtu.be

I can't help myself...sorry Gobblers...I am somewhat ashamed of myself.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PWe8yKWa0M

The Game Itself

[Dawgs]

That is total hogwash. Cameron has never shied away from any competitor.

I never said they did. In fact if you read the post I said the opposite. They aren't afraid to schedule anybody. Respect to them for scheduling up like they do. But my point was they match up a lot better with a team like Connally then they would with Gilmer. The game would be a blow out more times than not. I'm not taking a shot at Yoe. But they don't want any of Gilmer on a yearly basis. It would be very similar to the Gilmer Daingerfield games of years past. Those games were rarely competitive. Doesn't matter anyway. Yoe is the class of 3a, there is no better program. And Gilmer isn't dropping to 3a. So it's a mute point. Just good for conversation.

[Old Green]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bQ0eAwtA_4&feature=youtu.be

I can't help myself...sorry Gobblers...I am somewhat ashamed of myself.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PWe8yKWa0M

The Game Itself

That was Avery good game !


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[Rabid Cougar]

Gilmer wants a rematch because of this:
https://youtu.be/Bx5C87L7Qjg
https://youtu.be/kTog-rleOvc
https://youtu.be/oytqV_RJRwI
https://youtu.be/1TP843hMlWw

sense the hate is deep with this one. Hummmm. 23 total yards of offense it was.