Realignment guess???

[vet93]

I took the last alignment's numbers and increased the number of 5a schools to 245 which is a possibility according to the article written by Breithaupt. I then tried to get close to a 2:1 ratio on the other classes and keep the number of schools to around 200 - 225. Here is what I came up with:

5A > 1830
4A 790 - 1829 (2.3 ratio)
3A 335 - 789 (2.3 ratio)
2A 165 - 334 (2.0 ratio)
1A < 165

If you don't take the total number of 5a's to 245, maybe go 230 then the bottom end of 5a might go to 1850 and then adjust accordingly on the other classes. Remember, these are numbers from the last alignment.

[CatWoman]

vet93:
I took the last alignment's numbers and increased the number of 5a schools to 245 which is a possibility according to the article written by Breithaupt. I then tried to get close to a 2:1 ratio on the other classes and keep the number of schools to around 200 - 225. Here is what I came up with:

5A > 1830
4A 790 - 1829 (2.3 ratio)
3A 335 - 789 (2.3 ratio)
2A 165 - 334 (2.0 ratio)
1A < 165

If you don't take the total number of 5a's to 245, maybe go 230 then the bottom end of 5a might go to 1850 and then adjust accordingly on the other classes. Remember, these are numbers from the last alignment.Do you know what Ballinger turned in?

[vet93]

Ballinger turned in 329

[Cat22]

I like it. I hope that's the way it turns out. Keeps Orangefield in about the middle of 3A.

[Phil C]

As good a guess as any. You can never tell what is going to happen until it is official. I remember in the 80s Gregory-Portland (GP) was the largest class in 3A (that was when they had four classes) and they expected to remain even though their enrollement went out because the UIL always raised their student limits. But that year the UIL didn't raise their limits as high and GP went from being the largest school in 3A to the smallest school in 4A. So you never know.

[JasperDog94]

The top number for 3A was 890 (I think) so I doubt very seriously that the number would drop by 100.

[CentralTxFan]

3A top number is 900. Ask Taylor..they missed it by 2!

[VWG]

I've heard that 3A could go to high 900's.
This would also raise lower number to about 400 range.
There are more schools being opened that I know of around the metroplex. Mansfield has another high school coming in, and two more planned before 2008. They predict that all of those schools will house around 2,500 kids.
Other areas are putting in new schools as well, but they still predict 5A low number to be raised and then the trickle down effect will hit.
Just a guess, but I see Ballinger, Childress, Bowie, Celina, and others to drop to 2A. Forney, Everman, Jasper, and others will stay in 3A. We could add a lot of 4A schools such as Mineral Wells, Stephenville, Burkburnett, etc.. that have small 4A enrollments.

[JasperDog94]

VWG:
I've heard that 3A could go to high 900's.
This would also raise lower number to about 400 range.
There are more schools being opened that I know of around the metroplex. Mansfield has another high school coming in, and two more planned before 2008. They predict that all of those schools will house around 2,500 kids.
Other areas are putting in new schools as well, but they still predict 5A low number to be raised and then the trickle down effect will hit.
Just a guess, but I see Ballinger, Childress, Bowie, Celina, and others to drop to 2A. Forney, Everman, Jasper, and others will stay in 3A. We could add a lot of 4A schools such as Mineral Wells, Stephenville, Burkburnett, etc.. that have small 4A enrollments.I think this is much more likely.

[vet93]

Using the last-realignments numbers if we set 3a at 450 to 900 (numbers proposed by many), then we would only have 156 schools in 3a. Even if you went down to 400 as the bottom end you would only have 177 teams. If you combine this with the movement of teams into 5a that has been proposed by the UIL, this would make a very small 3a and huge 5a and 2a classes. I really think to even things out that they are going to have to lower the top end of 4a and 3a to adjust for the influx of schools into 5a. Previously I used the most drastic calculation to get the low end of the 3a at 335. It could be as high as the 370-380 level, but I don't see how it could go too much higher than that because there would be too few schools left in the class.

[VWG]

vet93:
Using the last-realignments numbers if we set 3a at 450 to 900 (numbers proposed by many), then we would only have 156 schools in 3a. Even if you went down to 400 as the bottom end you would only have 177 teams. If you combine this with the movement of teams into 5a that has been proposed by the UIL, this would make a very small 3a and huge 5a and 2a classes. I really think to even things out that they are going to have to lower the top end of 4a and 3a to adjust for the influx of schools into 5a. Previously I used the most drastic calculation to get the low end of the 3a at 335. It could be as high as the 370-380 level, but I don't see how it could go too much higher than that because there would be too few schools left in the class.Great point. It will be a mystery until the decision day comes. You could start an office pool and place bets on what the target number is, closest person to the exact number gets the money!