3A Region II Playoff Projections

[Matthew328]

DIVISION I

Decatur vs. Frisco Lone Star
Ferris vs. Princeton
Paris vs. Kaufman
Brownsboro vs. Kilgore

DIVISION II

Gainesville vs. Argyle
Dallas Madison vs. Bonham
Texarkana Liberty-Eylau vs. Wills Point
Van vs. Henderson
Krum vs. Celina
Dallas Roosevelt vs. Melissa
Atlanta vs. Crandall
Canton vs. Gilmer

[bigwood33]

DIVISION II

Gainesville vs. Argyle
Dallas Madison vs. Bonham

I know that brackets are drawn from District alignment and an argument can be made every year about inequities but I really hate that Gainesville will likely meet Argyle in Bi- District. Both are outstanding this year and would most likely be 4+ TD favorites over either Bonham or Madison (1 Bi- District game over). I have no solutions but just saying that it's a shame.

[gatordaze]

Matt are you saying Gainesville and Argyle are district winners or Krum and Celina? If the former, what have you seen or not seen from Argyle and/or Celina that makes your pick? Celina played a similar schedule and leads all but 1 statistic.

Total Off YPG - 388 Celina, 330 Argyle
Rushing YPG - 250 Celina, 190 Argyle
Passing YPG - 139 Argyle, 137 Celina
Scoring PPG - 43.8 Celina, 37.7 Argyle

Total Def YPG - 178 Celina, 258 Argyle
Rushing YPG - 85 Celina, 159 Argyle
Passing YPG - 92.5 Celina, 99.1 Argyle
Scoring PPG - 11.3 Celina, 11.9 Argyle

Similar pre-district schedules:

AW > Melissa (Celina was winning the game ugly until last 5 seconds)
FW Nolan (5-2) = Liberty Christian (5-2)
Paris (4-3) = Liberty Eylau (3-4)
Kennedale (5-2) => Crandall (3-4)
Wilmer - Hutchins (3-4) = Perryton (3-4)
Madison (3-4) => Roosevelt (2-6)

Had Celina beat Melissa, would they be favored or is this really a toss-up?

[poisoned10]

DIVISION I

Decatur vs. Frisco Lone Star
Ferris vs. Princeton
Paris vs. Kaufman
Brownsboro vs. Kilgore

DIVISION II

Gainesville vs. Argyle
Dallas Madison vs. Bonham
Texarkana Liberty-Eylau vs. Wills Point
Van vs. Henderson
Krum vs. Celina
Dallas Roosevelt vs. Melissa
Atlanta vs. Crandall
Canton vs. Gilmer

Might finally get a chance for some revenge from 2005!

[Matthew328]

Matt are you saying Gainesville and Argyle are district winners or Krum and Celina? If the former, what have you seen or not seen from Argyle and/or Celina that makes your pick? Celina played a similar schedule and leads all but 1 statistic.

Total Off YPG - 388 Celina, 330 Argyle
Rushing YPG - 250 Celina, 190 Argyle
Passing YPG - 139 Argyle, 137 Celina
Scoring PPG - 43.8 Celina, 37.7 Argyle

Total Def YPG - 178 Celina, 258 Argyle
Rushing YPG - 85 Celina, 159 Argyle
Passing YPG - 92.5 Celina, 99.1 Argyle
Scoring PPG - 11.3 Celina, 11.9 Argyle

Similar pre-district schedules:

AW > Melissa (Celina was winning the game ugly until last 5 seconds)

FW Nolan (5-2) = Liberty Christian (5-2)
Paris (4-3) = Liberty Eylau (3-4)
Kennedale (5-2) => Crandall (3-4)
Wilmer - Hutchins (3-4) = Perryton (3-4)
Madison (3-4) => Roosevelt (2-6)

Had Celina beat Melissa, would they be favored or is this really a toss-up?


I think Gainesville wins 9-3A and Celina wins 10-3A...Gainesville's speed will be a little too much for Krum who has shocked me at how good they've been...really amazing..their HC is going to get coach of the year consideration from me....Celina-Argyle is a total toss up...going w/Celina because of experience.....

[buckeyebob]

Might finally get a chance for some revenge from 2005!

http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-bounce014.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

[gatordaze]

I think Gainesville wins 9-3A and Celina wins 10-3A...Gainesville's speed will be a little too much for Krum who has shocked me at how good they've been...really amazing..their HC is going to get coach of the year consideration from me....Celina-Argyle is a total toss up...going w/Celina because of experience.....

I agree that Celina should have a slight edge as they are at home and coming off of a bye week. Otherwise these teams are close.

[Lion70]

I like the Henderson vs Van matchup but Henderson has a lot of work to be talking playoffs. The Doom is that good lol.

[Aesculus gilmus]

I'd like to see Atlanta and Liberty-Eylau switched merely because I don't like playing a team twice in the same season. If Gilmer and Atlanta were to play again next month, that'd be four times in 15 months.

Are you assuming Atlanta is second seed in 13-3A or first seed? I think Liberty-Eylau always has a chance to beat Atlanta and usually does in recent years.

[Matthew328]

One thing to keep an eye on...if Bridgeport beats Decatur this pushes Gainesville into Div. 1

[regaleagle]

One thing to keep an eye on...if Bridgeport beats Decatur this pushes Gainesville into Div. 1

Yep, that's what happened Matt. Now you'll have either Bridgeport or Krum against Argyle and Celina in D2, assuming Lone Star clinches this week with a win over Ranchview. If Celina wins our district, they will play Bridgeport and Argyle will get Krum. If Argyle wins, it's visa-versa. And I think Anna, not Bonham, gets the third spot to play Madison. I also see LE and Paris North Lamar at the #2 and 3 spots, not Atlanta. That changes up the pairings there. Crandall, Wills Point, and Roosevelt won't make it either. These are all third spots anyway.

[regaleagle]

Yep, that's what happened Matt. Now you'll have either Bridgeport or Krum against Argyle and Celina in D2, assuming Lone Star clinches this week with a win over Ranchview. If Celina wins our district, they will play Bridgeport and Argyle will get Krum. If Argyle wins, it's visa-versa. And I think Anna, not Bonham, gets the third spot to play Madison. I also see LE and Paris North Lamar at the #2 and 3 spots, not Atlanta. That changes up the pairings there. Crandall, Wills Point, and Roosevelt won't make it either. These are all third spots anyway.

OK, I can see now that Anna fell to Bonham and Hutch to Roosevelt, so both Bonham and Roosevelt are in. Crandall may be in or out, and Wills Point is still questionable. I think Quinlan Ford takes one of those spots. I think Atlanta needs to win out to get in, beating both LE and Paris....not gonna happen.

[Matthew328]

Atlanta's loss to North Lamar puts them in major trouble...in this week's projection they'll be out

[catgut]

OK, I can see now that Anna fell to Bonham and Hutch to Roosevelt, so both Bonham and Roosevelt are in. Crandall may be in or out, and Wills Point is still questionable. I think Quinlan Ford takes one of those spots. I think Atlanta needs to win out to get in, beating both LE and Paris....not gonna happen. Not going to happen because Paris has already beaten Atlanta to open district.

[toddg]

Might finally get a chance for some revenge from 2005!

the 61-58 game? yeah..i think Gilmer will get that revenge!

[icu812]

Atlanta's loss to North Lamar puts them in major trouble...in this week's projection they'll be out

Wow, never thought Atl wouldn't make the playoffs. If that hapens it will be a disappointing season for them considering they had big expectations.

[Eagle11]

gainesville is thinking Decatur. going D1 will give them a chance to go a few rounds deep. i think we will see new coaches in the big city of decatur next year. they lost 10 starters from the first game but its no excuse for the way they have prepared for the games. every game they've had mental breakdowns that could have been prevented by a little good coaching. a lot of the boys say practices are a joke. they fell like the coaches gave up on them weeks ago. the biggest week of the year for them and they only had one full contact practice. Great job coach Story on the year or maybe just Kyle Story. we are hoping we can drop the coach title.

[regaleagle]

I reckon you mean "thanking" Decatur, mainly cuz you say the Eagles were not prepared to play against Gainesville. I got it. D1 will be an easier road for them in Region 2 than D2 would have been for them.

[MajorApplehorn]

Matt are you saying Gainesville and Argyle are district winners or Krum and Celina? If the former, what have you seen or not seen from Argyle and/or Celina that makes your pick? Celina played a similar schedule and leads all but 1 statistic.

Total Off YPG - 388 Celina, 330 Argyle
Rushing YPG - 250 Celina, 190 Argyle
Passing YPG - 139 Argyle, 137 Celina
Scoring PPG - 43.8 Celina, 37.7 Argyle

Total Def YPG - 178 Celina, 258 Argyle
Rushing YPG - 85 Celina, 159 Argyle
Passing YPG - 92.5 Celina, 99.1 Argyle
Scoring PPG - 11.3 Celina, 11.9 Argyle

Similar pre-district schedules:

AW > Melissa (Celina was winning the game ugly until last 5 seconds)
FW Nolan (5-2) = Liberty Christian (5-2)
Paris (4-3) = Liberty Eylau (3-4)
Kennedale (5-2) => Crandall (3-4)
Wilmer - Hutchins (3-4) = Perryton (3-4)
Madison (3-4) => Roosevelt (2-6)

Had Celina beat Melissa, would they be favored or is this really a toss-up?

Here are actual stats I posted at 12:48 on Saturday:

Celina

8-1 record (Lost to 6-2 Melissa)
Combined Opponents Record (non-district): 24-24 (.500)
Offense: 385 ypg, 43 ppg
Defense: 181 ypg, 12 ppg

Argyle

7-1 record (Lost to 8-0 #2 Abilene Wylie)
Combined Opponents Record (non-district): 32-17 (.653)
Offense: 350 ypg, 42 ppg
Defense: 244 ypg, 10 ppg

2 Common District Opponents

Celina 52 Ranchview 11
Celina 61 Lone Star 9

Argyle 56 Ranchview 0
Argyle 69 Lone Star 0

Argyle has played a much tougher schedule, yet still has basically the same scoring stats. Yards per game is slightly different, but the scoring is what matters. Yes Celina gets a bye week to prepare. We shall see how it goes.

I believe whichever way it goes, in the playoffs, Argyle has the capability to beat Gilmer or Henderson. I do not believe Celina can.

I'm not real sure where you got your stats, but nevertheless...

You are correct. Abilene Wylie is far superior to Melissa, regardless of what happened prior to the final bell, Celina lost.

As far as the rest of your comparisons...Let's look closer:

Nolan vs Liberty Christian--We shall see this weekend, however, for what it's worth, Liberty lost to TCA and Prestonwood. Nolan smoked TCA and beat the mighty Prestonwood by 12.
Paris vs Liberty-Eylau--Again, we shall see in 2 weeks, but Paris did beat Melissa, which Celina did not.
Kennedale vs Crandall--Crandall is 3-5 and terrible. Kennedale is 6-2 and will make noise in Region I in the playoffs.
Wilmer vs Perryton--Wilmer is one of the most athletic teams in the state. That being said, they couldn't be Crandall...Perryton, I know nothing about beyond they are 4-4 with losses to Dumas and Canadian
Madison vs Roosevelt--Madison beat Roosevelt 35-0.

If you can look at all the above and say the 2 schedules are comparable, your judgment far differs from mine. The great thing is, as previously stated multiple times, we shall see in 2 weeks!

[Eagle11]

yes it is thanking as in thank you.

[Old&Crusty]

Here are actual stats I posted at 12:48 on Saturday:

Celina

8-1 record (Lost to 6-2 Melissa)
Combined Opponents Record (non-district): 24-24 (.500)
Offense: 385 ypg, 43 ppg
Defense: 181 ypg, 12 ppg

Argyle

7-1 record (Lost to 8-0 #2 Abilene Wylie)
Combined Opponents Record (non-district): 32-17 (.653)
Offense: 350 ypg, 42 ppg
Defense: 244 ypg, 10 ppg

2 Common District Opponents

Celina 52 Ranchview 11
Celina 61 Lone Star 9

Argyle 56 Ranchview 0
Argyle 69 Lone Star 0

Argyle has played a much tougher schedule, yet still has basically the same scoring stats. Yards per game is slightly different, but the scoring is what matters. Yes Celina gets a bye week to prepare. We shall see how it goes.

I believe whichever way it goes, in the playoffs, Argyle has the capability to beat Gilmer or Henderson. I do not believe Celina can.

I'm not real sure where you got your stats, but nevertheless...

You are correct. Abilene Wylie is far superior to Melissa, regardless of what happened prior to the final bell, Celina lost.

As far as the rest of your comparisons...Let's look closer:

Nolan vs Liberty Christian--We shall see this weekend, however, for what it's worth, Liberty lost to TCA and Prestonwood. Nolan smoked TCA and beat the mighty Prestonwood by 12.
Paris vs Liberty-Eylau--Again, we shall see in 2 weeks, but Paris did beat Melissa, which Celina did not.
Kennedale vs Crandall--Crandall is 3-5 and terrible. Kennedale is 6-2 and will make noise in Region I in the playoffs.
Wilmer vs Perryton--Wilmer is one of the most athletic teams in the state. That being said, they couldn't be Crandall...Perryton, I know nothing about beyond they are 4-4 with losses to Dumas and Canadian
Madison vs Roosevelt--Madison beat Roosevelt 35-0.

If you can look at all the above and say the 2 schedules are comparable, your judgment far differs from mine. The great thing is, as previously stated multiple times, we shall see in 2 weeks!


Looks about right to me. Argyle is the favorite in this game. Hope it's a good one.

[blueduck]

Princeton is also undefeated, so dont count them out.....them and gainseville could be a good round 2 matchup