OldNavy
12-08-2011, 02:44 PM
This is long, but Massey has done some good work. These are the results of its predictions through the first 4 rounds of the playoffs.
Round 1 Massey Predictions and Results
Division I
Predicted score--------------------------(Actual Score)
Region I BI-DISTRICT
Cooper 27 - Borger 20-------------------(34--9)
Seminole 46 - Fabens 0------------------(61--0)
Abilene Wylie 38 - Burkburnett 24-------(28—17)
Alvarado 42 - Mineral Wells 0------------(69—6)
REGION II BI-DISTRICT
Celina 40 - Sanger 27 -------------------(42—21)
Lovejoy 35 - Dallas Madison 21---------(24—7)
Lindale 45 - Kaufman 18 ----------------(38—28)
Henderson 42 - Paris 28-----------------(55—17)
REGION III BI-DISTRICT
Chapel Hill 40 - Jasper 0 -----------------(70—28)
Levaga 42 - Palistine 0 ------------------(35—20)
Silsbee 14 - Huffman Hargrave 13 ------(14—19)
Navasota 34 - Sealy 28------------------(40—13)
REGION IV BI-DISTRICT
Lampasas 32 - Boerne 28---------------(35—21)
La Vernia 35 - Somerset 21-------------(28—0)
Columbia 27 - Rockport Fulton 13------(34--15)
RGC Grulla 21 - Raymondville 16--------(9—29)
DIVISION II
REGION I BI-DISTRICT
Shallowater 28, Dalhart 25--------------(40—7)
Midland Greenwood 40, Pecos 21-------(42—14)
Snyder 36, Graham 7 -------------------(35--19)
Decatur 40, Kennedale 28---------------(14—24)
Lubbock Estacado 36, Perryton 14 -----(61—21)
Monahans 42, Clint 0--------------------(43—6)
Brownwood 34, Bowie 20---------------(49--13)
Bridgeport 42, Glen Rose 34-------------(56—57)
REGION II BI-DISTRICT
Argyle 41, Commerce 14----------------(49—7)
Prosper 42 Wilmer-Hutchins 7-----------(28--7)
North Forney 31, Wills Point 17 ---------(34—28)
Carthage 28, Liberty Eylau 6 ------------(28--7)
Whitesboro 41, Van Alstyne 34----------(14—40)
Princeton 41, Roosevelt 20--------------(30—21)
Van 45, Ferris 14 ------------------------(51—23)
Gilmer 41, Atlanta 14--------------------(48—14)
REGION III BI-DISTRICT
Center 28, Bullard 27 --------------------(14-24)
Waco Robinson 41, Mexia 17------------(28—7)
West Orange-Stark 41, Cleveland 12 ---(58-14)
Smithville 33, Columbus 19--------------(14—21)
Rusk 42, Kirbyville 35 --------------------(47-18)
Fairfield 21, Lorena 20--------------------(14—28)
Coldspring-Oakhurst 36, Bridge City 12---(7—0)
Bellville 22, Giddings 20-------------------(28—18)
REGION IV BI-DISTRICT
Liberty Hill 21, Navarro 20----------------(35—14)
Devine 38, SA Houston 34----------------(27—19)
Ingleside 47, Wharton 26-----------------(35—36)
Port Isabel 28, Orange Grove 27---------(14—28)
Wimberley 47, Taylor 13------------------(38—31) 2OT
Gonzales 34, Hondo 14-------------------(21—10)
Sinton 28, Sweeny 16 --------------------(7—35)
Rio Hondo 40, Lyford 26------------------(27—14)
Massey picked 37 correctly and missed on 11. That is a 77% success rate.
Massey Predicted Scores, Round 2
Prediction (Actual Score)
DIVISION I
REGION I REGIONAL
Cooper 21 - Seminole 31 (13-35)
Abilene Wylie 7 - Alvarado 32 (0-31)
REGION II REGIONAL
Celina 42 - Lovejoy 20 (37-17)
Lindale 38 - Henderson 41 (20-56)
REGION III REGIONAL
Chapel Hill 35 – Le Vega 31 (27-20)
Navasota 35 - Huffman Hargrave 14 (44-3)
REGION IV REGIONAL
Lampasas 28 – La Vernia 21 (21-36)
West Columbia 36 – Raymondville 7 (57-21)
DIVISION II
REGION I REGIONAL
Shallowater 47, Greenwood 28 (47-22)
Snyder 38, Kennedale 20 (34-10)
Lubbock Estacado 22, Monahans 20 (7-27)
Brownwood 36, Glen Rose 27 (28-14)
REGION II REGIONAL
Argyle 30, Prosper 28 (40-24)
North Forney 14, Carthage 34 (12-31)
Van Alstyne 42, Princeton 38 (28-0)
Van 28, Gilmer 42 (40-57)
REGION III REGIONAL
Bullard 18, Waco Robinson 35 (53-41)
West Orange-Stark 28, Columbus 14 (52-9)
Lorena 28, Rusk 14 (40-0)
Coldspring-Oakhurst 31, Bellville 17 (21-14)
REGION IV REGIONAL
Liberty Hill 28, Devine 34 (20-21)
Wharton 34, Orange Grove 26 (65-7)
Wimberley 26, Gonzales 20 (40-14)
Sweeny 27, Rio Hondo 14 (41-14)
Massey picked 21 of 24 winners for an 87.5% success rate.
First two rounds total 58 winners out of 72 games for a 80.55% rate.
Massey Predicted Scores, Round 3 and (Actual)
DIVISION I
REGION I QUARTERFINALS
Seminole 21, Alvarado 28 (7—42)
REGION II QUARTERFINALS
Celina 33, Henderson 35 (19—42)
REGION III QUARTERFINALS
Chapel Hill 40, Navasota 34 (56—46)
REGION IV QUARTERFINALS
La Vernia 14, West Columbia 26 (7—28)
DIVISION II
REGION I REGIONAL
Shallowater 24, Snyder 40 (28—27) 2OT
Brownwood 13, Monahans 28 (13—20)
REGION II REGIONAL
Argyle 26, Carthage 21 (35—34) 2OT
Van Alstyne 21, Gilmer 48 (46—14)
REGION III REGIONAL
Bullard 20, West Orange-Stark 35 (13—45)
Lorena 7, Coldspring-Oakhurst 28 (7—13)
REGION IV REGIONAL
Devine 42, Wharton 28 (56—42)
Wimberley 41, Sweeny 14 (28—0)
Massey picked 11 winners out of 12 for 91.66% success rate.
Frist three rounds Massey picked 70 out of 84 games for a 83.33 % success rate.
Massey Predicted Scores, Round 4 (Actual)
DIVISION I
REGION I & 2 SEMI-FINALS
Henderson 28, Alvarado 33 (13--34)
REGION III & IV SEMI-FINALS
Chapel Hill 41, West Columbia 28 (21--16)
DIVISION II
REGION I QUARTERFINAL
Shallowater 21, Monahans 28 (20--27)
REGION II QUARTERFINAL
Argyle 28, Gilmer 35 (51-35)
REGION III QUARTERFINAL
West Orange-Stark 14, Coldspring-Oakhurst 30 (13--35)
REGION IV QUARTERFINAL
Devine 27, Wimberley 42 (12--38)
Massey picked 5 out of 6 for 83%.
Through the first 4 rounds Massey picked the winners 75 games out of 90 for 83.33%. With only 4 games remaining, the worst Massey could end up, ie. missing the last 4 games, would be 79.78%. My guess is Massey will pick a couple of these last 4 correctly.
What's the point of all this? One, it has shown the math model to be pretty good at what it does. If it picks you to win, it does not say you will win, just that the odds are in your favor, and the higher the odds, the better your expected result. Secondly, it looks to me that if Massey says, based on your teams performance you have a good team, you have a good team.
This late in the year, with all the data at hand, Massey reveals a pretty good picture of Texas football. Look you your teams Strength of Schedule and the rank of the teams you played to get a picture of where you are and how much stronger you might need to be in order to move up next year.
Round 1 Massey Predictions and Results
Division I
Predicted score--------------------------(Actual Score)
Region I BI-DISTRICT
Cooper 27 - Borger 20-------------------(34--9)
Seminole 46 - Fabens 0------------------(61--0)
Abilene Wylie 38 - Burkburnett 24-------(28—17)
Alvarado 42 - Mineral Wells 0------------(69—6)
REGION II BI-DISTRICT
Celina 40 - Sanger 27 -------------------(42—21)
Lovejoy 35 - Dallas Madison 21---------(24—7)
Lindale 45 - Kaufman 18 ----------------(38—28)
Henderson 42 - Paris 28-----------------(55—17)
REGION III BI-DISTRICT
Chapel Hill 40 - Jasper 0 -----------------(70—28)
Levaga 42 - Palistine 0 ------------------(35—20)
Silsbee 14 - Huffman Hargrave 13 ------(14—19)
Navasota 34 - Sealy 28------------------(40—13)
REGION IV BI-DISTRICT
Lampasas 32 - Boerne 28---------------(35—21)
La Vernia 35 - Somerset 21-------------(28—0)
Columbia 27 - Rockport Fulton 13------(34--15)
RGC Grulla 21 - Raymondville 16--------(9—29)
DIVISION II
REGION I BI-DISTRICT
Shallowater 28, Dalhart 25--------------(40—7)
Midland Greenwood 40, Pecos 21-------(42—14)
Snyder 36, Graham 7 -------------------(35--19)
Decatur 40, Kennedale 28---------------(14—24)
Lubbock Estacado 36, Perryton 14 -----(61—21)
Monahans 42, Clint 0--------------------(43—6)
Brownwood 34, Bowie 20---------------(49--13)
Bridgeport 42, Glen Rose 34-------------(56—57)
REGION II BI-DISTRICT
Argyle 41, Commerce 14----------------(49—7)
Prosper 42 Wilmer-Hutchins 7-----------(28--7)
North Forney 31, Wills Point 17 ---------(34—28)
Carthage 28, Liberty Eylau 6 ------------(28--7)
Whitesboro 41, Van Alstyne 34----------(14—40)
Princeton 41, Roosevelt 20--------------(30—21)
Van 45, Ferris 14 ------------------------(51—23)
Gilmer 41, Atlanta 14--------------------(48—14)
REGION III BI-DISTRICT
Center 28, Bullard 27 --------------------(14-24)
Waco Robinson 41, Mexia 17------------(28—7)
West Orange-Stark 41, Cleveland 12 ---(58-14)
Smithville 33, Columbus 19--------------(14—21)
Rusk 42, Kirbyville 35 --------------------(47-18)
Fairfield 21, Lorena 20--------------------(14—28)
Coldspring-Oakhurst 36, Bridge City 12---(7—0)
Bellville 22, Giddings 20-------------------(28—18)
REGION IV BI-DISTRICT
Liberty Hill 21, Navarro 20----------------(35—14)
Devine 38, SA Houston 34----------------(27—19)
Ingleside 47, Wharton 26-----------------(35—36)
Port Isabel 28, Orange Grove 27---------(14—28)
Wimberley 47, Taylor 13------------------(38—31) 2OT
Gonzales 34, Hondo 14-------------------(21—10)
Sinton 28, Sweeny 16 --------------------(7—35)
Rio Hondo 40, Lyford 26------------------(27—14)
Massey picked 37 correctly and missed on 11. That is a 77% success rate.
Massey Predicted Scores, Round 2
Prediction (Actual Score)
DIVISION I
REGION I REGIONAL
Cooper 21 - Seminole 31 (13-35)
Abilene Wylie 7 - Alvarado 32 (0-31)
REGION II REGIONAL
Celina 42 - Lovejoy 20 (37-17)
Lindale 38 - Henderson 41 (20-56)
REGION III REGIONAL
Chapel Hill 35 – Le Vega 31 (27-20)
Navasota 35 - Huffman Hargrave 14 (44-3)
REGION IV REGIONAL
Lampasas 28 – La Vernia 21 (21-36)
West Columbia 36 – Raymondville 7 (57-21)
DIVISION II
REGION I REGIONAL
Shallowater 47, Greenwood 28 (47-22)
Snyder 38, Kennedale 20 (34-10)
Lubbock Estacado 22, Monahans 20 (7-27)
Brownwood 36, Glen Rose 27 (28-14)
REGION II REGIONAL
Argyle 30, Prosper 28 (40-24)
North Forney 14, Carthage 34 (12-31)
Van Alstyne 42, Princeton 38 (28-0)
Van 28, Gilmer 42 (40-57)
REGION III REGIONAL
Bullard 18, Waco Robinson 35 (53-41)
West Orange-Stark 28, Columbus 14 (52-9)
Lorena 28, Rusk 14 (40-0)
Coldspring-Oakhurst 31, Bellville 17 (21-14)
REGION IV REGIONAL
Liberty Hill 28, Devine 34 (20-21)
Wharton 34, Orange Grove 26 (65-7)
Wimberley 26, Gonzales 20 (40-14)
Sweeny 27, Rio Hondo 14 (41-14)
Massey picked 21 of 24 winners for an 87.5% success rate.
First two rounds total 58 winners out of 72 games for a 80.55% rate.
Massey Predicted Scores, Round 3 and (Actual)
DIVISION I
REGION I QUARTERFINALS
Seminole 21, Alvarado 28 (7—42)
REGION II QUARTERFINALS
Celina 33, Henderson 35 (19—42)
REGION III QUARTERFINALS
Chapel Hill 40, Navasota 34 (56—46)
REGION IV QUARTERFINALS
La Vernia 14, West Columbia 26 (7—28)
DIVISION II
REGION I REGIONAL
Shallowater 24, Snyder 40 (28—27) 2OT
Brownwood 13, Monahans 28 (13—20)
REGION II REGIONAL
Argyle 26, Carthage 21 (35—34) 2OT
Van Alstyne 21, Gilmer 48 (46—14)
REGION III REGIONAL
Bullard 20, West Orange-Stark 35 (13—45)
Lorena 7, Coldspring-Oakhurst 28 (7—13)
REGION IV REGIONAL
Devine 42, Wharton 28 (56—42)
Wimberley 41, Sweeny 14 (28—0)
Massey picked 11 winners out of 12 for 91.66% success rate.
Frist three rounds Massey picked 70 out of 84 games for a 83.33 % success rate.
Massey Predicted Scores, Round 4 (Actual)
DIVISION I
REGION I & 2 SEMI-FINALS
Henderson 28, Alvarado 33 (13--34)
REGION III & IV SEMI-FINALS
Chapel Hill 41, West Columbia 28 (21--16)
DIVISION II
REGION I QUARTERFINAL
Shallowater 21, Monahans 28 (20--27)
REGION II QUARTERFINAL
Argyle 28, Gilmer 35 (51-35)
REGION III QUARTERFINAL
West Orange-Stark 14, Coldspring-Oakhurst 30 (13--35)
REGION IV QUARTERFINAL
Devine 27, Wimberley 42 (12--38)
Massey picked 5 out of 6 for 83%.
Through the first 4 rounds Massey picked the winners 75 games out of 90 for 83.33%. With only 4 games remaining, the worst Massey could end up, ie. missing the last 4 games, would be 79.78%. My guess is Massey will pick a couple of these last 4 correctly.
What's the point of all this? One, it has shown the math model to be pretty good at what it does. If it picks you to win, it does not say you will win, just that the odds are in your favor, and the higher the odds, the better your expected result. Secondly, it looks to me that if Massey says, based on your teams performance you have a good team, you have a good team.
This late in the year, with all the data at hand, Massey reveals a pretty good picture of Texas football. Look you your teams Strength of Schedule and the rank of the teams you played to get a picture of where you are and how much stronger you might need to be in order to move up next year.