Massey rankings

[Saggy Aggie]

When do the updated ones come out?


I'd like to see the predictions for this coming week.

[OldNavy]

I've been seeing them updated around Tuesday. But I have seen scores updated before then. I have not seen any playoff scores updated yet, so I don't know if they will update or not. If they do, I will post the palyoff predictions.

[BILLYFRED0000]

I've been seeing them updated around Tuesday. But I have seen scores updated before then. I have not seen any playoff scores updated yet, so I don't know if they will update or not. If they do, I will post the palyoff predictions.

Massey is updated now. you can check out the rankings iin the playoffs and they have brackets set up.

[GrTigers6]

Massey is updated now. you can check out the rankings iin the playoffs and they have brackets set up.

Anyone have a link?

[OldNavy]

Anyone have a link?

http://www.highschoolsports.net/massey/state/Texas/Football/Varsity/Boys/2011/

[Saggy Aggie]

How do you sort it into class 3a only?

I just counted once quickly but I think Columbia is #19 this week after being #28 last week.

Finally got some love from the computers when our district swept d30. Found out maybe our schedule wasnt so weak afterall

[MGAR]

Having a hard time believing that Alvarado and Gilmer are the 13th and 15th best teams in the state.

Am I reading that right?

Gilmer is ranked ahead of Denton Guyer..

But when you do a matchup it's Guyer 34 Gilmer 33..

Someone please tell me I'm looking at this wrong.. If not then what a joke.

[gatordaze]

Having a hard time believing that Alvarado and Gilmer are the 13th and 15th best teams in the state.

Am I reading that right?

Gilmer is ranked ahead of Denton Guyer..

But when you do a matchup it's Guyer 34 Gilmer 33..

Someone please tell me I'm looking at this wrong.. If not then what a joke.

Well duh! It is a simple formula:

Each team's gametime performance is assumed to be normally distributed about a certain mean (its rating). The probability that team A would defeat team B is then determined from the cumulative distribution function (CDF) associated with a normal random variable.

Let p = Prob(A beats B) = F(rA,rB,hA,hB), where rA,hA and rB,hB are ratings and home advantages of teams A and B respectively. F is a function of rA,rB,hA,hB that is based on the CDF of a normal random variable.

All the game scores are translated to a scale from 0 to 1 by the GOF. Let g = GOF(pA,pB), where pA and pB are the points actually scored by teams A and B in a particular game.

A nonlinear function of the teams' ratings is formed by multiplying terms that look like:

p^g * (1-p)^(1-g)

Here ^ denotes an exponent. Also note that 0 <= p,g <= 1. By maximizing the resulting function, maximum liklihood estimates (MLE) are obtained for the ratings and home advantages. The optimization problem may be solved with standard techniques such as Newton's method.

Preseason ratings may be implemented via prior distribution factors in the optimization function. Their importance diminishes as the season progresses, and they are negligable by the end of the year. A strong prior distribution must be used to compensate for lack of enough single season data for the home advantages.

Time weighting is a debatable practice, however I believe that more recent games are generally better indications of a team's true strength. An exponential decay based time weighting is applied by premultiplying g by some weight w.

Bayesian Correction

The results obtained by the MLE will be predictive in nature since they are based entirely on the scores of games and contain no provision for teams that win, but don't always win big. Other teams will tend to perform in a way that is highly correlated with the strength of their opponent. Differences in style, coaching philosophy, and performance in close games can easily be overlooked if we look at scores alone.

The MLE ratings are used to create a prior distribution, which encodes the estimate of a team's strength based on looking at its game scores alone. The Bayesian correction is computed as an expected value using the actual wins and losses (and who they were against), combined with the prior distribution. This helps account for the possiblity of correlating performances (a team playing up or down to its opponent).

The advantage of the Bayesian approach is that it rewards teams that win consistently, no matter how they do it. The more games a team wins, the more confident the computer can be that scores are not so important. Ratings are less likely to be negatively impacted by beating a poor team. Furthermore, games involving well-matched opponents will naturally be given priority in determining the overall ratings.

In other words...

It is HPFM!

[BILLYFRED0000]

Having a hard time believing that Alvarado and Gilmer are the 13th and 15th best teams in the state.

Am I reading that right?

Gilmer is ranked ahead of Denton Guyer..

But when you do a matchup it's Guyer 34 Gilmer 33..

Someone please tell me I'm looking at this wrong.. If not then what a joke.

What it does in laymans terms is determine a probability of winning based on what the teams have shown. However the one correction it does not make is depth of the team. it projects what should happen with the starting teams playing an even rotation. It makes a big diff comparing 5A to 3A but inside each classification the discrepancy of depth is pared down and is negligible except in cases where a small 3A (Celina at 587) might play a large 3a (LL at 1100). But this is the exception rather than the rule. Depth is more even in most cases so that comparitive performance equals out.
I have followed his rankings system for a while and by this time of the year it plays out pretty well.

[BILLYFRED0000]

If you go to the playoffs it is already broken down in the brackets. You can select each team and it will give you their rankings and also the probability of winning the title.

[lbjacj]

Texans drop 34 spots but are still predicted to win 26-20 over Gonzales. May be right on!

[YTBulldogs]

Texans drop 34 spots but are still predicted to win 26-20 over Gonzales. May be right on!

What's Harris have WT fav by?

[YTBulldogs]

What's Harris have WT fav by?

Just found it. What I thought, Harris has WT by 11.

[Tejastrue]

Texans drop 34 spots but are still predicted to win 26-20 over Gonzales. May be right on!

Looks like from 4 to 10 in 3A. We all knew this would happen. Guess we'll need to make up the difference come Friday.

[BILLYFRED0000]

Looks like from 4 to 10 in 3A. We all knew this would happen. Guess we'll need to make up the difference come Friday.

Well that was a big drop. did not expect that myself. But I think the Texans will still be fine. ya know what I mean. I just like the way Massey lays out the rankings. And from year to year he is pretty close at the end of the year.