Massey 3A Top 25

[OldNavy]

Massey top 25, Region, Bracket

Alvarado, 1, D1
Coldspring, 3,D2
Gilmer, 2, D2
Wimberley, 4, D2
Chapel Hill, 3, D1
Celina, 2, D1
Snyder, 1, D2
Argyle, 2, D2
Seminole, 1, D1
Prosper, 2, D2
La Vega, 3, D1
Lindale, 2, D1
Carthage, 2, D2
Henderson, 2, D1
Gonzales, 4, D, 2
Navasota, 3, D1
Monahans, 1, D2
Sanger, 2, D1
Decatur, 1, D2
Lubbock Cooper, 1, D1
Van, 2, D2
Sealy, 3, D1
Lubbock Estacado, 1, D2
Bellville, 3, D2
Devine, 4, D2

[hollywood]

Massey top 25, Region, Bracket

Alvarado, 1, D1
Coldspring, 3,D2
Gilmer, 2, D2
Wimberley, 4, D2
Chapel Hill, 3, D1
Celina, 2, D1
Snyder, 1, D2
Argyle, 2, D2
Seminole, 1, D1
Prosper, 2, D2
La Vega, 3, D1
Lindale, 2, D1
Carthage, 2, D2
Henderson, 2, D1
Gonzales, 4, D, 2
Navasota, 3, D1
Monahans, 1, D2
Sanger, 2, D1
Decatur, 1, D2
Lubbock Cooper, 1, D1
Van, 2, D2
Sealy, 3, D1
Lubbock Estacado, 1, D2
Bellville, 3, D2
Devine, 4, D2


The question is... how will the list look at the end of the season.

[wimbo_pro]

The question is... how will the list look at the end of the season.

Who knows...but I bet both Champions come out of the top 5 or so on this list.

[wimbo_pro]

Old Navy..do you the address where you got that? I find the massey website to be confusing, this might be helpful in getting me going on it properly.

[toddg]

i dont give much creedence to polls..however my picks for both div's state champions are in the top ten. i miss the days when only district champs made it to the playoffs. there was no div 1 or 2..just outright non-debatable champs in each classification!

[wimbo_pro]

i dont give much creedence to polls..however my picks for both div's state champions are in the top ten. i miss the days when only district champs made it to the playoffs. there was no div 1 or 2..just outright non-debatable champs in each classification!

I gotcha Todd...but this isnt a poll. It's a ranking system, and I find it to be better than "polls" that are sometimes swayed by emotions and bias. The only thing it doesn't take into account is injuries and other "human elements" for up-coming games that might have an impact.

[waterboy]

While I think Massey is probably more accurate than AP polls, I still don't think you can say that they are anywhere near 100% accurate, maybe in the 75 to 80% range, in my opinion. One thing I think that is overlooked is the strength of the teams in a particular region, and seeing as not many of these teams play teams outside their region, one region may have many more strong teams, which will skew the computer rankings. That's the way I see it. I do know for certain that every team is still alive in the playoffs right now, and anything can happen on a given night (or day) in HS football. The ball teams play with is shaped kind of funny, making it bounce kind of funny, so really, who knows?

[wimbo_pro]

I'd like to see Massey's ratings in week 10 for the last 5 years, and then compare them to how things worked out. Of course, the best teams get better in the play offs, so obviously things change. But still, I would bet Massey's Top 5 would stack up well against AP or Campbells or anyone else's.

[Emerson1]

I'd like to see Massey's ratings in week 10 for the last 5 years, and then compare them to how things worked out. Of course, the best teams get better in the play offs, so obviously things change. But still, I would bet Massey's Top 5 would stack up well against AP or Campbells or anyone else's.
I would always take a computer poll over a human poll. I would bet that only 1 AP voter have seen more then 10 of the top 25 teams they rank.

[Txbroadcaster]

I would always take a computer poll over a human poll. I would bet that only 1 AP voter have seen more then 10 of the top 25 teams they rank.

problem is..computer poll are created by humans and how they deide what is an important set of stats in the formula

[OldNavy]

Old Navy..do you the address where you got that? I find the massey website to be confusing, this might be helpful in getting me going on it properly.
Wimbo, this is where I go: http://www.highschoolsports.net/massey/state/Texas/Football/Varsity/Boys/2011/
It is the ranking for the whole state of Texas. I go down the list and mark the 3A schools and their state rank. Then compile the list by hand. A year or so ago, they would break the list out by class, but I haven't found a way to do it this year.

If you click on "Your Team's Rank In 3A" it will tell you where they are in 3A. They are in numerical order by their state rank, it is just more confusing.

[wimbo_pro]

Wimbo, this is where I go: http://www.highschoolsports.net/massey/state/Texas/Football/Varsity/Boys/2011/
It is the ranking for the whole state of Texas. I go down the list and mark the 3A schools and their state rank. Then compile the list by hand. A year or so ago, they would break the list out by class, but I haven't found a way to do it this year.

If you click on "Your Team's Rank In 3A" it will tell you where they are in 3A. They are in numerical order by their state rank, it is just more confusing.

Thanks Old Navy.

[OldNavy]

problem is..computer poll are created by humans and how they deide what is an important set of stats in the formula

Not only that TXB, but we're trying to predict what 16, 17 and 18 year old young men will do. I just remember being impressed with the the simplified approach he takes and that it is 100% objective. There are obviously dozens or even 100s of variables, many if not most that are unknowable and Massey doesn't even try and consider them. But given all of that, the teams that bubble up to the top of Massey are pretty darn good. And nobody guessed, felt, had inside information, got a tip, or used their superior judgement.

Having said that, I'm sure glad they go ahead and play the games, no computer program is going to decide on how two teams compete when the wistle blows.

[COBRAFOOTBALL]

http://www.highschoolsports.net/massey/ratings/Alvarado-High-School-Alvarado-TX/Football/Varsity/Boys/2011/CFB76376/

Heres how i found my team.

[wimbo_pro]

http://www.highschoolsports.net/massey/ratings/Alvarado-High-School-Alvarado-TX/Football/Varsity/Boys/2011/CFB76376/

Heres how i found my team.

Thanks. And by the way...that shows why I think its possible you guys just might do it this year...Defense #1. Wow.

[wimbo_pro]

Not only that TXB, but we're trying to predict what 16, 17 and 18 year old young men will do. I just remember being impressed with the the simplified approach he takes and that it is 100% objective. There are obviously dozens or even 100s of variables, many if not most that are unknowable and Massey doesn't even try and consider them. But given all of that, the teams that bubble up to the top of Massey are pretty darn good. And nobody guessed, felt, had inside information, got a tip, or used their superior judgement.

Having said that, I'm sure glad they go ahead and play the games, no computer program is going to decide on how two teams compete when the wistle blows.

Exactly. It's as objective as you can get in a game that is usually governed by intangibles.

[SintonFan]

problem is..computer poll are created by humans and how they deide what is an important set of stats in the formula

Cool!
I wanna see a poll created by computers. That would be crazy.

[gatordaze]

Cool!
I wanna see a poll created by computers. That would be crazy.

The thing that can really skew a ranking lke this is a team that goes undefeated but allows their opponent to score late some coaches will call off the dogs and play kids that will not see the field in rhe playoffs. Deep teams that can perform well with 2nd and 3rd team players do not always have the best 11. I.would love to.see an analysis including only starters as it would.more acurately reflect the teams performance potential.

[OldNavy]

The thing that can really skew a ranking lke this is a team that goes undefeated but allows their opponent to score late some coaches will call off the dogs and play kids that will not see the field in rhe playoffs. Deep teams that can perform well with 2nd and 3rd team players do not always have the best 11. I.would love to.see an analysis including only starters as it would.more acurately reflect the teams performance potential.

Not as much as you would think, at least not in Massey. This link gives a brief description of how it works and specifically the Game Outcome Function. The formula is not there, but the outcome is and shows how it applies in many different score outcomes. http://masseyratings.com/theory/massey.htm#inputs

[Saggy Aggie]

Massey top 25, Region, Bracket

Alvarado, 1, D1
Coldspring, 3,D2
Gilmer, 2, D2
Wimberley, 4, D2
Chapel Hill, 3, D1
Celina, 2, D1
Snyder, 1, D2
Argyle, 2, D2
Seminole, 1, D1
Prosper, 2, D2
La Vega, 3, D1
Lindale, 2, D1
Carthage, 2, D2
Henderson, 2, D1
Gonzales, 4, D, 2
Navasota, 3, D1
Monahans, 1, D2
Sanger, 2, D1
Decatur, 1, D2
Lubbock Cooper, 1, D1
Van, 2, D2
Sealy, 3, D1
Lubbock Estacado, 1, D2
Bellville, 3, D2
Devine, 4, D2

Just curious so i looked it up:

26. Paris
27. Robinson
28. Columbia

[hollywood]

i dont give much creedence to polls..however my picks for both div's state champions are in the top ten. i miss the days when only district champs made it to the playoffs. there was no div 1 or 2..just outright non-debatable champs in each classification!

I agree!

[hollywood]

Who knows...but I bet both Champions come out of the top 5 or so on this list.

wimbo_pro, I agree. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if a team from the top 14 wins either. La Vega, Lindale, Carthage, Henderson are all well coached and athletic and have a chance above the top 10. And never count out Celina with their physical ball control tactic.

[defense51]

i miss the days when only district champs made it to the playoffs. there was no div 1 or 2..just outright non-debatable champs in each classification! blah! blah! blah!

[SintonFan]

The thing that can really skew a ranking lke this is a team that goes undefeated but allows their opponent to score late some coaches will call off the dogs and play kids that will not see the field in rhe playoffs. Deep teams that can perform well with 2nd and 3rd team players do not always have the best 11. I.would love to.see an analysis including only starters as it would.more acurately reflect the teams performance potential.

I should use my formula just to see how it stacks up to Massey. Gotta find it first. Haven't used it for almost 10 years. Mine is pure stats based. I might adjust it by quarter to see how it changes the results.