Cutoff number projections?

[Old Tiger]

What is anyone hearing?

[SHSBulldog00]

440-999
or
435-994

Did hear that 5A could stay at 2,065 due to the opening of new school's.(Mark Cousins)

[Old Tiger]

Rockdale is going to be a tiny 3a then.

[Matthew328]

The more #'s that come in the more I think it goes over 1000

[YTBulldogs]

Rockdale is going to be a tiny 3a then.

Couldn't they find schools within a region with a 450-650 enrollment to form a district and prevent them facing a 900+ enrollments in district?

[SHSBulldog00]

The more #'s that come in the more I think it goes over 1000

How high do you think it might climb?

[holcomb2012]

Looks like Lampasas is safe for now

[bigwood33]

The more #'s that come in the more I think it goes over 1000
Lest we forget, you thought the same thing last alignment too. One thing is certain, if you stick with that thought, you will eventually be right.

[MGAR]

I wouldn't mind seeing the bottom number 450.. That'd be great!

[bigwood33]

I wouldn't mind seeing the bottom number 450.. That'd be great!
But it won't be. I hope that the UIL makes the enrollment numbers public so that we can make some more "educated guesses". It all starts with 5A. By rule, there WILL BE no more than 245 5A schools (currently 245). The UIL almost always "fills" 5A. Then, they will start filling 4A and that number will be about 240 schools (currently 236). So, if we knew what the official enrollments of all schools, you can do some simple math and start getting pretty close. So, when looking at the numbers it is good to remember that you MUST start at the top and work your way down. The biggest 245 (never more and usually not less) will make up 5A, then the next 240 (or so) will be 4A. If you draw a line there, you will be pretty darned close to the top of 3A. You can also figure that the number of 2A teams will remain about the same. Once you have established about where the bottom will be for 4A, figure that the bottom of 2A will be 200 (+/- 5) and fill up 2A with the same number of teams as last time, that will be a pretty good gauge of where the 3A numbers will fall.

[Matthew328]

Lest we forget, you thought the same thing last alignment too. One thing is certain, if you stick with that thought, you will eventually be right.
If we didn't have all he opt ups I woulda been right!!! Lot fewer opt ups this year.....Laredo not opting up, Ft Bend not opting up, FWISD not opting up Dunbar....Houston ISD is the only one I haven't heard from....with all those not opting up it has a trickle down effect..

Now that being said the UIL could easily change their constitution to allow for more than 245 schools in a classification..if that happens all bets are off

[bigwood33]

If the opt ups had not happened, the top of 3A would have been lower...not higher. Don't be fooled, 4A WILL be about 240. You ARE right about 1 thing, the constitution can be changed but not without asking the superintendents what they think about it and that hasn't happened.

[Matthew328]

right now I'm going to go 5A to 245...(no basketball only schools there)....4A I will start at 240 and work up as needed..there is one basketball only school that has to be accounted for (Fox Tech)...3A is waayyy trickier...lots more wiggle room there....but I think once you knock off the top 485 schools (give or take some for opt ups) you got the number, figuring out the bottom number is the real booger...but if after you take the top 485ish schools if the biggest school left is at 1020 well you pretty much know that's where 3A will start....I still got a LOT more data to collect though...lol

I got confused on my opt ups and what it does to the #...lol you are right it does make it lower...it still threw my dang calculations off last time...it'll be a little better this year..

[bigwood33]

right now I'm going to go 5A to 245...(no basketball only schools there)....4A I will start at 240 and work up as needed..there is one basketball only school that has to be accounted for (Fox Tech)...3A is waayyy trickier...lots more wiggle room there....but I think once you knock off the top 485 schools (give or take some for opt ups) you got the number.

I got confused on my opt ups and what it does to the #...lol you are right it does make it lower...it still threw my dang calculations off last time...it'll be a little better this year..
NOW you're heading in the right direction :iagree:
If there are as many schools as you say that will not opt up, they may be offset by the new schools that will be coming in as either 4A or 5A, we COULD have the top of 3A drop for the 1st time in several years. If that happens, the bottom number MAY go down as well but until we see some official numbers, it will be impossible to figure.

[Dogman_1969]

Rockdale will probably end up a very small 3A school again and will probably end up in the district with a Navasota, Giddings, Caldwell, La Grange, Smithville and Madisonville. About every few years uil seems to put a 7 team district together so that time is coming.

[Coach BS]

I'm thinking Rockdale, Taylor, Salado, Caldwell, Giddings, Smithville, LaGrange

[Txbroadcaster]

I think the top end of 3A is going to be bigger than expected...I think they are going to to stretch 3A as much as possible to push the division into 3A by 2014

[gtownfan]

I'm thinking Rockdale, Taylor, Salado, Caldwell, Giddings, Smithville, LaGrange

That would be interesting. Two new teams.

But usually we (Giddings, La Grange, Smithville) go north with Rockdale, Caldwell, Navasota or go south with Bellville, Columbus, Sealy. I would be interesting to go south and be in Region 4 again.

[Old Tiger]

nm..