Mavericks chances?

[Farmersfan]

What is everyone's opinion of the chances at this point for each team to win this series. The media has a bad habit of proclaiming the ODDS of winning it all after every single game. It always seems that the team that wins "The Next" game has a huge odds advantage of winning it all. Regardless of whether it is game 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7.
I'm thinking that because each team has won 1 road game and 1 home game in this series that home court advantage is not such a great advantage. So right now I will say the Mavs have about a 40% chance of winning it all because at least one win will have to be in Miami. If the Mavs can pull out the win tonight then don't their odds of winning it all go up to about 75%?
Predictions for tonight and odds for winning it all at this point?

[Txbroadcaster]

Heat still have a slight advantage with 2 out of 3 at home..like you said game 5 is the decider IMO( though the Heat could easily win 2 at home)

I do think no matter what the series is going 7

[GrTigers6]

Originally posted by Farmersfan
What is everyone's opinion of the chances at this point for each team to win this series. The media has a bad habit of proclaiming the ODDS of winning it all after every single game. It always seems that the team that wins "The Next" game has a huge odds advantage of winning it all. Regardless of whether it is game 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7.
I'm thinking that because each team has won 1 road game and 1 home game in this series that home court advantage is not such a great advantage. So right now I will say the Mavs have about a 40% chance of winning it all because at least one win will have to be in Miami. If the Mavs can pull out the win tonight then don't their odds of winning it all go up to about 75%?
Predictions for tonight and odds for winning it all at this point? They were saying that in NBA history the team that won game 3 of the finals had always won the series. I find that hard to believe, but if that is the case then that stat has to be broken at some point. because the only 100 % chance of winning the finals by the game # you win would be game 7.:D
As far as the Mavs chances, I think your math is probably close on percentages but from someone who doesnt play percentages much I think the Mavs have as good of a chance to win as the Heat. It has been a very close series and if the mavs get on there 3 point streak like they did with the lakers then they could win out. Now in saying that, the heat could get on a streak as well and win out. So basically to put it in percentage terms I say they have a 50% chance, They will either win it or not:D

[Old Tiger]

if LeBron doesn't show up they have a great chance. But if LeBron shows up they have little chance.

[MGAR]

A random bet...

If the Mavs win, the Burger King CEO will work in a Pizza Hut for a day.

If the Heat win, the Pizza Hut CEO will work in a Burger King.

[BILLYFRED0000]

IMHO, the mavs have a chance. Their D has been very good. Their shooting has been below par for them. If their O comes up a little say to 95 points and d stays the same then yes they can win it all. But they have to keep the d on. that is frustrating the Miami players and causing wade and james to play hero ball. I will take that everytime.

[STANG RED]

I think the Heat certainly have the better starting personnel over all, which means they should win. BUT I also think the Mavs have gotten into their heads a little, and have them back on their heels. However, game 5 is a must win for Mavs, and not so much for the Heat. If the Mavs manage to slip by them tonight, the series will go 7 and it's a 50/50. If either team wins in a blowout, they will take it in 6. To answer your question, I'd give the Mavs a 40-45% chance right now.
Lebron is the wildcard tonight. If he goes off on the Mavs, and the others just contribute with solid play, things might get real ugly quickly. But then again, if he tries too hard and he's not hitting his shots, he'll only take away shots from everybody else, and the Mavs could blow it wide open. It ought to be fun watching how it all plays out.

[Txbroadcaster]

Originally posted by STANG RED
I think the Heat certainly have the better starting personnel over all, which means they should win. BUT I also think the Mavs have gotten into their heads a little, and have them back on their heels. However, game 5 is a must win for Mavs, and not so much for the Heat. If the Mavs manage to slip by them tonight, the series will go 7 and it's a 50/50. If either team wins in a blowout, they will take it in 6. To answer your question, I'd give the Mavs a 40-45% chance right now.
Lebron is the wildcard tonight. If he goes off on the Mavs, and the others just contribute with solid play, things might get real ugly quickly. But then again, if he tries too hard and he's not hitting his shots, he'll only take away shots from everybody else, and the Mavs could blow it wide open. It ought to be fun watching how it all plays out.

I disagree that the Heat can lose this game and it is no biggie..Right now they are the one being asked all the Q's about collapses and not being able to finish, how bad James is playing and so on..if they lose tonight that gets intensified 100 times and James has already proven he cannot handle that pressure

and both Wade and Bosh has went off and the game has not been ugly so not sure why if James goes off but the other two are just solid then it gets ugly

[icu812]

Originally posted by STANG RED
I think the Heat certainly have the better starting personnel over all, which means they should win. BUT I also think the Mavs have gotten into their heads a little, and have them back on their heels. However, game 5 is a must win for Mavs, and not so much for the Heat. If the Mavs manage to slip by them tonight, the series will go 7 and it's a 50/50. If either team wins in a blowout, they will take it in 6. To answer your question, I'd give the Mavs a 40-45% chance right now.
Lebron is the wildcard tonight. If he goes off on the Mavs, and the others just contribute with solid play, things might get real ugly quickly. But then again, if he tries too hard and he's not hitting his shots, he'll only take away shots from everybody else, and the Mavs could blow it wide open. It ought to be fun watching how it all plays out.

I really think the Mavs are trying to bait LBJ into trying to be the #1 option on the Heat. I for one would certainly rather have the basketball in LBJ's hands than in Wade's.

[MGAR]

Justin Bieber is expected to be in the house tonight.

Is he the next Spike Lee?

On to the game.

IMO winner of this game takes series. :)

[kaorder1999]

mavs chances arent great. Winning two of three against heat will be super tough with two of those games being in Miami

[Farmersfan]

I listened to some interesting coversation on The Ticket a little while ago. They revealed some information I was not aware of. In the BEST Cluch Players rankings in the NBA this season #1 thru #4 best +/- players in the NBA are all Mavs.

Here are the rankings of Mavs and Heat players:

1. J. Kidd +119
2. J. Terry +118
3. D. Nowitzki +116
4. T. Chandler +92
14. S. Marion +61

15. C. Bosh +60
22. D. Wade +52
28. L. James +46

FG%:

#12. T. Chandler .657%
#38. J. Terry .51%
#39 S. Marion .50%
#43 Anthony .50%
#63 M. Bibby .47%
#64 C. Bosh .47%
#72 J. Kidd .46%
#73 D. Nowitzki .46%
#93 L. James .43%
#120 D. Wade .39%

[icu812]

Originally posted by kaorder1999
mavs chances arent great. Winning two of three against heat will be super tough with two of those games being in Miami

I think home court is almost meaningless with these two teams. Both are just as good on the road as they are at home. All year the Mavs have really played better on the road. I think if the Mavs win tonight they win the series in 6.

[MGAR]

That's good stuff Farmer.

I wonder what they based "clutch" off of?

[icu812]

Originally posted by MGAR
That's good stuff Farmer.

I wonder what they based "clutch" off of?

Probably the 4th Quarter.

[STANG RED]

Originally posted by Txbroadcaster
I disagree that the Heat can lose this game and it is no biggie..Right now they are the one being asked all the Q's about collapses and not being able to finish, how bad James is playing and so on..if they lose tonight that gets intensified 100 times and James has already proven he cannot handle that pressure

and both Wade and Bosh has went off and the game has not been ugly so not sure why if James goes off but the other two are just solid then it gets ugly

I never said its a no biggie, if the Heat lose. But it's certainly a whole lot more of a biggie if the Mavs lose, forcing them to win 2 back to back on the road. No doubt its a must win for the Mavs tonight!

[Farmersfan]

Originally posted by MGAR
That's good stuff Farmer.

I wonder what they based "clutch" off of?



Last 5 minutes of the game if neither team is up or down by 5 or more points!


http://www.82games.com/1011/CSORT3.HTM

[Phil C]

I still favor the Heat. The thing is I expect and am sure the Mavs do too is that Lebron will play a great game. The only way for the Mavs to win is that they will have to start hitting the open shots like they are capable. They have missed too many the last few games even the ones they won. Of course you can't make them all but they have missed way too many.
If Mavs win and go up 3-2 I still favor the Heat to win it all but I give the Mavs 47% to take it. If they lose and go down by 2-3 I give them 35% to take it.

[Farmersfan]

Originally posted by Phil C
I still favor the Heat. The thing is I expect and am sure the Mavs do too is that Lebron will play a great game. The only way for the Mavs to win is that they will have to start hitting the open shots like they are capable. They have missed too many the last few games even the ones they won. Of course you can't make them all but they have missed way too many.
If Mavs win and go up 3-2 I still favor the Heat to win it all but I give the Mavs 47% to take it. If they lose and go down by 2-3 I give them 35% to take it.




I would say the Mavs missed about 20 shots in game #4 that were either wide open or barely covered. (by barely covered I mean shots they will normally make and the defender had no chance to block the shot). This doesn't include all the other shots that were tightly contested. The Heat defense is getting worst and worst in each game. I wonder if the Mavs have figured something out or are they getting tired?

[STANG RED]

Originally posted by Farmersfan
I would say the Mavs missed about 20 shots in game #4 that were either wide open or barely covered. (by barely covered I mean shots they will normally make and the defender had no chance to block the shot). This doesn't include all the other shots that were tightly contested. The Heat defense is getting worst and worst in each game. I wonder if the Mavs have figured something out or are they getting tired?

All very true, but the Heat have missed alot of wide open shots as well. I bet Bosh missed three easy layups the other night, just in the second half alone. Both teams are having about the same problems with missing open shots.

[eagles_victory]

Originally posted by Farmersfan
I would say the Mavs missed about 20 shots in game #4 that were either wide open or barely covered. (by barely covered I mean shots they will normally make and the defender had no chance to block the shot). This doesn't include all the other shots that were tightly contested. The Heat defense is getting worst and worst in each game. I wonder if the Mavs have figured something out or are they getting tired? You have been saying this all series Mavs miss easy shots Mavs miss easy shots. At what point does it become where you are what you are if you havent made clutch shots in 4 games when are you going to start. Noone talks about Stevenson hitting huge open shots to keep the Mavs in it in game 4. If I was a Mavs fan I want him logging 20 to 25 minutes.



Originally posted by icu812
I really think the Mavs are trying to bait LBJ into trying to be the #1 option on the Heat. I for one would certainly rather have the basketball in LBJ's hands than in Wade's. I don't think so if your the Mavs you love how passive Lebron has been because it would be easy for both of them to take 20 shots instead of Bron taking 11 and Haslem and Miller taking a bunch of shots. Besides all Stevenson did was answer a question honestly he wasn't trash talking at all.Jim Rome asked a question he answered it and the media just ran with it. But like I said at some point you are what you are and Miami has been Lebron struggling through 4 games esp 4 so who knows what happens.

[Farmersfan]

Originally posted by STANG RED
All very true, but the Heat have missed alot of wide open shots as well. I bet Bosh missed three easy layups the other night, just in the second half alone. Both teams are having about the same problems with missing open shots.



The Heat give up 37% from 3pt range in these playoffs and 41.8% from the field. The Mavs aren't shooting that well so far in this series. The Mavs are the highest rated offensive team the Heat have met so far and yet they are shooting below the Heat average in the playoffs. So either the Heat defense has picked it up a notch or two against the Mavs or the Mavs are just not hitting the shots when they get the opportunities. Since we all see the missed wide open shots I choose to believe it's simply a matter of the Mav shooters not being in their usual groove. Besides, the Heat gave up 88 pts a game against the other 3 teams in the playoffs and Dallas is scoring 88 points a game on average. On the other hand the Mavs gave up 92 pts a game in the other 3 series but the Heat are scoring 89 pts a game on average. So it's the Mavs D that has stepped up a notch or two and not the Heat.

How's this killing some time? :D :D

[Farmersfan]

Originally posted by eagles_victory
You have been saying this all series Mavs miss easy shots Mavs miss easy shots. At what point does it become where you are what you are if you havent made clutch shots in 4 games when are you going to start. Noone talks about Stevenson hitting huge open shots to keep the Mavs in it in game 4. If I was a Mavs fan I want him logging 20 to 25 minutes.
.



You are asking if or when a 4 game trend becomes what a team is. Well I prefer to look at a 82 game trend or at least a 16 game trend against the other 3 playoff opponents. I know it's a different defense and different scenerios but the facts are the facts. The Mavs shooters have been colder than usual in this series and they are tied 2-2. It might be the challenge of the Heat defense that is causing it and they certainly have been playing the Mavs shooter tighter than any other team the Mavs have played but those aren't the shots I'm talking about. With the passing of each game in this series it seems the Mavs are getting more and more wide open looks at the basket and yet they aren't making those shots. That's why they are shooting more shots but their percentage is going down. Are the old legs getting tired? could be.

[eagles_victory]

Originally posted by Farmersfan
You are asking if or when a 4 game trend becomes what a team is. Well I prefer to look at a 82 game trend or at least a 16 game trend against the other 3 playoff opponents. I know it's a different defense and different scenerios but the facts are the facts. The Mavs shooters have been colder than usual in this series and they are tied 2-2. It might be the challenge of the Heat defense that is causing it and they certainly have been playing the Mavs shooter tighter than any other team the Mavs have played but those aren't the shots I'm talking about. With the passing of each game in this series it seems the Mavs are getting more and more wide open looks at the basket and yet they aren't making those shots. That's why they are shooting more shots but their percentage is going down. Are the old legs getting tired? could be. Every series is different this one has beena grinder. But you kind of expect one team to break out offensively and have a good offensive game over the course of a series. Hasnt happened yet but it could tonight. With this series you never know.

[forum_guy]

Mavs are averaging about 88 pts a game this series. I think i heard their playoff avg before this series was about 99. That is an 11 pt difference which is alot. It depends how you want to take that. Is it the defense from the heat or are the mavs not hitting shots. And if its because they arent making shots, is that because of the defense? One thing is forsure, I know the heat definitely like their chances when the games are in the 80's. Stevenson definitely sparked Dallas last game, we will have to see who that player will be tonight as we know forsure Lebron wont play that terrible again.

[Farmersfan]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by eagles_victory
[B]But you kind of expect one team to break out offensively and have a good offensive game over the course of a series. Hasnt happened yet but it could tonight. [QUOTE]




Glad to meet you Nostradamus......:D :D

[eagles_victory]

Originally posted by Farmersfan
[QUOTE]Originally posted by eagles_victory
[B]But you kind of expect one team to break out offensively and have a good offensive game over the course of a series. Hasnt happened yet but it could tonight. [QUOTE]




Glad to meet you Nostradamus......:D :D Just had a feeling at some point too many good players on the court for the defense to keep winning out.

[icu812]

I think the Mavs end this in game six. Those of us who have watched the Mavs all year know that usually when they have a good shooting game it is followed by a couple more. The Mavs have won 6 out of their last 7 road games. They have also been clutch in elimination games so far in the playoffs. I think it'll be another close game but the Mavs are better than the Heat when it comes to winning close games. Plus the Mavs team is loaded with vets who want, maybe even need a championship to cement their legacy as all time greats.

I see foul trouble on Chandler with no Haywood to back him up being one of the few things which could be a huge problem.

Btw, how would things look right now if Butler/Roddy/Haywood were all healthy and played a full season together?

[eagles_victory]

Originally posted by icu812
I think the Mavs end this in game six. Those of us who have watched the Mavs all year know that usually when they have a good shooting game it is followed by a couple more. The Mavs have won 6 out of their last 7 road games. They have also been clutch in elimination games so far in the playoffs. I think it'll be another close game but the Mavs are better than the Heat when it comes to winning close games. Plus the Mavs team is loaded with vets who want, maybe even need a championship to cement their legacy as all time greats.

I see foul trouble on Chandler with no Haywood to back him up being one of the few things which could be a huge problem.

Btw, how would things look right now if Butler/Roddy/Haywood were all healthy and played a full season together? Butler helps a lot Roddy recieved DNPs last year in the playoffs doubt he makes much of a difference. The team lost out in the first round last year with those 3 and is on the verge of winning it all this year so Im not sure what difference it makes really sometimes less is more.

[big daddy russ]

Mavs chances look great. Like I've said before, I'm pulling for Dallas in this series, so I hope LeBron doesn't get things going. That would make for a tough win, even though they have two games to do it.

[LionFan72]

50/50, at this time, only takes one win.................

[Emerson1]

JJ >>>>>>>> Roddy

Guy would be averaging 5 turnovers a game right now. He could play, he is 100% healthy right now.

[Phil C]

I still favor the Heat but feel the Mavs have a 47% chance. If they keep playing like they are playing (and it would help if just 5% better) they could probably do it. The Heat have the advantage that the next 2 games (if necessary) are in Miami but at the same time the Mavs have proven they could win in Miami in game 2. So far the Mavs have done what they needed in splitting with Miami at home and then getting two out of three games in Dallas. If anyone had told me or even the Mavs before the series started that they would have a 3-2 edge going to Miami at this point it probably would have been gladly taken.
Now at 3-2 Dallas has an even bigger edge than when Miami was 1-0 and 2-1.
Miami will be the one pressured to play hard in game 6 because if they lost it will be over while the Mavs just have to split one. Last year Boston was ahead 3-2 but lost two straight to LA in LA and lost the series. We will see what happens. But the Mavs have been good winning on the road this year.

[Emerson1]

AAC was at 113 Db on Thursday. There is only 1 aspect of home court advantage that Dallas needs to worry about.

[TheDOCTORdre]

its going seven...and what happens in seven is up in the air after that. As far as game 6 goes, I gotta believe that the extra day of rest benefits the Heat. The way the Heat play defense it took a toll on them in games 4 and 5 when they didn't have the extra days rest. So that being said I think the Heat is on tomorrow night and forces a game 7

[Emerson1]

Really? You don't think it benefits the 30+ year old legs of Kidd, Marion and Dirk more? And an extra day for Dirk to get full energy back.

[icu812]

Originally posted by Emerson1
JJ >>>>>>>> Roddy

Guy would be averaging 5 turnovers a game right now. He could play, he is 100% healthy right now.

Yes he's healthy now. The point was his injury to start the season basically cost him a year of experience. He's not ready yet because he didn't get the necessary minutes. I really like JJ but I think Roddy has a much higher ceiling but your correct right now JJ > Roddy. Still though he can do things athletically that no other Mav can do. I'm still not sold he's a PG though.

[TheDOCTORdre]

Originally posted by Emerson1
Really? You don't think it benefits the 30+ year old legs of Kidd, Marion and Dirk more? And an extra day for Dirk to get full energy back.

look at the games the Heat have won, games 1 and 3. Game 1 came after a four day layoff and game 3 came after a 2 day layoff...I tend to agree with the extra day helps age but I think this year is the exception and not the rule based on how the Heat play D

[eagles_victory]

Originally posted by Phil C
I still favor the Heat but feel the Mavs have a 47% chance. If they keep playing like they are playing (and it would help if just 5% better) they could probably do it. The Heat have the advantage that the next 2 games (if necessary) are in Miami but at the same time the Mavs have proven they could win in Miami in game 2. So far the Mavs have done what they needed in splitting with Miami at home and then getting two out of three games in Dallas. If anyone had told me or even the Mavs before the series started that they would have a 3-2 edge going to Miami at this point it probably would have been gladly taken.
Now at 3-2 Dallas has an even bigger edge than when Miami was 1-0 and 2-1.
Miami will be the one pressured to play hard in game 6 because if they lost it will be over while the Mavs just have to split one. Last year Boston was ahead 3-2 but lost two straight to LA in LA and lost the series. We will see what happens. But the Mavs have been good winning on the road this year. Phil you said it was over after game 1.

[icu812]

Haywood likely for Game 6. If he can give the Mavs 5-10 quality minutes it would be huge. He did a nice job defending Bosh in the first few games and it allows Chandler to be more aggressive in the 1st half.


http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/nba/news/story?id=6651711

The combination of Kidd/Jet/Marion/Dirk/Chandler has been dominant all year. That combo only averages about 10 min. a game together and that is the closing unit which has had their way with the Heat. There must be a reason they only get 10 min. together but with the Mavs only 1 win away I wonder if they get more time. Its hard to mess with what is working but the Mavs coaching staff isn't shy about trying something they believe in. I really believe the key to winning game 6 is limiting the amount of time JJ and Terry are on the floor together. Neither can stay in front of Wade. IMO, the Mavs need to play zone more when they play together or play Stephenson and JJ.

[TheDOCTORdre]

Originally posted by icu812
Haywood likely for Game 6. If he can give the Mavs 5-10 quality minutes it would be huge. He did a nice job defending Bosh in the first few games and it allows Chandler to be more aggressive in the 1st half.



I am amazed that the Heat haven't tried to attack Chandler more and try to get him into foul trouble when Haywood has been out of the lineup

[eagles_victory]

Originally posted by TheDOCTORdre
I am amazed that the Heat haven't tried to attack Chandler more and try to get him into foul trouble when Haywood has been out of the lineup nm

[coach]

Originally posted by eagles_victory
Phil you said it was over after game 1.

so did everyone else....espn was ready to give the trophy to miami....

[eagles_victory]

Originally posted by coach
so did everyone else....espn was ready to give the trophy to miami.... They were ready to give it to Dallas after game 2. NBA playoffs the old saying goes "After you win a game you feel like you will never lose again, After you lose a game you feel like you will never win again"

[Phil C]

I still favor the Heat to win the series. Tomorrow they will be playing their best game of the series and will force a game 7. They are desperate and that unfortunately will bring out the best in them. I would love to be wrong but unfortunately I have a good feel for this sort of thing. :(

[STANG RED]

Originally posted by Phil C
I still favor the Heat to win the series. Tomorrow they will be playing their best game of the series and will force a game 7. They are desperate and that unfortunately will bring out the best in them. I would love to be wrong but unfortunately I have a good feel for this sort of thing. :(

Keep on keeping on Phil. Youve said pretty much this same thing for the first 5 games, and the Mavs are up 3-2. Dont you dare change your mind, and pick the Mavs to win, or you'll jinx it all.;)

[icu812]

Phil C's "good feel for this sort of thing" vs Dirk

Nowitzki has played in 19 games with the chance to eliminate an opponent, winning 12, including the last six in a row. Of those 19 chances, 12 have come on the road, the Mavs have won seven of those, including the last four in a row.

Gotta go with Dirk.

I'm more concerned with what Bill Simmons at espn says "ABC & ESPN: Don't tell anyone, but if there's a Game 7, Disney makes an extra $110 billion (all numbers approximate). You might see everyone on Dallas foul out in Game 6. I think Tyson Chandler already has 2 fouls and the game doesn't start for another 48 hours."

He's obviously exaggerating the numbers to make a point but still a valid point.

http://m.espn.go.com/nba/story?w=1apth&storyId=6649101&i=TOP&topslot=1

And no I'm not already blaming the refs............yet
:D

[eagles_victory]

Originally posted by icu812
Phil C's "good feel for this sort of thing" vs Dirk

Nowitzki has played in 19 games with the chance to eliminate an opponent, winning 12, including the last six in a row. Of those 19 chances, 12 have come on the road, the Mavs have won seven of those, including the last four in a row.

Gotta go with Dirk.

I'm more concerned with what Bill Simmons at espn says "ABC & ESPN: Don't tell anyone, but if there's a Game 7, Disney makes an extra $110 billion (all numbers approximate). You might see everyone on Dallas foul out in Game 6. I think Tyson Chandler already has 2 fouls and the game doesn't start for another 48 hours."

He's obviously exaggerating the numbers to make a point but still a valid point.

http://m.espn.go.com/nba/story?w=1apth&storyId=6649101&i=TOP&topslot=1

And no I'm not already blaming the refs............yet
:D I don't think it will be bad other than a few calls a team gets because they are the home team.

[Phil C]

Originally posted by STANG RED
Keep on keeping on Phil. Youve said pretty much this same thing for the first 5 games, and the Mavs are up 3-2. Dont you dare change your mind, and pick the Mavs to win, or you'll jinx it all.;)

Hey STANG I predict the Mavs will win the decisive Game 7 this Tuesday night!!

:)