Data Poll is updated

[sinton66]

Sinton climbed back into #1, Midland Greenwood now at #2.

[bulldog65]

Everman dropped to #34 after winning by 40. This poll kills me!

[sinton66]

bulldog65, remember this one goes primarily by how you do against his predicted spread. I didn't see what he had for Everman in the last game, but if you dropped, I'd assume he had you picked by more than 40. The rest of Everman's schedule should rebuild his confidence in you, but will be a challenge to beat the spreads. Looks like he's expecting Glen Rose to give you the best remaining test, and has you currently picked by +51 in that one.

[bulldog65]

I really wasn't paying attention until last week, but we won our last two games by a combined score of 109-7. We dropped 6 spots to #34 from last week.

[bulldog65]

I really don't have a problem with his top ten except for Marlin & Atlanta.

[sinton66]

He pretty well sticks to the numbers, but the spread performance has a dramatic effect in some cases. He's also using a different basic model than last year, I haven't decided whether I like this one better or not. I don't even pretend to understand his method, but he had you guys picked by 39 over Kennedale, that started the decline. "Trending" comes into play also, which is where he's looking at the spreads as important. He does get out of whack occasionally, but usually he's comfortably close enough to use with a good dose of "gut".

[PPHSfan]

The Newspaper reported the Van Alstyne-Sanger game from the week before last backwards. He input Van Alstyne as the winners of that game 18-10 which threw the district 9 numbers out of whack. I emailed Brian but I guess he didn't get it. He shows Van Alstyne 5-1 when they are actually 4-2 and of course that throws Sangers record off as well. I am pretty sure only these two districts are the ones effected, but with all of the different math formulas that are involved in Data Poll, who knows. One backwards score could send the whole mess into a time warp. LOL

[Pudlugger]

sinton66:
bulldog65, remember this one goes primarily by how you do against his predicted spreadLa Grange beat Manor 53-14 exceeding the predicted 27 point spread by 2 tds, so why did they drop from 37 to 40? :mad:
I question the veracity of this poll when a team that is winning big keeps falling in the rankings. :rolleyes:
The Leopards lost their first game to a very good team, Yoakum. The Leps were not ready in week Zero,but they have won 5 straight since against some good teams. :cool:
Their defense is playing especially well now that everyone has settled into their respective roles. Since Yoakum, they have given up only 8 points/game. Obviously the way to rise in the rankings is to keep winning deep into the play-offs. The real test of a team is in the play-offs when every opponent is tough. Good luck to the Leps Friday night against a fast Elgin team. eek! wink :D

<small>[ October 15, 2002, 08:18 AM: Message edited by: Pudlugger ]</small>

[cntryguy35]

Bulldog 65 just what is your problem with Marlin? Just because they have lost 2 games? University (4A) And very good Burnet in OT. If not for an offsides on the kickoff Marlin probably would have won that. They had Burnet pinned at the 10 yard line and were called for offsides, Burnet returned the following kick for a touchdown. Now what is your problem?

[vet93]

I have to disagree with the datapolls #2 pick. I have all of the respect in the world for Greenwood and the job that coach Purser has done this year. I just don' think that they are the second best team in the state. I think that there are several teams outside of region I that are better and a few teams that are within the region that may be better. I do think that they are top 10, just not #2.

[pirate4state]

can someone please give me the url for this site. thanks.

[PPHSfan]

pirate4state:
can someone please give me the url for this site. thanks.http://home1.gte.net/cpq29gpl/

[Ranger Mom]

vet93:
I have to disagree with the datapolls #2 pick. I have all of the respect in the world for Greenwood and the job that coach Purser has done this year. I just don' think that they are the second best team in the state. I think that there are several teams outside of region I that are better and a few teams that are within the region that may be better. I do think that they are top 10, just not #2.Vet, I have to agree!! So far they have caught some good breaks, but they have a lot of improving to do before they are ahead of several teams that are under them. Don't get me wrong, they are very talented, but they are young and have a lot to learn still. Win or lose, I am behind them 100% - this is the most dedicated team to come out of Greenwood in the 10 years I have been there!! GO RANGERS!!

[WreckinCrew]

bulldog65:
I really don't have a problem with his top ten except for Marlin & Atlanta.Marlin is a very good football team and after losing to a #12 4a school and #7 3a school, they bounced back and beat a #1 4a school and knocked them down to #6. How can they not be ranked ???

[HornetPride]

Caldwell wins four straight and garners little respect in Data Poll and then gets beat by 21 to Cameron and they move us up to No. 59? Oooooooooo-kay....

[vet93]

By the way RangerMom, I am rooting for the Rangers to do well. Past history tells me that Region I and in particular the western half of region I has had a difficult time competing against the teams back east. Hopefull someone from the West like Greenwood, Sweetwater, Snyder etc...will buck this trend and bring back the respect that west texas 3a used to have in days gone by. One thing that I like about Greenwood in regards to competing with the teams in the east is that they have good team speed. Not just Audas and Wilbur but they have lots of kids that can move to the football. One thing that I worry about (and coach Purser has said this himself) is that depth is a concern. Depth is much more critical in the playoffs because you are playing teams that can put 11 quality kids on the field so many times it comes down to who is the freshest in the second half. This is especially important with these teams who are running the spread offense. To defend against this offense you have to be able to run and run for the entire game which can be exhausting. Last year, Bridgeport ran us all over the field.


Ranger Mom:

vet93:
I have to disagree with the datapolls #2 pick. I have all of the respect in the world for Greenwood and the job that coach Purser has done this year. I just don' think that they are the second best team in the state. I think that there are several teams outside of region I that are better and a few teams that are within the region that may be better. I do think that they are top 10, just not #2.Vet, I have to agree!! So far they have caught some good breaks, but they have a lot of improving to do before they are ahead of several teams that are under them. Don't get me wrong, they are very talented, but they are young and have a lot to learn still. Win or lose, I am behind them 100% - this is the most dedicated team to come out of Greenwood in the 10 years I have been there!! GO RANGERS!!

[Phil C]

I agree with Bulldog Player and I admit I don't understand the rating system in some of the polls. It is just that any poll that doesn't have Everman in at least the top five (even after their upset loss) is hard for me to understand.

[pirate4state]

thanks PPHSfan!

[BigKat20]

Hey sinton66/ Do you remember the Bearkats? I think we gave you'll a good game. Congrats on being #1 in state, you'll deserve it. Well laters and good luck on all your games.

[Matthew328]

DataPoll is strictly by the numbers....it doesn't factor anything else in at all...for example the fact that Everman called off the dogs after going up 35-0 at the half against Castleberry doesn't matter..if you don't cover you drop...I wouldn't worry too much about any poll at all...they are just for fun and grins...trust me I know my personal poll isn't worth anything...LOL

[evebulldog01]

I guess this guy thinks Everman must be a pro tema or something. We're going to have to post cloose to 100 points in the rest of our games to make some of his so called margins of victory.

[bulldog65]

cntryguy35:
Bulldog 65 just what is your problem with Marlin? Just because they have lost 2 games? University (4A) And very good Burnet in OT. If not for an offsides on the kickoff Marlin probably would have won that. They had Burnet pinned at the 10 yard line and were called for offsides, Burnet returned the following kick for a touchdown. Now what is your problem?I don't have a problem with Marlin or Atlanta. I'm just trying to figure out how the Data Poll works.

[sinton66]

You can read the explanation on his homepage, but it went WAY over my feeble brain. I use it as a place to start from, then use my gut feel based on the teams I know something about.

[3ABirdMan]

Remember, it's not just the expected point spread in YOUR teams' game, it's your actual point spread vs. EVERYONE ELSE'S actual point spread. That is why you win by a large margin and don't move up. You can keep the same Power Rating ( 82.82 for example) and move DOWN compared to everyone else ( #4 to #8).

He has a new number this year, called "MR". Early in the season, the home page said the definition of "MR" would be listed later in the season. Either it wasn't, or I missed it! Did anyone catch any idea of what it is?

Since I have too much time on my hands, each week I copy the polls from 'Low, Datapoll, Collier-Sharp, and Texas Power Ratings into an Excel spreadsheet to save for posterity. It's kinda fun to go back and look at how you did each week compared to what the poll thought you would do, and how your Power rating moved accordingly.

Anybody heard anything from the Freeze Ratings? I check each week, and the site still has '01 data on it. I liked it because you could compare any classification school to another, 1A - 5A. The diffence in the power numbers of any 2 schools indicate the margin of expected victory in a game, allowing you to see how you should of done against those 4A teams you played in pre-season.

I know it's all just numbers someone made up, but come the end of the season, it's amazing at how close it comes to being reality.