Great Offense and Average Defense

[MesquiteFan]

Has there been a team that y'all can remember that have won the SC with a great offense and just an average defense?

Lovejoy has a great offense, in fact I don't really see any defense stopping them unless they just turn it over or have a lot of penalties, but their defense isn't dominate, or as dominate you would think a SC caliber team would be.

So has this ever happened or do you think it can happen?

[firstdown]

They can be stopped. We held that dominant offense to 14 points. You have to be balanced and good to win a State Championship.

stats for Argyle and Lovejoy game

L A

First downs 9 22

Rushing yards 33-129 39-208

Passing yards 167 185

Total yards 296 393

Passes 10-17-2 17-30-1

Fumbles-lost 2-1 0-0

[BaseballUmp]

Liberty Hill

[DDBooger]

Lake Travis' 1st state championship. They had a pretty average to good D. But they just put up a crap load of points.

[MesquiteFan]

Originally posted by firstdown
They can be stopped. We held that dominant offense to 14 points. You have to be balanced and good to win a State Championship.

stats for Argyle and Lovejoy game

L A

First downs 9 22

Rushing yards 33-129 39-208

Passing yards 167 185

Total yards 296 393

Passes 10-17-2 17-30-1

Fumbles-lost 2-1 0-0

Everything you said is true, but that was the first game of the year, a lot changes from that point to when the playoffs begin. If LJ was healthy, you never know what happens in the second half of that game.

[firstdown]

Originally posted by MesquiteFan
Everything you said is true, but that was the first game of the year, a lot changes from that point to when the playoffs begin. If LJ was healthy, you never know what happens in the second half of that game.

I totally agree, we are a much better team now then at the first game also. I think that most everyone can claim that. We left a lot of points on the field in the game against Lovejoy due to penalties and poor execution. I like to think we are better than that now. I would love to see a rematch. I personally believe we win again, but we won't play again until next year. Unless something crazy happens.

[Charlie47]

Originally posted by MesquiteFan
Everything you said is true, but that was the first game of the year, a lot changes from that point to when the playoffs begin. If LJ was healthy, you never know what happens in the second half of that game.

Right On!:clap: :eek: ;)

[Red&White_9x5]

Originally posted by BaseballUmp
Liberty Hill

I saw LH play a few times throughout their championship runs and I can say they easily had a "ABOVE" average defense

[MesquiteFan]

Originally posted by firstdown
I totally agree, we are a much better team now then at the first game also. I think that most everyone can claim that. We left a lot of points on the field in the game against Lovejoy due to penalties and poor execution. I like to think we are better than that now. I would love to see a rematch. I personally believe we win again, but we won't play again until next year. Unless something crazy happens.

I would agree that you guys have improved just as LJ has, and a rematch would probably be a great game. Just need Sanger to lose in district :D

[BILLYFRED0000]

Looking at LJ schedule the only highly ranked team they played was Argyle who is ranked roughly equal to Celina.
Next closest team is 2-4 prosper. I would say that the schedule is a little light on the powerhouses that play o and d except Argyle. Might want to dim them rose colored glasses till you see a highly ranked team play them.

[Charlie47]

Originally posted by BILLYFRED0000
Looking at LJ schedule the only highly ranked team they played was Argyle who is ranked roughly equal to Celina.
Next closest team is 2-4 prosper. I would say that the schedule is a little light on the powerhouses that play o and d except Argyle. Might want to dim them rose colored glasses till you see a highly ranked team play them.

Thet were powerhouses when they were scheduled, so was Abilene Wylie.;) :clap:

[BILLYFRED0000]

Originally posted by Charlie47
Thet were powerhouses when they were scheduled, so was Abilene Wylie.;) :clap:

That is not what I said. I said as the season unfolds none of the teams they have played are more than average except Argyle. This is real world not coulda shoulda. Wylie is still good but not powerhouse this year. Argyle still falls in the powerhouse category so far.
LJ is just out of that category with very good. And still improving.

[BILLYFRED0000]

And for the record their O is very good and their d is good. They do have a lot of weapons but do not fall into the top 100 in the state in O or D. By contrast
Argyle is 70 and 81 (massey). top 100 all classifications. Celina 51 O 172 D. Got to work on that d. AW 292 O 91 D.
AW has definetly got to improve on O to do anything. LJ is 105 176.

[BILLYFRED0000]

Just looking at the O from a statistical point of view Sanger And Celina are averaging over 500 yards per game of Offense. Lovejoy is at 393.
Points per game is Celina 50.9 and lovejoy 39.3

Celina is giving up 270 yards of O per game and LJ is at 309.

[kaorder1999]

Sulphur springs...gave up 50 in the state title game and won

[kaorder1999]

i believe they gave up over 20 points in every game that year they wont he state title except for one game...

[BILLYFRED0000]

Originally posted by kaorder1999
Sulphur springs...gave up 50 in the state title game and won

Yeah that was a crazy game to watch. More like a tennis match.

[Pick6]

Originally posted by BILLYFRED0000
I would say that the schedule is a little light on the powerhouses that play o and d except Argyle. Might want to dim them rose colored glasses till you see a highly ranked team play them.

Says the guy that worships Coach Duck-alot

[Pick6]

Originally posted by MesquiteFan
Has there been a team that y'all can remember that have won the SC with a great offense and just an average defense?

Lovejoy has a great offense, in fact I don't really see any defense stopping them unless they just turn it over or have a lot of penalties, but their defense isn't dominate, or as dominate you would think a SC caliber team would be.

So has this ever happened or do you think it can happen?

Kerrville Tivy this year.

[Charlie47]

Originally posted by BILLYFRED0000
That is not what I said. I said as the season unfolds none of the teams they have played are more than average except Argyle. This is real world not coulda shoulda. Wylie is still good but not powerhouse this year. Argyle still falls in the powerhouse category so far.
LJ is just out of that category with very good. And still improving.

They were all highlyrated when scheduled. There's no way you can no what a team will be before the games are played. Our schedule looked killer when scheduled!!:confused: :clap:

[MesquiteFan]

Originally posted by BILLYFRED0000
Just looking at the O from a statistical point of view Sanger And Celina are averaging over 500 yards per game of Offense. Lovejoy is at 393.
Points per game is Celina 50.9 and lovejoy 39.3

Celina is giving up 270 yards of O per game and LJ is at 309.

Stats like that can be so deceiving though. You have to take into account the opponents each team is playing and how long starters are playing. LJ's starters on O and D have been out of the game by the start of the 3rd quarter in all but 2 games this year so far. Although, I'm sure the same can be said about Celina.

[orange machine]

Originally posted by Pick6
Says the guy that worships Coach Duck-alot
Hey why don't you tell your home town Gunter Tigers to get a game with Celina or would they duck like Cohagan has done for years?

[MesquiteFan]

Originally posted by Charlie47
They were all highlyrated when scheduled. There's no way you can no what a team will be before the games are played. Our schedule looked killer when scheduled!!:confused: :clap:

Especially compared to last year when they played Sanger, Melissa, Anna, and Pottsboro.

Lovejoy almost had a chance to schedule Abilene Wylie, Brownwood, and Prosper right in a row, but decided to schedule HSAA instead of Brownwood.

[Pick6]

Originally posted by orange machine
Hey why don't you tell your home town Gunter Tigers to get a game with Celina or would they duck like Cohagan has done for years?

my hometown of gunter?? if u were half as smart as u think u are you'd still be considered "special". becoming a cop in tom bean must be the easiest thing to do.

[orange machine]

Well unless Celina or Lovejoy lay an egg in bi dist. the second round should be these two teams and I think whoever wins that game is the front runner for a SC.

[Charlie47]

Originally posted by MesquiteFan
Stats like that can be so deceiving though. You have to take into account the opponents each team is playing and how long starters are playing. LJ's starters on O and D have been out of the game by the start of the 3rd quarter in all but 2 games this year so far. Although, I'm sure the same can be said about Celina.

The points are now up to 40. Each week are improving every week, just like last year. This season, Michael has had knee and ankle injuries,
last night he was fully healed. We are now using a double QB set, working wonderfully!;)

[MesquiteFan]

Originally posted by orange machine
Well unless Celina or Lovejoy lay an egg in bi dist. the second round should be these two teams and I think whoever wins that game is the front runner for a SC.

Celina will probably see Sanger and Lovejoy is going to get A. Maceo Smith, I believe. (Can't remember if Smith or Madison is the D1 team from 12-3A).

Sanger might give Celina a good test with Dane Evans. Madison would give Lovejoy a huge test as they have great team speed. Smith would be an easier opponent but wouldn't help Lovejoy get very much better going deeper into postseason.

[orange machine]

Originally posted by Pick6
my hometown of gunter?? if u were half as smart as u think u are you'd still be considered "special". becoming a cop in tom bean must be the easiest thing to do.
Ok Pelley

[Pick6]

Originally posted by orange machine
Ok Pelley

who's pelley?

[Charlie47]

Originally posted by MesquiteFan
Celina will probably see Sanger and Lovejoy is going to get A. Maceo Smith, I believe. (Can't remember if Smith or Madison is the D1 team from 12-3A).

Sanger might give Celina a good test with Dane Evans. Madison would give Lovejoy a huge test as they have great team speed. Smith would be an easier opponent but wouldn't help Lovejoy get very much better going deeper into postseason.

Dallas paper is projecting, A Maceo Smith.:clap:

[orange machine]

Originally posted by MesquiteFan
Celina will probably see Sanger and Lovejoy is going to get A. Maceo Smith, I believe. (Can't remember if Smith or Madison is the D1 team from 12-3A).

Sanger might give Celina a good test with Dane Evans. Madison would give Lovejoy a huge test as they have great team speed. Smith would be an easier opponent but wouldn't help Lovejoy get very much better going deeper into postseason.
I think Celina Sanger would look a little like the Celina Pilot Point game except I don't think Sanger would put up as many points do to the Celina d getting better.

[gatordaze]

Originally posted by MesquiteFan
Stats like that can be so deceiving though. You have to take into account the opponents each team is playing and how long starters are playing. LJ's starters on O and D have been out of the game by the start of the 3rd quarter in all but 2 games this year so far. Although, I'm sure the same can be said about Celina.

That is great point and for that reason I tried to do an analysis based upon the starters. It is pretty fair to say that starters play the entire first half for the most part. The only reason that the starters would play further in the game is that the game was still in doubt.

As I have seen every Celina game, I have a good feel for when the 2's start impacting the outcome of the game. It seems that if at any point after the half when Celina is ahead by 14 points or more, the 2's start to filter in. Even if it is just a few, it affects chemstry and therefore is not representative of what the starters are capable of.

I took a look at the box scores and by this measure, Celina 1's, on average generate a score of 44-13 by the time the 2's come in. After that offensive production declines and the defense gives up a few points that the 1's do not. This seems fair as the opponent keep their starters in until the very end and it is in essence at that point it is their starters against our 2nd string. At any rate the numbers above do not include any points scored or given after half or after the 3rd in which the lead was 14 points or more.

As Lovejoy is most likely the strongest playoff opponent that Celina will face, I applied the same logic and Lovejoy's starter generate an average score of 26-11.

So based upon this Celina seems to have a much stronger offense and a slightly weaker defense. I recognize that many will say that Celina's strength of schedule is weaker so I took a look at Massey Ratings and the difference is that Lovejoys opponent's defense is actually 9% stronger than Celina's and that includes Argyle which of course beat LL.

Offensively, Celina has played against 5% better offenses than LL. For the most part and until LL plays Lonestar, the worst team in 3A, the schedules are comparible.

The ONLY categories that LL is better than Celina is in pass and scoring defense. They are no world beaters in these categories just better than Celina.

Unfortunately for LL, their O strength is the same as Celina's D strength and Celina's O strength is LL weakness. This looks to be a matchup that favors Celina in almost every way.

[Charlie47]

Originally posted by gatordaze
That is great point and for that reason I tried to do an analysis based upon the starters. It is pretty fair to say that starters play the entire first half for the most part. The only reason that the starters would play further in the game is that the game was still in doubt.

As I have seen every Celina game, I have a good feel for when the 2's start impacting the outcome of the game. It seems that if at any point after the half when Celina is ahead by 14 points or more, the 2's start to filter in. Even if it is just a few, it affects chemstry and therefore is not representative of what the starters are capable of.

I took a look at the box scores and by this measure, Celina 1's, on average generate a score of 44-13 by the time the 2's come in. After that offensive production declines and the defense gives up a few points that the 1's do not. This seems fair as the opponent keep their starters in until the very end and it is in essence at that point it is their starters against our 2nd string. At any rate the numbers above do not include any points scored or given after half or after the 3rd in which the lead was 14 points or more.

As Lovejoy is most likely the strongest playoff opponent that Celina will face, I applied the same logic and Lovejoy's starter generate an average score of 26-11.

So based upon this Celina seems to have a much stronger offense and a slightly weaker defense. I recognize that many will say that Celina's strength of schedule is weaker so I took a look at Massey Ratings and the difference is that Lovejoys opponent's defense is actually 9% stronger than Celina's and that includes Argyle which of course beat LL.

Offensively, Celina has played against 5% better offenses than LL. For the most part and until LL plays Lonestar, the worst team in 3A, the schedules are comparible.

The ONLY categories that LL is better than Celina is in pass and scoring defense. They are no world beaters in these categories just better than Celina.

Unfortunately for LL, their O strength is the same as Celina's D strength and Celina's O strength is LL weakness. This looks to be a matchup that favors Celina in almost every way.

Since ya'll have it all locked up, are ya'll wanting us to stay home?:eek:

[gatordaze]

Originally posted by Charlie47
Since ya'll have it all locked up, are ya'll wanting us to stay home?:eek:

Not at all, I love the games. If you have read my posts I tend to analyze numbers and matchups. I was simply trying to apply stats and logic to a bunch of 16-18 year olds which is pointless in itself.

Take no offense, I could have just as easily picked Sanger or Henderson for my comparison as I think that they are in our path as well. I actually think that the winner of our game has the inside track to the SC.

[Charlie47]

Originally posted by gatordaze
Not at all, I love the games. If you have read my posts I tend to analyze numbers and matchups. I was simply trying to apply stats and logic to a bunch of 16-18 year olds which is pointless in itself.

Take no offense, I could have just as easily picked Sanger or Henderson for my comparison as I think that they are in our path as well. I actually think that the winner of our game has the inside track to the SC.

Hi Gatordaze, I used to be just like you. I analyzed, I computed, etc.
This was back in Burnets really good teams. In other words, Coach Shipley, Jordan Shipley and Stephen McGee. Man you talk about stats,
Jordan made Jaxson look like a beginner. Just to let you know, through
2 years of chasing a championship and all my figuring and analyzing
I ended up with a disappointed heart and an autographed ball from Stephen. I'm afraid that's what you're going to get.:( :eek:

[gatordaze]

The difference is that I have already witnessed 2 State Championships and 1 victory in my 3+ years. I think this will be 3 of 4 as this team is as good if not better than the 2 SC's teams so far for me. I am real happy to be in D1 as it is relatively weak and a good matchup for these Bobcats.

How many State Championships did you say you expereinced with Burnet?

I won't be disappointed...

[Charlie47]

Originally posted by gatordaze
The difference is that I have already witnessed 2 State Championships and 1 victory in my 3+ years. I think this will be 3 of 4 as this team is as good if not better than the 2 SC's teams so far for me. I am real happy to be in D1 as it is relatively weak and a good matchup for these Bobcats.

How many State Championships did you say you expereinced with Burnet?

I won't be disappointed...

Will you be willing to admit you were wrong if it doesn't work out like you think?:eek: :( ;)

[gatordaze]

Originally posted by Charlie47
Will you be willing to admit you were wrong if it doesn't work out like you think?:eek: :( ;)

Sure, how bout you?

[Charlie47]

Originally posted by gatordaze
Sure, how bout you?

I haven't made any proclamations and never do!;) ;)

[gatordaze]

Originally posted by Charlie47
I haven't made any proclamations and never do!;) ;)

Nor have I, I simply said that statistically Celina appears to have an advantage and I think D1 lines up well for them as there is not a real strong run stopping D or a real strong pass O in D1. If Brownwood or even Argyle was D1 I would not have had the same opinion.

LL was overhyped and exposed early and has done nothing to change that. Celina was under estimated early and has done nothing but win handily. But figures lie and liers figure as they say!

The good news is that it WILL be played out as best I can tell.

[LH Panther Mom]

Originally posted by BaseballUmp
Liberty Hill
What's considered average? I'm guessing you might consider 2006 "average". :confused:

2006 PA - 20.87
2007 PA - 14.14