easttexas3a
12-03-2009, 10:02 PM
Saw this over on the ET site that everyone loves. Thought it was pretty good.
QUOTE (friendofsmoak @ Dec 3 2009, 02:50 PM)
I've been watching Gilmer Football a long time, and have seen every game this season (some live, some "Tivo-ed" through family members in Gilmer). I have also seen Cuero play several times this season...most recently "Live" in San Marcos two weeks ago. It seems that passionate fans on both sides of the fence on this BBS and others have a difficult time being objective. So for those of my fellow fans of 3A HS ball (not necessarily "Homers" of either side) who are scanning these boards trying to get a feel for "Is this game going to be worth braving the cold to come out and see on Saturday?"
Well, here's my stab at a FAIR & BALANCED assessment...
MATCH-UP OF TEAM STRENGTHS:
GILMER: The Buckeyes are the #1 team in the state for a reason. The tradition of excellence Coach Traylor and his staff have created runs to the bone with every kid suited up, and they are exceptionally well coached. Led by #10 and an incredibly talent and character rich group of seniors, Gilmer has an innate ability to apply pressure to opponents that is very difficult to withstand. First, Gilmer plays at a faster pace than any HS Football team I've ever seen. I have witnessed them on many occassions win the flip, and proceed to put up 28-35 point 1st quarters, and 45+ point first halves...forcing their opponents to play more snaps in a half than they normally would in an entire game. It is very difficult for ANY high school team, especially teams that have key players going both ways, to match the Buckeyes execution for a full 48 minutes. Gilmer will not hesitate to play 35+ kids quality snaps in any game. Their depth for a 3A team is astounding. Their "1s" are D1 calibur, and it shows. But their "2s, 3s and even 4s" are head and shoulders above most opponents best 11. So in this game, Gilmer can play to their strength by winning the flip,getting #10 in a rythm, scoring early and often, and playing at the blazing pace they have for years on end now for 48 minutes. APPLYING AND MAINTAINING PRESSURE on Cuero will be critical for Gilmer to come away with the win.
CUERO: The Gobblers are one of the smartest, most disciplined teams I have ever seen...INCLUDING Gilmer (who do a pretty good job themselves!). They simply do all the little things right. They have the right players in the right place in the right system. The offense is designed to play to their strengths, which Tyler Ardnt personifies. Cuero generally grabs their opponents and the game by the throat (as they did in San Marcos) and forces their opponent to play GOBBLER Football. The fact that they are so fundamentally sound at every position allows them to force mistakes, and when that happens, Cuero knows how to take advantage and make it show up on the scoreboard. Cuero has the ability to control the football with an above average running game, but they also have the firepower to dial up a big play in the air when they need it. They can limit an opponents opportunities to score and keep defenses honest with their talent at key positions. You can't "Key" any one Gobbler defensively without leaving yourself open somewhere else. When you do, Ardnt is plenty good enough to make you pay for it. That translates into Cuero being "In Every Game" they play, and gives them a chance to win no matter the calibur of athletes that line upagainst them. THEY NEVER, NEVER QUIT, and they keep coming like a relentless South Texas Hurricane. In short, they get 100% out of the athletes they have, 100% effectiveness out of the "Key Players", and 100% efficiency out of the schemes that they play.
MATCH-UP OF TEAM WEAKNESSES:
GILMER: The Buckeyes suffer late in the season from something they have no control over...a lack of District competition. Navasota, LE, Daingerfield and Kilgore are by no means "Weak". But if you look at each of those games (INCLUDING last week, despite the final score) you'll see that the Buckeyes are rarely if ever forced to play 4 quarters of football. In fact, as impressive as the stats are for the Buckeyes, take into account that 75% of the scoring opponents have managed have come late in the game against "Back-Ups", and the offense is generally in cruise control mode in the 4th (if not 3rd) quarter of most games and you'll know why their #1 ranking is absolutely for real. Now although this is exactly what allows the development of Gilmer's depth, it is also a hinderence in games like this one. If you look back at the last 5 losses the Buckeyes have suffered (not including LH, where a dislocated throwing thumb before the game made Gilmer 1 dimensional) you'll see every one of those come down to a lack of execution very late in the 4th quarter. Dating back to 2003, Gilmer losses to Atlanta, Canton, Daingerfield, LE and Carthage were all "In Doubt" until the very last minutes of the game. Aside from the 2008 Semi Final victory against AW, the Buckeyes have not really closed out a "Close Victory"...mainly because they are so rarely in that position. In a game like this with an opponent like Cuero, who play "NEVER QUIT" football and employ offensive and defensive schemes that allow them to stay in ANY game until the last moments, Gilmer is vulnerable the longer Cuero hangs around in my opinion.
CUERO: As strong a "TEAM" as Cuero has, they have not seen the pace, speed, or talent the Buckeyes will bring at them Saturday. In order to withstand that kind of pressure, Cuero will be forced to play as many as 6 "key players" on both sides of the ball. So as the game progresses, DEPTH will be an issue for The Gobblers. Athletically, Cuero's best 5 athletes have the potential to play on Saturdays, and 1 or 2 of those guys could play Big XII football. That's quite impressive. But they will be seriously out-manned ON PAPER on Saturday as Gilmer has 6 Big XII calibur players, with another nine who could play mid-major somewhere. (For the doubters who are likely justified in saying "No Way...that's an overstatement...NO 3A team has that much talent"...Well, I'll name them. Big XII: QB-Godfrey [Commitment TBD], CB-Holt [Mizzou commit], SS-Webb [Mizzou commit], OL-Jenkins [Okie State commit], LB-Green [Commitment TBD], Jr RB-Osborne. Others Mid-Major: Griffen, McClaren, Granville, Wilson, Miller, Miller, Castro, Turner, Godfrey...yes, there are two of them...). So for Cuero, their depth is going to be an issue as the game wears on, especially if Gilmer wins the flip, gets on their horse early and forces Cuero to throw the ball...thereby extending the game and giving Gilmer even more offensive stats.
KEYS TO THE GAME (in my opinion)
IF Gilmer wins, look for these things to occur:
Gilmer scores 50+
Gilmer forces Cuero into a "Shootout / Track Meet", running 60+ offensive plays
Gilmer is +1 in the Turnover Category
Gilmer holds Cuero running backs to 150 yards
Gilmer maintains possession for at least 20 minutes of the game
#10 shows up and has an "Above Average" game...I'm not sure he will allow Gilmer to lose
IF Cuero wins, look for these things occur:
Cureo holds Gilmer to 7 offensive possessions on the day
Cuero holds the ball for at least 35 minutes of the game
Cuero rushes for 250+ yards
Cuero scores 40 points
Cuero scores at least 1 TD on defense or special teams
Cuero is +2 in the turnover battle
For what it's worth, I think Gilmer beats Cuero 7 out of 10 times on a neutral field in "normal" weather conditions, with 3 of those being in the 65-35 score range, 3 of those being in the 42-35 range, and one being 42-41 range. I think 3 out of ten times, Cuero beats Gilmer 42-35, 38-35 and 42-41 in OT. For Saturday, I predict the following:
The winner will score at least one more point than the loser, the winner will play their best game of the season thus far, and the winner will be the DI-3A State Champion. With the cold weather and injury status of the Buckeyes right now, I'd say the odds are a "50/50 Toss-Up"...with the CROWD playing a large roll in the outcome.
But if I had to make a call, my sense is that Cuero will show up and play flawless football for 3 quarters and score 32 points, but will run out of gas with 6 players going both ways late into the game (I think that's exactly what happened to Navasota BTW). But I think Gilmer will find a way to score on special teams or on defense, and I see Gilmer winning in a nail-biter 42-32 with a late TD to put it away.
Just my opinion...I could be wrong...I could have no idea what I'm talking about...but we'll see come Saturday! All in all, I think you'll be VERY sorry if you miss this game! Good luck and health to all, and may the winner get a ring the following week...cause these are two of the best three 3A teams in Texas (Carthage being the other, with AW 4th)!
QUOTE (friendofsmoak @ Dec 3 2009, 02:50 PM)
I've been watching Gilmer Football a long time, and have seen every game this season (some live, some "Tivo-ed" through family members in Gilmer). I have also seen Cuero play several times this season...most recently "Live" in San Marcos two weeks ago. It seems that passionate fans on both sides of the fence on this BBS and others have a difficult time being objective. So for those of my fellow fans of 3A HS ball (not necessarily "Homers" of either side) who are scanning these boards trying to get a feel for "Is this game going to be worth braving the cold to come out and see on Saturday?"
Well, here's my stab at a FAIR & BALANCED assessment...
MATCH-UP OF TEAM STRENGTHS:
GILMER: The Buckeyes are the #1 team in the state for a reason. The tradition of excellence Coach Traylor and his staff have created runs to the bone with every kid suited up, and they are exceptionally well coached. Led by #10 and an incredibly talent and character rich group of seniors, Gilmer has an innate ability to apply pressure to opponents that is very difficult to withstand. First, Gilmer plays at a faster pace than any HS Football team I've ever seen. I have witnessed them on many occassions win the flip, and proceed to put up 28-35 point 1st quarters, and 45+ point first halves...forcing their opponents to play more snaps in a half than they normally would in an entire game. It is very difficult for ANY high school team, especially teams that have key players going both ways, to match the Buckeyes execution for a full 48 minutes. Gilmer will not hesitate to play 35+ kids quality snaps in any game. Their depth for a 3A team is astounding. Their "1s" are D1 calibur, and it shows. But their "2s, 3s and even 4s" are head and shoulders above most opponents best 11. So in this game, Gilmer can play to their strength by winning the flip,getting #10 in a rythm, scoring early and often, and playing at the blazing pace they have for years on end now for 48 minutes. APPLYING AND MAINTAINING PRESSURE on Cuero will be critical for Gilmer to come away with the win.
CUERO: The Gobblers are one of the smartest, most disciplined teams I have ever seen...INCLUDING Gilmer (who do a pretty good job themselves!). They simply do all the little things right. They have the right players in the right place in the right system. The offense is designed to play to their strengths, which Tyler Ardnt personifies. Cuero generally grabs their opponents and the game by the throat (as they did in San Marcos) and forces their opponent to play GOBBLER Football. The fact that they are so fundamentally sound at every position allows them to force mistakes, and when that happens, Cuero knows how to take advantage and make it show up on the scoreboard. Cuero has the ability to control the football with an above average running game, but they also have the firepower to dial up a big play in the air when they need it. They can limit an opponents opportunities to score and keep defenses honest with their talent at key positions. You can't "Key" any one Gobbler defensively without leaving yourself open somewhere else. When you do, Ardnt is plenty good enough to make you pay for it. That translates into Cuero being "In Every Game" they play, and gives them a chance to win no matter the calibur of athletes that line upagainst them. THEY NEVER, NEVER QUIT, and they keep coming like a relentless South Texas Hurricane. In short, they get 100% out of the athletes they have, 100% effectiveness out of the "Key Players", and 100% efficiency out of the schemes that they play.
MATCH-UP OF TEAM WEAKNESSES:
GILMER: The Buckeyes suffer late in the season from something they have no control over...a lack of District competition. Navasota, LE, Daingerfield and Kilgore are by no means "Weak". But if you look at each of those games (INCLUDING last week, despite the final score) you'll see that the Buckeyes are rarely if ever forced to play 4 quarters of football. In fact, as impressive as the stats are for the Buckeyes, take into account that 75% of the scoring opponents have managed have come late in the game against "Back-Ups", and the offense is generally in cruise control mode in the 4th (if not 3rd) quarter of most games and you'll know why their #1 ranking is absolutely for real. Now although this is exactly what allows the development of Gilmer's depth, it is also a hinderence in games like this one. If you look back at the last 5 losses the Buckeyes have suffered (not including LH, where a dislocated throwing thumb before the game made Gilmer 1 dimensional) you'll see every one of those come down to a lack of execution very late in the 4th quarter. Dating back to 2003, Gilmer losses to Atlanta, Canton, Daingerfield, LE and Carthage were all "In Doubt" until the very last minutes of the game. Aside from the 2008 Semi Final victory against AW, the Buckeyes have not really closed out a "Close Victory"...mainly because they are so rarely in that position. In a game like this with an opponent like Cuero, who play "NEVER QUIT" football and employ offensive and defensive schemes that allow them to stay in ANY game until the last moments, Gilmer is vulnerable the longer Cuero hangs around in my opinion.
CUERO: As strong a "TEAM" as Cuero has, they have not seen the pace, speed, or talent the Buckeyes will bring at them Saturday. In order to withstand that kind of pressure, Cuero will be forced to play as many as 6 "key players" on both sides of the ball. So as the game progresses, DEPTH will be an issue for The Gobblers. Athletically, Cuero's best 5 athletes have the potential to play on Saturdays, and 1 or 2 of those guys could play Big XII football. That's quite impressive. But they will be seriously out-manned ON PAPER on Saturday as Gilmer has 6 Big XII calibur players, with another nine who could play mid-major somewhere. (For the doubters who are likely justified in saying "No Way...that's an overstatement...NO 3A team has that much talent"...Well, I'll name them. Big XII: QB-Godfrey [Commitment TBD], CB-Holt [Mizzou commit], SS-Webb [Mizzou commit], OL-Jenkins [Okie State commit], LB-Green [Commitment TBD], Jr RB-Osborne. Others Mid-Major: Griffen, McClaren, Granville, Wilson, Miller, Miller, Castro, Turner, Godfrey...yes, there are two of them...). So for Cuero, their depth is going to be an issue as the game wears on, especially if Gilmer wins the flip, gets on their horse early and forces Cuero to throw the ball...thereby extending the game and giving Gilmer even more offensive stats.
KEYS TO THE GAME (in my opinion)
IF Gilmer wins, look for these things to occur:
Gilmer scores 50+
Gilmer forces Cuero into a "Shootout / Track Meet", running 60+ offensive plays
Gilmer is +1 in the Turnover Category
Gilmer holds Cuero running backs to 150 yards
Gilmer maintains possession for at least 20 minutes of the game
#10 shows up and has an "Above Average" game...I'm not sure he will allow Gilmer to lose
IF Cuero wins, look for these things occur:
Cureo holds Gilmer to 7 offensive possessions on the day
Cuero holds the ball for at least 35 minutes of the game
Cuero rushes for 250+ yards
Cuero scores 40 points
Cuero scores at least 1 TD on defense or special teams
Cuero is +2 in the turnover battle
For what it's worth, I think Gilmer beats Cuero 7 out of 10 times on a neutral field in "normal" weather conditions, with 3 of those being in the 65-35 score range, 3 of those being in the 42-35 range, and one being 42-41 range. I think 3 out of ten times, Cuero beats Gilmer 42-35, 38-35 and 42-41 in OT. For Saturday, I predict the following:
The winner will score at least one more point than the loser, the winner will play their best game of the season thus far, and the winner will be the DI-3A State Champion. With the cold weather and injury status of the Buckeyes right now, I'd say the odds are a "50/50 Toss-Up"...with the CROWD playing a large roll in the outcome.
But if I had to make a call, my sense is that Cuero will show up and play flawless football for 3 quarters and score 32 points, but will run out of gas with 6 players going both ways late into the game (I think that's exactly what happened to Navasota BTW). But I think Gilmer will find a way to score on special teams or on defense, and I see Gilmer winning in a nail-biter 42-32 with a late TD to put it away.
Just my opinion...I could be wrong...I could have no idea what I'm talking about...but we'll see come Saturday! All in all, I think you'll be VERY sorry if you miss this game! Good luck and health to all, and may the winner get a ring the following week...cause these are two of the best three 3A teams in Texas (Carthage being the other, with AW 4th)!